Tag: Betting

Oct 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Week 13 MNF: Broncos-Browns Preview, Props & Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Denver returns from a bye week for a visit from the Cleveland Browns, who are back in front of a national audience to wrap up Week 13 on Monday night.

The Broncos (7-5) can keep themselves squarely in the wild-card picture with a victory Monday before Denver dips into the bye week.

Cleveland is without left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (knee), safety Juan Thornhill (calf) and wide receiver Cedric Tillman (concussion) have all been ruled out.

That means another test of the Browns’ depth, with defensive lineman Sam Kamara (head) and cornerback Myles Harden (tibia) also set to miss the game.

For the Broncos, only cornerback Riley Moss is their only player ruled out on the injury report.

Can the Browns overcome the injuries in enemy territory on the road?

–Misleading box score in Browns’ recent victory
Cleveland gifted Pittsburgh three turnovers in Week 12, yet the Steelers still couldn’t take advantage and the AFC North leaders lost 24-19 in further proof Thursday division games are Mike Tomlin’s weakness.

Pittsburgh even won the time-of-possession battle, controlling the ball for 35 minutes. The Browns seemed to benefit from snowy conditions, as they were the team more willing to take risks.

They converted all four of their fourth-down attempts, leading to three touchdowns in four red zone trips.

Cleveland is down to its No. 3 quarterback and parted with top wide receiver Amari Cooper at the trade deadline.

Extra time works against the Browns because it just might soften them up to think that they’re better than they actually are.

Even with Jameis Winston stepping in at the quarterback spot to boost the offense, the Browns have yet to put up consistent back-to-back performances.

Cleveland is 0-2 this season when coming off a win, losing by an average of 11.5 points. Sandwiched between Winston’s two victories are also two double-digit losses.

–Prop stop: Courtland’s Street
Courtland Sutton’s recent run of production has been stellar, and the Browns are likely to pay extra attention to Bo Nix’s top target.

Over the last five weeks, Sutton is first in the NFL among wide receivers with 467 receiving yards and fourth with 36 receptions. He’s the go-to option on third down and in the red zone for Nix.

He has at least six receptions in five consecutive games.

Prop pick: Sutton 6+ receptions +110 (DraftKings)

–Broncos’ defense ready to feast on Monday night
Reports indicate ownership expects head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry back next season. That was expected considering they’re just months into long-term contract extensions.

The message to players, what with a 3-8 record and being far closer to a top draft pick than a playoff spot, is mixed.

The Broncos have the fourth-best defense per FTN Fantasy’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

They also rank fourth in stopping the run and sixth against the pass. With the Browns starting left tackle sidelined, they’ll need to pay close attention to protecting Winston’s blind side. Broncos head coach Sean Payton knows Winston well from their days together in New Orleans and, before that, when Winston started for the Buccaneers in the same division.

Denver leads the league in sacks with 44, and Cleveland’s offensive line has allowed the second-most sacks (47). When Winston’s process is sped up, he tends to gift the ball to opposing defensive backs.

In part because of the turnover issues, my power ratings make the Browns closer to an eight-point underdog on the road.

Some are still dangling the Broncos at -5.5 on Monday morning. I recommend laying the points with the home side.

Best Bet: Broncos -5.5 (-122 at FanDuel)

–Field Level Media

Nov 24, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) drops back to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 13

Posted on | by Field Level Media

This time of year can be difficult for bettors. It is not unusual for a struggling NFL team to play well for a day and keep it close against a better team. But if taking such a bet does not sound like a good idea, give one (or more) of the hundreds of player props a try.

With three games on Thanksgiving and another on Black Friday, there are fewer games than usual. However, there are still hundreds of NFL player props available. To help you decide which to bet on, here is our top 10 list of player props for Sunday’s Week 13 slate.

NFL Week 13: Player Props

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Pat Freiermuth, four-plus receptions at +194 (FanDuel)

Freiermuth had four last week in the loss to the Browns and at least that many in each of the first four games of the season. But against a passing team like the Bengals, the Steelers will likely need every weapon in their arsenal to keep up with the Cincinnati passing game. The Bengals’ defense has taken it relatively easy on tight ends this year. So, whether the Steelers are trying to catch up or control the ball, there is a good chance Freiermuth plays a bigger part than usual and makes four-plus receptions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young, O/U 195.5 at -114/-114 (FanDuel)

Those of us who have not paid much attention to the Carolina Panthers this season might be surprised to hear that Bryce Young has been playing pretty well since returning to the starting lineup. He’s thrown for 200-plus yards in two of his past four games and is completing 60-plus percent of his passes. Tampa Bay has a solid run defense. Since the Bucs will probably throw early and often, the Panthers will need Young to throw the ball to catch up and/or be competitive. With how well Young is playing right now, we’ll take the OVER.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, O/U 220.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (DraftKings)

Maye threw for more than 220 passing yards against the Rams and Dolphins, two solid defenses, in his past two games. The Colts’ defense ranks No. 27 in pass defense and has seen opponents average 34 pass attempts and 231.7 yards per game over the past three. Maye has averaged right around 34 attempts and 230 yards over his past three. Take the OVER.

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints

Kyren Williams, O/U 19.5 rushing attempts at -102/-128 (FanDuel)
O/U 82.5 rushing yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
O/U 11.5 receiving yards (DraftKings)

Williams had 16, 15, and 15 carries the past three weeks but had 20-plus in the previous four and has averaged 18.8 per game this season. But he’ll be facing a New Orleans Saints team that has seen opponents run the ball 26.7 times per game and 27.8 at home. The Rams tend to run a little less on the road, but they are fighting to remain in the playoff conversation (just like the Saints). To that end, they’ll put the ball in the hands of their playmaker rather than spread the touches among multiple backs.

New Orleans has been giving up 134.2 yards per game on the ground but has been especially weak against the run at home (163.2 yards per game). Wiliams has gone for over 82.5 yards in three of the five games in which he had 20-plus carries.
But against a Saints team giving up 160-plus at home, take the OVER.

Williams has not been targeted in the passing game the past two weeks (three total). In the eight games where he had at least one catch, he finished with under 11.5 yards in three. He is not a priority in the passing game. Take the UNDER.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

C.J. Stroud, O/U 259.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
Tank Dell, O/U 51.5 receiving yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
O/U 4.5 receptions at +130/-170 (FanDuel)
Nico Collins, O/U longest reception 26.5 yards at -130/+100 (BetMGM)

This should be the ‘get-right’ game C.J. Stroud and the Texans have needed for weeks. Jacksonville has overtaken the Ravens as the worst pass defense in the NFL. Stroud has gone over 259.5 passing yards just once in Houston’s past seven games.

But opponents are averaging 278.3 yards per game this season and close to 300 over the past three games. If Stroud can’t go off against this team with the talent at his disposal …

Tank Dell has gone over 51.5 yards in both games with Nico Collins back in the lineup. But against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed an average of 13.5 receptions for 183.5 yards, Dell should see a few more targets.

Collins will be the primary receiver, of course, but Dell could still see balls thrown his way and that should be enough for him to go OVER both marks. As for Collins, he has had a reception of 28-plus yards in every game but one. Jacksonville has given up 52 pass plays of 20-plus yards and nine of 40-plus.

Take the OVER.

–Field Level Media

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Week 12 MNF: Chargers-Ravens Preview, Props & Prediction

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Brothers and head coaches are the chief plotline Monday night with the aptly labeled HarBowl in Los Angeles.

For the first time since Super Bowl XLVII, the Harbaugh brothers meet again almost 12 years later as John leads his Baltimore Ravens (7-4) into California to test the Chargers (7-3).

Already dueling for wildcard position in the AFC, this matchup finds two teams in good standing for the playoffs win or lose. But a potential tiebreaker in seeding the top seven from the conference comes out of this head-to-head fight for the No. 5 seed and first wildcard position.

No team currently on the bubble has better than a 20% chance to reach the postseason, so a loss isn’t a death knell to either side.

–Pressure is modest on Monday night

The Ravens are currently the No. 6 seed in the playoff picture, one spot behind the Chargers.

The Chargers have played one fewer game due to a bye in Week 5. Remarkably, none of the nine teams currently outside the AFC playoff picture have up to six wins on the season.

Even with a loss on Monday night, the Chargers and Ravens will still have no worse than an 85% chance of making the playoffs.

Those circumstances should allow both teams to play at their best.

We already know the Ravens have one of the most potent offenses in the league. They rank first in the FTN Fantasy Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. And it’s a good thing. Because their defense can be particularly vulnerable, ranking 25th in allowing 362 yards per game.

–Prop Stop: RBs raised by Ravens
Five times the Ravens have allowed 320-plus passing yards in 11 games. Third downs are a problem, and a defense asked to be on the field more than 65 snaps seven times is staring down the barrel at a grind-em-down offensive philosophy that spells doom for the secondary in the second half. A rotation of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, former Ravens backs now leading the Chargers’ productive running game (121.6 yards per game) is ample enough to force the Ravens to play to defend the run.

But Baltimore’s big-play woes in the secondary multiply when they have to commit a safety to slow down an opponent’s running game.

Six of QB Justin Herbert’s 13 TD passes this season were on pass plays of more than 25 yards. He is thriving in play-action with more than 700 yards and three touchdowns off of run fakes since Week 6, which is No. 1 in the NFL.

Big plays are there vertically and in the short screen game to push Herbert across the 300-yard passing mark for the second time this season.

Prop pick: Herbert over 300 passing yards (+220, Fan Duel)

–Chargers can hurt Ravens by air

According to Pro Football Focus, the Ravens’ secondary has the lowest grade (63.0) of all three levels of its defense.

Moreover, their explosive passing plays allowed of 20 or more yards are the league’s second-highest (50).

As a result, there’s no question that the Chargers can get after this Ravens defense through the air. Quarterback Justin Herbert is known to push the ball down the field.

The Oregon product ranks ninth in intended air yards, averaging 8.6 per attempt.

This metric is particularly crucial because it shows the average distance of his passes from behind the line of scrimmage even before the throw reaches the intended receiver.

There aren’t a ton of check-downs in this Chargers offense, and Herbert has been extremely precise with his accuracy, having thrown just one interception the entire season.

While they generally like to play a more controlled game, the Chargers are more than capable of holding their own in a shootout like last week in their 34-27 victory over the Bengals.

Herbert completed only 17 of his 36 pass attempts but still threw for 297 yards. That stat line shows the aggressiveness of the Chargers’ downfield strategy, which could be pretty effective against the Ravens’ pass defense.

The Chargers offense intrigues me the most because of their chances of putting up some points — everyone does against the Ravens this season. Their team total of 23.5 points is available at DraftKings and well within my projection.

Pick: Chargers team total over 23.5 (-125)

–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Nov 18, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush (10) warms up before the game against the Houston Texans at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 12

Posted on | by Field Level Media

If watching the Cleveland Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football makes you think twice about betting on Sunday games — well, you don’t have to. If you don’t want to fall victim to the next upset, bet on one of the many NFL player props offered by online sportsbooks instead.

“Many” doesn’t really do the number of player props available for each game justice; there easily be a couple of hundred per game. But don’t worry about needing to review them all. All you need to do is take a look at our top 10 NFL player props for Week 12, listed in no particular order.

NFL Week 12: Player Props

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

Cooper Rush, O/U 201.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
O/U 33.5 pass attempts at -102/-128 (FanDuel)
O/U 18.5 completions at -130/+100 (DraftKings)

For most of the season, the Cowboys have insisted on trying to establish the run even though they must know it isn’t a strength. But they changed course in their Week 11 loss to the Houston Texans, and Cooper Rush threw 55 passes, of which 32 were caught for 354 yards.

It might seem hard to believe after the 13-for-23, 45-yard debacle in a 34-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Nov. 10, but Rush is not a bad quarterback. After all, he was 5-1 as a starter when called to fill in for Dak Prescott in the 2021 and ‘22 seasons.

Just as they did when they lost 34-10 to the Texans, the Cowboys will fall behind against the Commanders and will need to pass if they are going to try to catch up. So, the volume of attempts for Rush will be there again, as will the yardage against a lackluster Washington pass defense.

Don’t expect Rush to throw the ball 50-plus times again, but his attempts aren’t likely to fall in the mid-20s, either, as in the previous two starts. Opponents are averaging 27.1 attempts per game vs. Washington — but they are also running the ball 30.5 times per game.

Dallas will not run the ball 30 times; they average 21.5 carries per game this season. Take the OVER for Rush passing yards.

If you’re going to take the OVER on his passing yards and attempts, then it almost makes sense to take the OVER for his pass completions. Opponents are completing 65.8 percent of their passes vs. the Commanders. At that rate, to clear 19.5 completions, he’ll need to throw roughly 30 passes.

Yeah, take the OVER.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants

Mike Evans, O/U 50.5 receiving yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
O/U 3.5 receptions at -140/+105 (BetMGM)

Baker Mayfield fared well in the first couple of games with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but the dynamic duo suffered injuries in their Oct. 21 game against the Baltimore Ravens. Godwin is out for the season, but Evans is expected to return this week against the Giants.

If they are going to stay in the wild-card hunt, the Buccaneers will need to win this game after four consecutive losses. To that end, Mayfield probably will target his star wide receiver early and often. It would be surprising if he didn’t have four catches in the first half.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

Christian McCaffrey, O/U 17.5 rushing attempts at +100/-130 (BetMGM)
O/U 108.5 rushing and receiving yards at -113/-115 (FanDuel)

Jordan Love, O/U 0.5 interceptions at -125/-105 (DraftKings)

With Brock Purdy out, the 49ers probably will lean on the run game. When you have the most dangerous offensive player in the NFL in your backfield — Christian McCaffrey — you should. He had 19 carries last week vs. Seattle. He’ll probably get a similar number this week, if not higher.

Without Purdy on the field and backup Brandon Allen in his place, it’s hard to know whether McCaffrey will be more productive for the passing game or the running game or equally proficient. But you typically can count on him being productive. He’s gone for 106 and 107 combined rushing and receiving yards, respectively, in the two games he’s played since his return from an injury that had sidelined him to start the season.

It would not be a stretch for him to get a few more yards and exceed a total of 108.5 rushing/receiving yards. Take the OVER.

Jordan Love has thrown at least one interception in every game he has played this season. The 49ers defense has 11 picks on the year. They’ll make it 12 — if not 13 or 14 — in this game. Take the OVER.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

Tim Settle Jr. O/U .25 sacks at +105/-135 (DraftKings)
Joe Mixon, O/U 21.5 rushing attempts at -110/-120 (BetMGM)

The Houston defense is among the league leaders in sacks this season with 34. Tennessee’s quarterbacks are among the most sacked in the league. Danielle Hunter co-leads the team in sacks, making him a solid choice. However, the odds on his OVER are -176, while Tim Settle Jr. has plus money odds.

With the Titans having injury issues with the interior of the offensive line, a defensive tackle has a shot at breaking through and getting credit for at least half of a sack. Take the OVER.

The Texans have been at their best when Mixon is getting 20-plus carries; every time he has, he’s gone for 100-plus yards. It might be hard to gain 100 or more yards against the Titans’ defense, but Houston will make sure he gets his carries.

–Field Level Media

Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams dives into the end zone to celebrate scoring a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024.

Lions are Super Bowl favorites for first time ever

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The Kansas City Chiefs finally took their first loss of the season on Sunday, and while 9-1 is still a strong record to have, it caused a noteworthy shift in the NFL landscape.

The Detroit Lions surpassed the Chiefs to become the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl at several sportsbooks — for the first time in the woebegone franchise’s history.

The Chiefs were the unchallenged favorites to win Super Bowl LIX ever since notching their second straight championship last February. They remained atop odds boards despite several shaky performances and near-losses throughout their first nine games.

Before the Chiefs lost 30-21 to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the Lions steamrolled the Jacksonville Jaguars 52-6, scoring touchdowns on their first seven drives and never punting. Jared Goff had 412 passing yards and four touchdowns in the Lions’ eighth straight victory.

That combination of events put Detroit, a franchise that had not won a playoff game between 1991 and 2023, over the top.

“For the first time in the history of the franchise, the Lions are now the favorites (+400) to win the Super Bowl,” Fanatics Sportsbook posted on social media Monday.

At BetMGM, the Lions are a mere +325 to win the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs at +450. They’re the +350 favorites at both Fanduel Sportsbook and DraftKings, with Kansas City running second (+500 at Fanduel, +450 at DraftKings).

The Bills, who improved to 9-2 by beating the rival Chiefs, sit third on the board at each of those sportsbooks — +600 at DraftKings, +650 at Fanduel and +700 at BetMGM.

–Field Level Media

Nov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (28) signals after rushing for a first down during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Week 11 MNF: Cowboys-Texans Preview, Props & Prediction

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The battle of the Lone Star State plays out in primetime Monday night when the Texans visit the Cowboys, who are winless at home and trotting out backup Cooper Rush at quarterback with Dak Prescott done for the season.

Losing streaks usher each team into “Monday Night Football.” Houston coughed up a 23-7 lead against the Lions to suffer a second straight loss, while Dallas is winless in four consecutive games and starting a window of three games in 10 days.

The injury report is particularly critical. The Texans’ defensive line won’t have starters Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) and Folorunso Fatukasi (foot) available.

But Houston does welcome back wide receiver Nico Collins from an injured reserve stint due to a hamstring problem.

Dallas will have to navigate the rest of the season without Prescott, who required season-ending surgery for his hamstring issue. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was a late addition to the injury report, though the team does expect him to play Monday.

Cowboys cornerbacks DaRon Bland (foot) and Jordan Lewis (neck) won’t see any action after being ruled out.

While the injury report is a big reason the Texans moved two points — from laying five points to -7 — this matchup might not be the slam dunk that some view it as on paper.

–Problems in Big D
Dallas was already in trouble even before the Prescott injury. Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones has drawn plenty of criticism for how he put the roster together.

Jones cited salary cap constraints as the reason for passing on signing running Derrick Henry at a cut rate during the offseason when he was available as a free agent, and didn’t even consider top-dollar signings such as Saquon Barkley.

The decision looks worse each week. Henry leads the league in yardage, yards per carry and touchdowns and Barkley is putting together an MVP highlight reel for the Eagles.

Jones even doubled down on his comments by saying that while Henry is having a great year with Baltimore, it’s unlikely that the nine-year veteran would’ve had similar success with the Cowboys because they run a different type of offense.

The problem with this statement is that Henry was successful as a straight-ahead runner for the Titans, and one has to expect that a Hall of Fame-level running back in peak condition can still get the job done in various schemes.

Dallas clearly had a void at running back after opting not to resign Tony Pollard. Henry might have been able to mask some of the deficiencies within the Cowboys’ offensive line, which has taken a step back relative to recent dominant front five groups.

Defensively, the Cowboys were always more of an opportunistic team that benefited from turnovers, which isn’t always a sustainable metric.

Nonetheless, even with their problems, I’m not sure they warrant the Cowboys catching seven points as home underdogs.

–Prop Stop
Joe Mixon has become the bread-and-butter option in the Houston offense.

With Collins back on the field and Dallas’ health concerns in the secondary, the Cowboys are certain to be on their heels anticipating C.J. Stroud will push the ball to Collins and Tank Dell.

It’s Mixon who could be in for a lunchpail shift Monday. That’s because Dallas has been steamrolled in the running game the past four games, allowing 173.5 yards per game.

Mixon has 24 carries or more in four consecutive games and five 100-yard rushing games despite missing three due to injury.

Prop pick: Joe Mixon 100+ rushing yards, +152 (FanDuel)

–A first-half wager worth considering
We’ll learn plenty about the Cowboys’ resolve Monday and over the next 10 days.

Whether they can put forth a better effort after last week’s 34-6 loss to the Eagles is not clear. Between Rush and Trey Lance, the Cowboys longest pass play went all of 10 yards. The Cowboys had 49 yards passing while averaging 2.6 yards per play.

It’s difficult to think that they can play much worse, and I know the public is lining up to fade them against the Texans.

We must note that teams have struggled to get back up to speed in their following game after facing the Lions. Detroit is known to be a very physical team, and its opponents are just 2-6 straight up and 0-8 against the spread in their next game.

Those numbers are certainly enough reason for me to pause on backing Houston.

However, Collins’ return should bring Houston juice.

With Collins on the field, Houston went 4-1. While losing Stefon Diggs to an ACL injury remains a colossal blow to the Texans, Collins is more than capable of occupying that No. 1 wide receiver position.

The Texans went scoreless for the final two quarters against the Lions, and I think there will be a concerted effort to get the offense up and running again with a fast start.

Houston ranks seventh in first-half scoring with 14.2 points per game, while the Dallas defense allows a league-worst 24.3 at home in this spot. They’ve given up points in 18 consecutive quarters, a sign of weary legs and lagging effort.

As a result, I prefer to pass on the points spread altogether and back the Texans to go over their first-half team total of 11.5 points.

Best bet: Texans 1H team total over 11.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)

–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Nov 3, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 11

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Week 11 of the NFL season got off to an exciting start with the Commanders vs. Eagles game on “Thursday Night Football.”

Bettors have the rest of Week 11 ahead of them, but they don’t have to settle for the traditional betting line if they don’t want to. No, each game comes with a healthy menu of player props.

Bettors can choose from over a thousand player props for the Sunday games. The following is a list of our top 10 player props for NFL Week 11 (in no particular order).

NFL Week 11: Player Props

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Jordan Love, O/U 32.5 passing attempts at -102/-128 (FanDuel)

Opponents have averaged just over 30 attempts per game against the Bears this season and just over 27 in the last three. Why so few? Because foes don’t need to throw on the Bears.

Once teams get out to a sufficient lead, they lean heavily on the run to run time off the clock. That’s what the Patriots did when they beat the Bears last week, as did the Cardinals the week before.

Love has exceeded 32.5 attempts in four of his seven starts this season, including two of his past three. But don’t count on him to do it again, as the Packers will do like everyone else when they play the Bears and lean on the run game. Take the UNDER.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Joe Burrow, O/U 265.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (DraftKings)

Burrow widely is regarded as one of the better passers in the NFL. Anyone who watched him throw for 428 yards last week vs. the Ravens will probably agree with that sentiment. However, there are a couple of things working against Burrow going OVER this total.

For one, the Chargers have a solid pass defense that is allowing just 191.6 yards per game. While Burrow is averaging 267.2 passing yards per game, take away his two ridiculous outings against the Ravens, and his average is 231.5 yards per game. Take the UNDER.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

George Pickens, O/U 68.5 receiving yards at -120/-110

George Pickens, longest reception, O/U 26.5 yards at -135/+100

George Pickens, O/U 4.5 Reception made at -130/+100

George Pickens, 75+ Receiving Yards at +110

*Odds via BetMGM

The Ravens can’t defend against the pass (league-worst 294.9 yards allowed per game). It’s been well-documented and evident whenever they play a competent quarterback. Russell Wilson appears to be one once again, and he has done a great job connecting with George Pickens on deep balls.

In Wilson’s three starts, the veteran quarterback hit Pickens with a long of 44, 43 and 34 yards. No one gives up more 20-plus-yard receptions than the Ravens (47). Wide receivers are averaging nearly 200 yards a game against the Ravens. If Wilson targets Pickens eight times, he will make at least five catches and almost certainly will go OVER 68.5 yards, if not 75+ as well.

Unless the Ravens suddenly figure out how to defend against the pass, Pickens will have a career day. Take the OVER for each prop.

Lamar Jackson, O/U 43.5 rushing yards at -127/-108 (Caesars)

Jackson has gone over this number in seven of 10 games this season but not in his past two. Against the Steelers, he will face one of the best run defenses in the game (No. 4, 87.1 ypg allowed). But they are not just good at stopping running backs. Pittsburgh is quite good at containing running quarterbacks.

The Steelers’ defense is one of the best at keeping quarterbacks from scrambling. Quarterbacks are running on 1.5 percent of dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league.

If Jackson sets his mind to it, he would clear 44 yards against the Steelers D, but they don’t need him to. That’s what they signed Derrick Henry for, so someone other than their quarterback can run for the tough yards. Take the UNDER.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown, O/U 76.5 receiving yards at -105/-115 (DraftKings)

Jared Goff, O/U 228.5 passing yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)

Jahmyr Gibbs, O/U 15.5 rushing attempts at +100/-130 (BetMGM)

Bonus: Jahmyr Gibbs, O/U 69.5 rushing yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)

St. Brown has gone over this total just twice this season, vs. the Buccaneers in Week 2 and the Vikings in Week 7. The Jaguars do not have a defense that can contain him, but don’t count on him to go OVER 76.5 yards. Why not? The Lions will not need him to.

Detroit is a massive favorite in this game. Once the Lions get a comfortable lead, the offense will focus more on running the ball and eating up the clock. That is also why Goff will probably not go over 228.5 yards passing, a number he has gone over once in his past three games.

Take the UNDER for both.

As for Gibbs and his rushing attempts, he has gone over 15.5 carries just twice this season as he is in a committee with David Montgomery. (They both have 122 carries heading into this game). Thus, Gibbs is getting 13.6 attempts per game, so he would need at least two more to hit the OVER.

Assuming the Lions do lean on the run in the second half once the game is in hand, he would get closer to 20 carries and closer to 90-100 yards than 69.5. Take the OVER on both.

–Field Level Media

Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) leaps over Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Ronald Darby (25) while running with the ball during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props for NFL Week 10

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Fans and bettors have probably already seen the most exciting game of the Week 10 slate in Thursday night’s Bengals-Ravens game, but that does not mean we take the week off. It just means we find something else to bet on, like the hundred or so player props offered for each game.

We have a lot to get through, so let’s not waste any time. Here are our top 10 player props for Week 10’s Sunday NFL games.

NFL Week 10: Player Props

These are not in any kind of order; we don’t necessarily like the first one any more or less than the last one. But we’d recommend each one. Oh — and be sure to line shop before placing your bet to make sure you are getting the best odds available.

Sam LaPorta O/U 3.5 Receptions at -115/-115

The Detroit Lions tight end was a breakout star in his rookie season last year, with 86 receptions on 120 targets for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. But this season, he just hasn’t been a big part of the gameplan. Other than their season opener against the Rams that went into overtime, he’s been targeted more than three times just twice.

Both of those games were blowout wins. This game should be a relatively close one (especially if C.J. Stroud gets Nico Collins back). The Texans’ defense has limited tight ends to just 24 catches.

Take the UNDER (odds via DraftKings).

Saquon Barkley O/U 103.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards -120/-110 (DraftKings)

Saquon Barkley to record 10+ Rushing Yards in Each Quarter +145 (FanDuel)

Saquon Barkley Longest Rush O/U 17.5 Yards -110/-120 (DraftKings)

The struggle has been all too real for the Cowboys and their defense, which the Eagles and former Giants running back Saquon Barkley will exploit with ease. Dallas has struggled against opposing running backs in several games this season; Barkley is next in line.

However, as bad as the Dallas defense has been, only two running backs have rushed for 100+ yards against them. Bijan Robinson ran for 86 for the Falcons last week but also had 59 receiving yards.

The Eagles appear intent on getting Barkley his touches; he’s averaging 19.6 carries a game. Teams are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the Dallas D. Barkley has been averaging 5.9, but even if the Cowboys hold him to 4.6, Barkley will break a screen play or two for a long gain to get OVER 103.5 rushing and receiving yards.

The only reason he may not get 10+ rushing yards a carry would be if the game is so well in hand that he sits out the fourth quarter. As for his longest rush, Dallas has given up nine plays of 20+ yards. Between Barkley’s shiftiness and the Cowboys’ inability to tackle, he’ll make it at least 10 (if not 11 or 12).

Take OVER 17.5 yards.

D’Andre Swift O/U 71.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)

D’Andre Swift O/U 17.5 Rushing Attempts at -105/-125 (DraftKings)

Swift didn’t run for 71.5 total yards in the first three games but has since gone over 71.5 in four of five games. Three of those games were wins, and the fourth, they lost because of a Hail Mary. The Patriots have allowed a running back to gain 80 or more yards in their last five games; two did so in one game.

Since the Bears will likely try to take advantage of the Patriots’ run defense and feed Swift the ball, he’ll have no problem going OVER 71.5 yards rushing.

Now, he’s only carried the ball 18+ times in two games. But look for the Bears to take advantage of New England’s poor run defense to help take pressure off Caleb Williams. Opposing teams averaged 35.3 rushing attempts vs. the Patriots in their last three games. Swift will get at least 20 in this game.

Take the OVER for his rushing attempts.

Kyle Pitts O/U 41.5 Receiving Yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)

Kyle Pitts O/U 3.5 Receptions at -114/-114 (FanDuel)

Pitts had one catch for 11 yards last week vs. Dallas and had no catches against the Saints (three targets) back in Week 4. In the four games in between, he had seven, three, seven, and four catches for 88, 70, 65, and 91 yards. Kirk Cousins will get him involved again facing a Saints defense that is struggling right now.

Take the OVER.

As for his receptions total, before the Dallas game last week, he had more than 3.5 in three of four games. Had he caught a few balls against the Saints, he would have probably been targeted more than three times in that one. If Cousins is going to get him involved, he’ll throw 5-10 passes to Pitts. The tight end should catch at least four.

Take the OVER.

Baker Mayfield O/U 34.5 Pass Attempts -115/-115

Baker Mayfield O/U 0.5 Interceptions

Mayfield has averaged 40.5 attempts per game over his last four, partially because the Buccaneers have had to play catch-up and because they do not run the ball well. Against a 49ers team getting Christian McCaffrey back this week, there is a good chance Tampa Bay will be playing catch-up early and often in this game.

Take the OVER.

In regard to his interception total, when you throw the ball as much as Tampa Bay does, you are bound to throw the occasional pick. Mayfield did not throw one last week but had seven in the previous three games. The 49ers’ defense had two in each of their last three games and at least one in their last five games.

If Mayfield throws the ball 40+ times again, he’s throwing at least one pick against this 49ers defense.

Take the OVER.

–Field Level Media

Sep 15, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and tight end Travis Kelce (87) return to the sidelines after a score against the Cincinnati Bengals during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Week 9 MNF: Chiefs-Buccaneers Preview, Props & Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The Chiefs try to keep their perfect season alive when they host the Buccaneers on Monday night.

Despite being 7-0, things haven’t gone smoothly for Kansas City with mounting injuries at skill positions.

Wide receivers Rashee Rice (knee), Hollywood Brown (shoulder), and Skyy Moore (groin) are all on injured reserve, while JuJu Smith-Schuster will miss a second straight week after reaggravating his hamstring.

Kansas City is also without starting running back Isiah Pacheco (fibula).

But the Chiefs moved quickly to add reinforcements, signing free agent running back Kareem Hunt and trading for veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

The Buccaneers won’t have much sympathy for the Chiefs. Tampa Bay lost top two best wide receivers, Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring), to injuries in Week 7.

Back-to-back defeats dropped the Bucs to 4-4, and it’s unlikely that the team will be a buyer before the trade deadline.

As things stand, it’s difficult to see a path to victory for the Buccaneers in what figures to be a tricky spot on the road against the Chiefs.
Weather could lead to slow start for Buccaneers

While it’s fair to debate whether Kansas City is worthy of being a massive 9-point favorite, there are other factors we must consider for this matchup.

The weather could play a critical role as the forecast calls for extended periods of rain with wind.

Such conditions could be detrimental for the Bucs, who are more used to playing under clear skies and warm Florida sun.

If the Buccaneers fall behind, it’s difficult to see the offense gaining traction after consecutive double-digit losses.

Considering their injuries at wide receiver, the last thing you’d want if you’re Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is to throw a wet ball to receivers who lack significant reps with the first team.

The weather and limited options at wide receiver could make Tampa Bay’s offense look unbalanced.

Although there’s no disputing that the Buccaneers have one of the better rushing attacks in football, they’ll face a Chiefs team that ranks second in the FTN Fantasy Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the run.

Kansas City is also one of four teams limiting opponents to under 100 rushing yards per game.

Offensively, the Chiefs are willing to take risks in the passing game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still has weapons at wide receiver with Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman and the reliable Travis Kelce at tight end.

Teams have had their way with this Tampa Bay defense and the Bucs are being hit with big plays. The Buccaneers rank 31st in opponent yards per carry (5.2), and they’re tied for the league-worst in yards per play (6.0). Tampa allowed 15 TD passes in the first eight games of the season.

While the Buccaneers attempt to get their footing early in the game, watch for Kansas City to land a few haymakers, making the Chiefs’ first-half spread of -4.5 an intriguing option worthy of strong consideration.

Best bet: Chiefs 1H -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Prop Shop: Kareem Hunt has become a central figure in the Kansas City offense since rejoining the Chiefs. With injuries at wide receiver and the Buccaneers giving up 131.6 yards and one rushing touchdown per game, Monday night should be no different.

Pick: Kareem Hunt 10-plus rushing yards in every quarter, +390

–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Sep 8, 2024; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn (8) during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props for NFL Week 9

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The slate of games on deck for NFL Week 9 does not feature too many (any?) intriguing matchups, but that doesn’t mean bettors should take the week off. However, they may want to focus on some of the many player props on offer. With sportsbooks carrying a couple hundred per game, bettors will have plenty to choose from.

But with 13 games scheduled for Sunday, sportsbooks will have well over a couple thousand markets to choose from. So, where do you start? You start with our top 10 player props list for Week 9 of the NFL season.

NFL Week 9: Player Props

The following are our top 10 player prop picks for Week 9 of the NFL season (Sunday games). These will not be in any particular order, and the odds will be via FanDuel unless otherwise stated. However, we do suggest you line shop and make sure you get the best odds for whichever ones you choose to bet on.

Alvin Kamara, O/U 67.5 Rushing Yards at -114/-114

Alvin Kamara, O/U 15.5 rushing attempts at -120/-110 (via DraftKings)

Kamara has averaged just 10 carries per game the last three weeks with Spencer Rattler at quarterback, but we expect that to change with Derek Carr coming back to face the Panthers. In the first four games of the season (with Carr at QB), Kamara got 15, 20, 26 and 19 carries.

To take the pressure off Carr as he returns from injury, the Saints will give their multitalented running back plenty of touches. Against the worst run defense in the league (154.6 ypg allowed; 171.3 ypg allowed over their last three), he’ll probably blow past 67.5 yards in the first half.

Our Picks: OVER 67.5 rushing yards and 15.5 rush attempts

Bryce Young, O/U 18.5 Pass Completions at -135/+105

Against the Saints in Week 1, Young had 13 completions (30 attempts). In Week 2, he had 18 (26 attempts), and in his return to the starting lineup last week, he completed 24 of 37 passes. The Saints have been allowing 22.4 per week and 20 in their previous three games.

Having beaten the Panthers once already this season and hungry for another win, the Saints’ defense will take charge in this game. They’ll rattle Young from the start and not let up.

Our Pick: UNDER 18.5 completions for +105

Dak Prescott, O/U 37.5 Passing Attempts at +100/-130

The Dallas run game has been truly terrible this season, leaving the Cowboys no choice but to throw a lot. Prescott has attempted more than 37.5 passes in four of seven games this season and averages 37.4. Opponents are averaging 33.6 per game against Atlanta this season and 39 attempts per game over the last three.

Once the Falcons get out to a comfortable lead at the half, Mike McCarthy will abandon the run in the second. Dak may surpass 37.5 attempts before the fourth quarter.

Our Pick: OVER 37.5 pass attempts for Dak Prescott.

Derrick Henry, O/U 18.5 Rushing Attempts at -114/-114

Derrick Henry, O/U 86.5 Rushing Yards at +104/-135

When the Ravens review the game film for last week’s loss to the Browns, they will see one issue on offense that can be easily rectified. Henry did not touch the ball enough (11 carries), hence his lowest rushing total since Week 1.

He’s had between 15 and 24 attempts since Week 2 with more than 18.5 in three (all wins that saw him run for 100+ yards). Denver has a tough defense; teams have been averaging 26.5 this season against them for 106.4 ypg (98 ypg allowed over their last three). Jackson will take some of those carries, but after losing last week, they’ll try to get back to their bread and butter this week.

Our Pick: OVER 18.5 attempts and 86.5 rushing yards

Kyren Williams, O/U 20.5 Rush Attempts at -110/-120

Kyren Williams, O/U 91.5 Rushing Yards at -115/-115

The Rams have been leaning on their young running back the last few weeks, giving him the ball 22, 21 and 23 times, and he has not disappointed as he’s gone for 102, 76 and 97 yards. Teams have been averaging 30 rush attempts (148.3 yards) against the Seahawks this season, 33 per game over their last three (182.3 ypg allowed).

Los Angeles would be foolish not to feed Williams against a defense struggling against the run.

Our Pick(s): OVER 20.5 rushes and 91.5 yards (odds via DraftKings)

Khalil Shakir, O/U 4.5 Total Receptions at -128/-102

Khalil Shakir, O/U 51.5 Receiving Yards at -114/-114

Shakir has been the go-to guy for Josh Allen the last two weeks with 16 receptions on 17 targets for 107 and 65 yards. Allen had a relatively quiet day against the Dolphins when these teams played back in Week 2 (13-for-19 for 139 yards and one touchdown), but Shakir caught all five of his targets for 54 yards.

Our Picks: Take the OVER for both markets.

–Field Level Media