Oct 28, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) drops back to pass against the Utah Utes during the first half at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports

Conference championship futures: No-brainer bets for Big Ten, Pac-12

The calendar has flipped to November, and it’s time to call our shots on the relative betting value featuring conference championships.

We have our top choices for three conference title-game winners, including what we believe is a Big Ten no-brainer.

CONFERENCE FUTURE BET NO. 1: The American Athletic Conference

Two schools, Tulane (ranked 24th in the first College Football Playoff rankings) and SMU, have led the AAC this season and are ranked among the top 50 college teams on the Action Network’s betting power rankings.

The seemingly inseparable pair are on a collision course to meet in the conference championship game, to be held Dec. 2 at the site of the regular-season champ.

SMU (6-2, 4-0 AAC) looks to exit the conference in style. The Mustangs will join the Atlantic Coast Conference next season.

Tulane (7-1, 4-0) won last season’s championship game over UCF and defeated Southern California 46-45 in the Cotton Bowl.

Can anyone stop the Green Wave? We believe SMU has the capability to do so.

The Mustangs have scored 189 points and surrendered only 36 through four AAC games. And they’re not the favorites to win the conference.

Tulane (+150 BetMGM) is the current betting choice. And there wasn’t a better story down the stretch of last season.

These teams are not scheduled to meet during the regular season, but the likely matchup in the title game could well be worth the wait.

The value, however, lies with SMU at +170.

The bet: SMU +170 to win the AAC title game.

CONFERENCE FUTURES BET NO. 2: The Pac-12 Conference

Oregon lost 36-33 to Washington in Seattle, but the Ducks are playing like the conference’s best team right now.

The Huskies struggled to beat Arizona State and Stanford, while the Ducks crushed Utah last week.

Oregon finishes its regular-season schedule with three of four games at home, beginning with Cal on Saturday in Eugene, Ore.

Oregon, the College Football Playoff committee’s No. 6 team, sits behind No. 5 Washington because of that Oct. 14 loss. But momentum is running rampant after the Ducks (7-1, 4-1 Pac-12) trounced the Utes 35-6 last weekend in Salt Lake City. Utah had won 18 straight home games.

Although Oregon, ranked No. 3 on the Action Network power rankings behind only Georgia and Michigan, is the betting favorite to take the conference title game, the number (+110 at FanDuel and BetMGM) is a value.

The Ducks should be the betting favorite in the championship game in Las Vegas, so the current plus-money would be a nice price to be carrying on Dec. 2.

The bet: Oregon +110 to win the Pac-12 title game.

CONFERENCE FUTURES BET NO. 3: The Big Ten Conference

This will be short and sweet.

There are two schools that can win the Big Ten title, but only one will play in the conference championship game.

Barring an upset Nov. 11 in Happy Valley against Penn State, Michigan needs only to defeat Ohio State in Ann Arbor, Mich., Nov. 25 to clinch a spot in the title game.

And that championship matchup would likely come against one of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin or Nebraska, teams currently sharing the West Division lead with 3-2 records in the conference.

Expect a line such as Michigan by 28 or so.

Despite distractions from the sign-stealing controversy at Michigan, coach Jim Harbaugh has succeeded in convincing his team to focus its attention to the on-field product.

“I think our depth and the health of the team is pretty high right now,” he said. “Couldn’t ask for much better going into this stretch in November.”

The Wolverines, who have a matchup with Purdue on Saturday, boast plenty of offensive talent to go with a shut-down defense.

Quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Blake Corum are elite. McCarthy, No. 2 in current Heisman Trophy betting (Washington’s Michael Penix is first), passed for a season-high 287 yards and four touchdowns in Michigan’s 49-0 pummeling of in-state rival Michigan State on Oct. 21.

The defense has allowed 47 points through eight games — pure dominance.

The Buckeyes are terrific, but aren’t likely to be favored in Ann Arbor.

Michigan’s number (-105 at FanDuel) will not be so attractive after Nov. 11, assuming a Wolverines victory over Penn State. Grab this virtual even-money bet.

The bet: Michigan -105 to win the Big Ten title game.

–Field Level Media

Sep 30, 2023; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) passes against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio State vs. Penn State: Preview, Prop Pick and Prediction

A game that caters to those who yearn for tough-guy football and an era in which defense actually did win championships is our pick for the game of the week.

Unbeaten Penn State visits Ohio Stadium for a huge Big Ten East Division tilt in a showdown with Ohio State that likely will swing on one or two explosive plays.

Penn State played a schedule that makes it a little difficult to anoint its defense unbeatable to date. The Nittany Lions’ most formidable opponent was Iowa, now ranked No. 24, and Penn State passed that test 31-0.

Coming off a 63-0 pasting of Massachusetts last Saturday, Penn State aims to make a major case for inclusion in the College Football Playoff; after Saturday, only a Nov. 11 home date with No. 2 Michigan stands as a serious impediment prior to a potential Big Ten title matchup (likely against either overmatched Iowa or overmatched Wisconsin).

Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord engineered a dramatic late drive at Notre Dame, winning 17-14 and answering those critical of his talent and leadership.

The Buckeyes crushed Purdue 41-7 last Saturday as McCord threw for 276 yards and three touchdowns.

Can betting value be found in the total, or is this slugfest worth a wager on the underdog?

We have news, trends and quotes — along with our game prediction.

–Kickoff: noon, ET
–Television: FOX
–Location: Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio.
–Point Spread, Total: Ohio State -4.5, Total 45.5 (per BetMGM as of Wednesday).

THE NEWS
The prideful Penn State defense appears to have the talent to shut down an opponent and could be helped by key injuries impacting Ohio State’s offense.

Rabid backers of either side should probably keep their money on the sideline until the availability report is released by the Buckeyes a few hours prior to kickoff.

The status of running backs TreVeyon Henderson, Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams, along with standout receiver Emeka Egbuka, is key information that could swing support.

Ohio State coach Ryan Day wasn’t about to help the sports-betting community when asked Tuesday about his quartet of injured players.

“I’m not going to get into all those guys, but hopefully we’ll have those guys back for Saturday,” Day said.

Henderson has missed the past two games. Williams sat against Purdue and Trayanum was injured late in the first quarter against the Boilermakers.

“You do have to get creative … ultimately nobody cares (about the injuries),” Day said.

While Egbuka sat out the Purdue game and is certainly an important piece of the Buckeyes’ offensive machine, the nation’s best NFL receiver prospect, Marvin Harrison Jr., is set to cause Penn State all kinds of problems.

QUICK PICK
This matchup has the makings of a classic grind, the kind of game in which big plays decide the winner.

Harrison Jr., who hauled in six throws for 105 yards and a score in Ohio State’s rout of Purdue, will find plenty of company within a Penn State defensive scheme designed to remove him from the equation.

The Nittany Lions rank first in the nation in pass defense (121.2 yards per game) and total yards (193.7) and second in points (8.0) and rushing yards allowed (72.5).

The banged-up Buckeyes rushing attack will be challenged, too, as Penn State has held opponents under 100 rushing yards in five consecutive games.

Freshman quarterback Drew Allar, who has been a highly functional steward for the Nittany Lions’ offense (12 touchdown passes with no interceptions on 181 attempts), faces by far his biggest test.

According to Action Network numbers, Ohio State ranks fifth in Passing Success Rate Allowed but 64th in passing explosiveness allowed. That means Allar, the king of checkdowns this season against inferior opponents, will need to take a downfield chance or two.

This is his Kyle McCord-Notre Dame moment – a test that McCord passed in leading that last-gasp drive against the Irish.

The Penn State rush defense allows only 2.1 yards per carry, so McCord will again have to make a few plays himself.

The visitors figure to do just enough on offense to keep this within a field goal, and a splash play from Allard would just about assure a Penn State cover.

The pick: Ohio State 24, Penn State 21.

THEY SAID IT
“I feel like we’ve definitely been battle-tested; we’ve played some really good opponents. Offensively, we’ve gotten better each week, gotten more consistent each week, and we just need to keep building on that. We can’t change our routine based on the opponent.”

–Penn State freshman quarterback Drew Allar.

–Field Level Media

Sep 5, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Geoff Collins reacts after a call during the game against the Clemson Tigers during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Hot seat? Fire building for these 5 CFB coaches

Nebraska’s firing of Scott Frost serves as a testament to the short leash for Power 5 head coaches.

Cutthroat? Yeah, that applies.

The Cornhuskers, miserable in one-score games since Frost took over, fired a native son who quarterbacked the program to its last national championship 25 years ago, and did so less than a month before his $15 million buyout halved.

Early-season divorces may become the new trend. Nebraska’s decision to move on from Frost was only a season after USC split with Clay Helton following Week 2, a decision made by a brass seeking a running start in pursuit of then-Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley.

Here are five coaches who are approaching win-or-walking papers territory:

–Neal Brown, West Virginia

Brown replaced a veritable legend in Larry Blakeney at Troy and coached the Trojans to unprecedented heights with three straight double-digit-win seasons and bowl game wins.

Stabilizing the Mountaineers after the turbulent tenure of Dana Holgorsen at West Virginia has proven more challenging. The Mountaineers have yet to win more than six games in any of Brown’s first three full seasons, and their only winning mark came in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

A West Virginia program that staked its reputation on explosive offenses for the better part of two decades stagnated on that side of the ball in Brown’s first three years, but in two losses to start 2022, the Mountaineers are struggling defensively.

A week after surrendering 55 points to Kansas, a loss to Towson in Week 3 would be curtains for Brown in Morgantown.

–Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech

Deviating from the triple-option offense after Paul Johnson’s 2018 retirement has hardly gone as planned for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have averaged 16.7, 23.9 and 24 points per game in Geoff Collins’ three seasons as head coach, ranking Georgia Tech consistently in the bottom-third of Power 5 offenses.

The Yellow Jackets have put up 45 total points through the first two games of 2022, and that number may prove skewed as the season progresses with Georgia Tech registering 35 against FCS opponent Western Carolina.

Each of Collins’ first three teams have finished with three wins to match the worst record of Johnson’s entire tenure. A fourth straight season of such futility is grounds for a shake-up.

–Herm Edwards, Arizona State

He’s still playing to win the game. But you might not know it.

Winning solves a lot of problems, but Arizona State simply has not won in big spots enough while under the pall of an NCAA investigation.

Allegations of recruiting violations preceded an exodus of assistant coaches in Edwards’ charge, and the Sun Devils underwent significant roster changes with transfer-portal departures. The turnover and investigation add an extra layer of malaise to a tenure that has seen Arizona State reach three bowl games under Edwards, but fail to reach a Pac-12 Championship Game in a down period for the conference.

Arizona State’s lopsided Week 2 loss at Oklahoma State reflected the Sun Devils’ struggles in marquee matchups under Edwards — and they have three such games on the upcoming slate with Utah, USC and Washington to start conference play.

–Bryan Harsin, Auburn

Perhaps an “Orange Out” upset of Penn State on Saturday night can spare a fella, but the Nittany Lions aren’t exactly championship material at the moment.

There was a time not long ago when suggesting a coach in just his second season occupied a hot seat may have seemed absurd, barring major malfeasance.

If it’s not enough to be little brother to the dynastic Alabama program, there’s also the notion that boosters and the athletic department have immediate national championship aspirations. That means patience among fans will drop proportionally to the rise in coaches’ paychecks.

Look no further than Florida State, which Auburn played for the 2013 season’s national title, and its split from Willie Taggart in 2019 after just 21 games.

For Harsin at Auburn, the hire looked like an odd fit from the outset. Harsin won consistently at his alma mater, Boise State, but outside of a tumultuous two years as an offensive coordinator at Texas and one season as head coach at Arkansas State, worked exclusively in the West.

A disastrous finish to 2021 with five straight losses and a less-than-inspiring 2-0 start to 2022, including a scraped-out 24-16 defeat of San Jose State, puts the heat on Harsin early. Auburn is seemingly losing ground to SEC counterparts Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mississippi State while still playing catch-up to Alabama and Georgia.

–Scott Satterfield, Louisville

Scott Satterfield’s tenure at alma mater Appalachian State elevated the program from FCS powerhouse to Top 25-caliber FBS program. His stint at Louisville has come nowhere near the same level of success, with the Cardinals enduring sub-.500 finishes after Satterfield’s 8-5 debut in 2019.

Beating UCF in Week 2 offers some reprieve, but a 31-7 loss at Syracuse in the opener set an ominous tone for Louisville’s season. The fact that the Cardinals continuing to scratch for a middling record while in-state rival Kentucky is on a meteoric ascent does Satterfield little favor — particularly with the Wildcats looming as the final opponent of this regular season.

–By Kyle Kensing, Field Level Media