‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye

The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye appeared first on SportsHandle.

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “Lookahead Lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 5 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 6 Lookahead and Current Line Moves Show Value on Miami Hosting Chicago; Falcons-Bucs Line Contracts As Atlanta Circles Drain; Faith In Raiders Bottoming Out

nfl week 6 picks bears dolphins lookahead lines

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+3 or especially +3.5)

The Bears come into Week 6 at 3-1 and atop the NFC North standings. Chicago was once 100/1 to win the Super Bowl this summer and are now down to 25/1 at the SuperBook.

Last week the SuperBook had the Dolphins -1. That line was similar to the one CG Technology released in May at Miami -1.5. However, the line has gone up the Bears -3 and Chicago didn’t even play last week.

While people’s perception of the Bears has changed since the season started, the Dolphins are going in the opposite direction. After starting the year 3-0, Miami has lost its last two games to the Patriots and Bengals by at least 10 points. One thing to keep in mind is the Bears have only played one road game this year, a 16-14 win over the Cardinals. The Dolphins beat the Titans 27-20 and the Raiders 28-20 in their two home games.

Miami is coming off a face-melting 27-17 loss to the Bengals after Cincinnati scored 24 fourth quarter points to win by 10, and cover 6.5. This movement spells some value on Miami as the 3-point home dog and especially if you grab an available hook.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

This game has seen the biggest line movement after the Falcons got blown out in Pittsburgh last week to drop to 1-4 on the season. The Buccaneers had a bye last week and will be making the switch to Jameis Winston at quarterback.

CG Technology made the Falcons a touchdown favorite back in May. The SuperBook’s early number was similar with the Falcons -6.5 last week. After the Falcons got blown out by the Steelers 41-17 on Sunday, the SuperBook released the line at Atlanta -3.5 and it hasn’t moved off that number as of Wednesday.

There could be some value taking the Falcons here, although they haven’t had much of a home field advantage this year, going 1-2 SU and ATS, and have hemorrhaged 43, 37 and 41 points in their past three contests. 


Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders (+3) – London

This game is being played in London and the Seahawks are seeing the line shift their way coming off a home loss to the Rams. The SuperBook made this game a pick ’em last week and then opened Seattle at -3. 

Even though the Seahawks are 2-3, the line says more about how bettors perceive the Raiders. The Jon Gruden era is off to a slow start with Oakland opening the season at 1-4. The Raiders have played three close game but they looked bad in a 26-10 blowout loss to the Chargers last week, while the Seahawks played well against the undefeated Rams, losing 33-31 as a 7-point underdog.

The London games are always tough because theirs no home field edge. The Seahawks look to be a little overvalued when you consider they’re coming off an emotional loss and now have to travel to London. This number looks like it should be closer to the pick it was last week and the -3 is an overreaction to Sunday’s results.


Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+3)

The Titans are leading the AFC South with a record of 3-2 and the Ravens are coming off a 12-9 loss to the Browns. Despite the Titans’ early season success, the line has gone towards the Ravens on the road.

Last week, the SuperBook had Baltimore -1 on the early lines but even after the Ravens’ loss to the Browns, the number has gone to -3. CG Technology had the Titans a 2.5-point favorite back in May and it can be argued that after five games, Tennessee has exceeded expectations.

The Titans are winning ugly and that kind of style typically doesn’t get the public excited. Tennessee has won both its home games by three points but a 13-12 loss in Buffalo last week is one reason the line went up to three. Losing to the Bills is one way to change the public’s perception of a team.

Note that the Ravens are 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Titans are worth a look as one of the most undervalued teams in the NFL, while the average Ravens tend to be overvalued right now.


Also Check Out:

On The Pro Football Handle, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmakingdive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the same from behind the microphone, so they’ll have you prepared for anything.

Here’s the NFL Week 6 pod:

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The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye appeared first on SportsHandle.

Lookahead Lines: NFL Week 4 Line Moves, Perception And Reality

 

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 4 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 3 Breakdown, Really Bad Teams, And Big Totals

The post ‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 3 Breakdown, Really Bad Teams, And Big Totals appeared first on SportsHandle.

On The Pro Football Handle, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker dive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the same from behind the microphone, so they’ll have you prepared for anything.

Most bettors got crushed in Week 2 as underdogs went 11-5 against the spread and seven dogs won outright. Woof. We have now a two-game sample and as usual, a handful of surprises. Two of the biggest early season surprises will meet on Monday Night Football — the desperate and winless Pittsburgh Steelers, favored by a point, against the undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Your comments are welcome at @sports_handle. Listen on on Spotify hereTime codes for the episode follow below.


02:48: The guys discuss the FanDuel Sportsbook dispute over an $82,000 ticket written in error. Walker has been involved in this intimately over the years. What’s an obvious mistake?

16:12:  New York Jets +3 at Cleveland Browns: “The Browns are legitimate favorites. It’s hard to even say that.” Expecting an interesting, close game.

19:45: Indianapolis Colts +6.5 at Philadelphia Eagles: How many points is Carson Wentz worth (in his first week back) versus Nick Foles?

22:58: Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Carolina Panthers: The undefeated (2-0) Bengals take the show on the road. “Bet Carolina or walk away.” Carolina is not a public team.

25:45: How does a bookmaker handle really, really, ridiculously bad teams? Such as the Cardinals and Bills (+16.5 at Minnesota).

29:54: Oakland Raiders +3 at Miami Dolphins: Opened at 4, bet down to 3. People simply don’t believe in Miami as Oakland is coming off a game they had to find a way to lose.

32:10: San Francisco 49ers +6.5 at Kansas City Chiefs: Whooole lotta money looking at the over right now on a total out to 56.

36:27: Battle of Los Angeles: Chargers +7 at Rams: Walker believes this closes at 7.5 or 7 -120.
“As a bookmaker we’ll need the Chargers. That’ll be one of biggest decisions of the day.” Rams are the real deal on both sides, the new Super Bowl favorite. “The pros take 7.5 early, always.”

38:27: Detroit Lions +7 at New England Patriots: Belichick against a former assistant coach, also off a loss… so what can the Lions do here? Books will need Lions and under (52).

40:50: Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: FitzMagic! The winless Steelers are staring at 0-2-1 and a full-fledged tailspin.

Come Monday night, the books will need the under, Walker says.


Have a profitable Week 3, folks. Thanks for listening and see you back next week, tell a friend, sign up for our newsletter and also check out the Cover City Podcast, featuring sports bettor Eric Rosenthal.

Follow Perrault on Twitter @sportstalkmatt and Walker @robertusfsports.

 

 

Veteran Oddsmaker Explains ‘Integrity Monitoring’ From Sportsbook Perspective

The post Veteran Oddsmaker Explains ‘Integrity Monitoring’ From Sportsbook Perspective appeared first on SportsHandle.

This is the second of a two-part series seeking to answer, “So What the Heck Is ‘Integrity Monitoring’, Anyway?” (Read Part I here.)

Even before the United States Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in May, the NBA and Major League Baseball began lobbying state legislatures for funds to finance “integrity monitoring” measures. Part of the leagues’ claim is that expanded legal wagering will create new, greater obligations for sports leagues. 

But what exactly is “integrity monitoring,” and how are bookmakers perceiving the leagues’ efforts to garner an “integrity fee?” In the first installment of this series, we spoke to Jennifer Roberts, Associate Director of the International Center for Gaming Regulation, a gaming lawyer and adjunct professor at University of Nevada Las Vegas, who teaches such courses as fundamentals of casino operations management.

Here, to get the behind-the-counter perspective, we spoke to Robert Walker, who heads up sportsbook operations for USBookmaking. Walker’s resume also includes nearly 12 years as the director of race and sportsbook operations for MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, and before that served as the race and sportsbook manager for The Stardust.

 

Read more Veteran Oddsmaker Explains ‘Integrity Monitoring’ From Sportsbook Perspective on SportsHandle.

What Happens to Betting Lines When Everyone Bets the Home Team?

The post NFL Betting Lines Conundrum: What Happens When Everyone Bets the Home Team? appeared first on SportsHandle.
One of the most compelling aspects of the rollout of national sports wagering on a state-by-state basis is the ability of each state to provide different marketplaces for individual bettors.
In its infancy, well before the internet and the significant offshore market, the bigger sports bettors in Nevada spent considerable time, effort and even money, through the use of runners, to get the best number for the games they wanted to bet.
A number of factors have homogenized the betting lines in Nevada over the last 15 years. Major casino companies began running many sportsbooks at locations all over the state. There’s the emergence of the offshore betting market, the advent of the internet and the ability to make bets online, and later the smartphone putting books right into the bettor’s palm. With legal sports betting expanding across the U.S., another evolution is due: What happens when home teams take a ton of action as other bettors stand ready to take advantage?
College Football and NFL Betting Lines Plot Twist: ‘Line Shading’ and Finding Opportunity in New Markets

John Taylor (82), Joe Montana (16) and Jerry Rice (80) in 1987.

Nevada sports bettors in earlier decades could always count on the differences between the Las Vegas and Reno lines in NFL games involving the Raiders and 49ers. Those two Northern California teams — with a long tradition of winning and covering the point spread in the 1980s and into the 1990s — meant you would have to lay more points in Northern Nevada than in Las Vegas. This practice, sometimes called “line shading,” still exists in Nevada, but not to the extent it did a few decades ago.
For example, the line in Las Vegas might have been Raiders -3 against the Broncos, while in Reno it might be shaded in the Raiders direction with the Silver and Black favored -4.5. The money line, for those wanting to wager without the point spread, was usually adjusted or shaded to make the two Northern California teams less attractive to bettors and their opponents a more appealing play.
When Nevada was the only place to make a legal bet on sports, bookmakers had to create their own lines without the help of today’s modern technology. In the 70s, 80s and into the 90s the overall handle was miniscule compared to today. The huge growth of sports betting handle in more recent years in the state meant bookmakers had to alter their primary skill set to adjusting an existing line, rather than establishing an opening number that could attract too much action on one side.
The danger was created when a poor opening line had to be significantly changed, creating a “middle” where a bettor who had jumped on an early number might be able to then wager on a later spread. If the game fell in the middle, both bets could be winners.
Now, Nevada linemakers are able to consider lines posted offshore that have been “bet into,” or taken a wave of money, often millions. Line movements responding to betting action rather than injuries or outside factors do occur, but not to the extent or degree they did in earlier years.
It’s hard in today’s marketplace to find different lines up and down The Strip, so the only way the smart bettors get a little edge is to look for different lines offshore, where high volume allows bookmakers to hold less, but take in more big bets.
Nevada books need a much larger hold in order to pay for all the overhead that offshore operators don’t have. Offshore books will move lines to get “take back,” which is bets on the other side, while corporate books usually are not looking to move numbers for fear of the dreaded middle.

Times have changed

legal nfl betting not as easy to exploit line changes
Variations in the marketplace can now be difficult to discover, so the emphasis has moved to a player seizing an opening or early line in which the bettor feels there’s a perceived edge, rather than looking for differences in numbers that have already been bet into. In more recent years, at least one major Nevada betting company, William Hill, with a major presence in northern Nevada, continues to offer some different betting lines in the north and the south to take best advantage of the differences in the two marketplaces.
However, look for the line differences to become more widely available and crucial once again in new sports betting states, such as New Jersey, where different sportsbook operators in different regions will be adjusting their lines with a definite lean to those fans in their area.
New sports bettors in the emerging U.S. markets will soon learn the value of getting the best number when the lose a wagers by a half point, commonly referred to as “the hook.”
With mobile apps taking on increasing importance in recent years, many major Nevada players have mobile accounts with different companies to take advantage of line differences, if possible. Some have even funded mobile accounts in person with sportsbooks in the north and the south so they can take advantage of line shading without having to journey to another part of the state. As long as they are “geo-located” in Nevada, they can bet with the outlet that gives them the line they want. Years ago, the smaller northern Nevada books even had phone accounts at the bigger Las Vegas books so they could lay off bets when wagers on the 49ers and Raiders created too much exposure to big losses.

Shading and Shopping Around: A Coming Example in the Northeast

The sports betting landscape in New Jersey and the whole Northeast Corridor is ripe for a resurgence of line shading as well as line shopping, as the various entities open up for sports betting. The lines for the New York teams will most certainly be shaded to take advantage of local fans that want to bet the local teams. However, in Atlantic City, much closer to Philadelphia, the teams from The City of Brotherly Love will have the betting lines shaded to take advantage of those fans.
Philadelphia Eagles fans may be better off betting their Super Bowl futures and win totals at the Meadowlands, near New York City, when it opens Saturday, rather than in Atlantic City. Likewise, Giants and Jets fans may get better numbers on the Boardwalk. And bettors who like the opponents of the New York Giants, New York Jets or Eagles? Go look for the lines in the hearts of those fan bases.
legal nfl betting in new jersey could make bookmaking interesting for bettors and oddsmakers
When phone and online betting opens soon in New Jersey and if you can, as expected, sign-up and fund mobile accounts without an in-person visit, serious bettors and, perhaps, the less serious, will likely open mobile accounts at every book possible and shop the lines to get the best number. Such shopping will be an important element and will make sports betting even more exciting that ever. After all, everyone loves a bargain, real or imagined.
Pennsylvania and New York will both (likely) enter the sports betting fray in the next 12 months. Serious players who live near the border of both states and near New Jersey are likely to have accounts in all three jurisdictions, so if the opportunity presents, they can make a short drive to access, via their mobile device, the number they like.
Whether they know it now or learn it later, bettors will soon realize how crucial getting the best number can be when it comes to fattening the wallet. Right now, with legal sports betting regimes still some time away in New York and Pennsylvania, residents will flood across the border to New Jersey to open accounts. You don’t have to be a state resident to bet in New Jersey, only physically located there to get down.
I can see cellular phone lots being built on the New Jersey side of the George Washington Bridge (GWB) or at the Garden State entrance to the Lincoln Tunnel so players can park, bet and go home. Along the New Jersey border, savvy tavern and restaurant owners will cater to these players, too. The promotion-minded Meadowlands, when it opens, may even offer to reimburse bettors for the GWB toll, now $15.00, or Lincoln Tunnel toll, now $10.50 on weekends.
Look for the smarter players to shop their number and the less experienced ones to learn quickly. As always, learning what to do and what not to do will cost money.
The post NFL Betting Lines Conundrum: What Happens When Everyone Bets the Home Team? appeared first on SportsHandle.