Dec 26, 2021; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn (21) runs for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Carroll: Top Week 17 TD Scorer Prop Bets

It’s Week 17 in the NFL regular season, and it’s time once again to scan the board to find our favorite touchdown scorer props for the weekend.

There are some advantageous matchups worth a look, and here are seven scorers I like for Sunday’s slate.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn: +270 on FanDuel
We have just two more weeks to continue betting running back touchdowns against the New York Jets, who allow a league-high average of 1.74 touchdowns per game to the running back position.

This week, it’s the Buccaneers’ Vaughn who offers the best value. Ronald Jones is the starter, but his odds are closer to -150.

Vaughn played 36percent of the snaps in the first game since Leonard Fournette’s injury and scored a long touchdown.

He should continue seeing carries, and at these odds, I think this is strong value.

Trey Lance: +125 on PointsBet
Lance is expected to make the start this weekend with Jimmy Garoppolo doubtful. Lance gets himself a great opponent to work against in the lowly Houston Texans.

Houston allows the second-most rushing touchdowns per game, and Lance brings a mobility that the Niners are likely to utilize.

In Lance’s one start this year, he had a rushing touchdown, so let’s go ahead and load up a repeat performance.

A 49ers running back is another fine option here, and Elijah Mitchell (knee) is expected to play.

Rashaad Penny: +130 on DraftKings
I’m surprised we’re getting this at plus-odds, and it’s a great bet to take on its own or include in a touchdown parlay.

In the four consecutive games in which Rashaad Penny has received double-digit carries, he has scored three times.

Detroit has been another defense we’ve targeted all year due to their generosity towards running back scoring (1.53 TDs allowed per game).

Penny is the top back in Seattle and should see his chances to find the end zone. I love these odds.

John Bates: +650 on BetMGM
If you don’t recognize this name, it’s understandable. Bates is a tight end for Washington and has quietly been the Football Team’s top TE for the past seven weeks.

Bates is playing roughly 75 percent of the snaps and seeing a few targets each game. This weekend he’ll get Philadelphia, which has been extremely vulnerable to TE touchdowns.

The Eagles are tied with the most touchdowns allowed to the position at 11, and four of the past five weeks a tight end has scored against the Eagles.

At +650, this is worth a flier.

Kenny Golladay: +300 on DraftKings
I’ll admit, this one is ugly, but hear me out! Golladay has failed to score a touchdown all season, so there isn’t a performance trend to back this pick up.

However, Golladay is the last man standing in New York. Kadarius Toney is out. Sterling Shepard is out. Darius Slayton is out. Collin Johnson is out. John Ross is out.

There’s no one else!

The Giants play the Bears this weekend, who allow the second-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. If ever there was an opportunity to find the end zone, it’s this week.

At +300, it’s worth your consideration.

Hunter Renfrow: +190 on FanDuel
Renfrow has one of the steadiest roles on this Las Vegas offense. While his playing time tends to cap out at around 60 percent of the snaps, he has received red-zone targets in three straight weeks, and leads the team’s pass-catchers in looks near the goal line.

This is a must-win game for the Raiders and their playoff hopes, and the Colts allow the third-most touchdowns per game to receivers.

I like Renfrow’s odds here.

Michael Gallup: +210 on FanDuel
I admit that I’ve included Gallup in this column a lot recently, and he has failed to score in three straight weeks.

With that established, I’m keeping the faith that this man offers strong value to score for Dallas this weekend.

For starters, the Cowboys play the reeling Cardinals, who allow the most touchdowns to wide receivers.

Gallup had two red-zone targets last week and is seeing the field a lot for this offense. He brings the best odds among the three receivers, so I’m giving him another chance.

It helps that this game is the highest over/under of the weekend. We should see plenty of scores.

That’ll do it for this week’s top touchdown picks! Let’s have ourselves a profitable Week 17.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.

Nov 28, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) celebrates his touchdown pass by doing the TY Hilton celebration in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Ten tempting TD scorer props for Week 13

Week 13 is here and it’s time to scan the board for the best touchdown scorer props of the weekend.

The approach is finding plus-odds spots. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is in a great spot to score this weekend, but at -200, we’re not chasing limited value.

Here are 10 touchdown props I’ve got my eye on for the NFL’s Week 13 action:

Colts WR Zach Pascal: +210
It’s always a good bet to slot in players who get the Houston Texans that week, considering how poor their defense has been throughout much of the season.

This week it’s Pascal, who is tied for the lead amongst Colts pass-catchers in red zone looks, with 11.

Pascal is the clear No. 2 receiver, playing over 90% of the snaps, and should have his opportunities against a vulnerable Houston secondary.

–Bengals RB Samaje Perine: +500
How do you feel about a vulture pick? At +500, I’m seriously intrigued by Perine.

The Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, and only one team sees more running back touchdowns against them than LA.

Joe Mixon is the bell-cow in this offense, but Perine has six red zone carries this season and will spell the Bengals top back at times in this game.

To me, it’s a worthy selection at these odds. It helps that this game is tied for the highest over/under of the weekend, at 50.5 points. Touchdowns will be scored.

–Eagles RB Boston Scott: +260
We included Scott in this piece last week and he delivered, so we’re loading him back again. No team allows more touchdowns per game to running backs than the New York Jets, seeing 1.91 per game.

It’s Scott and Miles Sanders in this backfield, but Scott has taken on a red zone role and will have his chances on Sunday.

–Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow: +140
Las Vegas ranks inside the top-ten in pass attempts and will be moving the ball through the air as much as they can against what has been a generous Washington secondary for much of the season.

In comes Renfrow, the top receiver for the Raiders. Renfrow leads the wide receivers in red zone targets with 12. Washington gives up the fourth most touchdowns per game to WRs.

–Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth: +210
Freiermuth has a touchdown in four of his last five games, and at +210 against a vulnerable Baltimore secondary, I’m liking his chances at another.

Freiermuth has 15 red zone looks this year, second on the team behind Najee Harris. The Ravens see the fourth-highest number of TDs to tight ends.

–Vikings WR Adam Thielen: +105
To slightly deviate from the odds from above, I love Thielen at +105.

The Lions secondary has been awful all season, a tremendous target for all wide receiver props. Thielen has 10 scores on the year and will look to make it 11 against a Detroit team that can’t stop pass-catchers.

–Seahawks RB Adrian Peterson: +290
If you want to take a flier pick, why not newly-signed Peterson on the Seahawks?

Pete Carroll claims Peterson was signed because Seattle wants to win now. With Alex Collins banged up, there’s a realistic chance AP sees meaningful time on Sunday.

San Francisco allows the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs.

–Cardinals TE Zach Ertz: +190
Ertz has been a focal point of the Arizona red zone offense since joining the team, and with Kyler Murray expected to return, I like his chances to find the end zone once again.

The Bears have given up three touchdowns to tight ends in their past three games. Ertz scored twice last week.

–Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate: +450
I’ve mentioned in previous articles, a baseline strategy to target touchdown props is looking at the games with the highest over/unders. Logic suggests more touchdowns will be scored. The Bucs-Falcons game fits the bill, with a total at 50.5 points.

The Tampa passing attack is loaded, and Brate is the one that gives us the best potential payout at +450 odds.

Brate has seven red zone targets in his past three games and plays around 35% of the snaps.

–Colts QB Carson Wentz: +450
For a fun one, we go back to the Houston Texans. This time, it’s Wentz to rush one in at +450.

Houston allows 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, the second-highest mark in the NFL. Is it that crazy that we bet on this big-bodied quarterback to take one himself near the goalline?

Touchdown props should be a mixture of data-based decisions with a mix of fun. This certainly sways to the fun side, but I’m rolling with it on Sunday.

–By Griffin Carroll (@Griffybets), Field Level Media

Nov 7, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) attempts to catch a pass against Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward (21) in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 NFL TD prop picks

Last week wasn’t perfect, but we did identify the right games with the exception of the disaster of a performance from the Atlanta Falcons.

Four of the five players I highlighted had teammates at the same position score. To me, that’s validation of the data-driven approach.

There’s always a randomness at play when betting touchdown scorers, but if you stay true to targeting soft spots, there’s data to support these bets in the long-term.

I’ve gone a step further this week by also looking at the teams who pass and rush for the most touchdowns and finding overlaps where they play a team that allows the most touchdowns either through the air or on the ground.

For example, the Titans score 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game, the most in the NFL. They play the Texans this weekend who allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.7). That’s the type of overlap we’re looking for.

Couple that with red zone strengths and high-usage players, and I’m feeling good about the touchdown scorers this weekend.

–Five TD Scorer Props this Sunday

To reiterate, this piece can be used just as much as a resource as it can be a look into best bets. While last week showed that we had the right spots circled, there are a lot of players on the field, so consider their teammates as well.

We focus on plus-odds bets only to give us some leeway for profit. For example, against an extremely poor Lions run defense, Nick Chubb is a strong option to score. At -165 odds, it’s not great value.

If you like to place TD parlays then by all means, load up Chubb – I likely will myself.

Time to focus up, here are my five favorite touchdown scorers in Week 11. Odds are courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel.

–James Robinson +130 on DraftKings

James Robinson is in a good spot in this game against the 49ers. For starters, Jacksonville scores a touchdown on 60% of their red zone trips, a top-15 mark.
San Francisco is a below-average red zone defense and allow the third-most rushing touchdowns per game at 1.3.

Robinson has his role locked up with Jacksonville, leading the team in red zone usage and carries. Robinson has found the end zone in five games this year and has had an efficient season out of the backfield.

–Cole Beasley +175 on DraftKings

Beasley left the Bills Week 10 game against the Jets early with an injury, but all reports indicate he’s good to go for this big game against the Indianapolis Colts.

This initially hit my radar as an example of a strong RZ offense against a poor RZ defense, but it was studying how the Colts let up touchdowns that makes this an official play.

Only one team allows more passing touchdowns per game than this Indy defense, and Beasley is second on the Bills in red zone targets.

Prior to leaving Week 10 early, Beasley saw 13 and 11 total targets in back-to-back weeks, a significant uptick in volume.

Beasley has just one touchdown this season, which only makes me think he’s due. At +175, this feels like a strong spot for Beasley to score.

–D’Onta Foreman +125 on FanDuel
We alluded to this above, but one of the clear spots to target this weekend is the Titans running game against this Texans defense.

The man that gets the nod in my book is Foreman, who slightly out-snapped Adrian Peterson last week, saw three red zone carries and just looked to be the most efficient with the ball in his hands.

Tennessee should find the end zone repeatedly against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. With their proclivity for scoring on the ground (the highest rushing TDs per game), their group of runners is the right place to look.

Adrian Peterson is a factor and +160 to score, he has five red zone carries the past two weeks.

–Tee Higgins +150 on FanDuel
Full transparency, I have been including Tee Higgins to score in my touchdown parlays for three straight weeks and you guessed it, he hasn’t scored yet.

Higgins is a key cog in this Cincinnati Bengals’ passing attack, playing over 75% of the snaps and seeing 8.1 targets per game.

Higgins leads this group of pass-catches in red zone targets but hasn’t scored since Week 2!

Las Vegas has the 31st-ranked red zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a 75% rate. They’re particularly vulnerable to passing touchdowns, seeing the fifth-most per game, while Joe Burrow and the Bengals toss the fifth-most passing scores per game.

This is a perfect union of value and my favorite touchdown play of the day.

–Michael Gallup +160 on FanDuel
The Dallas-Kansas City game is the highest projected total of the weekend (56.5 points) and well worth a touchdown bet.

This game screams shootouts with two strong offenses and two less-than-stellar defenses, so I’ll load up the Dallas receiver with the most value, Michael Gallup.

Gallup returned to the Cowboys lineup for the first time since Week 1, playing 53% of the snaps and seeing five targets.

As a piece of this offense in a high-scoring game, I love the odds here. The Chiefs allow the seventh-highest passing TDs per game while Dallas scores primarily through the air (2.4 per game, third in the NFL).

With Amari Cooper now on the COVID list, Gallup’s usage only figures to jump.

-Follow Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) and check out his work at bettingwithdata.com.