Lookahead Lines Archives - National Football Post

NFL Week 11 Lookahead Lines: Eagles Now Big Underdogs At New Orleans, Carolina Bigger Faves at Detroit Despite Steelers Blowout

Posted on 14 November 2018 | by Thomas Casale

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 11 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 11 Lines, Before And After: Carolina Bigger Favorite At Detroit Despite Getting Crushed By Steelers, Meanwhile Steelers Move Past Key Number Against Reeling Jaguars

nfl week 11 lines betting jags steelers

Carolina Panthers (-4 or -3.5) at Detroit lions

It’s not often a team gets blown out on national television 52-21 and the line moves in their favor, but that’s what we have in this matchup. Last week the Panthers were -3 at the SuperBook and -1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Even after getting drilled by the Steelers, the line moved to Carolina -4.

That’s because the Lions are arguably the second worst team in the NFL right now. Detroit is 0-3 both SU and ATS in its last three games, losing by 14, 15 and 12 points over that span. Carolina didn’t show up last Thursday night in Pittsburgh but prior to that loss the Panthers were riding a three-game winning streak SU and ATS.

While the Lions look like they’ve waived the white flag on the season, it should be noted that the Panthers aren’t the same team away from home. Carolina is 1-3 SU and ATS on the road this season with its lone win being a come-from-behind victory over the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Lions are 2-2 SU and ATS at home with wins over the Patriots and Packers.

There seems to be some value here with the Lions. The problem is Detroit has looked lifeless in its last three games, so it may not matter.

NFL Week 10: In ‘Lookahead Lines,’ Steelers Drop From 6.5 to 4, Falcons Gettin’ Respect

Posted on 7 November 2018 | by Thomas Casale

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines” o see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the NFL Week 10 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 9 Lines, Before And After: Some Value on Steelers at Home, Big Shift in Falcons and Browns, Also Looking at Lions and Redskins

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

The Panthers haven’t gotten a lot of respect from oddsmakers this year. Just two weeks ago they were a home underdog to the Ravens and the line against the Steelers was 6.5 when the SuperBook released its early numbers last week.

The number stayed at 6.5 when the SuperBook and many other shops put out their opening numbers for Week 10 but the Panthers were quickly bet down to +4 within 24 hours. As of Tuesday, that’s where the line was at most Las Vegas sportsbooks. The Panthers are on a three-game winning streak with wins over the Eagles, Ravens and Buccaneers. Carolina is also 3-0 ATS in those games, two of them at home. The Panthers haven’t fared as well on the road this season, going 1-2 both SU and ATS.

The Steelers are also rolling with four consecutive wins both SU and ATS. After losing their first two games at home outright to the Chiefs and Ravens, the Steelers have won their last two over the Browns and Falcons by over two touchdowns.

The money came in on the Panthers but so far this year, Carolina hasn’t been the same team away from home. With the Steelers hitting their stride, there’s some value laying the short number at home, especially if the line continues to drop.

Read the remainder of NFL Week 10: In ‘Lookahead Lines,’ Steelers Drop From 6.5 to 4, Falcons Gettin’ Respect on SportsHandle.

NFL Week 9: In ‘Lookahead Lines,’ Intrigue As Broncos Trade WR Thomas to Opponent

Posted on 31 October 2018 | by Brett Smiley

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the NFL Week 9 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated are based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 9 Lines, Before And After: Texans-Broncos, Rams-Saints in NFC Heavyweight Clash; FitzMagic Getting 7 At Carolina?

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1)

The Texans-Broncos matchup has the most notable line movement of the week. The SuperBook made the Texans a 1.5-point road favorite last week in its early lines. Houston then destroyed the Dolphins on national TV Thursday night, 42-23. Meanwhile, the Broncos fell (and covered) in Kansas City, 30-23.

The Texans have won five straight (3-2 ATS), while Denver is 1-5 in its last six games (3-3 ATS). The SuperBook opened this number as a pick ’em on Sunday night and within a couple hours it moved to the Broncos -2.5. The Texans did suffer a big loss against Miami when receiver Will Fuller tore his ACL. Deshaun Watson’s numbers are much better with Fuller in the lineup. But is Fuller worth four points? Traditionally only QBs cause moves like that.

The public has come out ahead the last two weeks and they’re certain to be on the Texans Sunday. The Broncos are 2-2 at home this year and 2-1-1 ATS.

But then on Tuedsay an hour after the Broncos traded for WR Demaryius Thomas to their opponent this week — the Texans! — the line dropped to Denver -1.5 and to -1 as of Wednesday morning. Don’t be surprised if Houston is a slight favorite by kickoff. The Texans are playing much better over the last month but the value may end up being on Denver if it becomes a home ‘dog.

‘Lookahead Lines’: Big Swing In London’s Jags-Eagles Tilt, Colts Now Spotting Raiders 3 In Oakland

Posted on 24 October 2018 | by Brett Smiley

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung a week or days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 8 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 7 Lines, Before And After: Jaguars-Eagles Goes From Pick’em to Field Goal, Raiders Now FG Home Dogs to Colts; More Patriots Domination at Buffalo to Come?

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (London)

This line had remained steady up until this week when the perception of the Jaguars changed. CG Technology made the line a pick ’em back in May when they released numbers for every NFL game. Last week, the line remained there when the SuperBook released its early lines.

However, after the Jaguars got blown out for the third game in a row at home against the Texans, the number opened at Eagles -3 and that’s where it stayed as of Wednesday. The Eagles blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead last week at home to the Panthers to fall to 3-4 on the season, but the Jaguars present a more worrying picture. Jacksonville’s defense has taken a step back, separate from the struggles at quarterback. Blake Bortles was benched mid-game against Houston in favor of Cody Kessler. Jags coach Doug Marrone is going back to Bortles for the start this week but he’ll be on a short leash again.

These squads are meeting in London and the fact that the Eagles have moved off a PK to -3 in one week shows that oddsmakers are losing faith in the Jaguars. But Philly is also just 2-5 ATS, so while people are down on the Jaguars, there’s some value with them getting three points in this matchup.

‘Lookahead Lines’: Rams-49ers Line Tightens, Titans Out to 6.5 At Chargers

Posted on 16 October 2018 | by Brett Smiley

The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Rams-49ers Line Tightens, Titans Out to 6.5 At Chargers appeared first on SportsHandle.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 7 line moves and what it means for bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

Week 7 NFL Lines: Titans See Big Swing After Drubbing to Baltimore, 49ers-Rams Tightens

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

The perception of these two teams has really changed since Sunday. The Chargers are now close to a touchdown favorite after the SuperBook listed them at -3 last week when it released its early lines. Los Angeles is coming off a 38-14 blowout win in Cleveland, while the Titans suffered an ugly 21-0 home loss to the Ravens where quarterback Marcus Mariota was sacked 11 times. Tennessee had won three straight by a field goal over the Texans, Jaguars and Eagles but since then has dropped back-to-back games to the Bills and Ravens, falling 13-12 at Buffalo with all 12 points coming on Ryan Succop field goals. Tennessee has now failed to score an offensive touchdown in three of its six games this year.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have lost only to the Chiefs and Rams, who are a combined 11-1. Despite the Chargers having a record just one game better than the Titans, oddsmakers view these teams as going in opposite directions and the line now reflects that. But — is that substantial 3.5-point swing an overreaction? It looks like Titans or pass in this spot.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)

The Browns, featured on the most recent season of HBO’s Hard Knocks, have been a favorite of bettors dating back to the summer when the SuperBook had them as one of their biggest liabilities to win the Super Bowl. That love has subsided a bit after Cleveland got hammered at home by the Chargers last week as one-point underdogs.

The Bucs were -1.5 last week at the SuperBook and that line has now settled at 3. The Buccaneers lost a shootout to the Falcons 34-29 last week but there seems to be more faith in them with Jameis Winston at quarterback rather than journeyman rollercoaster Ryan Fitzpatrick. Note that Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield injured his ankle against the Chargers but he’s expected to play on Sunday. The oddsmakers have been giving Cleveland (4-2 ATS) a lot of respect this year, although this is a time where there looks to be some value taking the Browns, catching the field goal.

Cleveland has just one win but two of their losses are by three points. Now the offense can dig into the Buccaneers’ 31st ranked defense, now under the direction of linebackers coach Mark Duffner after defensive coordinator Mike Smith was fired on Monday. Browns offer line that’s 1.5 points higher than last week and are worth a look, assuming Mayfield plays.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

The Ravens are coming off the most dominant defensive performance of the season in their 21-0 shutout of the Titans where the team recorded 11 sacks, one shy of the NFL record. As mentioned above, the game changed the perception of Tennessee. It also changed public perception of Baltimore.

The Ravens were a pick’em in this spot last week at the SuperBook and that number moved to 2.5 when the lines were released Sunday at most sportsbooks.

The Saints had a bye last week but have won four straight and are coming off blowout wins over the Giants and Redskins. It will be interesting to see if this number reaches three. Either way, the value lies with the Saints. The Ravens’ defense is good but not as good as it looked last week versus the hapless Titans offense. Drew Brees and the Saints present a much bigger challenge.

Watch this line and see where it goes. The Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye and 16-5 ATS their last 21 on the road. If New Orleans gets to +3, give the Saints serious consideration.

Los Angeles Rams (-10) at San Francisco 49ers

This number has seen a lot movement since the summer when the 49ers were a popular pick to make a playoff run. The perception of the team has obviously changed since San Francisco lost starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for the season due to a knee injury.

It’s hard to believe now but the Rams opened -1 when CG Technology released its early lines in May, a number that ballooned to 12.5 last week at the SuperBook. After the 49ers performed well on Monday night and almost upset the Packers in Green Bay, the line has settled in at -10 at a majority of Las Vegas sports books.

Since C.J. Beathard replaced Garoppolo at quarterback, the 49ers are 2-1 ATS. They lost outright to the Cardinals as 3-point favorites yet covered twice as big underdogs (10 and 9 points) to the Chargers and Packers. San Francisco lost those two games by a combined five points.

The Rams are 0-3 ATS in their last three games and have been favored by at least a touchdown in all of them. The 49ers are coming off an emotional loss Monday night but they look like a live dog this week getting 10 points at home.

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The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Rams-49ers Line Tightens, Titans Out to 6.5 At Chargers appeared first on SportsHandle.

‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye

Posted on 11 October 2018 | by Brett Smiley

The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye appeared first on SportsHandle.

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “Lookahead Lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 5 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 6 Lookahead and Current Line Moves Show Value on Miami Hosting Chicago; Falcons-Bucs Line Contracts As Atlanta Circles Drain; Faith In Raiders Bottoming Out

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+3 or especially +3.5)

The Bears come into Week 6 at 3-1 and atop the NFC North standings. Chicago was once 100/1 to win the Super Bowl this summer and are now down to 25/1 at the SuperBook.

Last week the SuperBook had the Dolphins -1. That line was similar to the one CG Technology released in May at Miami -1.5. However, the line has gone up the Bears -3 and Chicago didn’t even play last week.

While people’s perception of the Bears has changed since the season started, the Dolphins are going in the opposite direction. After starting the year 3-0, Miami has lost its last two games to the Patriots and Bengals by at least 10 points. One thing to keep in mind is the Bears have only played one road game this year, a 16-14 win over the Cardinals. The Dolphins beat the Titans 27-20 and the Raiders 28-20 in their two home games.

Miami is coming off a face-melting 27-17 loss to the Bengals after Cincinnati scored 24 fourth quarter points to win by 10, and cover 6.5. This movement spells some value on Miami as the 3-point home dog and especially if you grab an available hook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

This game has seen the biggest line movement after the Falcons got blown out in Pittsburgh last week to drop to 1-4 on the season. The Buccaneers had a bye last week and will be making the switch to Jameis Winston at quarterback.

CG Technology made the Falcons a touchdown favorite back in May. The SuperBook’s early number was similar with the Falcons -6.5 last week. After the Falcons got blown out by the Steelers 41-17 on Sunday, the SuperBook released the line at Atlanta -3.5 and it hasn’t moved off that number as of Wednesday.

There could be some value taking the Falcons here, although they haven’t had much of a home field advantage this year, going 1-2 SU and ATS, and have hemorrhaged 43, 37 and 41 points in their past three contests.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders (+3) – London

This game is being played in London and the Seahawks are seeing the line shift their way coming off a home loss to the Rams. The SuperBook made this game a pick ’em last week and then opened Seattle at -3.

Even though the Seahawks are 2-3, the line says more about how bettors perceive the Raiders. The Jon Gruden era is off to a slow start with Oakland opening the season at 1-4. The Raiders have played three close game but they looked bad in a 26-10 blowout loss to the Chargers last week, while the Seahawks played well against the undefeated Rams, losing 33-31 as a 7-point underdog.

The London games are always tough because theirs no home field edge. The Seahawks look to be a little overvalued when you consider they’re coming off an emotional loss and now have to travel to London. This number looks like it should be closer to the pick it was last week and the -3 is an overreaction to Sunday’s results.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+3)

The Titans are leading the AFC South with a record of 3-2 and the Ravens are coming off a 12-9 loss to the Browns. Despite the Titans’ early season success, the line has gone towards the Ravens on the road.

Last week, the SuperBook had Baltimore -1 on the early lines but even after the Ravens’ loss to the Browns, the number has gone to -3. CG Technology had the Titans a 2.5-point favorite back in May and it can be argued that after five games, Tennessee has exceeded expectations.

The Titans are winning ugly and that kind of style typically doesn’t get the public excited. Tennessee has won both its home games by three points but a 13-12 loss in Buffalo last week is one reason the line went up to three. Losing to the Bills is one way to change the public’s perception of a team.

Note that the Ravens are 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Titans are worth a look as one of the most undervalued teams in the NFL, while the average Ravens tend to be overvalued right now.

Also Check Out:

On The Pro Football Handle, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmakingdive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the same from behind the microphone, so they’ll have you prepared for anything.

Here’s the NFL Week 6 pod:

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The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye appeared first on SportsHandle.

Lookahead Lines: Ravens Become Bigger Favorites Over Browns On Road

Posted on 3 October 2018 | by Brett Smiley

The post Lookahead Lines: Ravens Become Bigger Favorites Over Browns On Road appeared first on SportsHandle.

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL “lookahead lines,” to see how current lines are moving in comparison and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

Lookahead Lines: NFL Week 4 Line Moves, Perception And Reality

Posted on 26 September 2018 | by Brett Smiley

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 4 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)