Tag: championship weekend

Nov 30, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) looks for a receiver during the second half against Washington Huskies cornerback Jordan Shaw (3) at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Top 10 player props for college football’s Championship Weekend

Posted on | by Field Level Media

There is extra electricity in the air for college football fans. If this weekend’s conference championship games live up to the hype, we are in for some epic football. Fans can turn that excitement up a notch by getting in on the action with some college football player props.

With fewer games, there aren’t as many options to review, but there are still hundreds of player props for your betting pleasure. But which ones should you go with? We’ve got a few ideas. Here’s our list of the top 10 player props for conference championship weekend.

Odds via FanDuel unless otherwise stated:

Big 12: Iowa State vs. Arizona State

Cam Skattebo, O/U 119.5 Rushing Yards at -114/-114; Alt Rushing Yards: 125+ at +102

Iowa State ranks 96th in run defense and has allowed a 100-yard rusher in four of its last six games. Skattebo has been impressive for most of the season, cracking 100+ rushing yards in six of 11 games, including his last two.

He has had 20+ carries in all but three games, and as long as he logs 20+ vs. Iowa State’s questionable run defense, he’ll go OVER his total.

If you aren’t a fan of minus-money odds, consider putting your money on one of his alternate markets. You’ll need to go with 125+ rushing yards to get to plus-money odds. Skattebo has gone over 125 yards six of the eight times he has tallied at least 20 carries. He also went for 150+ yards (+205 odds) in five games.

Rocco Becht, O/U 235.5 Passing Yards at -115/-115 (odds via BetMGM)

Iowa State does not have a good run defense, so the best way the Cyclones can neutralize Skattebo is by throwing their way to an early lead and forcing Arizona State to try to keep up via their own passing game.

Iowa State has been a solid passing team this season, averaging 258 yards per game, 36th in Division I.

Becht threw for OVER 235.5 yards in eight games this season, including six of the last eight. Arizona State has allowed 243.3 passing yards per game in its last three contests, and necessity will push Becht’s total OVER 235.5 yards.

Southeastern Conference: Georgia vs. Texas

Quinn Ewers, O/U 238.5 Passing Yards at -117/-117 (odds via Caesars)

Ewers is a capable passer and has some solid skill position players at his disposal, but he threw for just 211 yards against Georgia on Oct. 19. The last time he notched 238.5+ yards was against Florida on Nov. 9 (333). Of the 10 games he has played in, he went UNDER that mark in six.

Georgia has allowed 196.2 passing yards per game this season, and the Bulldogs have averaged UNDER 200 yards allowed against their last three opponents despite giving up 303 to Georgia Tech last weekend.

Texas will need to throw to beat Georgia, but don’t bank on Ewers going off. Take the UNDER.

Carson Beck, O/U .5 Interceptions at -148/+108 (odds via Caesars)

Beck went through a six-game span in the middle of the season where he struggled with turnovers, throwing all 12 of his interceptions during that stretch, including three picks against Texas.

He hasn’t thrown one in his last three games, but with the Texas pass rush keeping him off balance for most of the day, he’ll throw at least one.
Take the OVER.

Dominic Lovett, O/U 52.5 receiving yards at -114/-114

Texas has the No. 1 pass defense in the country, allowing just 143.7 yards per game. When these teams faced each other in October, the Longhorns held Beck to 175 yards through the air. Of that total, Lovett had 35. In 12 games this season, he’s gone OVER 52.5 just three times and once in his last eight games.

There is no reason to think he’ll do better against the Texas defense this time. Take the UNDER.

Big Ten: Penn State vs. Oregon

Dillon Gabriel, O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns at -114/-114

Gabriel has thrown a touchdown pass in 11 of 12 games this season and at least two in 10 of them. Penn State’s pass defense looks great on paper and has given up just 11 passing touchdowns this season, but Oregon has the 14th-best passing offense in the country at 277.6 yards per game.

Gabriel will toss at least two scores against the Nittany Lions. Take the OVER.

Tyler Warren, O/U 69.5 Receiving Yards at -117/-117

Penn State’s big tight end is arguably the best in the nation and is a solid receiver, with 69.5+ yards in three of his last four games and five overall this season. He will undoubtedly be one of Drew Allar’s top targets in this game, but stats for the Nittany Lions are somewhat inflated this year due to a relatively easy schedule.

But we do have one game we can use as a reference: Ohio State. Warren had four catches for 47 yards (31 coming on one reception) in that game. This game will be a lot like that one. Take the UNDER.

Atlantic Coast Conference: Clemson vs. SMU

Phil Mafah, O/U 82.5 Rushing Yards at -114/-114

Mafah had 17 yards on 17 carries against Pitt on Nov. 16 and tallied just 14 yards on three rushes against the Citadel the following week. In a must-win game last week, the Tigers’ lead back managed 66 yards on 20 carries. He’s a solid running back, but he’s been overworked and has hit a wall.

Don’t expect him to get past the wall against SMU’s No. 4 run defense, which allows just 95.8 yards per game. Take the UNDER.

Brashard Smith, 100+ Rushing Yards at +150 (odds via DraftKings)

Smith has carried the ball 193 times for the Mustangs this year, gaining 1,157 yards (96.4 per game) and scoring 14 touchdowns in the process. He failed to clear 70 in SMU’s last two games but has notched 100+ yards in six of 12 games this season.

Clemson does not have a bad defense, but it isn’t the dominant unit it was when the Tigers competed for national championships. It was gashed by the better-run teams it faced this season. Don’t count on them to slow Smith down.

Take Smith to run for 100+, but if you want to play it a little safer, the odds for Smith eclipsing 90 yards are +100.

–Travis Pulver, Field Level Media

Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tate Rodemaker (18) throws the ball during the first half against the Florida Gators at Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL on Saturday, November 25, 2023. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]

Championship Weekend: Players to watch in 2023 title games

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Transfer portal got you down? College Football Playoff envy striking as December arrives?

Field Level Media’s college football writers dial up the elixir for those facing the reality of missing out, with a game-by-game watchlist for conference championship matchups, the official start of the postseason on Friday night.

We’re here with the guide to the names to know in the biggest games of the weekend.

Maybe he sounds as if he’s straight out of Whoville, but we’ve trimmed the rosters to the most important names such as the guy now tasked with taking down Louisville.

Read on and get ready to take your own measurements of Florida State’s championship stock with backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker, or find out which fresh-faced SEC safety might be building the resume to signal he will flip the field in Atlanta.

–Pac-12 Championship (Oregon vs. Washington, Friday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
Oregon QB Bo Nix
The Heisman betting favorite entering championship weekend, Nix has completed 78.6 percent of his 401 pass attempts, with 37 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Strong-armed and mobile, he’s only been getting better, with 1,569 yards and 16 touchdowns in the past four games.

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
The lefty spins the ball as well as any quarterback in the country. His production dipped in the second half of the season, but he still has 3,899 passing yards and 32 touchdowns … and now he should have a full complement of wideouts with Jalen McMillan having returned from injury.

Oregon RB Bucky Irving
The junior is a multi-dimensional threat in a Ducks offense that plays fast and has lots of speed. Irving already has posted his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season, and he’s added 48 catches for 379 yards in 2023.

Washington WR Rome Odunze
He is one of three finalists for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation’s top receiver (an honor that Oregon’s Troy Franklin was deserving of, too). Odunze has 13 touchdown catches among his 73 receptions for 1,326 yards.

Washington DE Bralen Trice
Can the Huskies pressure Oregon QB Bo Nix and get him out of rhythm? Oregon has allowed only five sacks all season, but Trice (five sacks, 10 quarterback hurries) will try to make an impact in the Ducks backfield.

–Big 12 Championship (Texas vs. Oklahoma State, Saturday, Noon ET, ABC)
Texas QB Quinn Ewers
Ewers has thrown for 2,709 yards and 17 touchdowns and has also rushed for five scores. He threw for multiple touchdowns just twice in Big 12 play after throwing for eight combined in three nonconference games.

Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon
Gordon leads FBS with 1,580 rushing yards and is second in rushing touchdowns (20), total touchdowns (21) and all-purpose yards (1,852). He had 282 rushing yards against West Virginia, the most for any FBS player this season. Gordon is one of three finalists for the Doak Walker Award.

Oklahoma State LB Nickolas Martin
The redshirt sophomore leads the Big 12 with 120 tackles and is tied for second with 16 tackles for loss. He also has six sacks. Martin has five games with at least 10 tackles, including 17 in two games.

Texas DT T’Vondre Sweat
Sweat, a finalist for the Outland Trophy, is the highest-graded interior defensive lineman by Pro Football Focus, at 91.6. Sweat has 40 tackles, eight for loss, with two sacks and seven quarterback hurries.

Texas WR Xavier Worthy
The junior has a career-high 67 catches for 883 yards and five touchdowns. Worthy had a season-high 10 catches for 137 yards against TCU on Nov. 11.

–SEC Championship (Georgia vs. Alabama, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS)
Georgia TE Brock Bowers
The best tight end in the country was dominating with 24 receptions for 410 yards and four touchdowns in a three-game span before hurting an ankle against Vanderbilt in mid-October. Bowers returned to the field four weeks later and had TD catches in both games he played in November. If healthy, Georgia certainly has some tricks in mind with the versatile player who has 31 career touchdowns (26 receiving, five rushing).

Alabama QB Jalen Milroe
He was demoted for a Week 3 game at South Florida and his sideline leadership impressed coach Nick Saban that day. Milroe regained the starting job the following day and the Crimson Tide flourished under him. He has accounted for 33 touchdowns (21 passing, 12 rushing) while adeptly running the offense.

Georgia QB Carson Beck
Two-time national champion Stetson Bennett ran out of eligibility and there certainly hasn’t even been a slight dropoff. Beck has pinpoint accuracy and has five 300-yard outings. He has displayed good leadership but the real test will be how he handles the increased pressure this Saturday and during the College Football Playoffs.

Georgia S Tykee Smith
The latest star DB for the Bulldogs, Smith stepped up to be one of the top defenders on the Bulldogs and had interceptions in three straight games early in the season. Always seems to be near the ball and ready to make an impact play. Smith is a highly experienced player as he played two seasons at West Virginia before transferring to Georgia following the 2020 season.

Alabama SS Caleb Downs
The freshman stepped right in and quickly made a name for himself. Downs leads the Crimson Tide with 95 tackles and also has two interceptions, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. He also had an 85-yard punt return for touchdown against Chattanooga.

–American Athletic Championship (Tulane vs. SMU, Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ABC)
SMU QB Kevin Jennings
Jennings is filling in for injured Preston Stone, the AAC’s second-most efficient and third-most productive passer in 2023. He has seen limited action in two seasons with productive moments. Surrounded by a bevy of talented skill players and the conference’s top scoring defense, Jennings doesn’t have to do it all.

SMU DE Elijah Robert
Tied for second in the conference with 8.5 sacks, Robert will be counted on to disrupt Michael Pratt, the top-rated passer in the conference. Pratt is also an effective runner so Robert and his teammates will have to contain him when the pressure forces Pratt to move.

Tulane QB Michael Pratt
He’s not only No. 10 in the country in passing efficiency and an effective runner, but Pratt also is a winner. In the last two seasons, the Green Wave is 21-2 in games he has started and generally he has found ways to produce points when necessary to salvage victory in tight games.

Tulane RB Makhi Hughes
He emerged from an early-season competition to become the featured back and has been a tone-setter for the offense since game five when he broke out with 123 rushing yards and two touchdowns against UAB. That started a stretch of
seven 100-yard performances in the last eight games, including a season-high 166 yards and a touchdown against Texas-San Antonio last week.

Tulane DB Lance Robinson
He leads the conference’s best team at making interceptions. Robinson is tied for the individual lead in the conference with four interceptions and the Green Wave have a conference-leading 15 interceptions as a team. Robinson and friends figure to be ball hawking even more than usual as they face a relatively inexperienced backup QB in Jennings.

–ACC Championship (Florida State vs. Louisville, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
Florida State QB Tate Rodemaker
The redshirt junior was thrust into the starting role after Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending leg injury on Nov. 18. A former three-star recruit, he’s been Travis’ backup for years, knows the system and was praised by coach Mike Norvell for his mental toughness. One solid game and Rodemaker could be playing in the CFP.

Florida State WR Keon Coleman
It would help Rodemaker tremendously to establish an early connection with Coleman, a projected first-round draft pick with 11 touchdowns this season. Coleman caught just one pass for 24 yards against Florida. He’s a big target at 6-foot-4 and has a reputation for making difficult catches.

Florida State DE Jared Verse
Like Coleman, Verse could hear his name called on the first night of the draft this April. He’s coming off a season-high 2.5 sacks against Florida to get to seven on the season, but his production has been hot and cold. He’s had three multi-sack games and a half-sack across the other nine.

Louisville QB Jack Plummer
No relation to Jake the Snake, this Plummer is making his own name. He arrived at Louisville after four seasons at Purdue and one at Cal, and he’s completed two-thirds of his passes, including 70 percent against AP-ranked opponents. He’s never played in a game quite this important.

Louisville RB Jawhar Jordan
Second in the ACC with 1,076 rushing yards and third with 13 touchdowns, Jordan is a critical piece of the Louisville offense. Florida State ranks 10th in the nation in pass defense, so the Cardinals may look to establish themselves on the ground. Jordan averaged 5.4 yards per carry against the Seminoles in last year’s regular-season meeting.

–Big Ten Championship (Michigan vs. Iowa, Saturday, 8 p.m., FOX)
Michigan RB Blake Corum
Sidelined during the postseason last year by a left knee injury, Corum came back better than ever in his senior year. Corum leads Division I with 22 rushing touchdowns and has been a workhorse down the stretch, averaging 25.3 carries in the last three games.

Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy
A two-year starter, McCarthy has a big and accurate arm, completing 74.3 percent of his attempts this season. He wasn’t asked to do too much in four November games, throwing just one touchdown, but is capable of carrying his team if the running game stalls.

Michigan DB Mike Sainristil
If the Wolverines need a big play from their secondary, Sainristil is usually the player who makes it. The senior has picked off five passes, including a pair in a seven-point win over Maryland. He returned interceptions for touchdowns against Michigan State and Rutgers.

Iowa LB Jay Higgins
The Hawkeyes’ stout defense is spearheaded by Higgins, whose 60 solo tackles are 27 more than any of his teammates. The senior has recorded double-digit total tackles in eight games while also forcing a fumble and recovering two more.

Iowa QB Deacon Hill
Thrust into a starting role after ex-Wolverines quarterback Cade McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury, Hill has served as a game manager. He’s passed for fewer than 1,000 yards despite eight starts and 11 appearances. Hill will have to come up with his best outing of the season for Iowa to pull an upset.

–Field Level Media

Georgia coach Kirby Smart could be celebrating another CFP bid in Atlanta this weekend -- or praying for the committee's mercy. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

What’s at stake in CFB this weekend? A team-by-team breakdown

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Stakes are sky-high in college football conference championship games, where a loss multiplies the likelihood of missing out on the postseason destination of choice.

That’s true of nearly every Power 5 conference title game.

Even for No. 1 Georgia, with back-to-back national championships and 29 wins in a row, a defeat spikes doubt about its spot in the College Football Playoff.

And for No. 2 Michigan, losing to Iowa in Indianapolis could push the Wolverines well below the CFP semifinals line of entry at No. 4, what with Oregon at No. 5 and Texas and Alabama entering their trophy-hunting spots believing a win warrants a playoff spot.

What’s at stake for the teams kicking off the postseason on the first weekend of December? Here’s a team-by-team snapshot.

No. 1 Georgia (12-0, vs. No. 8 Alabama in SEC Championship)
Win, and Georgia is the No. 1 seed playing the perceived weakest of the final four in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1. If rankings hold, that means ACC champion Florida State minus dynamic quarterback Jordan Travis. If Florida State stumbles — even in a close win — a Pac-12 team is the most likely opponent, but No. 6 Ohio State or longshot Texas, ranked seventh, could also slide into No. 4. The Seminoles are the most vulnerable team in the top four entering the weekend.

Where would Georgia land if the Bulldogs lose to Alabama?

Stacking one-loss options for the committee might be less complicated than some are asserting. By going undefeated in the SEC regular season, a close loss to the Crimson Tide keeps the Bulldogs squarely in the conversation at No. 4 and likely ahead of current No. 4 FSU because of the Travis injury.

Prediction: CFP Semifinal, Sugar Bowl

No. 2 Michigan (12-0, vs No. 16 Iowa in Big Ten Championship)
Michigan can’t lose to two-loss Iowa and expect to be anywhere near the CFP semifinals. The Hawkeyes played one ranked team all season, and lost 31-0 to Penn State. We envision a similar result, and perhaps one or two us-against-the-world references postgame.

Prediction: CFP Semifinal, Rose Bowl

No. 3 Washington (12-0, vs. No. 5 Oregon in Pac-12 Championship)

Prediction: Fiesta Bowl

No. 4 Florida State (12-0, vs. No. 14 Louisville in ACC Championship)
Before the bully brigade cries foul about a Power 5 team going undefeated and missing out on the playoff, the committee has already shared its assessment of FSU minus Travis. And it’s not sparkling.

Note the Tuesday comments from committee chair Boo Corrigan, NC State’s athletic director who should expect some interesting holiday mail from Tallahassee, on the current view of the Seminoles.

“Different team, right? Different team without Jordan Travis,” Corrigan said. “Tate Rodemaker … has done well and has kind of managed the game.”

What also hurts the view of FSU’s potential title game win? Louisville’s loss last week to Kentucky. The Wildcats finished 3-5 in the SEC and lost 51-13 to Georgia and by four touchdowns to Alabama. Can the committee stack up the Seminoles on the same footing as a one-loss Georgia team if it comes to it?

Prediction: Orange Bowl

No. 5 Oregon (11-1, vs. No. 3 Washington in Pac-12 Championship)
Pummeling Oregon State caught the attention of the committee — and they said as much — but perhaps disheartening for the Ducks was still being slotted behind a shaky, but undefeated, Florida State team. That certifies the path to the CFP semifinals involves beating Washington on Friday, and Oregon likely has no other route to getting into the final four.

As Heisman ballots trickle in with Oregon’s Bo Nix as a favorite, the Ducks have momentum despite losing the regular-season meeting with Washington.

Who wouldn’t love championship weekend kicking off with an “upset”?

Prediction: CFP Semifinal, Sugar Bowl

No. 7 Texas (11-1, vs. Oklahoma State in Big 12 Championship)
Win or lose, the ultimate destination for the Longhorns is entirely in the hands of the CFP committee. Unless upsets reign to stir chaos and realign the pecking order of the rankings, Texas likely needs multiple teams in the current top four to fall. Not only are all four undefeated, there’s a question as to whether one-loss Texas could be viewed as a better option than potential one-loss teams such as Georgia and Washington should they lose their conference championship games.

The assertion is also based on the marginal surge it could expect from beating Oklahoma State combined with the salivating praise the committee has had for the Pac-12 title game participants. There is no indication the committee would place one-loss Texas ahead of one-loss Washington given the consistently glowing reviews of the Huskies from the committee. And No. 6 Ohio State, idle after its only loss of the season at Michigan, would be back in the conversation if Georgia, Michigan and Oregon all win but Florida State doesn’t dominate Louisville.

Prediction: Cotton Bowl vs. No. 9 Missouri

No. 8 Alabama (11-1, vs. Georgia in SEC Championship)
Beat Georgia, a decisive No. 1 in the mind of the CFP committee, and Alabama is likely to enter the semifinals ranked No. 2 behind Michigan.

Lose to Georgia, and head coach Nick Saban takes on the same posture he did at this time last year: Alabama is good enough to be in the final four but left the committee no choice but to leave it out.

Prediction: Fiesta Bowl

No. 14 Louisville (10-2, vs. Florida State in ACC Championship)
The sting of rivalry week lingers for the Cardinals, who at No. 10 in the rankings had a chance to set themselves up for a golden opportunity in the ACC title game against a Florida State team rediscovering an identity with a new starting quarterback. Even a side door entry to the CFP appears to be slammed shut with the imagined scenario of a win Saturday coupled with losses by Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama standing as their best possible pipedream.

Losing to Kentucky destroyed Louisville’s shot at a more glamorous bowl bid,

Prediction: Peach Bowl

No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3, vs. Texas in Big 12 Championship)
Maybe the Cowboys have a different view on the weekend proceedings, but beating Texas might not be meaningful in the big picture because of the at-large options available such as Ohio State and Notre Dame, plus potentially Oregon or Washington, Alabama and the Longhorns.

The Cowboys are still a draw, and spend holiday week preparing for the only bowl game with an edible mascot. Potential opposition includes the Fighting Irish and Auburn. We’ll toast to that.

Prediction: Pop-Tarts Bowl

No. 22 Tulane (11-1, vs. SMU in AAC Championship)
Another New Year’s Six bowl on a national stage awaits the Green Wave with a win Saturday, and getting there sets up another massive showcase game rarely available to champions of the AAC. Tulane made the most of it last season, beating Southern Cal in one of the more thrilling 2022 bowl games (46-45).

Prediction: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

No. 24 Liberty (12-0, vs. New Mexico State in CUSA Championship)
A perfect record hasn’t piqued the interest of the CFP committee yet, and only a headline-grabbing win Friday coupled with a Tulane loss might do the job this late in the game. A Tulane loss to SMU isn’t purely good news for Liberty in the Group of Six/New Year’s Six sphere. That’s because the committee could easily place SMU — or MAC champion Toledo — ahead of Liberty in the final rankings on Sunday.

Prediction: Cure Bowl

–Field Level Media