Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) makes a catch for a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills in the first half of the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs fend off Bills, advance to sixth straight AFC title game

Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdown passes to Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs advanced to the AFC Championship Game for the sixth consecutive season with a 27-24 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night at Orchard Park, N.Y.

Isiah Pacheco rushed for 97 yards and the go-ahead touchdown on 15 carries for third-seeded Kansas City. Mahomes completed 17 of 23 passes for 215 yards in his first career road postseason game and Kelce had five receptions for 75 yards for the Chiefs.

Kansas City will visit the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens next Sunday for a Super Bowl berth.

Buffalo had a chance to tie the score but Tyler Bass was way wide right on a 44-yard field-goal attempt with 1:43 remaining. Pacheco then rushed for a first down on Kansas City’s second play as the Chiefs ran out the clock.

Josh Allen rushed for two touchdowns and passed for one for Buffalo. Allen completed 26 of 39 passes for 186 yards and rushed for 72 yards on 12 carries and Khalil Shakir caught a touchdown pass for the second-seeded Bills.

Buffalo had a 16-play, 54-yard drive stall at the Kansas City 26-yard line before Bass’ wide right boot brought back memories of Scott Norwood’s 47-yard miss in the loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXV nearly 33 years ago.

Mahomes and Kelce set a record for combining on 16 postseason touchdown passes. The former New England Patriots duo of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski held the old mark of 15.

Buffalo possessed the ball for 37:03 and ran 78 plays to Kansas City’s 47.

The three touchdown drives of the second half were all 75 yards long.

Kansas City took a 20-17 lead on Mahomes’ 3-yard scoring pass to Kelce with 11:48 left in the third.

Allen connected with Shakir on a 13-yard throw to give Buffalo a four-point lead with 3:23 left in the third quarter.

The Chiefs regained the lead at 27-24 on Pacheco’s 4-yard run 40 seconds into the final quarter.

Allen’s 2-yard scoring run with 26 seconds left in the first half gave the Bills a 17-13 lead at the break. Buffalo had a 41-21 edge in offensive plays and a 235-167 advantage in total offense.

The teams traded field goals in the first quarter, beginning with Bass’ 27-yarder for the Bills and followed by Harrison Butker’s 47-yarder for the Chiefs.

Allen scored on a 5-yard run to give Buffalo a 10-3 lead with 13:32 left in the first half. Butker kicked a 29-yard field goal to bring Kansas City within four with 9:12 remaining.

The Chiefs took a 13-10 lead when Mahomes tossed a 22-yard touchdown pass to Kelce with 3:33 to go.

–Field Level Media

Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta (87) runs against Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis III (24) during the first half of the NFC divisional round at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan. 21, 2024.

Lions tame Bucs, reach first NFC title game in 32 years

Jared Goff passed for 287 yards and two touchdowns and the Detroit Lions advanced to the NFC championship game with a 31-23 victory over the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.

Seeking their first Super Bowl berth, the Lions will travel to California to face the San Francisco 49ers next Sunday. Detroit will be playing in the conference title game for the first time since the 1991 season.

Jahymr Gibbs rushed for 74 yards, including the go-ahead 31-yard score in the fourth quarter. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught eight passes for 77 yards and a touchdown, while Sam LaPorta had nine receptions for 65 yards for Detroit.

Baker Mayfield passed for 349 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions for the Bucs. Mike Evans caught eight passes for 147 yards and a touchdown.

Derrick Barnes’ interception of Mayfield with 1:33 remaining clinched Detroit’s victory.

The game was tied at 10 at halftime.

Detroit struck first on Michael Badgley’s 23-yard field goal. Tampa Bay answered with Chase McLaughlin’s 43-yard field goal.

The Lions regained the lead early in the second quarter on Goff’s 9-yard scoring pass to Josh Reynolds.

McLaughlin banged a 50-yard field goal attempt off the left upright with 2:24 remaining in the half.

The Bucs tied it with 15 seconds left on a 92-yard drive that took just 1:13. Evans’ diving 29-yard reception set up Mayfield’s 2-yard scoring pass to Cade Otton.

Detroit regained the lead with 3:48 left in the third quarter. Craig Reynolds scored on a 1-yard plunge on fourth-and-goal.

Tampa Bay answered again as Rachaad White scored on a 12-yard screen pass from Mayfield with 10 seconds left in the third.

The Lions struck back quickly, as Gibbs burst through a hole and scored from 31 yards out with 13:13 left to make it 24-17.

After Detroit forced a punt, its offense drove 89 yards to increase the lead. Goff hooked up with St. Brown on a 9-yard pass play to finish it off.

Mayfield completed a 16-yard touchdown pass to Evans with 4:37 left. Evans had a 24-yard reception on fourth-and-14 earlier in the drive. The Bucs attempted a two-point conversion but the pass was broken up.

–Field Level Media

Dec 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) celebrates after the team scores a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams during the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Divisional Playoff Capsules (Saturday)

Houston Texans (11-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Playoff Saturday starts with the Texans’ return trek to Baltimore, where they opened the regular season with 25-9 loss to the Ravens. Houston is 2-10 all-time against the Ravens but history has shifted in the Texans’ favor under rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud. The Texans have never been to the conference championship game. To get there, finding an answer for the Ravens’ defense is the first order of business. There’s also the task of solving the Lamar Jackson riddle. Baltimore led the NFL in rushing this season at 156.5 yards per game and Jackson averages 91.8 yards on the ground in the playoffs for his career. That makes life tricky for the back seven defenders given the Ravens’ recent shift to a pass-first approach to early downs. Gus Edwards had a career-high 810 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in the regular season, and Dalvin Cook joins Baltimore for the playoffs. Jackson’s playoff failures have been a storyline this week. He’s 1-3 and lost in the divisional round to the Titans the last time the Ravens secured the top seed in the conference and a first-round bye. Stroud was stellar in shredding the Browns’ No. 1-ranked defense in his playoff debut last week. Now on the road, Stroud braces for Baltimore to mix coverages using safety Kyle Hamilton in a hybrid nickel position with top cover corner Marlon Humphrey (calf) out. The Ravens allowed 16.2 points per game and had a plus-12 turnover margin and 60 sacks in the regular season. The Ravens are optimistic TE Mark Andrews (ankle) can play a role in his first game since Week 11.

Green Bay Packers (10-8) at San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Kyle Shanahan knows Packers head coach Matt LaFleur all too well, having brought him to the NFL as an assistant with the Houston Texans in 2008 under Gary Kubiak. Shanahan and LaFleur meet again as head coaches on Saturday night in the 10th playoff game between the storied franchises. Shanahan’s 49ers are on a redemption tour since the 2022 NFC championship game loss to the Eagles that unraveled when QB Brock Purdy left with a right elbow injury that required offseason surgery. Bionic Brock led the NFL in yards per pass and passer rating (113.0) while leaning on RB Christian McCaffrey for more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns (seven receiving). There are more weapons where McCaffrey came from, including WR-RB Deebo Samuel (12 total TDs in 2023) and leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk (seven TDs, 17.9 yards per reception). Green Bay’s defense clamped down on the Cowboys in Dallas last week to help the Packers become the first No. 7 seed to win a playoff game. QB Jordan Love has starred with 32 TD passes and Green Bay’s current roll also warrants credit to the healthy return of RB Aaron Jones, who scored three rushing TDs last week. The Packers aren’t rich with household names at the skill positions, but that didn’t stop second-year WR Romeo Doubs from the third-best receiving total (151 yards) in team history at Dallas in the wild-card round. Recent meetings between these coaches and teams produced nail-biters: a 30-28 Packers win at San Francisco in 2021 and a 13-10 49ers victory in the divisional playoffs in January 2022.

–Field Level Media

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) recovered from March elbow surgery to guide the team back to the playoffs. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Poised Packers set sights on San Francisco with QBs in spotlight

Matt LaFleur and Kyle Shanahan met as assistant coaches with the Houston Texans in 2008, driven to pursue the kind of Super Bowl success experienced by Kyle’s dad, Mike Shanahan, more than a decade earlier.

LaFleur and his Packers trek to San Francisco to face Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers Saturday night for a spot in the NFC Championship game in a showdown of systems derived from the elder Shanahan’s scheme.

Based on what he already knows from days and hours by LaFleur’s side and early film review during the bye week, Kyle Shanahan was not surprised by Green Bay’s upset of No. 2 seed Dallas. The 48-32 victory featured a stellar showing from first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love, who narrowly missed a perfect passer rating with three touchdown passes and points on six of the first seven drives.

“The way it started out was a little surprising, but once you watch the tape and really get into Green Bay and you really get to think of their numbers and you watch their players and how they are doing it, it doesn’t surprise me at all now,” Kyle Shanahan said.

LaFleur and the Packers (10-8) last played at San Francisco in September 2021 and scored a 30-28 win over the 49ers. The Niners returned the favor in the wild-card rematch four months later, leaving Lambeau Field with a 13-10 win courtesy of Robbie Gould’s golden toe.

But that history is meaningless, LaFleur said, especially with changes at quarterback and what’s at stake this time around.

“We obviously understand what the consequences are,” LaFleur said. “It’s just that next-game mindset.”

San Francisco (12-5) advanced to the NFC title game in Philadelphia last season but Brock Purdy’s first-half elbow injury helped derail the 49ers in a 31-7 loss.

Purdy has a passer rating of 113.0 this season, piloting an offense that led the NFL in plays of 20-plus yards. Purdy had 31 touchdown passes — Love had 32 — with 11 interceptions in 16 games.

Purdy had three TD passes and 332 yards in his first playoff start, a wild-card win over Seattle, last year, giving him confidence moving forward.

“Every drive and every play really matters,” Purdy said. “Every possession matters. Not turning the ball over … all the little things matter. I just feel like the intensity is just cranked up a little bit more.”

Dallas’ pass rush put little pressure on Love in the wild-card round, but San Francisco defensive end Nick Bosa, who had a team-high 10.5 sacks this season, and defensive tackle Arik Armstead present a massive challenge for Green Bay’s unsung offensive line.

Love has 21 touchdowns and one interception in his past nine games.

Bosa likened Love to Purdy in terms of reading progressions, but viewed Packers running back Aaron Jones as a critical key this week. Jones rushed for 118 yards and three touchdowns at Dallas, his fourth consecutive game with more than 110 rushing yards.

“We definitely need to stop the run. I don’t think many teams have made him uncomfortable, yet,” Bosa said. “So stopping the run and covering up those easy open guys is something we have to do.”

LaFleur credited Jones as well as the Packers’ offensive line for holding Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons in check in the playoff opener. Green Bay allowed eight sacks in the past eight games.

“I think it’s big, it’s been a big reason why he’s been able to do what (Love has) been able to do,” LaFleur said. “We always say, ‘It’s hard to throw when you’re on your back.’ I can’t tell you how many times Aaron Jones saved a couple potential disasters the last few games.”

The Packers held Dallas to 16 points until the middle of the fourth quarter last week and Green Bay has allowed only one first-quarter touchdown since the start of November. Christian McCaffrey was the NFL’s leader in rushing with 1,459 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt and totaling 21 touchdowns in the regular season.

But he’s just one chess piece at Kyle Shanahan’s disposal. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel has 38 touchdowns – 19 rushing and 19 receiving – in his first five seasons and can line up at running back.

Tight end George Kittle had six touchdown catches, one behind a trio of Purdy targets with seven TD grabs: McCaffrey, Samuel and leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk (75 catches for 1,342 yards).

“You have to swarm them. You have to gang tackle these guys. All those guys, collectively, they pose a great challenge,” LaFleur said.

–Field Level Media

Jan 17, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) is introduced before playing against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Wild Card playoff football game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Playoff parlay play: Rams at Buccaneers

Sunday’s NFL doubleheader opens with the Los Angeles visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a rematch of Week 3 game won by the Rams.

From a betting perspective, there is a reasonable argument that either team could win this game — and reach the Super Bowl out of the NFC with another victory next week — which ratchets up the investment intrigue.

To get into the action with a bet, we cooked up a Same Game Parlay that includes some extremely high hit-rates on the season. This particular SGP was constructed on FanDuel.

Rams vs Buccaneers SGP: +173 on FD
This parlay is four legs, and before we break down why each is a part of this bet, let’s show the entire SGP.

The SGP:
Cooper Kupp 70+ Receiving Yards
Tom Brady 225+ Passing Yards
Tyler Johnson 25+ Receiving Yards
Rams +10.5

If you wanted to increase the odds, you could bump up each of these prop totals, but we went with the safer route with some low totals.

–Cooper Kupp 70+ Receiving Yards
We start with Cooper Kupp. Kupp was the best wide receiver in football this season, leading the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns.

His over/under for this game is currently at 100.5 yards, so 70-plus should be well within grasp against a sagging secondary.

Kupp hit this total in 16 of 18 games this season, good for an 89% hit rate. Considering he’s averaging 111.6 yards per game and seeing 11 targets per game from Matthew Stafford, I feel comfortable with this number.

The Buccaneers secondary is where you’ll want to attack if you’re the Rams, with a strong run defense poised to shut down the combination of Sony Michel and Cam Akers.

In a game that should have plenty of scoring, Los Angeles will turn to the passing game, and in turn, Kupp.

–Tom Brady 225+ Passing Yards
We hit another low alternate line for Brady, needing just 225-pus passing yards to secure the second leg of our parlay.

Brady hit this total in 15 of 18 games this season, including against the Rams — finishing with 432.

Los Angeles has the best run defense in football, and no team throws more often than Tampa Bay.

If you wanted to bump your odds up, Brady at 250+ brings the odds up to +201. I prefer the safer route.

Brady is averaging 310.4 passing yards per game this season.

–Tyler Johnson 25+ Receiving Yards

I like Johnson to exceed 25 receiving yards, which he’s done in two of the last three games since Chris Godwin went down with a torn ACL.
Johnson is third on this team in targets and the WR2 in this offense.

Los Angeles allows the third-most receptions per game to wide receivers, and Johnson is sure to get some looks from Brady.

–Rams +10.5
This is another underdog that I think can win this weekend, so we bump the spread to +10.5 for some insurance.

Los Angeles matches up well with Tampa Bay, especially if Pro Bowl right tackle Tristan Wirfs misses the game as expected.

Brady’s biggest losses in the postseason have typically come against teams with an elite pass rush. Well, Aaron Donald and Von Miller make up just a part of what has been the best defensive line in football this season. The Rams’s 50 sacks are third in the NFL and they should be getting to Brady all game.

If Stafford can pick apart a vulnerable secondary and this Los Angeles defense comes to play, the Rams can at minimum keep this game within 10 points.

This is another I would be comfortable bumping to less of a spread to boost your SGP odds.

This NFC battle on Sunday should be a good one, so enjoy the game and the entire weekend of football!

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media