
Tag: divisional playoff


AFC Championship Game Betting Primer: ‘Heavyweight fight’ at QB
Now do you believe in the 2023-24 version of Patrick Mahomes? He looked every bit the NFL’s best player in the dramatic divisional round win over the Buffalo Bills.
There is only one MVP for this season, though, and it’s Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens quarterback crushed the doubters last week with an exceptional performance.
So which guy is going to blink?
We’ll present our case, a play on one of these teams and a bonus bet below.
THE HEADLINER
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
When: Sunday.
Time, TV: 3 p.m. ET, CBS.
Odds: Ravens -4, total 44.5 (DraftKings).
Aspiring handicappers can use AFC Championship Game betting statistics to back either team.
There is a great deal of information — and we’re going to inundate you with the numbers — so take the stats you like the best.
The momentum is on the Ravens’ side, with the line being bet up to -4 from an opening number of -3.5.
For Kansas City: Mahomes is terrific in the underdog role. Sunday marks the sixth time he and the Chiefs have opened at +3 or higher. He is 5-0 against the spread in those games, including one in 2020 against the Ravens.
For Baltimore: The Ravens are catching the Chiefs in a strange-stat situation. Teams in a game immediately after facing the Bills, as KC did last week, are 24-41-1 ATS over the past four seasons, including 5-11-1 ATS this season. And teams who beat Josh Allen in the playoffs are 0-4 straight up in the next game.
There were questions about Jackson’s playoff shortcomings — he’s not one to consistently cover as a home favorite. Jackson is 29-10 straight up but only 16-23 against the spread when favored at home.
And this is not great for those hoping to bet on the Ravens to cover: Of 220 quarterbacks — as home favorites — in games spanning the past two decades, Jackson ranks 211th against the spread.
And then he went out last week and played lights out.
Speaking of lights, Jackson backers can take solace in this betting stat: He’s 16-6 straight up and 14-8 ATS in night games. He’s won eight consecutive night games straight up.
And at home, Jackson has won eight of 10 straight up and is 6-4 ATS.
Mahomes is certainly the main hurdle, but Jackson is saying all the right things this week.
“I don’t like competing against him at all,” Jackson said with a laugh. “He’s a great quarterback. It’s a no-brainer; he’s definitely a Hall of Famer.
“I believe it’s two up-and-coming greats going toe to toe, like a heavyweight fight, a heavyweight matchup. That’s what I see.”
Kansas City will be without standout guard Joe Thuney, but Isiah Pacheco says his toe injury will not prevent him from playing.
Sunday’s game is the Ravens’ first conference championship game since their Super Bowl-winning run in 2012.
The Chiefs have won at least two playoff games in five consecutive seasons and Mahomes is 13-3 as a playoff starter.
The Ravens plan to make that 13-4 by keeping possession and accentuating the ground game; Jackson accounted for 100 yards rushing by himself last week against the Texans.
Baltimore sits third in both EPA (Expected Points Added) per rush and rushing success rate, and are No. 5 on Pro Football Focus’ ranking of rushing grades.
Much has been made of the Chiefs’ defensive improvement, but against the run, KC is 28th in EPA per play allowed. According to Pro Football Focus, they receive a run defense grade ranking of 18th.
The question boils down to whether the Chiefs’ commitment to stop the Ravens’ ground game will cost them when Jackson — in play action — gains traction throwing the ball.
Can Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, et al make winning plays? The likely answer is “some of the time.”
With that tepid endorsement, we’ll follow with a similar sentiment: Patrick Mahomes is too good to be on a team suffering a playoff blowout, but Lamar Jackson and the home-field advantage are too good to dismiss.
The bet: Ravens adjusted spread -2.5 (-175 at BetMGM).
BONUS
The Ravens looked dominant on defense; the Chiefs believe they can hold down the Baltimore ground game.
The second-half unders in KC games this season, according to Action Network, are a staggering 17-2.
Parlay that with a near-sure thing and hope Mahomes stays upright.
The bet: Two-leg parlay, the second-half UNDER 21.5 points with Mahomes to throw for 200+ yards (+164 at DraftKings).
–Field Level Media

NFC Playoff Betting Primer: End of Love story?
We love the Love story, but the final chapter is expected to be completed Saturday in Santa Clara.
Quarterback Jordan Love piloted the Packers’ magical ride, from legions of fans lamenting the Green Bay departure of the wise one, Aaron Rodgers, to convincing themselves they’re far better off with No. 10 behind center.
The 49ers aren’t worried, and there’s a major reason for their confidence.
See how our NFC playoff best bet developed, and catch our bonus bet and a player prop below.
THE HEADLINER
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
When: Saturday.
Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS.
Odds: 49ers -9.5, total 50.5.
There is no dismissing the special sauce concocted by Packers coach Matt LaFleur and his quarterback Jordan Love.
Green Bay has been dominant down the stretch this season and proved itself with a blowout of Dallas in the wild-card round.
San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan and his staff saw it, digested it and have very likely solved the major challenges.
The 49ers, dominant the past couple of seasons, are routinely favored by double digits. More often than not, the oddsmakers didn’t reach high enough.
With a relatively clean injury report, San Francisco is set to do what it usually does when its stars are healthy: win and cover.
The big boys – Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey – are ready to play Saturday night and assuming four quarters of health, the 49ers will be moving on to the NFC title game next week.
When Samuel and McCaffrey start, San Francisco is 20-3 straight up and 16-7 against the spread (ATS) over the past 23 such games.
In the past 29 games McCaffrey has started, the Niners covered 19 times.
With a raucous crowd comfortably fueled up on a Saturday night, let’s bring the home field and quarterback Brock Purdy into the conversation.
Over the past 12 home games, Purdy is 10-2 straight up, 8-4 ATS. And those spreads were frequently big numbers.
We don’t want to belittle Green Bay’s chances, so we’ll tease the number down a little – but we’ll still use San Francisco in our wager.
Our second leg is simple, the 49ers start quickly and score early. According to Action Network numbers, San Francisco was 11-4-2 on the first-quarter moneyline and 13-7 the past 20 games hitting the first-half over.
And, in Green Bay’s past eight games, it’s 7-1 to the over.
The bet: Two-leg parlay, 49ers -2.5 for the full game with the over 25.5 for the first half (+132 at DraftKings).
BONUS BET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, 3 p.m. ET, Sunday, NBC.
We can’t draw too many conclusions from Tampa Bay’s rout of the mystifying Philadelphia Eagles last week, but a win is a win.
The Bucs defense will challenge the Lions, who cleared a major postseason hurdle in their victory over the Los Angeles Rams.
In winning six of its past seven games, Tampa has held its opponents to an average of 15.3 points.
“We’ve gotten tougher over the course of the past few weeks,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said. “Everybody has finally gotten back and playing at the same time. … Communication has gotten a lot better, everybody’s trusting each other next to them and they’re playing for each other.”
Quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles, but was less than stellar in a Week 6 home loss to these Lions.
Detroit quarterback Jared Goff threw for 353 yards in that one and passed a big test in the Rams win.
The Rams were a worthy opponent; the Eagles were not.
The Lions are a cover machine:
35-17 ATS (67.3 percent) over the past three seasons – best mark in the NFL
24-11 ATS since the start of last season.
21-7 ATS in their past 28 games overall.
12-6 ATS this season.
Sportsbooks have dangled the number at 6.5 and bettors have not pushed it to the magic seven. We’re biting.
The bet: Lions -6.5.
PROP PLAY
If the game goes as we expect, the Lions and coach Dan Campbell will enjoy a ground-and-pound second half that features Detroit running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
The Bucs’ Rachaad White just won’t have the volume to keep up.
The bet: David Montgomery more rushing yards than Rachaad White (-130 at BetMGM).
–Field Level Media

Browns Chiefs Pick, Fade KC again?
