Tag: Best bets

Sep 26, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) is tackled short of the end zone by San Francisco 49ers defensive back Dontae Johnson (27) after making a catch in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Playoff parlay play: Packers vs 49ers

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Saturday night NFC playoffs bring an intriguing matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the top seed in the conference, the Green Bay Packers.

Blustery Green Bay adds an entertaining backdrop for a matchup with clear value on both sides. There appears to be an offensive edge for each offense, which is fueling our Same Game Parlay pick for the game. This particular parlay is constructed on DraftKings.

49ers vs Packers SGP: +160 on DK

Before we break down each of the legs of this parlay, let’s look at it on the whole.

The SGP:
–Davante Adams over 79.5 receiving yards
–Elijah Mitchell over 64.5 rushing yards
–Over 37.5 total points

Adams and Mitchell are my favorite options in this game from a prop perspective. We take some alternative lines lower than their standard over/under.

As we’ll get to in a moment, both offenses should conceivably have chances to move the ball and score, so we take the lowest total available for us to bet to bump the odds up.

–Davante Adams over 79.5 receiving yards
The first leg of this +160 parlay is the Packers star receiver, Davante Adams. The 49ers have really struggled slowing down top receivers lately, with 14 of the last 18 hitting their props when facing this San Fran defense.

His straight over/under for receiving yards is currently 94.5. We’ll buy 15 yards for the SGP. Adams has 100+ receiving yards in five of his last seven games, and had 132 against the 49ers earlier this season.

Rodgers force-feeds Adams, seeing double-digit targets in half of his games this season. Considering San Francisco allows the tenth-most receiving yards per game to WRs, we’ll trust the best pass-catcher on Green Bay to have a big game.

–Elijah Mitchell over 64.5 rushing yards
We have another alternative line for the primary running back of the 49ers. Mitchell has quietly seen some of the steadiest volume you’ll see in the entire NFL, with 21 or more carries in six straight games, going for 27 last week.

Not only does he have the attempts, but he has the production. Mitchell has gone over this 64.5 total in six straight and 9 of his 12 games this season.

Green Bay doesn’t have as good of a run defense as you may think. Only one team allows a higher yards per rush average than the Packers.

The key here is the game staying close early. The 49ers have shown they prefer to run the football, and they’ll be aiming to establish their will early on in this game.

Mitchell will get the work we need to hit this over, as long as the game stays close.

–Over 37.5 points
The over is set at 47.5 and we are bringing it down 10 points to finish off the parlay. I think this game could just go over, so to get 10 points less is a gift.

We’ve stressed the offensive advantages for both teams.

Assuming they capitalize on these areas of weakness as we expect, points should follow.

These teams met back in Week 3, with Green Bay winning 30-28. That’s 58 points there, 21 more than the total we need in this parlay.

That’s it for this simple SGP, you could add some touchdown scorers or bump up the yardage props or total for a better payout. I prefer the safer angle, and +160 odds can help build your bankroll.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

Jan 15, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs onto the field prior to the game against the Las Vegas Raiders in an AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Playoff parlay play: Titans vs. Bengals

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The first divisional round game this weekend is the Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans on Saturday afternoon.

This has the makings to be a great game. On one hand we have Joe Burrow, taking that leap to the next tier of great quarterbacks, aided by an elite group of receivers.

On the other, the top-seeded Titans, who don’t have the respect you may expect for a No. 1 seed. Star running back Derrick Henry is officially active after fracturing his foot in Week 8, a huge jolt for this offense.

We have a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for the game based on our expected game flow. Consider this option, or add legs that stick out to you for your own SGP. This particular parlay is constructed using odds from FanDuel.

Bengals vs Titans SGP: +213 on FD

Before we break down each of the legs of this parlay, let’s look at it on the whole.

The SGP:
–Derrick Henry TD

–Joe Burrow 250+ passing yards

–Cincinnati Bengals +10.5

At +213, we need just three legs for this to hit. You could add more, such as Derrick Henry’s rushing yards or a yardage over for a Bengals’ receiver, both of which are solid options in this game. I’m aiming for simplicity when hoping to hit these parlays and limiting to three legs.

Derrick Henry TD
Henry to find the end zone – something he has certainly displayed a knack for – seems logical. In eight games this season, Henry scored 10 times.

The Bengals rushing defense isn’t necessarily a major strength, and reports suggest Henry will be the starter and handle his full workload.

I tend to gravitate toward the best players in playoff games. This is the third straight year Tennessee finds themself in the postseason. Henry was stifled last year, with the Titans losing their lone game.

In 2019, when this team made a run to the AFC Championship Game, Henry ran for 148.7 yards per game and scored twice.

The Titans know how important Henry is to their success, and he’ll surely get the football should they get in the red zone.

Joe Burrow 250+ Passing Yards
This is an alternative line for Burrow’s passing over, with his standard over/under set at 278.5 yards.

We buy 29 extra yards in this scenario to give ourselves some breathing room, but I believe Burrow is in for a monster game.

Tennessee’s run defense is quite stout while their secondary has had issues slowing down receivers all season.

Burrow is averaging nearly 40 passes per game in his past three games, and with a run game potentially shut down, he’ll have to continue his attack through the air.

This Cincinnati offense is well-equipped to take advantage of a struggling Titans secondary. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd all have an opportunity for a big game, and instead of choosing one of them, we take the quarterback.

Burrow has thrown for 250-plus passing yards in four of his last six games. In Weeks 17 and 18, Burrow threw for 525 and 446 yards. This offense is explosive.

Bengals +10.5
The spread is Cincinnati +3.5, so we’re buying an extra touchdown to bring this SGP home.

I do think Cincinnati has a legitimate chance to win this game. As mentioned, the Titans are going to have issues slowing down this passing game, so Burrow and company can put points on the board.

The Bengals have lost only two games by more than three points this season. That shows me a team that keeps games close, so to get the spread at 10.5 is some security in a reasonable SGP.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

NFL Win Totals Best Bets With Research

Posted on | by Jacob Kornhauser

There is no such thing as a sure bet when it comes to sports gambling. After sorting through a decade of U/O win data, though, we have a few that are as close as you’ll get. First, it’s important to point out that the biggest choice you face for the 2018 NFL season isn’t what to bet, it’s which to bet.

By that, we mean to say that identifying the few teams you think are most likely to either go over or under their win projection is the most efficient way to go. Don’t bet on every single team. If you try to guess the U/O on all 32 NFL teams this season, you’d be lucky to break even.

However, if you educate yourself on the select few teams you’re really confident in, you could make out quite nicely. After combing through teams who, over the last 10 seasons, have over or underachieved consistently, we have a few bets that make the most sense in 2018. We in fact, have just four “best bets” for U/O win totals in the 2018 NFL season.

Our best bets to exceed their win projections are:

Atlanta Falcons – 9

Denver Broncos – 7

 

Our best bets to fall below their win projections are:

Los Angeles Chargers – 9.5

New York Giants – 7

 

If you’ve read our other two articles talking about the biggest over and underachievers in the NFL over the last 10 seasons, you’ll remember the Falcons and Broncos consistently outperform their projections. There’s reason to believe they’ll do so again this season.

Over: Atlanta – 9

Atlanta plays in a tough division, so getting to nine wins won’t be easy, but their divisional foes face a tougher road. The division-rival Saints have the second-toughest schedule in football based on 2017 team records. Tampa Bay, who will be without QB Jameis Winston for the first four games of the regular season, has the fourth toughest road.

The Panthers and Falcons have equally tough schedules, ranking No. 12 and 13 respectively. A key reason the win total of nine provides great value is that the Falcons could finish at 9-7 and push (earning you your money back). It’s hard to imagine a world where Atlanta finishes with just eight wins unless a key player suffers a major injury.

Over: Denver – 7

Denver seems like an even better bet than the Falcons for a couple reasons. To start, their status as an overachiever was diminished by the fact they greatly underachieved last season. Without 2017 in the 10-year data set, they would have been among the top three overachieving teams in all of football.

Why did they underachieve last year? The simple answer is quarterback play. This offseason,
they acquired Case Keenum, who helped lead the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game last
year. He is not an All-Pro, but he is a significant upgrade over Brock Osweiler/Trevor Siemian at the most important position in sports.

Denver has a defense strong enough to keep them in most games and now they have a gunslinger
who can help them win a few close games they didn’t a season ago.

Add to that the fact the Chiefs will be playing with a rookie quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and
the Raiders will be adjusting to life under new head coach Jon Gruden, and there’s reason to
believe the Broncos may reign supreme in the AFC West once again. The one team standing in their way is Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Speaking of them…

Under: Chargers – 9.5

Oddsmakers love the Chargers this season. They have the Chargers at a 9.5 win projection, which seems high, especially given their 10-year trend of underachieving relative to their win projections.

The Chargers haven’t won more than nine games since 2009 when they won the AFC West with 13 victories. However, they’ve won exactly nine games four times in that span, including last year.
The Chargers were one of the hottest teams in football to end the season, but we’ve seen this
from them before. They’re a team that starts incredibly slow and finishes strong. With an
improved Broncos team in the division, it’s just hard to bank on L.A. winning 10 games this year.

Under: Giants – 7

Finally, there are the Giants, the perennial beneficiaries of East Coast bias. Somehow, this team
that went 3-13 and didn’t significantly improve, is projected at seven wins. Yes, they added
Saquon Barkley to their backfield and Odell Beckham will be back from injury, but Eli Manning struggled mightily last year so Barkley could face a lot of eight-man fronts. Remember when that happened to Todd Gurley in his sophomore NFL campaign? He really struggled.

In a division that generally feasts on itself and, at times, has featured four teams in the 6-9 win
range, the Giants seem to be the worst team of the four. They also have the eighth hardest
schedule in football and it really is hard to see them going at least 8-8 to win you an overbet.
Just like the Falcons are good value, because they can earn you your money back with a 9-7 season, the Giants are good value because they can overachieve at 7-9 and you would still only
push. If they play anything below that level, which is very possible, then you’re in the green.

The Prop Stop Podcast – Episode #1 – Introduction

Posted on | by The Prop Stop Podcast

The Prop Stop Podcast finds some of the best value props each week in the NFL and College Football. It’s your guide to help cut through the clutter and find the best bets possible. This episode is just a short introduction then gets right into NFL passing yards, college football win totals and a longshot pick.

This week’s value picks from williamhill.us:

NFL 2018 Most Passing Yards
1) Wentz (18/1)
2) Ryan (12/1)
3) Brady (4/1) (maybe)

College FB Win Totals
UCLA OVER 5 (-170)

LONGSHOT SPECIAL
Virginia to Win ACC (200/1)

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