The fourth semifinalist for the 2025 College Football Playoff will be determined when seventh seeded Notre Dame and No. 2 seed Georgia square off in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans on Thursday.
The game was delayed a day following the suspected terrorist attack that killed at least 15 people and injured dozens more who were celebrating the New Year in New Orleans’ French Quarter.
The game will now take place amid heightened security, with the winner moving on to face Penn State in the semifinals.
ODDS AND TRENDS
After Georgia (11-2) spent the majority of the week as a slight favorite at most sportsbooks, the consensus line had shifted to Notre Dame -1.0 at several sportsbooks by Wednesday night.
The Bulldogs opened at -1.5 at BetMGM, but had flipped to underdogs despite the public backing Georgia with 54 percent of the spread-line bets and 51 percent of the money as of Thursday morning. Meanwhile, BetRivers reported 58 percent of the spread-line money backing Notre Dame (12-1), which was still a half-point underdog at the book.
BetRivers also reported that only Arizona State and Marshall have had a better record against the spread this season than Notre Dame’s 10-2-1 mark. The Fighting Irish have also covered the spread in eight consecutive games, while the Bulldogs have failed to cover in four of their past six.
The bowl season has produced numerous high-scoring affairs, and the 45.5 total points line at BetMGM has seen the Over draw 54 percent of the money.
Four of the past six games for both teams have hit the Over at BetRivers.
PROP PICKS
–Georgia QB Gunner Stockton 2+ Passing TDs (+205 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the book despite Stockton’s limited experience entering such a massive game. Carson Beck’s replacement has attempted only 32 passes all season, with 16 of them coming in place of the injured Beck in the SEC Championship Game. He did complete 75.0 percent of his passes while leading an effective offense to help secure an overtime victory over Texas.
–Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-130 at BetMGM): The duel-threat quarterback has rushed for 751 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Leonard didn’t need to use his legs as much in the rout of Indiana on Dec. 20, but did produce at least 41 rushing yards eight times this season.
THE NEWS
Stockton replaced Beck and completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards with an interception in Georgia’s 22-19 overtime win against Texas. The victory solidified a playoff bye and extra preparation time for the Bulldogs, though they didn’t know their opponent until almost two weeks later when Notre Dame advanced with a 27-17 first-round playoff victory against Indiana in South Bend, Ind.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart said the extra time helped Stockton by giving him added reps with the first team, though the Bulldogs’ game preparation was limited until they knew their opponent.
“I think the biggest thing (for Stockton) is just competition and practice, the situations we put him in,” Smart said. “All those things allow him to get better as a quarterback.”
Stockton has completed 25 of 32 passes for 206 yards and no touchdowns this season, with one interception. Freshman Nate Frazier leads the running game with 634 yards and eight TDs on 129 carries.
Freeman said he and his staff have “80-something plays” of Stockton to study.
“He can run their offense,” Freeman said. “He does things a little bit differently. He can extend plays with his legs; he’s a good athlete. The thing I probably noticed most about him, he’s an ultra-competitive individual.”
Smart downplayed the possibility that Stockton’s running ability will lead to much difference in the Bulldogs’ game plan.
“We are who we are,” Smart said.
The flip side to the break between games is that Georgia will have had the equivalent of 3 1/2 byes while Notre Dame stayed sharp by winning its 11th consecutive game.
“It’s really just hard to manage how you keep your players in football shape and game shape,” Smart said. “Do you lose some rhythm? You watch it most times in bowl games, people that have those long breaks, it can affect how you play.”
Notre Dame, like fellow first-round winners Penn State, Ohio State and Texas, is adjusting to playing back-to-back postseason games as part of the 12-team CFP.
“Obviously, this is a first for me,” head coach Marcus Freeman said. “You almost prepared for this first round like it was maybe even a bowl game-ish-type opportunity. But then you realize once the game was over, you get back to preparation. …
“In the playoffs, you’ve got to prepare in a way that gives your program the best opportunity to win. Put everything on the table and then, if you’re able to get the outcome you want, you’ve got to go right back to preparation.”
The Irish will go through the rest of the season without defensive tackle Rylie Mills because of a knee injury he suffered against Indiana.
“The value (Mills) provided this team is tremendous,” Freeman said. “And he’s done an excellent job as a football player and a leader.
“You’ve got to replace what he did for our defense in different ways. We have capable guys that will step up, that have stepped up all year that we’re very confident in.”
Mills had 7 1/2 sacks this season, and he and preseason All-American Howard Cross III helped the defense overcome the loss of another preseason All-American, cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who sustained a season-ending hip injury in October.
Cross missed the final three regular-season games because of a high ankle sprain but returned against Indiana.
On offense, Leonard has thrown for 2,293 yards and 17 touchdowns against six interceptions, and Jeremiyah Love averages 7.4 yards per carry, posting 1,057 rushing yards and 16 TDs on 142 attempts.
PREDICTION
This may be the most difficult of the four quarterfinal games to evaluate. While Notre Dame has played a relatively weak schedule that has not featured any top-10 opponents, Georgia easily could have lost more than just two games this season and is relying on a backup quarterback. Stockton was impressive in relief against Texas, and we’re banking on the Bulldogs’ defense being the strong unit on the field Thursday. –Georgia 27, Notre Dame 23
–Field Level Media
