Tag: handicapping

NFL Week 11 Lookahead Lines: Eagles Now Big Underdogs At New Orleans, Carolina Bigger Faves at Detroit Despite Steelers Blowout

Posted on | by Thomas Casale

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 11 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 11 Lines, Before And After: Carolina Bigger Favorite At Detroit Despite Getting Crushed By Steelers, Meanwhile Steelers Move Past Key Number Against Reeling Jaguars

nfl week 11 lines betting jags steelers

Carolina Panthers (-4 or -3.5) at Detroit lions

It’s not often a team gets blown out on national television 52-21 and the line moves in their favor, but that’s what we have in this matchup. Last week the Panthers were -3 at the SuperBook and -1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Even after getting drilled by the Steelers, the line moved to Carolina -4.

That’s because the Lions are arguably the second worst team in the NFL right now. Detroit is 0-3 both SU and ATS in its last three games, losing by 14, 15 and 12 points over that span. Carolina didn’t show up last Thursday night in Pittsburgh but prior to that loss the Panthers were riding a three-game winning streak SU and ATS.

While the Lions look like they’ve waived the white flag on the season, it should be noted that the Panthers aren’t the same team away from home. Carolina is 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season with its lone win being a come-from-behind victory over the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Lions are 2-2 SU and ATS at home with wins over the Patriots and Packers.

There seems to be some value here with the Lions. The problem is Detroit has looked lifeless in its last three games, so it may not matter.

 

Read more NFL Week 11 Lookahead Lines: Eagles Now Big Underdogs At New Orleans, Carolina Bigger Faves at Detroit Despite Steelers Blowout on SportsHandle.

NFL Injuries and Sports Betting: Audibles at the Sight of Line Moves

Posted on | by Brett Smiley

Handicapping football injuries in the NFL, although similar to parsing less abundant injury information in the college game, requires a unique skill set and approach. It’s also an absolute imperative for any serious bettor as NFL lines have become sharper and less elastic in the information age.

Andy Iskoe of the Logical Approach, a handicapping and sports research service, has analyzed such injury information and contextualized it as long as he’s been in the business. The longtime Las Vegas professional handicapper, podcaster and featured columnist for numerous sports betting publications including Gaming Today, examined this topic for Sports Handle recently.

Iskoe says experienced handicappers and bookmakers sometimes assign a point value to each position if a starter is injured, but that in the pro game, as one would expect, most adjustment in terms of the point spread revolve around the quarterback.

 

Read more NFL Injuries and Sports Betting: Audibles at the Sight of Line Moves on SportsHandle.

Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno Over Boise, Washington State A Short Road Favorite And More

Posted on | by Thomas Casale

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. Season Record: 17-13.

This week we have six plays, including Fresno State laying a short number on the road in Boise and fading Duke as a big favorite.

Also check out our NFL Week 10 “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias. Back to the college game:

Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno State Bulldogs -2.5 at Boise State, Fading Duke, And More Miami Dominance Over Georgia Tech

Fresno State -2.5 over Boise State (Friday)

This is a huge game in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State is 8-1 and Boise State 7-2. It might be surprising to see the Broncos as the home dog here but there’s a reason for it. Fresno State is just a much better team.

The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and won last year in Boise 28-17. Boise State has already lost at home to San Diego State and its offense struggles against better defenses. Fresno State is holding conference opponents to 93 yards below their season average, while quarterbacks hit just 48 percent of their passes against the Bulldogs.

A Las Vegas oddsmaker recently stated he would make Fresno State around a field goal favorite over UCF on a neutral field. The Bulldogs are the best non-Power 5 team this season. There’s value taking the Bulldogs under a field goal. They should win rather easily on the road in a showcase game.

 

 

Read more Week 11 College Football Picks: Fresno Over Boise, Washington State A Short Road Favorite And More on SportsHandle.

‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 10 Breakdown: Bengals Host Red-Hot Saints, Pros On Underdog Titans (+6.5) vs. Patriots

Posted on | by Brett Smiley

The post ‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 10 Breakdown: Bengals Host Red-Hot Saints, Pros On Underdog Titans (+6.5) vs. Patriots appeared first on SportsHandle.

On The Pro Football Handle, brought to you by PropSwap.com, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmaking dive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the same from behind the microphone, so they’ll have you prepared for anything.

Somehow, it’s already NFL Week 10. There are some funky lines this week including three double digit games. Will the public continue their red hot October into November? Keep an eye on the dogs this week, they are consistently hitting (69-60-3 ATS on the season), although popular favorites have been covering recently. Listen for some key teaser opportunities and the contrarian pick of the week.

Spotify fans go here to listen. Download the PropSwap app for iOS systems here and Android here. Time codes for the episode follow below.

1:10 — The public is red hot: a recap of the season so far.

12:47 —  PropSwap.com, Future Focus — Are the L.A. Chargers and Carolina Panthers getting the respect they deserve?

15:16 — Carolina Panthers +3.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers — Carolina is a team to be reckoned with and the public is paying attention.

21:00 —  Buffalo Bills +6.5 (or +7) at N.Y. Jets — Without their young QBs playing, the only reason to watch this game is if you bet on it.

23:35 — Atlanta Falcons -4 at Cleveland Browns-– The Browns are home dogs? Tempting, but can you trust them?

26:04 — New Orleans Saints -5 at Cincinnati Bengals — Contrarian play of the week!

29:25 — Washington Redskins +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — FitzMagic money is pouring in, but which version will we see this week?

31:30 — New England Patriots -6.5 at Tennessee Titans — Pros are on the dog. Great teaser opportunity.

34:09 — Arizona Cardinals +16.5 at Kansas City Chiefs — If you have to play KC, play the first half.

36:00 — L.A. Chargers -10 at Oakland Raiders –– Robert is done with the Raiders but Matt will tease it.

39:06 — Seattle Seahawks +9.5  at L.A. Rams — Seattle is the livest dog you’ve ever seen.

41:31 — Miami Dolphins +9.5 at Green Bay Packers — This game is Dolphins vs. Aaron Rodgers. And the public loves Aaron Rodgers.

42:49 — Detroit Lions +6.5 at Chicago Bears — Has media spin superficially inflated the Lions?

44:22– Dallas Cowboys +7 at Philadelphia Eagles — Without Sean Lee the Cowboys suffer on defense.

45:34 — NY Giants +3 at San Francisco 49ers  — San Fran is terrible but shouldn’t be favored over anybody… even the Giants.

Have a profitable Week 10, folks. Thanks for listening and see you back next week, tell a friend, sign up for our newsletter and also check out the Cover City Podcast, featuring sports bettor Eric Rosenthal.

Follow Perrault on Twitter @sportstalkmatt and Walker @robertusfsports.

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The post ‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 10 Breakdown: Bengals Host Red-Hot Saints, Pros On Underdog Titans (+6.5) vs. Patriots appeared first on SportsHandle.

NFL Week 10: In ‘Lookahead Lines,’ Steelers Drop From 6.5 to 4, Falcons Gettin’ Respect

Posted on | by Thomas Casale

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines” o see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the NFL Week 10 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 9 Lines, Before And After: Some Value on Steelers at Home, Big Shift in Falcons and Browns, Also Looking at Lions and Redskins

nfl week 10 betting panthers bucs

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

The Panthers haven’t gotten a lot of respect from oddsmakers this year. Just two weeks ago they were a home underdog to the Ravens and the line against the Steelers was 6.5 when the SuperBook released its early numbers last week.

The number stayed at 6.5 when the SuperBook and many other shops put out their opening numbers for Week 10 but the Panthers were quickly bet down to +4 within 24 hours. As of Tuesday, that’s where the line was at most Las Vegas sportsbooks. The Panthers are on a three-game winning streak with wins over the Eagles, Ravens and Buccaneers. Carolina is also 3-0 ATS in those games, two of them at home. The Panthers haven’t fared as well on the road this season, going 1-2 both SU and ATS.

The Steelers are also rolling with four consecutive wins both SU and ATS. After losing their first two games at home outright to the Chiefs and Ravens, the Steelers have won their last two over the Browns and Falcons by over two touchdowns.

The money came in on the Panthers but so far this year, Carolina hasn’t been the same team away from home. With the Steelers hitting their stride, there’s some value laying the short number at home, especially if the line continues to drop.

Read the remainder of NFL Week 10: In ‘Lookahead Lines,’ Steelers Drop From 6.5 to 4, Falcons Gettin’ Respect on SportsHandle.

Expected Value In Sports Betting (EV), Explained In Understandable Terms

Posted on | by Brett Smiley

Editor’s Note: The article below originally appeared in Berryhorse’s (real name Kieran) free newsletter BetItUp, which you can (and should) subscribe to here to learn more about predictive sports modeling, betting, bankroll management and more. The article is published at Sports Handle with his permission.

It’s very easy to lose money betting on sports. Losing wagers may still provide good entertainment for a few hours, but people wanting to actually make money need discipline and at least a basic understanding of math and probability.

Some bettors consider themselves “Positive EV” or +EV bettors, referring to positive expected value. There’s a bunch of articles on the subject that are too complex, especially for those not mathematically inclined. So if you’re encountering EV principles for the first time or need a refresher, we’re pleased to share what’s below by Mr. Berryhorse, which should be digestible by sports bettors of all levels.

 

Read more Expected Value In Sports Betting (EV), Explained In Understandable Terms on SportsHandle.

‘Lookahead Lines’: Big Swing In London’s Jags-Eagles Tilt, Colts Now Spotting Raiders 3 In Oakland

Posted on | by Brett Smiley

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung a week or days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 8 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 7 Lines, Before And After: Jaguars-Eagles Goes From Pick’em to Field Goal, Raiders Now FG Home Dogs to Colts; More Patriots Domination at Buffalo to Come?

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (London)

This line had remained steady up until this week when the perception of the Jaguars changed. CG Technology made the line a pick ’em back in May when they released numbers for every NFL game. Last week, the line remained there when the SuperBook released its early lines.

However, after the Jaguars got blown out for the third game in a row at home against the Texans, the number opened at Eagles -3 and that’s where it stayed as of Wednesday. The Eagles blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead last week at home to the Panthers to fall to 3-4 on the season, but the Jaguars present a more worrying picture. Jacksonville’s defense has taken a step back, separate from the struggles at quarterback. Blake Bortles was benched mid-game against Houston in favor of Cody Kessler. Jags coach Doug Marrone is going back to Bortles for the start this week but he’ll be on a short leash again. 

These squads are meeting in London and the fact that the Eagles have moved off a PK to -3 in one week shows that oddsmakers are losing faith in the Jaguars. But Philly is also just 2-5 ATS, so while people are down on the Jaguars, there’s some value with them getting three points in this matchup.

 
 

Read more ‘Lookahead Lines’: Big Swing In London’s Jags-Eagles Tilt, Colts Now Spotting Raiders 3 In Oakland on SportsHandle.

Week 8 College Football Picks: Navy’s A Double-Digit Home ‘Dog, Oklahoma

Posted on | by Brett Smiley

 

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. (Season record: 8-5.)

Also check out our NFL “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

Back to the college game…

College Football Picks Week 8: Navy’s a Double-Digit Home Underdog and Oklahoma in a Good Spot vs. TCU

cfb picks oklahoma tcu sports betting

Oklahoma -8 over TCU

It seems like everyone in the world is on Oklahoma this week. I usually try to stay away from games like that but sometimes you just have to ride the public wave to the window and cash the ticket.

This is such a great spot for the Sooners. Oklahoma is coming off a bye and finally fired “defensive” coordinator Mike Stoops. Ruffin McNeill will take over a defense that faces a struggling TCU offense. The Horned Frogs have lost three of their last four games and have scored more than 17 points just once over that span.

TCU is only 2-4 ATS as a home dog in its last six games and 2-7 ATS overall in its last nine. Oklahoma has won four straight over the Horned Frogs with the average margin of victory of 12.2 points. 

I’ll take the Sooners to pull away in this game and cover the eight points.

Kentucky -11 over Vanderbilt

Speaking of good spots, Kentucky finds itself in one this week. The Wildcats are coming off a bye, while Vanderbilt is playing for the eighth straight week and must rebound from a tough loss to Florida where they blew a 21-3 lead.

Kentucky has a major edge here with their rushing offense going against a Vandy defense that’s allowed an average of 257 rushing yards over the last four games. That will be a big problem when facing Kentucky RB Benny Snell and his 5.5 yards per carry.

Vanderbilt quarterback Ke’Shawn Vaughn was injured last week but is expected to play on Saturday. Kentucky has been strong on defense this year holding opponents to 116 yards below their opponents’ season average.

Vanderbilt has been a great fade in conference play going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games versus SEC opponents. This line opened 10.5 at the SuperBook and moved to 11 where it is at most books as of Wednesday. Kentucky’s five wins this year have all been by 11 points or more. I’ll call for another double-digit victory here.es not used to seeing that offense, especially when I’m getting points (a dozen of ’em).

Read more Week 8 College Football Picks: Navy’s A Double-Digit Home ‘Dog, Oklahoma  on SportsHandle.

Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring

Posted on | by Brett Smiley

The post Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring appeared first on SportsHandle.

 

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. (Season record: 6-3.)

Also check out our NFL “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

Back to the college game…

College Football Week 7 Picks: Underdog Duke to Georgia Tech And a Potentially High-Scoring Big Ten Game

 

Michigan State +13.5 over Penn State
Total: OVER 53

Michigan State has struggled this year and is coming off a disappointing home loss to Northwestern as a 10-point favorite, but two touchdowns in this game seems like a bit much.

The Spartans have thrived in this spot going 7-3 in their last 10 games as an away dog. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings and the OVER is 15-3-1 the last 19 meetings. Both of these teams have played high-scoring games over the last two seasons with the OVER 7-1 in Penn State’s last eight and 6-1 in Michigan’s State’s last seven.

The Spartans rank No. 1 in the nation against the run allowing 33.8 yards per game and 1.38 yards per rush. However, the Spartans give up 305 yards per game (122), so expect a lot of passing by both teams Saturday.

I think we see a spirited effort out of the Spartans this week in a high-scoring game. I’ll take the points and OVER 53 (down from a 56 opener) in a game where I had the total in the low 60s.

Read more Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring on SportsHandle.

Cover City: NFL Week 6 Picks, Preview And NFL Stats With ESPN’s Mike Clay

Posted on | by Brett Smiley

 

Sports Handle is pleased to present Cover City: A Pro Football Betting Podcast, hosted by Eric Rosenthal (@ericcports). Rosenthal is a professional sports bettor who focuses on NFL and college football. He’s wagered more than $25 million in the last nine years, getting banned from many sportsbooks along the way.

Before diving into the NFL Week 6 breakdown and picks, special guest Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL), a projections and fantasy football specialist with ESPN NFL, joins the pod to discuss advanced stats, best wide receivers for Week 6, his top survivor pool picks and more.

Producer Sean Sean Pfeiffer (@RotoRadarCEO) joins to discuss the slate and some big totals, plus don’t miss Rosenthal’s SuperContest picks of the week.

Time codes for the episode follow below. Listen and subscribe on Spotify here.

0:45 – ESPN’s Mike Clay joins the program and explains what you need to know about #ADOT.

3:55 – NFL data is evolving every year. What key metrics can we expect in the next 10 years?

9:21- Rosenthal and Clay discuss the strategy behind two point conversion attempts.

11:55 – Clay talks about who his favorite teams are according to his proprietary algorithm and shares the best odds of winning Week 6 Survivor Pools.

14:18 – Clay talks about his favorite teams to pull off an upset in Week 6: The Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts.

16:02 – Clay’s final thoughts on the scoring trends through Week 5. What does this mean for NFL defenses for the rest of the season?

18:31 – Clay talks about his favorite Wide Receivers of Week 6 and his new column on ESPN Plus. Where does Michael Crabtree rank?

20:05 – Cover City Producer Sean Pfeiffer (@RotoRadarCEO) joins the show to go game-by-game with Eric and cover his favorite bets of Week 6.

20:16 – L.A. Chargers -1 at Cleveland Browns — Will Rosenthal keep his pledge to not bet on the Chargers and Philip Rivers or is the Browns upset too tempting?

22:46 – Carolina Panthers +1 at Washington Redskins — Is the NFC East the worst division in the NFL? Rosenthal breaks down why this game is a winner for sports bettors.

24:41 – Indianapolis Colts +2.5 at N.Y. Jets — How do T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle’s absences impact the Colts this week?

26:31 – Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Dallas Cowboys — Jags and Cowboys face off in what should be a low scoring game.

28:06 – Baltimore Ravens -2.5 at Tennessee Titans — Titans ranked 26th offense but Rosenthal doesn’t trust the Ravens.

29:32 – Arizona Cardinals +10 at Minnesota Vikings — Will the Vikes run away with this one?

30:45 – Houston Texans -10 vs. Buffalo Bills — Sean’s Texans are the favorites, and Rosenthal lays out his Vikings/Texans/Packers teaser.

32:41- San Francisco 49ers +9.5 at Green Bay Packers — The Pack are the heavy favorites and the ideal pick for Rosenthal’s trifecta.

34:42 – Kansas City Chief +3.5 at New England Patriots — With a total at 59.5, watch this game and enjoy it.

37:00 – Rosenthal’s SuperContest picks of the week! (CLE +1, CAR +1, HOU -9.5, IND +2.5, JAX -3)

Bonus! Check out this week’s episode of  The Pro Football Handle featuring Robert Walker And Matt Perrault:

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Listen to more Cover City: NFL Week 6 Picks, Preview And NFL Stats With ESPN’s Mike Clay on SportsHandle.