Prediction Machine

PPR Value Picks (08/18/15)

Aug 18, 2015 • 3:00 am

Last week we provided our picks for the 2015 Fantasy Sleepers, Busts and Breakout Stars. Great reads for players in standard leagues but what about a little help for those in PPR (points-per-reception) leagues?

You've asked and we have delivered.

In the table below are PredictionMachine.com's top 150 fantasy players in PPR leagues. PredictionMachine.com's rankings have been compared to a composite ranking from ESPN and Yahoo. A positive number in the Difference column indicates players PredictionMachine likes (sleepers) more than the composite rank and a negative number suggests players that have the potential to not live up to their average draft position.

Note: Be sure to use the Fantasy Football Draft Machine for an additional edge in all of your drafts. Those looking for a daily fantasy edge should check out our optimal lineups and projections.

Happy drafting!

Value Picks

Travis Kelce
2015 projections: 77.1 receptions, 1,023.4 passing yards, 7.6 TDs
2015 Composite: 3rd tight end, 48th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 2nd tight end, 29th overall

The concern with Kelce is the Chiefs offense. Andy Reid takes a conservative approach in Kansas City with Alex Smith under center. Those fears have depressed Kelce's average draft position. We are projecting the Chiefs' tight end to finish with over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns; both would rank in the top-25 among all receivers last year. There is a lot of value to be had with Kelce, currently being drafted late in the fifth round.

Shane Vereen
2015 projections: 61.5 receptions, 439.1 rushing yards, 585.8 receiving yards, 8.4 TDs
2015 Composite: 28th running back, 67th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 19th running back, 38th overall

In an offense with Odell Beckham Jr., everyone else is an afterthought. Vereen is flying under the radar. Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams are slated to get most of the rushing attempts. However, we project Vereen to have career highs in receptions, total yards and total touchdowns. If you want to wait on running backs, the Giants' new third down back is one to target in the middle rounds of your draft.

Atlanta Running Backs
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will split touches in Atlanta but that is fine with us. Each possess a unique skill set that we project will lead to over a 1,000 total yards for both players. Neither back is likely to become a breakout star but you win your drafts in the middle rounds. Freeman and Coleman are two backs that could be solid flex plays or great bye week fill-ins.

High Prices

Odell Beckham Jr.
2015 projections: 74.8 receptions, 1,172.1 receiving yards, 8.5 TDs
2015 Composite: 4th receiver, 8th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 16th receiver, 35th overall

Allow me to rain on the Odell Beckham is the “Best Receiver in the World” parade. Over a ten-game stretch to finish the season Beckham averaged eight catches, 123 yards and a touchdown per game. He became the first player in league history to have nine straight games with at least 90-yards receiving. ODB is no fluke but his performance is unsustainable. We are projecting Beckham to have fewer yards and touchdowns in 2015 than he did in 12 games a season ago.

Brandin Cooks
2015 projections: 78.6 receptions, 893.8 receiving yards, 7.2 TDs
2015 Composite: 13th receiver, 30th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 26th receiver, 69th overall

If you like Cooks, your thought process goes something like this: with Jimmy Graham in Seattle and Kenny Stills in Miami, Cooks is going to be Drew Brees' number one target. That is all true and we don't argue that Cooks is a top-25 receiver but that is a steep price to pay when you can find the same production a few rounds later.

Kelvin Benjamin
2015 projections: 69.7 receptions, 1,002.6 receiving yards, 8.7 TDs
2015 Composite: 20th receiver, 45th overall
2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 29th receiver, 76th overall

The second year player is locked in as Carolina's top receiver and Cam Newton's favorite target. That sounds good but does not necessarily translate to great production. His projections look similar to the numbers he posted last season and his 68.7 receptions rank 39th among all players. Not what you want in a PPR league.

PPR Value Picks

1	Le'Veon Bell	RB	PIT	1	0
2	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	4	2
3	Jamaal Charles	RB	KC	2	-1
4	Eddie Lacy	RB	GB	5	1
5	Adrian Peterson	RB	MIN	3	-2
6	Rob Gronkowski	TE	NE	11	5
7	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	9	2
8	Marshawn Lynch	RB	SEA	12	4
9	Calvin Johnson	WR	DET	16	7
10	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	6	-4
11	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF	21	10
12	C.J. Anderson	RB	DEN	14	2
13	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	7	-6
14	DeMarco Murray	RB	PHI	19	5
15	Matt Forte	RB	CHI	10	-5
16	A.J. Green	WR	CIN	15	-1
17	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	25	8
18	Jeremy Hill	RB	CIN	23	5
19	Mike Evans	WR	TB	22	3
20	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI	20	0
21	Jordy Nelson	WR	GB	18	-3
22	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	28	6
23	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	33	10
24	Lamar Miller	RB	MIA	29	5
25	Justin Forsett	RB	BAL	13	-12
26	Jordan Matthews	WR	PHI	31	5
27	Latavius Murray	RB	OAK	37	10
28	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	36	8
29	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	48	19
30	T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	24	-6
31	Randall Cobb	WR	GB	17	-14
32	Frank Gore	RB	IND	32	0
33	Jimmy Graham	TE	SEA	46	13
34	Alfred Morris	RB	WAS	51	17
35	Odell Beckham	WR	NYG	8	-27
36	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	34	-2
37	Greg Olsen	TE	CAR	54	17
38	Shane Vereen	RB	NYG	67	29
39	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	58	19
40	Golden Tate	WR	DET	43	3
41	T.J. Yeldon	RB	JAC	62	21
42	Jonathan Stewart	RB	CAR	41	-1
43	Brandon Marshall	WR	NYJ	55	12
44	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	87	43
45	Andre Ellington	RB	ARI	27	-18
46	Joseph Randle	RB	DAL	44	-2
47	Melvin Gordon	RB	SD	40	-7
48	Chris Ivory	RB	NYJ	73	25
49	Martellus Bennett	TE	CHI	63	14
50	Todd Gurley	RB	STL	64	14
51	Vincent Jackson	WR	TB	76	25
52	Kendall Wright	WR	TEN	94	42
53	Delanie Walker	TE	TEN	90	37
54	Amari Cooper	WR	OAK	83	29
56	Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	74	18
57	Jeremy Maclin	WR	KC	59	2
58	Ladarius Green	TE	SD	141	83
59	C.J. Spiller	RB	NO	26	-33
60	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	42	-18
61	Carlos Hyde	RB	SF	50	-11
62	Andre Johnson	WR	IND	35	-27
63	Tony Romo	QB	DAL	69	6
64	Ameer Abdullah	RB	DET	39	-25
65	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	72	7
66	Tevin Coleman	RB	ATL	107	41
67	Charles Johnson	WR	MIN	92	25
68	Eric Decker	WR	NYJ	71	3
69	Brandin Cooks	WR	NO	30	-39
70	Jordan Cameron	TE	MIA	95	25
71	DeSean Jackson	WR	WAS	61	-10
72	Jason Witten	TE	DAL	89	17
73	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	56	-17
74	Rashad Jennings	RB	NYG	82	8
75	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	114	39
76	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	CAR	45	-31
77	LeGarrette Blount	RB	NE	65	-12
78	Keenan Allen	WR	SD	52	-26
79	John Brown	WR	ARI	86	7
80	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	TB	104	24
81	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	38	-43
82	Heath Miller	TE	PIT	134	52
83	Giovani Bernard	RB	CIN	53	-30
84	Tre Mason	RB	STL	111	27
85	Sammy Watkins	WR	BUF	75	-10
86	Steve Smith	WR	BAL	70	-16
87	Martavis Bryant	WR	PIT	78	-9
88	Darren Sproles	RB	PHI	154	66
89	Bishop Sankey	RB	TEN	115	26
90	Peyton Manning	QB	DEN	57	-33
91	Danny Woodhead	RB	SD	85	-6
92	Alfred Blue	RB	HOU	122	30
93	Anquan Boldin	WR	SF	66	-27
94	Mike Wallace	WR	MIN	81	-13
95	Brandon LaFell	WR	NE	77	-18
96	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	84	-12
97	Joique Bell	RB	DET	100	3
98	Marques Colston	WR	NO	91	-7
99	Allen Robinson	WR	JAC	47	-52
100	Ryan Tannehill	QB	MIA	98	-2
101	Michael Floyd	WR	ARI	121	20
102	Nelson Agholor	WR	PHI	131	29
103	Drew Brees	QB	NO	49	-54
104	Daniel Herron	RB	IND	182	78
105	Vernon Davis	TE	SF	142	37
106	Julius Thomas	TE	JAC	99	-7
108	Tyler Eifert	TE	CIN	97	-11
109	Duke Johnson	RB	CLE	110	1
110	Joe Flacco	QB	BAL	152	42
111	Michael Crabtree	WR	OAK	144	33
112	Charles Sims	RB	TB	129	17
113	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	68	-45
114	Doug Martin	RB	TB	80	-34
115	Terrance Williams	WR	DAL	148	33
117	Rueben Randle	WR	NYG	140	23
118	Kyle Rudolph	TE	MIN	113	-5
120	Ryan Mathews	RB	PHI	112	-8
121	Roddy White	WR	ATL	60	-61
122	DeAngelo Williams	RB	PIT	175	53
123	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	79	-44
124	Arian Foster	RB	HOU	105	-19
125	David Johnson	RB	ARI	173	48
126	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	116	-10
127	Andre Williams	RB	NYG	166	39
128	Torrey Smith	WR	SF	101	-27
129	Isaiah Crowell	RB	CLE	102	-27
130	Reggie Bush	RB	SF	88	-42
131	Davante Adams	WR	GB	117	-14
132	Stevie Johnson	WR	SD	123	-9
133	Brian Quick	WR	STL	147	14
134	Jordan Reed	TE	WAS	127	-7
135	Philip Rivers	QB	SD	109	-26
136	Dwayne Bowe	WR	CLE	150	14
138	Donte Moncrief	WR	IND	170	32
139	Andrew Hawkins	WR	CLE	172	33
140	Jared Cook	TE	STL	N/A	N/A
141	Montee Ball	RB	DEN	N/A	N/A
142	Stedman Bailey	WR	STL	188	46
143	Kenny Britt	WR	STL	185	42
144	Roy Helu	RB	OAK	137	-7
145	Charles Clay	TE	BUF	143	-2
146	Brian Hartline	WR	CLE	N/A	N/A
147	Theo Riddick	RB	DET	N/A	N/A
148	Nick Toon	WR	NO	N/A	N/A
149	Breshad Perriman	WR	BAL	161	12
150	Robert Turbin	RB	SEA	N/A	N/A