Arguably the most unique College Football Playoff in history concludes with No. 1 Indiana taking on No. 10 Miami in Monday night’s title game at Miami Gardens, Fla.
That the game is in Miami is one of the interesting wrinkles, as the Hurricanes will play the role of “visitors” in their home stadium. That one of the most successful programs in college football history is a massive underdog to a traditional basketball powerhouse is another.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Hoosiers settled in as consensus 7.5-point favorites as of Monday afternoon. That includes at BetMGM, where Indiana has been backed by 76% of the total spread-line bets and 79% of the money since the line opened at the same number.
The Hurricanes’ longshot odds of winning the game outright has drawn some support with 72% of the bets and 54% of the money backing Miami’s +260 moneyline.
The 47.5 total points line has also held steady since opening, with the Over backed by 79% of the total bets while the Under has been supported by 53% of the money.
PROP PICKS
–Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza 2+ Passing TDs (-175 at DraftKings): This is the most popular player prop at the book. Mendoza has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his past six games and it likely would have been five had the Hoosiers not turned to a run-heavy attack early in their 56-22 thumping of Oregon.
–Miami RB Mark Fletcher Anytime TD (+130 at BetMGM): This is the most popular Hurricanes-centric prop bet at the book, where Indiana dominates the action. Fletcher Jr. has been superb in the postseason with rushing outputs of 172, 90 and 133 yards through the first three games. However, he does not have a rushing touchdown on 58 combined carries after registering 10 rushing TDs during the regular season.
KEY STAT
While Miami has battled through tight games against Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss, Indiana has blitzed its first two playoff opponents by a combined score of 94-25.
THE NEWS
Indiana has never won a national championship, while the Hurricanes have won five, the most recent coming in the 2001 season.
Mendoza and the Hoosiers (15-0) are led by second-year head coach Curt Cignetti, who is 26-2 since leaving James Madison to become the Indiana coach.
“If you look at the record since Indiana started playing football and relative to the success we’ve had the last two years, we’ve broken a lot of records here in terms of wins, championships, postseason games, top-10 wins on the road, et cetera,” Cignetti said.
“So it’s been kind of surreal, but you get it done with the right people, properly led. You’ve got to have a blueprint, plan and process. You’ve got to have the right people on your staff and the right people in the locker room.”
One of those right people turned out to be Mendoza, who was a competent quarterback with 30 touchdowns against 16 interceptions during two starting seasons at Cal.
But with the Hoosiers, the transformation was stunning. Mendoza leads the nation with 41 touchdowns passes and has completed 73% of his passes for 3,349 yards while being intercepted just six times.
Mendoza became the first Heisman winner in Indiana history and is the overwhelming favorite to become the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The Hoosiers have become a powerful force. The semifinal bludgeoning of Oregon marked the seventh time the team scored 50 or more points this season.
That kind of firepower overshadows that the defense has allowed 10 or fewer points nine times. Safety Louis Moore grabbed six interceptions and outside linebacker Rolijah Hardy amassed eight sacks.
Miami (13-2) gets to play in its home venue and has impressively recorded three straight playoff wins despite some observers feeling they shouldn’t have made the CFP field.
That’s no longer a topic after the stellar string of victories over No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Ole Miss. The Hurricanes trailed the Rebels late in the semifinals before Carson Beck guided the decisive 15-play, 75-yard drive and scored on a 3-yard run with 18 seconds left.
Beck is in his sixth college season but first with Miami after spending five years at Georgia. He has thrown for 11,493 yards and 87 touchdowns against 31 interceptions in that time.
The Hurricanes were 6-2 after losing twice in three weeks before turning it on for the rest of the regular season. But coach Mario Cristobal said no team his club has faced is on par with the Hoosiers.
“They’re the best overall team and best defense we have faced,” Cristobal said. “I know that their rankings and anything statistically important are between 1 and 5. It starts with this. They’re really fast, physical, explosive, talented and smart. They play with a lot of physicality, a lot of violence. They make it very challenging.”
Miami’s defense is led by stellar defensive ends Akheem Mesidor (team-best 10.5 sacks) and Atlantic Coast Conference Defensive Player of the Year Rueben Bain Jr. (8.5 sacks).
THEY SAID IT
–“I still remember when I was in the transfer portal, Coach Cignetti said, ‘Hey, if you’re going to come here, you’re going to develop into a hell of a quarterback.’ It wasn’t about, at that point, ‘Hey, I’m going to promise you a national championship.’ It was, ‘You’re going to develop and have that belief.’” –Mendoza
–“I don’t know if it’s hit me yet, to be honest. I feel like during the game, or probably when the game starts, it will. It’ll be a thought that crosses my mind. Knowing that it is my last college football game ever and it being a national championship, what an opportunity. And regardless of what happens, what a season as well.” –Beck
PREDICTION
The Hurricanes have the ability to stay in any game courtesy of an outstanding defense and a highly experienced quarterback. However, they haven’t run into a team fully capable of handling their defensive line during this CFP run, and the Hoosiers are among the nation’s most well-balanced and talented units on both sides of the ball.
Expect Miami to keep the game within reach with a dogged commitment to the run and underneath passing games, with Indiana eventually pulling away with its strength in the trenches and superior big-play ability.
–Indiana 30, Miami 23
–Field Level Media
