Tag: Betting

Oct 27, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Jake Haener (3) throws against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 15

Posted on | by Field Level Media

It’s not a full Sunday slate of NFL action with two Monday night matchups, but it is going to be a busy day with plenty of player props to choose from among the games scheduled.

In an effort to make betting on them easier, we’ve done a deep dive into each game, looking for the best ones.

What is “best” is in the eye of the bettor, of course. But here are 10 of our favorite NFL player props from the Week 15 slate. (The following are in no particular order. Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise indicated).

Commanders vs. Saints

Jake Haener, QB, New Orleans Saints O/U 188.5 Passing Yards -113/-113

The Saints’ passing game was mediocre on its best days, especially since Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed went on injured reserve. And now a former fourth-round pick, Haener, is set to get his first NFL start on Sunday vs. a decent Washington defense.

The Commanders’ defense will smell blood in the water against an inexperienced quarterback. Haener got his most significant action to date on Oct. 27 against the Chargers, against whom he went 9 of 17 for 122 yards.

Take the UNDER.

Alvin Kamara, O/U 16.5 Rushing Attempts +100/-130 (BetMGM)

Kamara has logged 17-plus rushing attempts in four of his past five games. Since Washington ranks toward the bottom in rushing yards allowed per game, there is a good chance the Saints give him the ball a few more times.

Take the OVER.

Patriots vs. Cardinals

Drake Maye, O/U 20.5 Pass Completions -128/-102

Maye has completed at least 22 passes in five of his past seven games. Of the two times he was under in that span, he left one game early due to a concussion, and in the other (vs. Chicago), the New England defense took center stage and he didn’t need to throw much. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 21-plus passes vs. the Cardinals in eight straight games.

Take the OVER.

Kyler Murray, O/U 223.5 Passing Yards -120/-110 (DraftKings)

Murray has had some ups and downs this season, but he has been “up” for his past four games, throwing for 266, 285, 260 and 259 yards. With the run game not doing well in recent weeks, he attempted 24, 37, 45 and 38 passes in those games, respectively.

However, the Cardinals lost the past three games and they were trying to come from behind. That may not be the case this week. Still, since their run game is struggling and the Patriots’ defense has been mediocre against the pass, he will throw enough to go OVER this total.

Take the OVER.

Ravens vs. Giants

Justice Hill, O/U 15.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

If you look at his stat lines for this season, the UNDER looks like a terrific play. He has gone UNDER that total in seven of his past eight games. With Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson carrying the bulk of the load, that makes sense.

However, if this game becomes the blowout it is expected to be, the Ravens will pull Henry early enough in the second half. With three games in 11 days this late in the season, the Ravens will want to give their star running back a break to preserve him for future games.

Don’t be shocked if Hill plays the entire fourth quarter, if not most of the second half.

Take the OVER.

Dolphins vs. Texans

Tua Tagovailoa, O/U 264.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113

O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns at -128/-102

The Texans possess one of those defenses where the stats do not paint an accurate picture of just how good they are. Overall, they rank seventh in pass defense this season, allowing 198.8 yards per game.

Even so, Jacksonville’s Mac Jones threw for 235 yards and almost completed an incredible second-half comeback in Houston’s most recent game. Before that, Tennessee’s Will Levis threw for 278 yards against the Texans, Cooper Rush threw for 354 yards and Detroit’s Jared Goff threw for 240 yards despite throwing five interceptions.

Tagovailoa has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his past three games and had 288 in the one before that span. He has found his rhythm, and with the run game struggling, he is throwing a lot. Even if it looks sketchy for him in the first half, he will go OVER this total in the second half.

Take the OVER.

As for his touchdown total, Houston has given up 26 passing touchdowns this season, tied for the most in the NFL. Tagovailoa has thrown for two or more in each of his past four games. It would be a surprise if he did not throw at least two TD passes in this game.

Take the OVER.

Tyreek Hill, O/U 71.5 Receiving Yards at -113/-113

It has not been an excellent year for Hill, but he and Tagovailoa have formed a top connection the past two games. Hill was targeted 23 times in that stretch and caught 16 for 198 yards. The Texans may try to take him away, but they don’t have the personnel to do that. He may not do it until the fourth quarter, but Hill will go OVER 71.5 yards.

Take the OVER.

De’Von Achane, O/U 47.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

Houston has a decent run defense, and Achane has struggled to get the run game on track for the Dolphins no matter what team they face. He has gone over 47.5 yards just once in his past five games.

He will probably not go over it in this game because Miami will be too busy throwing the ball against the Texans’ defense.

Take the UNDER.

Nico Collins, O/U 88.5 Receiving Yards at -113/-113

Collins has improved with each game since returning from a five-game injury absence, culminating in an eight-reception, 119-yard day against the Jaguars. C.J. Stroud likely will try to target him 10 to 15 times in this game. As long as Collins catches half, he will go OVER 71.5 yards.

Take the OVER.

–Field Level Media

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs for a touchdown to score the first points of the game, Sunday, October 13, 2024, in East Rutherford.

Week 14 MNF: Cowboys-Bengals Preview, Prop and Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

A Week 14 matchup between the Bengals and Cowboys looked intriguing when the league released the schedule.

Not many expected these teams to be near the bottom of the pecking order in the playoff picture.

Cincinnati (4-8) and Dallas (5-7) have a 2% chance of reaching the postseason according to NFL.com’s playoff predictor.

With such a grim outlook, these defenses could be particularly vulnerable.

As a result, this is a matchup where offenses are in line for big numbers, so it’s no surprise that we have a total of 49.5.

The Bengals have the more fluid offense and would be in a better spot in the standings if not for quite a few bad breaks. We’ll explain why bettors should expect the Bengals to jump out to a fast start on Monday night.

–Joe Burrow has been elite

Per TeamRankings, the Jets (-2.7) are the only team with a worse luck factor than the Bengals (-2.4).

That metric suggests that, with a little better luck, the Bengals could have had an additional 2.4 wins on the year.

They’ve gotten excellent play at the quarterback position from Joe Burrow, who leads the league with 30 touchdowns while only throwing five interceptions.

Burrow’s play has been so good that he even ranks second in Total QBR with a 74.2 value. Given the importance of the position, it’s rare that you see a quarterback with such a high Total QBR on a team that’s four games under .500.

It’s worth noting that Burrow still managed to put up these prodigious numbers despite not having one of his best wide receivers, Tee Higgins, for five games.

Higgins is now back with the team, which should help Cincinnati’s all-gas and no-brakes offense.

-Prop Play
It’s a night for the receivers in Dallas, a duel that spotlights No. 1 targets CeeDee Lamb and Ja’Marr Chase.

Lamb was slow to return to the practice field midweek but is ready to go and will be active against a Bengals’ defense with no true No. 1 cornerback. He’ll be targeted early and is a bargain for two-plus catches on the opening drive (+350).

We are resisting that early wager based on the number of variables at play and Cooper Rush’s wild inconsistency working from the pocket.

But both offenses will get plenty of yards and air it out, making the two-player prop for these wide receivers an easy decision.

Prop pick: CeeDee Lamb alternate receiving yards, 70-plus; Ja’Marr Chase alternate receiving yards, 90-plus (+285, FanDuel)

–Bengals’ offense is their best defense
Given Burrow’s performances, the Bengals have no choice but to lean on him to get the offense going. Cincinnati has the fourth-highest pass-play rate (64.3%) in the league, mainly because its defense can barely stop a nosebleed at this point.

Moreover, the Bengals have the fourth-worst defense by DVOA standards. They particularly struggle against the pass, which the Cowboys offense will look to take advantage of after posting back-to-back wins to snap a five-game losing streak.

Considering that Dallas also has the third-highest pass-play rate (64.9%), it’s no secret what these offenses will try to do once they get on the field.

While Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush has looked better in his last few games, there’s no comparison between him and Burrow.

The Bengals are in a position where they can’t relax on offense because of their leaky defense. They should have plenty of success against a Dallas team that struggles to get stops inside the red zone, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on a league-worst 76.9% of their trips.

When you combine that with Cincinnati having the second-best red zone offense (71%), it could be a long night for the Cowboys’ defense.

However, the number that stands out the most is that the Cowboys’ defense gives up an average of 20.7 first-half points per game to visiting teams.

That stat is simply too good to pass up, making the Bengals’ first-half team total of 13.5 points a play worth targeting on Monday night.

Best Bet: Bengals 1H team total over 13.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024, during the Big Ten Championship game between the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Ducks defeated the Nittany Lions, 45-37.

College Football Playoff betting guide: First-round odds, title favorites

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Sunday’s inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff bracket reveal officially set the stage for the most anticipated postseason the sport has ever seen.

Eight more spots in the playoff field have created two extra rounds to determine a national champion, which could come from the Big Ten, the Southeastern Conference or even the Mountain West!

Now that the initial matchups are set, it’s time to examine the FanDuel odds for the first-round games and, of course, the latest national championship odds.

CFP Bracket: Odds for First-Round Games

Oregon’s win over Penn State in the Big Ten championship locked the Ducks into the No. 1 seed, while Georgia’s overtime triumph over Texas for the SEC crown moved the Bulldogs up to No. 2.

Boise State slotted in at No. 9 in the final CFP rankings but is the No. 3 seed thanks to its win over UNLV in the Mountain West championship.

With SMU losing to Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game, No. 12-ranked Arizona State is the four seed after it throttled Iowa State to win the Big 12.

The top four teams get a bye, with the 5-12 seeds meeting in the first round.

12-seed Clemson (+330) vs. 5-seed Texas (-11.5)

Texas was favored to win the SEC and lock down a top-four seed, but Clemson was not expected to beat SMU for the ACC title. The Longhorns will therefore hunt redemption, while Dabo Swinney’s team is essentially playing with house money.

The winner will face Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.

9-seed Tennessee (+215) vs. 8-seed Ohio State (-7.5)

The third-highest-ranked team from the SEC (No. 7 Tennessee) will face off with the third-highest-ranked squad from the Big Ten (No. 6 Ohio State). This game brings the Buckeyes a chance at redemption for their embarrassing loss to Michigan to end the regular season.

The winner will travel to the Rose Bowl to play Oregon.

11-seed SMU (+240) vs. 6-seed Penn State (-7.5)

Concerns over strength of schedule dog both teams. Both have 11-2 records and were runners-up in their respective conferences. Penn State’s only win over a ranked opponent was against then-No. 19 Illinois in Week 4, while SMU has knocked off then-No. 22 Louisville and then-No. 18 Pittsburgh.

The winner will meet Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.

10-seed Indiana (+230) vs. 7-seed Notre Dame (-7.5)

The Hoosiers may be the biggest surprise in college football this season, although their inclusion came with a few concerns over the strength of their schedule. After falling flat in a potential statement game against then-No. 2 Ohio State on Nov. 23, Indiana can prove its might against a Fighting Irish squad that won its last 10 games.

The winner will take on Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

National Championship Odds and Picks

Oregon was the betting favorite (odds via FanDuel) prior to the final rankings reveal at +230. Post-reveal, Texas and Georgia are co-favorites at +360, followed by Oregon at +380, Ohio State at +500 and Penn State at +600.

Boise State is the biggest long shot at +7500 despite having a first-round bye. Like Boise State, Arizona State saw its odds go from +3500 to +6000 even though it doesn’t play until the quarterfinals.

The Picks are In…

First-Round Best Bet: Indiana-Notre Dame UNDER 51.5-both teams have solid offenses but will find it difficult to move the ball against the other’s defense.

Upset Special: Clemson (+340) over Texas-Cade Klubnik will have his hands full against the Texas secondary, but the Clemson defense could be up for the challenge against Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns offense.

National Championship Winner: Favorite-Oregon +380; Dark Horse-Notre Dame +1200; Long Shot-Arizona State +6000

–Field Level Media

Dec 1, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) passes the ball against the Washington Commanders during the fourth quarter at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 14

Posted on | by Field Level Media

With six NFL teams on a bye and a shortage of competitive matchups this week, the risk may not be worth the reward betting on the traditional moneyline. However, with hundreds of NFL player props to choose from, bettors have options other than the spread, moneyline and total.

There is nothing wrong with putting money down on the traditional betting line for a game this week. But if these questionable matchups make you nervous, check out our list of the top 10 player props for the Sunday NFL slate.

Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise stated.

Jaguars vs. Titans

Will Levis, O/U 211.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113

O/U 0.5 Interceptions at -130/+100 (odds via DraftKings)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, O/U 36.5 Receiving Yards at -110/-120 (odds via BetMGM)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer at +230

Since getting back into the lineup for the Titans, Will Levis has been … not bad. His first game back (vs. the Chargers) was not spectacular: He was 18 of 23 for 175 yards and two touchdowns. But his past three passing-yardage totals have been 295, 278 and 212.

Against the league’s worst pass defense (talking about you, Jags), it would be surprising if he did not clear 211.5 yards this week. Take the OVER.

As for his interception total, yes, he has nine this season in nine games. He has been picked off twice in the four games since his return. But the Jaguars are one of the worst teams when it comes to forcing turnovers (eight, next to last in the league, three of them courtesy of Sam Darnold in one game).

Since the UNDER has even-money odds, take the UNDER.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has not had a great season, but he has become one of Levis’ favorite targets of late. In the four games with Levis under center again, Westbrook-Ikhine has been targeted 22 times (over half of his season total).

He has only caught two or three in each game, but in the past three, he went over 36.5 yards (117, 48, 61). As for scoring, he has recorded four touchdowns in his past three games.

Take the OVER on his yardage total and YES on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.

Falcons vs. Vikings

Sam Darnold, O/U 249.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113

Atlanta’s defense held opponents to 231.7 passing yards per game over the past three games. However, that number benefited quite a bit from last week’s game vs. the Chargers. Los Angeles had only 131 passing yards, but that number is definitely the exception and not the rule for the Falcons’ defense.

Darnold has gone over 249.5 yards just twice in his past five games. However, we like his chances of having a solid day in the passing game against a questionable Atlanta defense.

Take the OVER.

Panthers vs. Eagles

Jalen Hurts, O/U 25.5 Pass Attempts at -108/-120

The Eagles’ offense has been all about Saquon Barkley running the ball with the occasional run by Hurts and enough passing to force defenses to respect the threat the passing game could have. Consequently, Hurts has attempted more than 25.5 passes in a game once in his past eight contests.

Take the UNDER.

Jets vs. Dolphins

De’Von Achane, O/U 89.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards at -113/-115

Achane is one of the more explosive backs in the NFL, but without Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, he struggled. Tagovailoa has been back for a few weeks, and Achane’s production has improved, but the running back has gone over 93.5 total yards only once in his past three games and three times in six games since Tagovailoa’s return on Oct. 27.

The Jets are having all kinds of issues this season, but their defense has kept games from getting ugly. However, a running back has cleared 89.5 total yards against the Jets’ defense in two of the past four games.

Take the OVER.

Jonnu Smith, O/U 49.5 Receiving Yards at -113/-113

O/U 4.5 Receptions at +100/-135 (odds via BetMGM)

The Jets’ defense has been stingy, with tight ends averaging 4.5 receptions and 42.7 receiving yards, but Smith has been on fire the past three weeks. Tagovailoa targeted him 30 times across all three and he caught 25 (with a low of six while averaging a hair over 100 yards.

Take the OVER for both.

Browns vs. Steelers

Jameis Winston, O/U 8.5 Rushing Yards at -120/-110 (odds via BetMGM)

Winston does not take off running often, nor does he go far. He has had 19 rushes this season for 57 yards. However, he did have one game where he carried the ball five times for 27 yards (vs. the Chargers), and last week, vs. the Broncos, he had three carries for 11 yards.

However, the Steelers’ defense has been stingy against mobile quarterbacks, giving up 123 yards on 27 attempts. If Winston does run, he will not get far.

Take the UNDER.

–Field Level Media

Oct 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) before the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Week 13 MNF: Broncos-Browns Preview, Props & Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Denver returns from a bye week for a visit from the Cleveland Browns, who are back in front of a national audience to wrap up Week 13 on Monday night.

The Broncos (7-5) can keep themselves squarely in the wild-card picture with a victory Monday before Denver dips into the bye week.

Cleveland is without left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (knee), safety Juan Thornhill (calf) and wide receiver Cedric Tillman (concussion) have all been ruled out.

That means another test of the Browns’ depth, with defensive lineman Sam Kamara (head) and cornerback Myles Harden (tibia) also set to miss the game.

For the Broncos, only cornerback Riley Moss is their only player ruled out on the injury report.

Can the Browns overcome the injuries in enemy territory on the road?

–Misleading box score in Browns’ recent victory
Cleveland gifted Pittsburgh three turnovers in Week 12, yet the Steelers still couldn’t take advantage and the AFC North leaders lost 24-19 in further proof Thursday division games are Mike Tomlin’s weakness.

Pittsburgh even won the time-of-possession battle, controlling the ball for 35 minutes. The Browns seemed to benefit from snowy conditions, as they were the team more willing to take risks.

They converted all four of their fourth-down attempts, leading to three touchdowns in four red zone trips.

Cleveland is down to its No. 3 quarterback and parted with top wide receiver Amari Cooper at the trade deadline.

Extra time works against the Browns because it just might soften them up to think that they’re better than they actually are.

Even with Jameis Winston stepping in at the quarterback spot to boost the offense, the Browns have yet to put up consistent back-to-back performances.

Cleveland is 0-2 this season when coming off a win, losing by an average of 11.5 points. Sandwiched between Winston’s two victories are also two double-digit losses.

–Prop stop: Courtland’s Street
Courtland Sutton’s recent run of production has been stellar, and the Browns are likely to pay extra attention to Bo Nix’s top target.

Over the last five weeks, Sutton is first in the NFL among wide receivers with 467 receiving yards and fourth with 36 receptions. He’s the go-to option on third down and in the red zone for Nix.

He has at least six receptions in five consecutive games.

Prop pick: Sutton 6+ receptions +110 (DraftKings)

–Broncos’ defense ready to feast on Monday night
Reports indicate ownership expects head coach Kevin Stefanski and general manager Andrew Berry back next season. That was expected considering they’re just months into long-term contract extensions.

The message to players, what with a 3-8 record and being far closer to a top draft pick than a playoff spot, is mixed.

The Broncos have the fourth-best defense per FTN Fantasy’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

They also rank fourth in stopping the run and sixth against the pass. With the Browns starting left tackle sidelined, they’ll need to pay close attention to protecting Winston’s blind side. Broncos head coach Sean Payton knows Winston well from their days together in New Orleans and, before that, when Winston started for the Buccaneers in the same division.

Denver leads the league in sacks with 44, and Cleveland’s offensive line has allowed the second-most sacks (47). When Winston’s process is sped up, he tends to gift the ball to opposing defensive backs.

In part because of the turnover issues, my power ratings make the Browns closer to an eight-point underdog on the road.

Some are still dangling the Broncos at -5.5 on Monday morning. I recommend laying the points with the home side.

Best Bet: Broncos -5.5 (-122 at FanDuel)

–Field Level Media

Nov 24, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) drops back to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 13

Posted on | by Field Level Media

This time of year can be difficult for bettors. It is not unusual for a struggling NFL team to play well for a day and keep it close against a better team. But if taking such a bet does not sound like a good idea, give one (or more) of the hundreds of player props a try.

With three games on Thanksgiving and another on Black Friday, there are fewer games than usual. However, there are still hundreds of NFL player props available. To help you decide which to bet on, here is our top 10 list of player props for Sunday’s Week 13 slate.

NFL Week 13: Player Props

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Pat Freiermuth, four-plus receptions at +194 (FanDuel)

Freiermuth had four last week in the loss to the Browns and at least that many in each of the first four games of the season. But against a passing team like the Bengals, the Steelers will likely need every weapon in their arsenal to keep up with the Cincinnati passing game. The Bengals’ defense has taken it relatively easy on tight ends this year. So, whether the Steelers are trying to catch up or control the ball, there is a good chance Freiermuth plays a bigger part than usual and makes four-plus receptions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young, O/U 195.5 at -114/-114 (FanDuel)

Those of us who have not paid much attention to the Carolina Panthers this season might be surprised to hear that Bryce Young has been playing pretty well since returning to the starting lineup. He’s thrown for 200-plus yards in two of his past four games and is completing 60-plus percent of his passes. Tampa Bay has a solid run defense. Since the Bucs will probably throw early and often, the Panthers will need Young to throw the ball to catch up and/or be competitive. With how well Young is playing right now, we’ll take the OVER.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, O/U 220.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (DraftKings)

Maye threw for more than 220 passing yards against the Rams and Dolphins, two solid defenses, in his past two games. The Colts’ defense ranks No. 27 in pass defense and has seen opponents average 34 pass attempts and 231.7 yards per game over the past three. Maye has averaged right around 34 attempts and 230 yards over his past three. Take the OVER.

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints

Kyren Williams, O/U 19.5 rushing attempts at -102/-128 (FanDuel)
O/U 82.5 rushing yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
O/U 11.5 receiving yards (DraftKings)

Williams had 16, 15, and 15 carries the past three weeks but had 20-plus in the previous four and has averaged 18.8 per game this season. But he’ll be facing a New Orleans Saints team that has seen opponents run the ball 26.7 times per game and 27.8 at home. The Rams tend to run a little less on the road, but they are fighting to remain in the playoff conversation (just like the Saints). To that end, they’ll put the ball in the hands of their playmaker rather than spread the touches among multiple backs.

New Orleans has been giving up 134.2 yards per game on the ground but has been especially weak against the run at home (163.2 yards per game). Wiliams has gone for over 82.5 yards in three of the five games in which he had 20-plus carries.
But against a Saints team giving up 160-plus at home, take the OVER.

Williams has not been targeted in the passing game the past two weeks (three total). In the eight games where he had at least one catch, he finished with under 11.5 yards in three. He is not a priority in the passing game. Take the UNDER.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

C.J. Stroud, O/U 259.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
Tank Dell, O/U 51.5 receiving yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
O/U 4.5 receptions at +130/-170 (FanDuel)
Nico Collins, O/U longest reception 26.5 yards at -130/+100 (BetMGM)

This should be the ‘get-right’ game C.J. Stroud and the Texans have needed for weeks. Jacksonville has overtaken the Ravens as the worst pass defense in the NFL. Stroud has gone over 259.5 passing yards just once in Houston’s past seven games.

But opponents are averaging 278.3 yards per game this season and close to 300 over the past three games. If Stroud can’t go off against this team with the talent at his disposal …

Tank Dell has gone over 51.5 yards in both games with Nico Collins back in the lineup. But against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed an average of 13.5 receptions for 183.5 yards, Dell should see a few more targets.

Collins will be the primary receiver, of course, but Dell could still see balls thrown his way and that should be enough for him to go OVER both marks. As for Collins, he has had a reception of 28-plus yards in every game but one. Jacksonville has given up 52 pass plays of 20-plus yards and nine of 40-plus.

Take the OVER.

–Field Level Media

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals in the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Week 12 MNF: Chargers-Ravens Preview, Props & Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Brothers and head coaches are the chief plotline Monday night with the aptly labeled HarBowl in Los Angeles.

For the first time since Super Bowl XLVII, the Harbaugh brothers meet again almost 12 years later as John leads his Baltimore Ravens (7-4) into California to test the Chargers (7-3).

Already dueling for wildcard position in the AFC, this matchup finds two teams in good standing for the playoffs win or lose. But a potential tiebreaker in seeding the top seven from the conference comes out of this head-to-head fight for the No. 5 seed and first wildcard position.

No team currently on the bubble has better than a 20% chance to reach the postseason, so a loss isn’t a death knell to either side.

–Pressure is modest on Monday night

The Ravens are currently the No. 6 seed in the playoff picture, one spot behind the Chargers.

The Chargers have played one fewer game due to a bye in Week 5. Remarkably, none of the nine teams currently outside the AFC playoff picture have up to six wins on the season.

Even with a loss on Monday night, the Chargers and Ravens will still have no worse than an 85% chance of making the playoffs.

Those circumstances should allow both teams to play at their best.

We already know the Ravens have one of the most potent offenses in the league. They rank first in the FTN Fantasy Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. And it’s a good thing. Because their defense can be particularly vulnerable, ranking 25th in allowing 362 yards per game.

–Prop Stop: RBs raised by Ravens
Five times the Ravens have allowed 320-plus passing yards in 11 games. Third downs are a problem, and a defense asked to be on the field more than 65 snaps seven times is staring down the barrel at a grind-em-down offensive philosophy that spells doom for the secondary in the second half. A rotation of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, former Ravens backs now leading the Chargers’ productive running game (121.6 yards per game) is ample enough to force the Ravens to play to defend the run.

But Baltimore’s big-play woes in the secondary multiply when they have to commit a safety to slow down an opponent’s running game.

Six of QB Justin Herbert’s 13 TD passes this season were on pass plays of more than 25 yards. He is thriving in play-action with more than 700 yards and three touchdowns off of run fakes since Week 6, which is No. 1 in the NFL.

Big plays are there vertically and in the short screen game to push Herbert across the 300-yard passing mark for the second time this season.

Prop pick: Herbert over 300 passing yards (+220, Fan Duel)

–Chargers can hurt Ravens by air

According to Pro Football Focus, the Ravens’ secondary has the lowest grade (63.0) of all three levels of its defense.

Moreover, their explosive passing plays allowed of 20 or more yards are the league’s second-highest (50).

As a result, there’s no question that the Chargers can get after this Ravens defense through the air. Quarterback Justin Herbert is known to push the ball down the field.

The Oregon product ranks ninth in intended air yards, averaging 8.6 per attempt.

This metric is particularly crucial because it shows the average distance of his passes from behind the line of scrimmage even before the throw reaches the intended receiver.

There aren’t a ton of check-downs in this Chargers offense, and Herbert has been extremely precise with his accuracy, having thrown just one interception the entire season.

While they generally like to play a more controlled game, the Chargers are more than capable of holding their own in a shootout like last week in their 34-27 victory over the Bengals.

Herbert completed only 17 of his 36 pass attempts but still threw for 297 yards. That stat line shows the aggressiveness of the Chargers’ downfield strategy, which could be pretty effective against the Ravens’ pass defense.

The Chargers offense intrigues me the most because of their chances of putting up some points — everyone does against the Ravens this season. Their team total of 23.5 points is available at DraftKings and well within my projection.

Pick: Chargers team total over 23.5 (-125)

–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Nov 18, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush (10) warms up before the game against the Houston Texans at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 12

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If watching the Cleveland Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football makes you think twice about betting on Sunday games — well, you don’t have to. If you don’t want to fall victim to the next upset, bet on one of the many NFL player props offered by online sportsbooks instead.

“Many” doesn’t really do the number of player props available for each game justice; there easily be a couple of hundred per game. But don’t worry about needing to review them all. All you need to do is take a look at our top 10 NFL player props for Week 12, listed in no particular order.

NFL Week 12: Player Props

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

Cooper Rush, O/U 201.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
O/U 33.5 pass attempts at -102/-128 (FanDuel)
O/U 18.5 completions at -130/+100 (DraftKings)

For most of the season, the Cowboys have insisted on trying to establish the run even though they must know it isn’t a strength. But they changed course in their Week 11 loss to the Houston Texans, and Cooper Rush threw 55 passes, of which 32 were caught for 354 yards.

It might seem hard to believe after the 13-for-23, 45-yard debacle in a 34-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Nov. 10, but Rush is not a bad quarterback. After all, he was 5-1 as a starter when called to fill in for Dak Prescott in the 2021 and ‘22 seasons.

Just as they did when they lost 34-10 to the Texans, the Cowboys will fall behind against the Commanders and will need to pass if they are going to try to catch up. So, the volume of attempts for Rush will be there again, as will the yardage against a lackluster Washington pass defense.

Don’t expect Rush to throw the ball 50-plus times again, but his attempts aren’t likely to fall in the mid-20s, either, as in the previous two starts. Opponents are averaging 27.1 attempts per game vs. Washington — but they are also running the ball 30.5 times per game.

Dallas will not run the ball 30 times; they average 21.5 carries per game this season. Take the OVER for Rush passing yards.

If you’re going to take the OVER on his passing yards and attempts, then it almost makes sense to take the OVER for his pass completions. Opponents are completing 65.8 percent of their passes vs. the Commanders. At that rate, to clear 19.5 completions, he’ll need to throw roughly 30 passes.

Yeah, take the OVER.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants

Mike Evans, O/U 50.5 receiving yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
O/U 3.5 receptions at -140/+105 (BetMGM)

Baker Mayfield fared well in the first couple of games with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but the dynamic duo suffered injuries in their Oct. 21 game against the Baltimore Ravens. Godwin is out for the season, but Evans is expected to return this week against the Giants.

If they are going to stay in the wild-card hunt, the Buccaneers will need to win this game after four consecutive losses. To that end, Mayfield probably will target his star wide receiver early and often. It would be surprising if he didn’t have four catches in the first half.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

Christian McCaffrey, O/U 17.5 rushing attempts at +100/-130 (BetMGM)
O/U 108.5 rushing and receiving yards at -113/-115 (FanDuel)

Jordan Love, O/U 0.5 interceptions at -125/-105 (DraftKings)

With Brock Purdy out, the 49ers probably will lean on the run game. When you have the most dangerous offensive player in the NFL in your backfield — Christian McCaffrey — you should. He had 19 carries last week vs. Seattle. He’ll probably get a similar number this week, if not higher.

Without Purdy on the field and backup Brandon Allen in his place, it’s hard to know whether McCaffrey will be more productive for the passing game or the running game or equally proficient. But you typically can count on him being productive. He’s gone for 106 and 107 combined rushing and receiving yards, respectively, in the two games he’s played since his return from an injury that had sidelined him to start the season.

It would not be a stretch for him to get a few more yards and exceed a total of 108.5 rushing/receiving yards. Take the OVER.

Jordan Love has thrown at least one interception in every game he has played this season. The 49ers defense has 11 picks on the year. They’ll make it 12 — if not 13 or 14 — in this game. Take the OVER.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

Tim Settle Jr. O/U .25 sacks at +105/-135 (DraftKings)
Joe Mixon, O/U 21.5 rushing attempts at -110/-120 (BetMGM)

The Houston defense is among the league leaders in sacks this season with 34. Tennessee’s quarterbacks are among the most sacked in the league. Danielle Hunter co-leads the team in sacks, making him a solid choice. However, the odds on his OVER are -176, while Tim Settle Jr. has plus money odds.

With the Titans having injury issues with the interior of the offensive line, a defensive tackle has a shot at breaking through and getting credit for at least half of a sack. Take the OVER.

The Texans have been at their best when Mixon is getting 20-plus carries; every time he has, he’s gone for 100-plus yards. It might be hard to gain 100 or more yards against the Titans’ defense, but Houston will make sure he gets his carries.

–Field Level Media

Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams dives into the end zone to celebrate scoring a touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024.

Lions are Super Bowl favorites for first time ever

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The Kansas City Chiefs finally took their first loss of the season on Sunday, and while 9-1 is still a strong record to have, it caused a noteworthy shift in the NFL landscape.

The Detroit Lions surpassed the Chiefs to become the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl at several sportsbooks — for the first time in the woebegone franchise’s history.

The Chiefs were the unchallenged favorites to win Super Bowl LIX ever since notching their second straight championship last February. They remained atop odds boards despite several shaky performances and near-losses throughout their first nine games.

Before the Chiefs lost 30-21 to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, the Lions steamrolled the Jacksonville Jaguars 52-6, scoring touchdowns on their first seven drives and never punting. Jared Goff had 412 passing yards and four touchdowns in the Lions’ eighth straight victory.

That combination of events put Detroit, a franchise that had not won a playoff game between 1991 and 2023, over the top.

“For the first time in the history of the franchise, the Lions are now the favorites (+400) to win the Super Bowl,” Fanatics Sportsbook posted on social media Monday.

At BetMGM, the Lions are a mere +325 to win the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs at +450. They’re the +350 favorites at both Fanduel Sportsbook and DraftKings, with Kansas City running second (+500 at Fanduel, +450 at DraftKings).

The Bills, who improved to 9-2 by beating the rival Chiefs, sit third on the board at each of those sportsbooks — +600 at DraftKings, +650 at Fanduel and +700 at BetMGM.

–Field Level Media

Nov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (28) signals after rushing for a first down during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Week 11 MNF: Cowboys-Texans Preview, Props & Prediction

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The battle of the Lone Star State plays out in primetime Monday night when the Texans visit the Cowboys, who are winless at home and trotting out backup Cooper Rush at quarterback with Dak Prescott done for the season.

Losing streaks usher each team into “Monday Night Football.” Houston coughed up a 23-7 lead against the Lions to suffer a second straight loss, while Dallas is winless in four consecutive games and starting a window of three games in 10 days.

The injury report is particularly critical. The Texans’ defensive line won’t have starters Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) and Folorunso Fatukasi (foot) available.

But Houston does welcome back wide receiver Nico Collins from an injured reserve stint due to a hamstring problem.

Dallas will have to navigate the rest of the season without Prescott, who required season-ending surgery for his hamstring issue. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was a late addition to the injury report, though the team does expect him to play Monday.

Cowboys cornerbacks DaRon Bland (foot) and Jordan Lewis (neck) won’t see any action after being ruled out.

While the injury report is a big reason the Texans moved two points — from laying five points to -7 — this matchup might not be the slam dunk that some view it as on paper.

–Problems in Big D
Dallas was already in trouble even before the Prescott injury. Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones has drawn plenty of criticism for how he put the roster together.

Jones cited salary cap constraints as the reason for passing on signing running Derrick Henry at a cut rate during the offseason when he was available as a free agent, and didn’t even consider top-dollar signings such as Saquon Barkley.

The decision looks worse each week. Henry leads the league in yardage, yards per carry and touchdowns and Barkley is putting together an MVP highlight reel for the Eagles.

Jones even doubled down on his comments by saying that while Henry is having a great year with Baltimore, it’s unlikely that the nine-year veteran would’ve had similar success with the Cowboys because they run a different type of offense.

The problem with this statement is that Henry was successful as a straight-ahead runner for the Titans, and one has to expect that a Hall of Fame-level running back in peak condition can still get the job done in various schemes.

Dallas clearly had a void at running back after opting not to resign Tony Pollard. Henry might have been able to mask some of the deficiencies within the Cowboys’ offensive line, which has taken a step back relative to recent dominant front five groups.

Defensively, the Cowboys were always more of an opportunistic team that benefited from turnovers, which isn’t always a sustainable metric.

Nonetheless, even with their problems, I’m not sure they warrant the Cowboys catching seven points as home underdogs.

–Prop Stop
Joe Mixon has become the bread-and-butter option in the Houston offense.

With Collins back on the field and Dallas’ health concerns in the secondary, the Cowboys are certain to be on their heels anticipating C.J. Stroud will push the ball to Collins and Tank Dell.

It’s Mixon who could be in for a lunchpail shift Monday. That’s because Dallas has been steamrolled in the running game the past four games, allowing 173.5 yards per game.

Mixon has 24 carries or more in four consecutive games and five 100-yard rushing games despite missing three due to injury.

Prop pick: Joe Mixon 100+ rushing yards, +152 (FanDuel)

–A first-half wager worth considering
We’ll learn plenty about the Cowboys’ resolve Monday and over the next 10 days.

Whether they can put forth a better effort after last week’s 34-6 loss to the Eagles is not clear. Between Rush and Trey Lance, the Cowboys longest pass play went all of 10 yards. The Cowboys had 49 yards passing while averaging 2.6 yards per play.

It’s difficult to think that they can play much worse, and I know the public is lining up to fade them against the Texans.

We must note that teams have struggled to get back up to speed in their following game after facing the Lions. Detroit is known to be a very physical team, and its opponents are just 2-6 straight up and 0-8 against the spread in their next game.

Those numbers are certainly enough reason for me to pause on backing Houston.

However, Collins’ return should bring Houston juice.

With Collins on the field, Houston went 4-1. While losing Stefon Diggs to an ACL injury remains a colossal blow to the Texans, Collins is more than capable of occupying that No. 1 wide receiver position.

The Texans went scoreless for the final two quarters against the Lions, and I think there will be a concerted effort to get the offense up and running again with a fast start.

Houston ranks seventh in first-half scoring with 14.2 points per game, while the Dallas defense allows a league-worst 24.3 at home in this spot. They’ve given up points in 18 consecutive quarters, a sign of weary legs and lagging effort.

As a result, I prefer to pass on the points spread altogether and back the Texans to go over their first-half team total of 11.5 points.

Best bet: Texans 1H team total over 11.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)

–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media