Sep 27, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) throws a pass against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Fernando Mania: New favorite emerges atop 2026 NFL Draft

While their Heisman Trophy hopes may have taken direct hits over the weekend, the fortunes of four quarterbacks continue to be on the rise when it comes to projecting the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the new favorite for the top pick in next year’s draft at FanDuel.

He is being offered at +300. The Cal transfer did throw an interception in a close win over unranked Iowa, but Mendoza also tossed a pair of touchdown passes and is completing 73 percent of his passes this season.

Mendoza has thrown for 1,208 yards and 16 touchdowns against the lone interception through five games. That has helped trim his odds of being the No. 1 overall pick next spring from +700 at the book just a week ago.

2026 NFL DRAFT NO. 1 PICK ODDS*
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (+300)
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (+350)
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (+460)
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (+1300)
Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami, Fla. (+1500)
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+1900)
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (+2200)
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+2500)
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (+2500)
Jayden Maiava, QB, Southern Cal (+2700)
Carson Beck, QB, Miami, Fla. (+2700)
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (+2700)
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (+3000)
*FanDuel

South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers, briefly the Heisman favorite earlier this season before suffering a concussion, is being offered at +350.

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is almost out of the Heisman conversation following LSU’s loss to Ole Miss on Saturday. More concerning has been his continued mediocre play. Nussmeier has thrown seven touchdowns and three interceptions while completing a career-best 67.3 percent of his passes, but has struggled to establish LSU’s vertical passing game on a consistent basis. He declined questions about his health as speculation about playing hurt popped up in recent weeks.

Still, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound Lake Charles, La., native continues to intrigue NFL scouts looking for a traditional pocket passer. He remains +460 to go No. 1 overall, although that is down from +320 before being held under 200 passing yards by Ole Miss.

There is a significant dropoff to the fourth-shortest odds, currently owned by Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer. Another previous Heisman favorite who is now on the outside looking in while recovering from hand surgery, Mateer is +1300 at FanDuel in top draft pick futures.

The shortest odds for a non-quarterback belong to Miami (Fla.) pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr. at +1500. Through four games, Bain has produced a pair of sacks along with four tackles for loss and an interception to help shorten his odds from +2000 last week. Bain is the only non-quarterback among the top 10.

Arch Manning, the favorite to go No. 1 overall before the season began, remains in the picture at +2500. However, there is growing speculation that he may return to college in 2026 given his significant struggles through the first month. He is just behind Oregon’s Dante Moore (+1900) and Penn State’s Drew Allar (+2200), who squared off in Oregon’s win at Penn State on Saturday.

Moore got the best of Allar, who threw an interception on the first play of Penn State’s second possession in overtime. Allar was +1300 last week and still offers an intriguing blend of size at 6-5, 235 along with mobility, but has struggled to impress in many of his biggest games with the Nittany Lions.

–Field Level Media

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore carries the ball as the Oregon Ducks face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania.

Ducks QB Dante Moore newest Heisman favorite

Five official weeks of the 2025 college football season have now produced a half dozen Heisman Trophy favorites.

The new leading candidate is Oregon quarterback Dante Moore, who rose to the top spot at most sportsbooks following the Ducks’ 30-24 win at Penn State on Saturday. Moore completed 29 of 39 passes for 248 yards and three touchdowns while Oregon improved to 5-0, and he is now the +750 Heisman favorite at BetMGM and DraftKings, among other.

Moore began the season at +2000 but has benefited from a combination of injuries and subpar play from five other quarterbacks who have spent time at the top: Texas’ Arch Manning, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza.

Moore’s rise thus far pales in comparison to that of Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, who opened as a +5500 longshot. A season-opening loss to Florida State was a further setback, but Simpson has impressed since. That includes throwing for 276 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Saturday’s win at Georgia, after which Simpson vaulted to the No. 2 Heisman favorite at +900 with DraftKings.

All the shuffling among the marquee quarterbacks has also helped the campaign of Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. He is now tied for the third-shortest odds at +1100 along with Beck and Mendoza.

Smith has racked up 396 yards and four touchdowns on 28 catches through five games. Mendoza briefly rose to the Heisman favorite perch last week, but slipped following a modest performance in a tight victory over Iowa.

HEISMAN TROPHY ODDS*
PLAYER, POS, TEAM, WEEK 5, CURRENT
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+1000), (+750)
Carson Beck, QB, Miami (+1200), (+900)
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (+2000), (+1000)
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+1400), (+1000)
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (+650), (+1300)
Joey Aguilar, QB, Tennessee (+1500), (+1300)
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M (+1500), (+1500)
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt, (+5000), (+1500)
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss (+1500)
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (+1700), (+1700)
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+2500), (+2000)
Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia (+1400), (+2000)
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (+4000), (+2000)
Jayden Maiava, QB, Southern Cal (+1600), (+2000)

Miami quarterback Carson Beck was idle over the weekend ahead of a critical game for his Heisman hopes at rival Florida State this Saturday. He currently owns the second shortest odds at BetMGM, where Smith and Simpson are both being offered at +1000 ahead of Mendoza and Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar at +1300.

Simpson was +2000 at the book just last week. In addition to the big win at Georgia hurting counterpart Gunner Stockton’s campaign, Simpson benefitted by LSU’s Nussmeier and Southern Cal’s Jayden Maiava suffering losses over the weekend.

One of the biggest risers this week was Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, who rocketed from +5000 to +1500 after accounting for six touchdowns in a rout of Utah State. Also entering the conversation was Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who wasn’t even on BetMGM’s board at the outset. But he is now +1500 after orchestrating the 24-19 upset of LSU.

The constant fluctuation in the Heisman race before the calendar even his October stands to serve as a significant win for sportsbooks.

BetMGM reported that its four biggest liabilities in the market are Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, Manning, Mateer and Sellers. Manning has still been backed by the most money (12 percent), followed by Nussmeier (8.8), Mateer (7.6) and Sellers (7.1). Love, who opened at +5000, is still on the outside of the conversation at +2500 while drawing 4.7 percent of the money.

The biggest current threat to the book is Smith, who has been backed by 6.9 percent of the money and 8.0 percent of the bets since opening at +1300.

–Field Level Media

Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) and IIndiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) celebrate after a touchdown during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

John Mateer’s injury props up new Heisman favorite

Fernando Mendoza, step on up, you are the newest Heisman Trophy favorite in a season that has seen five candidates rise to the top before the calendar hits October.

Following the news that Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer will undergo hand surgery that is expected to sideline him for a month, Mendoza suddenly is the Heisman favorite at most sportsbooks.

Barely on the Heisman radar when the season began a month ago, the Indiana quarterback vaulted into the conversation with a five-touchdown performance in last week’s 63-10 rout of Illinois. He was +900 on Monday, just behind Mateer at +700. With Mateer now sidelined, Mendoza is the +650 favorite at BetMGM.

Mateer had just separated himself from the pack with Oklahoma’s come-from-behind win at home against Auburn. He had been jockeying for the top spot with Miami’s Carson Beck, and they had followed preseason favorite Arch Manning from Texas along with LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier.

Mateer’s odds plummeted to +2000 with the injury news. Meanwhile, Oregon’s Dante Moore shifted to the No. 2 spot at +1000, followed by Beck at +1200. It also provided a boost to Jeremiah Smith, who has the shortest odds among non-quarterbacks. Ohio State’s wide receiver is now +1400, even with Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton.

The book currently stands to do very well in the Heisman market, with the three biggest liabilities being Manning, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers. Manning leads all players with 13.2 percent of the money wagered backing him to win the award.

Mateer had garnered a lot of interest over the past few weeks and had become the book’s fourth biggest liability, just ahead of Nussmeier. None are currently among the top five favorites, with Nussmeier the only one among the top 10 at +!500.

DraftKings also is offering Mendoza as the new favorite at +700. He closely is followed by Moore (+850) ahead of Beck (+1200), Stockton (+1300) and Aguilar and Smith at +1400.

HEISMAN TROPHY ODDS*
PLAYER, POS, TEAM, PRE-MATEER INJURY, CURRENT
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (+900), (+650)
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+1200), (+1000)
Carson Beck, QB, Miami (+1200), (+1200)
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+1600), (+1400)
Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia (+1400), (+1400)
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M (+1500), (+1500)
Josh Hoover, QB, TCU, (+1500), (+1500)
Joey Aguilar, QB, Tennessee (+1500), (+1500)
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (+1500), (+1500)
Jayden Maiava, QB, Southern Cal (+2000), (+1600)
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (+1700), (+1700)
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (+2000), (+2000)
Thomas Castellanos, QB, Florida State (+2000)
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+2500), (+2500)
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (+700), (+2200)
Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech (+2500), (+2500)
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (+3000), (+3000)
Beau Pribula, QB, Missouri, (+3500), (+3500)
Jackson Arnold, QB Auburn (+4000), (+4000)
Devon Dampier, QB, Utah (+4000), (+4000)
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (+4000), (+4000)
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt, (+5000), (+5000)
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (+5000), (+5000)
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (+8000)
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (+10000)
DJ Lagway, QB, Florida (+30000)
*BetMGM

–Field Level Media

Sep 20, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) celebrates after the game against the Auburn Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

John Mateer leads, Fernando Mendoza vaults into Heisman picture

The optics were impressive over the weekend for Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, the quarterbacks who are the two current Heisman favorites at most sportsbooks.

Mateer, who had already emerged at the front of the pack, continued to tack onto his early season resume by leading the Sooners to a 24-17 victory over Auburn. The Washington State transfer has now produced a rushing and passing touchdown in 10 consecutive games while his Heisman odds shifted from +900 to +700 at BetMGM.

That is just ahead of Mendoza, who vaulted to the No. 2 spot at +900 after throwing five touchdown passes in the Hoosier’s 63-10 rout of Illinois. Mendoza was not among the top 10 Heisman favorites at the book last week, but the Miami native has now thrown 14 touchdowns with no interceptions through Indiana’s 4-0 start.

While Mendoza was serving notice of his Heisman campaign, the Cal transfer saw his former team shut out 34-0 by two-touchdown underdog San Diego State on Saturday.

The No. 11 Hoosiers travel to Iowa this weekend before a big showdown at No. 6 Oregon. Ducks quarterback Dante Moore has the third-shortest Heisman odds at +1200 at BetMGM along with Miami’s Carson Beck. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton rounds out the top 5 at +1400.

Mateer (+750), Mendoza (+950) and Moore (+1100) are the three current favorites at BetMGM, where Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed and Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar are each +1400. Beck has fallen to +1500, where he is even with Stockton and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Beck has guided Miami to a 4-0 start that includes wins over Notre Dame and Florida, but the Hurricanes relied heavily on their ground game in Saturday’s 26-7 win over the Gators. Beck struggled to move the ball through the air, passing for 160 yards and an interception while failing to throw a touchdown.

Smith is also the top non-quarterback at BetMGM, where he is being offered at +1600. The sophomore has 315 receiving yards and three touchdowns through three games. Also making a giant leap was TCU quarterback Josh Hoover, who is +1500 after throwing for 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns during the Horned Frogs’ 3-0 start.

Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold suffered one of the week’s biggest drops, plummeting from +2000 to +4000 following the Tigers’ loss at Oklahoma in which he was sacked 10 times. Utah’s Devon Dampier suffered the same fate following the Utes’ decisive loss against Texas Tech.

Preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning saw his odds tick back up to +2500 from +3500 following Texas’ 55-0 dismantling of Sam Houston.

The book currently stands to do very well in the Heisman market, with the three biggest liabilities being Manning, Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love and South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers. All three are on the fringe of Heisman consideration before the calendar even hits October, with Manning leading all players with 13.2 percent of the money wagered backing him to win the award.

HEISMAN TROPHY ODDS*
PLAYER, POS, TEAM, SEPT. 1, CURRENT
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma (+1300), (+700)
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (N/A), (+900)
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon (+2000), (+1200)
Carson Beck, QB, Miami (+1200), (+1200)
Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia (+1200), (+1400)
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M (N/A), (+1500)
Josh Hoover, QB, TCU, (N/A), (+1500)
Joey Aguilar, QB, Tennessee (+5000), (+1500)
Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (+650), (+1500)
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+1500), (+1600)
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (+2500), (+1700)
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama (N/A), (+2000)
Thomas Castellanos, QB, Florida State (N/A), (+2000)
Jayden Maiava, QB, Southern Cal (N/A), (+2000)
Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+1600), (+2500)
Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech (N/A), (+2500)
Drew Allar, QB, Penn State (+1600), (+3000)
Beau Pribula, QB, Missouri, (N/A), (+3500)
Jackson Arnold, QB Auburn (+2000), (+4000)
Devon Dampier, QB, Utah (+2500), (+4000)
Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State (+1600), (+4000)
Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt, (N/A), (+5000)
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame (+2500), (+5000)
LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina (+700), (+8000)
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (+1600), (+10000)
DJ Lagway, QB, Florida (+2000), (+30000)
*BetMGM

–Field Level Media

Nov 23, 2024; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) throws a pass against the Stanford Cardinal during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Report: Ex-Cal QB Fernando Mendoza signs with Indiana

Former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza is transferring to Indiana, ESPN reported Tuesday.

The 6-foot-5, 225-pound sophomore passed for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions in 11 games for the Golden Bears in 2024.

Over two seasons at Cal, Mendoza completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 4,712 yards, 30 TDs and 16 picks in 20 games. He also rushed for 197 yards and four scores.

Mendoza will compete to replace Kurtis Rourke in Bloomington. Rourke guided the Hoosiers to the College Football Playoff, where their season ended Friday in a 27-17 first-round loss at Notre Dame.

Mendoza’s younger brother, Alberto, was a freshman quarterback at Indiana this season. He played in one game, completing his only pass attempt for 6 yards in a Sept. 6 win against Western Illinois.

Fernando Mendoza was ranked as the No. 4 overall player in the transfer portal by ESPN.

–Field Level Media