Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.
By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.
We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 11 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)
NFL Week 11 Lines, Before And After: Carolina Bigger Favorite At Detroit Despite Getting Crushed By Steelers, Meanwhile Steelers Move Past Key Number Against Reeling Jaguars
Carolina Panthers (-4 or -3.5) at Detroit lions
It’s not often a team gets blown out on national television 52-21 and the line moves in their favor, but that’s what we have in this matchup. Last week the Panthers were -3 at the SuperBook and -1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Even after getting drilled by the Steelers, the line moved to Carolina -4.
That’s because the Lions are arguably the second worst team in the NFL right now. Detroit is 0-3 both SU and ATS in its last three games, losing by 14, 15 and 12 points over that span. Carolina didn’t show up last Thursday night in Pittsburgh but prior to that loss the Panthers were riding a three-game winning streak SU and ATS.
While the Lions look like they’ve waived the white flag on the season, it should be noted that the Panthers aren’t the same team away from home. Carolina is 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season with its lone win being a come-from-behind victory over the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Lions are 2-2 SU and ATS at home with wins over the Patriots and Packers.
There seems to be some value here with the Lions. The problem is Detroit has looked lifeless in its last three games, so it may not matter.