Oct 31, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) looks on in the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Week 9 NFL Picks – 49ers, Rams, Bills

We’ll be here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week throughout the 2021 regular season. Here are 14 more for Week 9.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel and Draft Kings as of mid-week, check their site for line moves and super bonus specials for new customers.

2021 RECORD: 57-64-1

NEW YORK JETS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10.5): JETS

The Colts are still banged up and potentially crushed by a brutal overtime loss to a division rival. Meanwhile, the Jets are fighting coming off October wins over the division-leading Titans and Bengals. They’ll keep this close.

ATLANTA FALCONS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-5.5): FALCONS

I think the Saints have been playing over their heads. They’re still quite shorthanded and now they’re without starting quarterback Jameis Winston as well. A familiar foe will stick around in what is essentially a must-win game for them.

DENVER BRONCOS AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-9): COWBOYS

I’m not confident the Broncos will have a lot left in them following the front office’s decision to throw in the towel at the trade deadline, and it’s not as though they were playing well anyway. Now they run into the Cowboys with Dak Prescott likely back. On the road, I’m not sure they can put up a fight.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3.5) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS: PATRIOTS

The hook scares me with a rookie quarterback on the road here, but Bill Belichick has a lot of fun dominating Sam Darnold and the Panthers offense is practically useless right now. I’d try to buy half a point before betting big on New England.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6): RAVENS

Baltimore knows how to take care of business as a medium-to-large favorite, and the Vikings might be out of gas after a deflating Sunday night loss to the Prescott-less Cowboys. Throw in Danielle Hunter’s injury and the fact the Ravens have had two weeks to prepare and this won’t be close.

CLEVELAND BROWNS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-2.5): BROWNS

The Browns are in worse shape than the Bengals, but I still trust them more after watching a novice Cincinnati team slip up against the Jets. Cleveland is still a far superior team in terms of overall talent and DVOA. They’ll find a way to grind this out.

BUFFALO BILLS (-14) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: BILLS

The Bills have five wins this season, all by at least 15 points. Why the hell would anyone expect them to win by any less than that total against one of the league’s worst teams? This should be a blowout.

HOUSTON TEXANS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6.5): DOLPHINS

I’d stay away from this one because both teams are pretty down and out at 1-7 and it’s hard to feel confident in either. That said, the Texans are much worse on paper and have fallen by double-digit margins in six of their last seven games. No way I’m taking just 6.5 points with them on the road.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-3) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: GIANTS

Eventually, the turmoil surrounding the Raiders will catch up with them. That could be the case here, especially with the Giants battling hard with nothing to lose. I’ll take the points with the home squad.

LA CHARGERS (-2) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: CHARGERS

This line presents value for those who figure the talented Chargers are in for a “get right game” against a pretty weak Eagles squad that played above its head last week. Against teams with winning records, the Eagles are 0-3 with an average margin of defeat of 12.3 points. This is practically a pick’em, and a no-brainer as a result.

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-8): PACKERS

Is Aaron Rodgers worth eight points? This was essentially a pick’em before the reigning MVP was ruled out for Green Bay. But I think the Packers still have the talent elsewhere to hang with a Chiefs team in shambles on both sides of the ball. If Kansas City needs luck to beat the Giants at home, it is unlikely to beat a Jordan Love-led Green Bay squad by more than a touchdown.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-1) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 49ERS

San Francisco is putting it together, while the Cardinals are in rough injury shape. I think the 49ers will have enough fight in them to pull this out at home.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-7.5): RAMS

The Rams should be fired up for a prime-time home game with Von Miller making his debut, and the Titans are too much of a gamble without Derrick Henry. I’d prefer to get -7 or lower, but Los Angeles is still the pick.

CHICAGO BEARS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6): STEELERS

Justin Fields has taken more sacks than any quarterback in football, and the Steelers have one of the fiercest defensive fronts in the NFL. They’re competing now, while the Bears are spiralling. In Pittsburgh, I don’t see that changing Monday night.

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Archived Week 9 NFL picks article from Nov. 9, 2020

We’ll be here to guide you with weekly picks against the spread every week, and we’re still well above .500 approaching the midway pole. Here are 13* fresh takes for Week 9, with odds coming from FanDuel and Draft Kings sportsbooks.

* There’s no line for Sunday’s Detroit Lions-Minnesota Vikings game due to potential issues related to COVID-19.

2020 RECORD: 63-50-3

Check out full matchup reports with stat breakdowns and trends and live NFL betting lines on every game as well.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: PACKERS

Thursday Night Football

Ideally you took the Packers when they were only laying a couple points earlier in the week. Since, it’s all hit the fan for the 49ers from an injury and COVID-19 standpoint. The Niners won’t have the firepower to take advantage of Green Bay’s vulnerable run defense and the Packers will run away here, in spite of what Trend Dummy says about Green Bay being terrible in the month of November.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: COLTS

I’m quite concerned about the impact star left tackle Ronnie Stanley’s injury could have on the Ravens, while the Colts are rolling again with a healthy Darius Leonard. I’ll certainly take points with the home team.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5): CHIEFS

The Chiefs have won their last two games by 26-plus points and look close to unstoppable right now, while the Panthers have come back to earth after a strong start. Christian McCaffrey is worth consideration against a weak run defense, but I’m not sure how healthy he’ll be.

CHICAGO BEARS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5): BEARS

The Titans rarely win big and the Bears rarely lose big. Nick Foles is also coming off a strong performance and facing a beatable pass defense. This should be decided by a field goal.

DENVER BRONCOS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5): BRONCOS

Drew Lock and the Broncos finally caught fire last week and I don’t trust the Falcons enough to lay more than a field goal with them, even at home. Atlanta’s pass defense is weak and shorthanded. The Broncos might win outright. Atlanta never covers non-conference games.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-6.5) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: TEXANS

Deshaun Watson has a 117.3 passer rating the last five weeks and Jacksonville has maybe the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Jags also won’t have quarterback Gardner Minshew II. They were creamed by Houston a few weeks ago and there’s little reason to expect a different result here.

NEW YORK GIANTS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-2.5): WASHINGTON

Washington’s fierce defense is coming off a bye and getting healthier, while the Giants are working on short rest. I don’t think a mistake-prone Daniel Jones has much of a chance in this matchup, and the WFT is inexplicably giving up less than a field goal.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-3) AT BUFFALO BILLS: SEAHAWKS

After a 4-0 start, the Bills have looked downright mediocre with Josh Allen putting up ugly numbers the last four weeks. Meanwhile, the Seahawks bounced back with an impressive win last week and could get Jamal Adams back Sunday. Seattle might blow the Bills out so I’ll gladly lay the three points.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-1): RAIDERS

I wouldn’t touch this game as these teams are banged up and untrustworthy. That said, in an office pool I’m taking the team with the much better record with a line that is basically a pick’em.

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-4): CARDINALS

I’m not buying the Dolphins’ top-rated scoring defense, and Tua Tagovailoa didn’t do much of anything in his debut as a starter. Miami is good, but Arizona is a hell of a lot better and is coming off a bye at home. This line should be a lot higher.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-14) AT DALLAS COWBOYS: STEELERS

How could anyone take the Cowboys? They look totally defeated and have been outscored 86-22 in their last three games. That opportunistic Pittsburgh defense should have a field day against whoever starts under center for Dallas and a depleted offensive line.

If you are freaked about historical trends, read Trend Dummy’s double digit road favorite analysis and his fear-mongering over Pittsburgh 1-12 ATS mark since 1980 as DD road chalk.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4): SAINTS

The Saints might get Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders back, and they beat Tampa Bay by a double-digit margin in September. A lot has changed since then for the Bucs, but this still has the look of a field-goal game. Read my full betting report on this game.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) AT NEW YORK JETS: PATRIOTS

The Pats are bad but the Jets are one of the worst teams in NFL history. Bill Belichick has had extra time to prepare for Sam Darnold, who still has to deal with a decent pass defense. Why is New England laying just seven points?

Brad Gagnon has been passionate about both sports and mass media since he was in diapers -- a passion that won't die until he's in them again. He was a lead contributor to an earlier incarnation of NationalFootballPost.com and was happy to return when new management revived the brand in 2020. Based in Toronto, he's covered the NFL since 2008 and has been a national NFL writer at Bleacher Report since 2012. He despises all 32 NFL teams equally but remains a fan of the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors. He can be reached at Brad@NationalFootballPost.com

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