Feb 1, 2025; Orlando, FL, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws the ball during NFC Practice for the Pro Bowl Games at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Jared Goff, NFC defeat AFC to win Pro Bowl Games

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff tossed three touchdowns and two defenders scored on interception returns Sunday as the NFC won the flag football game 56-50 and the overall competition 76-63 at the 2025 Pro Bowl Games in Orlando, Fla.

Goff completed 10 of 11 passes for 126 yards, while the Arizona Cardinals’ Budda Baker and Minnesota Vikings’ Byron Murphy each returned interceptions for touchdowns in the second half to end any AFC comeback chances. Goff was named the game’s offensive MVP and Murphy was announced as defensive MVP.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield threw three touchdowns of his own, and New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers scored two TDs on five receptions.

The AFC was paced by the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Russell Wilson, who tossed four touchdown passes in defeat.

Coming into the day, the NFC had a 14-7 lead on the overall scoreboard, winning Thursday’s skills events competition.

The NFC increased its advantage and grabbed a 13-6 lead at the flag football game through one quarter of play. Goff threw touchdown passes to San Francisco 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk and Nabers.

Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow answered with a scoring toss to Bengals teammate Ja’Marr Chase, but Burrow was also picked off by the Lions’ Brian Branch to close the first quarter.

Chase, the league’s leader in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns, finished with five catches for 101 yards and three touchdowns.

The “punt perfect” event was held at the quarter break, and Jacksonville’s Logan Cooke won in a sudden death overtime, making his kick and watching the Lions’ Jack Fox’s effort bounce out. That gave the AFC a 3-0 win in that portion of the event, cutting the overall deficit to 27-16.

The NFC responded quickly, as Goff found Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba on a short route, and Smith-Njigba split the defense to score from 46 yards out.

The AFC looked in danger of falling even further behind before Marlon Humphrey of the Baltimore Ravens intercepted Minnesota’s Sam Darnold. That set up Wilson finding the Jaguars’ Brian Thomas for a touchdown, making the flag football score 19-12.

Darnold answered with a scoring pass to Vikings teammate Justin Jefferson.

At halftime, it was revealed the AFC won the “Madden NFL Head-to-Head” challenge, prevailing in a game of Madden 2025. Thomas and the Los Angeles Chargers’ Derwin James defeated Jefferson and the Dallas Cowboys’ Micah Parsons to earn the AFC three more points.

Halftime also featured an obstacle course relay, “The Great Football Race,” in which the NFC teammates prevailed to score three points and build their overall lead to 42-25.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye entered the game in the third quarter and immediately introduced some chaos, surrendering a pick-6 to Baker before tossing two quick touchdowns (to Chase and Thomas) to put the flag football score at 31-26.

Mayfield answered with a touchdown pass to 49ers tight end George Kittle to close out the quarter, and then the NFC added three more points by winning the tug of war competition to build a 58-39 lead going into the fourth.

Maye surrendered another pick-6 to Murphy on the first play of the fourth, and the teams traded touchdowns most of the rest of the way.

–Field Level Media

Jan 26, 2025; Kansas City, MO, USA; Recording artist Taylor Swift  and Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) react after the AFC Championship game against the Buffalo Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Report: Chiefs-Bills sets AFC title game viewership record

The Kansas City Chiefs’ 32-29 win Sunday over the Buffalo Bills was the most-watched AFC Championship game in history with 57.4 million viewers on CBS, according to the Sports Business Journal.

That eclipsed the 55.5 million set the previous year for the Chiefs’ 17-10 victory against the Baltimore Ravens.

It was the highest number for any AFC or NFC title game since the New York Giants’ 20-17 triumph against the San Francisco 49ers had an audience of 57.6 million on Jan. 22, 2012.

Sunday’s NFC Championship on FOX, played in the earlier broadcast slot, averaged 44.2 million viewers to see the Philadelphia Eagles roll to a 55-23 win over the Washington Commanders.

That was the lowest number for an NFC title game since 2019.

In addition to the later time slot, potential reasons for the much higher audience for Chiefs-Bills includes the game being closer and featuring two high-profile quarterbacks — the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen — as well as the presence at the game of pop star Taylor Swift, the girlfriend of Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce.

–Field Level Media

Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates with quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after Mahomes’ touchdown against the Houston Texans during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

NFL Championship Sunday capsules

Four teams are left in the race for the Lombardi.

Two-time defending champion Kansas City, the top seed in the AFC, welcomes an opponent the Chiefs know all too well — and not just because of a 30-21 loss at Buffalo on Nov. 17.

This is the fourth postseason meeting in five years between the Bills and Chiefs, with marquee quarterbacks front and center.

A new name in lights, rookie Jayden Daniels, orchestrated a landslide upset of the NFC favorite and No. 1-seeded Detroit Lions last week to set up the Washington Commanders for a third game in three months against East division rival Philadelphia.

The Eagles are crossing their fingers quarterback Jalen Hurts can be ready after a knee injury slowed him down in a 28-22 home win over the Los Angeles Rams in the divisional playoffs. Philadelphia’s plan still centers around the man lined up behind Hurts — running back Saquon Barkley — who delivered the goods in both games with Washington in the regular season.

More details and all the dirt on Sunday’s AFC Championship and NFC Championship in the capsules below:

–NFC Championship Game
No. 6 Washington Commanders (14-5) at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, FOX/FOX Deportes

The NFC title game in Philadelphia completes a trilogy between rivals and the fifth time teams from the same division square off in the conference championship. This is Washington’s first championship game appearance since 1991, when the franchise won its last Super Bowl.

Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has 52 wins in his first four seasons. Only George Seifert, who inherited a gunpowder-infused roster in San Francisco, has more victories (57). Joe Gibbs and Mike Tomlin are the only head coaches with two Super Bowl appearances in their first four seasons. Sirianni would join them with a win over Washington on Sunday.

Previously this season, the Eagles defeated the Commanders, 26-18, on Nov. 14 as Barkley rushed for 146 yards, including two rushing touchdowns in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter to seal the win. In Week 16, Washington overcame a 13-point fourth quarter deficit to defeat Philadelphia, 36-33, as Daniels set a career high with five TD passes. He threw the game-winning TD with six seconds left after Eagles backup Kenny Pickett’s pass to likely seal the win was dropped by Barkley.

Philadelphia ranked No. 1 in total defense in 2024 and intercepted Daniels three times in two games. At the heart of the defense, second-year defensive tackle Jalen Carter took over late in last week’s win over the Rams with a key sack and forced fumble. Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury threw a few bouquets at Carter this week, calling him “maybe the best I’ve ever seen” at the position. The Eagles have more firepower behind Carter with Defensive Player of the Year candidate Zack Baun and all-rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. Mitchell’s shoulder injury forced him out of last week’s game.

Barkley has the third-most rushing yards (2,329) and is fourth in total yards (2,638) in the NFL’s single-season record books. Broncos running back Terrell Davis set the record in 1998.

The game is a second homecoming for Commanders tight end Zach Ertz, who is second in Eagles franchise history to Hall of Famer Harold Carmichael with 639 receptions. Ertz caught a TD pass for visiting Washington when the teams played in November.

–AFC Championship Game
No. 2 Buffalo Bills (15-4) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+

Buffalo beat the Chiefs after Kansas City’s 9-0 start to the regular season, taking a 30-21 victory to push the Bills’ regular-season winning streak over the Chiefs to four games. But Kansas City rattled off six consecutive wins to earn the No. 1 seed and first-round bye in the AFC. The Chiefs have three consecutive victories over the Bills in the playoffs — the 2020 AFC Championship Game and 2021 and 2023 AFC divisional wins.

Quarterback Josh Allen is tightening the margins for opponents by taking care of the ball. Buffalo sports a plus-27 turnover margin and is the first team in NFL history with zero turnovers in four consecutive playoff games. Including the postseason, the Bills lead the NFL with 35 takeaways and a league-low eight turnovers in 19 total games. No team has ever reached the Super Bowl with 10 or fewer turnovers.

Counterpart Patrick Mahomes knows a thing or two about coming out on top in close games. Turnovers? It’s been eight games — since Week 12 of the regular season — without losing the ball for Kansas City, as the Chiefs peak on schedule. The Chiefs have won eight playoff games in a row, the third-longest such streak all-time (2001-2005 New England Patriots – 10 consecutive wins; 1961-67 Green Bay Packers – nine) and since Week 12.

Stopping the run will be a vital element to winning Sunday, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo noted this week. He pointed to James Cook’s 16 rushing touchdowns and Allen’s game-sealing rumble that beat Kansas City earlier this season.

Buffalo allowed 176 yards rushing to the Ravens, who gained 416 total yards but had three critical turnovers.

Bills safety Taylor Rapp was ruled out with a hip injury on Friday. It’s likely rookie Cole Bishop will be in the starting 11 against Mahomes on Sunday night.

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is two TD receptions shy of tying the all-time playoff record held by Jerry Rice (22). Kelce hauled in a pair of Mahomes TD passes in the Chiefs’ playoff win at Buffalo last year. He added a touchdown reception as part of a seven-catch, 117-yard game last week to beat the Houston Texans.

Mahomes and Andy Reid have the Chiefs in the AFC Championship for the eighth consecutive season. Mahomes’ 16 playoff wins are second among all starting quarterbacks, he owns the second-highest postseason passer rating (105.6, minimum 150 attempts), fifth-most postseason touchdown passes (42) and eighth-most postseason passing yards (5,312) in NFL playoff history.

Only three teams have reached the Super Bowl three consecutive seasons: the 1990-93 Bills (four consecutive), 1971-73 Miami Dolphins (three) and 2016-18 Patriots (three).

–Field Level Media

Jan 18, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Washington Commanders guard Sam Cosmi (76) received medical on the field after an injury during play against Detroit Lions during the second quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images

Commanders G Sam Cosmi (torn ACL) done for playoffs

The Washington Commanders will be without starting right guard Sam Cosmi for the rest of the playoffs.

Cosmi suffered a torn ACL in Washington’s NFC divisional-round win over the top-seeded Detroit Lions on Saturday night. An MRI on Sunday confirmed the severity of the injury.

The injury occurred about five minutes into the second quarter when Detroit defender Za’Darius Smith inadvertently hit the back of Cosmi’s legs, with Cosmi’s right leg pinned under Smith’s body. Cosmi hobbled off the field with trainers.

Cosmi was replaced by veteran backup Trent Scott, who is playing with his fourth team in seven NFL seasons.

Cosmi, 25, was selected by Washington in the second round (51st overall) of the 2021 NFL Draft. He has played in 57 regular-season games (49 starts) for Washington, starting all 17 games and playing 100 percent of the team’s snaps each of the past two seasons.

The Commanders will visit the Philadelphia Eagles — 28-22 winners over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday — for the NFC championship next weekend. The NFC East rivals split two regular-season meetings, with the host Eagles winning 26-18 on Nov. 14, and the host Commanders scoring late for a 36-33 victory on Dec. 22.

–Field Level Media

Dec 30, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) drops back to pass the ball during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Ravens, Lions lead selections for Pro Bowl Games

The Baltimore Ravens placed nine players on the 2025 Pro Bowl Games rosters, announced Thursday by the NFL.

The Detroit Lions also saw seven players picked, one of six teams with at least five players chosen for the event, which culminates Feb. 2 with a flag football game between the AFC and NFC in Orlando.

The Minnesota Vikings (six), Philadelphia Eagles (six), Chiefs (five) and Dallas Cowboys (five) joined the Ravens and Lions atop the list, although one player is notably absent from Kansas City’s entries — quarterback Patrick Mahomes, breaking a string of six consecutive selections for the two-time NFL Most Valuable Player and three-time Super Bowl MVP.

Instead, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills got the nod as the AFC starter, with Jared Goff of the Lions named the starter for the NFC. Of course, both players will hope to miss the Pro Bowl Games in lieu of a run toward the Super Bowl.

Quarterback Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders and tight end Brock Bowers of the Las Vegas Raiders, both standout rookies, were among the Pro Bpwl Games selections.

2025 AFC Pro Bowl Games roster by position
Offense
*Denotes starter

Quarterback:
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills*
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Running back:
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens*
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Fullback:
Patrick Ricard, Baltimore Ravens*

Wide receiver:
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals*
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns*
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

Tight end:
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders*
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Offensive tackle:
Dion Dawkins, Buffalo Bills*
Laremy Tunsil, Houston Texans*
Rashawn Slater, Los Angeles Chargers

Offensive guard:
Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis Colts*
Joe Thuney, Kansas City Chiefs*
Trey Smith, Kansas City Chiefs

Center:
Creed Humphrey, Kansas City Chiefs*
Tyler Linderbaum, Baltimore Ravens

Defense

Defensive end:
Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns*
Trey Hendrickson, Cincinnati Bengals*
Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders

Interior linemen:
Cameron Heyward, Pittsburgh Steelers*
Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs*
Nnamdi Madubuike, Baltimore Ravens

Outside linebacker:
Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos*
T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers*
Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers

Inside/middle linebacker:
Roquan Smith, Baltimore Ravens*
Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis Colts

Cornerback:
Derek Stingley Jr., Houston Texans*
Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos*
Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens
Denzel Ward, Cleveland Browns

Free safety:
Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh Steelers*

Strong safety:
Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens*
Derwin James, Los Angeles Chargers

Special teams

Long snapper:
Ross Matiscik, Jacksonville Jaguars*

Punter:
Logan Cooke, Jacksonville Jaguars*

Placekicker:
Chris Boswell, Pittsburgh Steelers*

Return specialist:
Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos*

Special teamer:
Brenden Schooler, New England Patriots*

2025 NFC Pro Bowl Games roster by position

Quarterback:
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions*
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Running back:
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles*
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Fullback:
Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 49ers

Wide receiver:
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings*
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions*
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

Tight end:
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers*
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

Offensive tackle:
Lane Johnson, Philadelphia Eagles*
Landon Dickerson, Philadelphia Eagles*
Tyler Smith, Dallas Cowboys*
Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta Falcons

Center:
Frank Ragnow, Detroit Lions*
Cam Jurgens, Philadelphia Eagles

Defense

Defensive end:
Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers*
Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys*
Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers

Interior linemen:
Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles*
Dexter Lawrence, New York Giants*
Vita Vea, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Outside linebacker:
Jonathan Greenard, Minnesota Vikings*
Andrew Van Ginkel, Minnesota Vikings*
Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams

Inside/middle linebacker:
Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers*
Zack Baun, Philadelphia Eagles

Cornerback:
Jaylen Johnson, Chicago Bears*
Byron Murphy, Minnesota Vikings*
Jaycee Horn, Carolina Panthers
Devon Witherspoon, Seattle Seahawks

Free safety:
Xavier McKinney, Green Bay Packers*

Strong safety:
Budda Baker, Arizona Cardinals*
Brian Branch, Detroit Lions

Special teams

Long snapper:
Andrew DePaola, Minnesota Vikings*

Punter:
Jack Fox, Detroit Lions*

Placekicker:
Brandon Aubrey, Dallas Cowboys*

Return specialist:
KaVontae Turpin, Dallas Cowboys*

Special teamer:
KhaDarel Hodge, Atlanta Falcons*

–Field Level Media

Feb 4, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; AFC wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) of the Los Angeles Chargers attempts to make a catch during the 2024 Pro Bowl at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Trivia, tug-of-war on tap for Pro Bowl Games

Dodgeball, tug-of-war and a trivia contest are among the events that will make up the 2025 Pro Bowl Skills competition, the NFL announced Thursday.

AFC and NFC players selected for the Pro Bowl will compete in a 7-on-7 flag football game, which has replaced the traditional Pro Bowl game, on Feb. 2 in Orlando, Fla. But the weekend will be filled with a variety of fun and games.

On Jan. 30, the events begin with Passing the Test, which combines passing accuracy with player trivia. The Pro Bowl quarterbacks will try to hit as many targets as they can in 40 seconds. Before that, each will pair with a teammate to try to answer five questions about current players. For each right answer, the quarterback gets an additional 10 seconds to hit targets and score points.

Other contests throughout the weekend include Satisfying Catches, with a receiver, tight end and defensive back from each conference trying to navigate an obstacle course that includes football moves; a Relay Race, in which players take part in a 40-yard relay dash that requires them to hand the football to a teammate; and dodgeball, a three-round tournament with six teams participating, AFC vs. NFC style.

The Great Football Race features six players from each conference going relay-style to finish five challenges, including the sled push. And the Tug-of-War features five players on each side trying to pull the other team into a foam pit. The competition is best-of-three.

–Field Level Media

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) runs the ball in for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Playoff picture: Broncos (AFC), Commanders (NFC) slotted as No. 7 seeds

The Denver Broncos are the No. 7 seed and the final team in the AFC playoff picture entering Week 12 of the regular season.

A stranger to the postseason since last securing a spot in the 2015 season, the Broncos (6-5) are ahead of the Indianapolis Colts (5-6) and Miami Dolphins (4-6) in the conference wild-card race. Denver is effectively two games behind the current No. 6 seed because of a head-to-head loss to the Baltimore Ravens (7-4).

Denver’s most recent postseason appearance came in Super Bowl 50 in 2016, when Peyton Manning — in his final career game — and the Broncos defeated the Carolina Panthers.

Resurgent Washington, led by first-year head coach Dan Quinn, holds the No. 7 seed in the NFC through 11 weeks.

To move up from that spot, the Commanders (7-4) would need to overtake the Green Bay Packers (7-3) and Minnesota Vikings (8-2), who trail NFC North-leading and NFC No. 1 seed Detroit (9-1).

Washington last won a playoff game after the 2005 regular season and has lost four straight postseason games since (following the regular seasons of 2007, 2012, 2015 and 2020), all in the wild-card round.

Current NFL playoff picture:

AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)
4. Houston Texans (7-4)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
7. Denver Broncos (6-5)

NFC
1. Detroit Lions (9-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
3. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
5. Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (7-3)
7. Washington Commanders (7-4)

–Field Level Media

Sep 29, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Washington Commanders defensive tackle Jonathan Allen (93) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Report: Commanders fear season-ending injury for DT Jonathan Allen

The Washington Commanders are awaiting additional news about the condition of defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, fearing he may require season-ending surgery for a pectoral injury, NFL Network reported Monday.

Allen sustained the injury in the Commanders’ 30-23 loss Sunday to the Baltimore Ravens and was ruled out of the game in the fourth quarter.

Per the report, he will get a second opinion before any decisions are made.

Allen, 29, would represent a significant loss for the surprising Commanders (4-2), who lead the NFC East.

A two-time Pro Bowl selection, the 6-foot-3, 300-pound Allen has manned the defensive line since Washington selected him in the first round (17th overall) of the 2017 NFL Draft.

He has avoided a major injury until now, starting at least 15 games in each season since 2018.

In 107 career games (all starts), he has 41 sacks to go with 397 tackles (59 for loss) and 117 quarterback hits. In six games this season, he has 15 tackles and two sacks while playing 62 percent of the snaps on defense.

The Commanders host the Carolina Panthers (1-5) in Week 7.

–Field Level Media

Feb 2, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; The Pro Bowl Games logo on the Camping World Stadium facade. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

NFC defeats AFC 64-59 at Pro Bowl Games

Baker Mayfield’s fourth-quarter touchdown pass to Jahmyr Gibbs turned out to be the winning play as the NFC defeated the AFC 64-59 at the Pro Bowl Games on Sunday in Orlando, Fla.

The NFC had a 12-6 lead after Thursday’s skills competitions and had just enough cushion to withstand C.J. Stroud and the AFC team in flag football to conclude the multi-day event.

After the touchdown by Gibbs, the Detroit Lions running back, both defenses combined to pull out a series of stops. Stroud’s last-ditch pass to Keenan Allen in the end zone was broken up.

Standout Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker won three points for the AFC in “Kick-Tac-Toe,” which saw him and Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey take turns kicking into a tic-tac-toe matrix built between goalposts.

The NFC, however, piled up points with victories in several other competitions, including a “Madden NFL” video game event, “Best Catch” and a tug-of-war.

That allowed the Eli Manning-captained NFC team to withstand the Peyton Manning-coached AFC team in flag football. The AFC outscored the NFC 50-34 in flag football, yet it fell five points short of the overall victory.

Allen, the veteran Los Angeles Chargers receiver, caught nine passes for 90 yards and three touchdowns. He also completed a touchdown pass on a trick play. Stroud of the Houston Texans, Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins and Gardner Minshew of the Indianapolis Colts completed two touchdown passes apiece.

Seattle’s Geno Smith had two touchdowns and three interceptions. Tampa Bay’s Mayfield added two touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit) caught 10 balls for 117 yards and a touchdown, and CeeDee Lamb (Dallas) caught three touchdowns.

–Field Level Media

January 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Green Bay Packers safety Anthony Johnson Jr. (36) and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) shake hands after the 2024 NFC divisional round game at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

NFC Championship Game Betting Primer: 49ers should feel Purdy good

This may sound surprising, but the San Francisco 49ers needed some good fortune to advance last week — at home — against the Green Bay Packers, and the Detroit Lions looked like a seasoned group of veteran playoff performers in turning back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There is no doubting the reasons served up, good and bad, for each winning team. But are the “reasons” actually excuses for the Niners? And aren’t excuses for losers?

We’ll look deeper into the wagering angles for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game and bring forth a game pick and a bonus bet below.

THE HEADLINER

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
When: Sunday.
Time, TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, Fox.
Odds: 49ers -7, total 51.5.

Much was made of the correlation between Brock Purdy’s subpar performance and the rainy weather in San Francisco’s 24-21 comeback win.

The 49ers quarterback had issues with his gloves but also because his safety blanket, Deebo Samuel, was missing due of an injured shoulder.

Samuel might not be fully ready by Sunday, but he’s likely to take the decision right up until game time — and the weather will be vastly improved.

The Lions, meanwhile, must depart Ford Field and try to find their magic in a road game.

Detroit added free agent tight end Zach Ertz, who appears to be insurance for the banged-up rookie star Sam LaPorta (nine catches, 11 targets last week).

If this game is close, Ertz can be used in two-tight end sets to enhance the ground game.

Lions coach Dan Campbell enjoys his role as outlier, swashbuckler, daredevil; 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan finally broke his abysmal streak of failing to overcome late seven-point deficits.

If Purdy can get a grip, literally and figuratively, Niners receivers will test Detroit’s secondary, which sits at the bottom of the NFL in allowing explosive pass plays (20+ yards).

The Lions, however, can find success if they continue to run the ball.

The San Francisco defense is not an elite run-stopping group, despite allowing the third-fewest rush yards per game during the regular season.

According to Action Network numbers, the Niners are 28th in rush EPA (Expected Points Added) since Week 9.

Lions backers are asking for yet another stellar performance from quarterback Jared Goff in a game where he’ll likely need to be a leader rather than a game manager.

Can’t shake these numbers, per Action Network:

Goff indoors is 36-17 against the spread and 26-9 against the spread (ATS) over the past three seasons, and this season (14 games) he has 28 passing TDs to eight interceptions.

Outdoors, however, he’s 9-15-1 ATS in December and January, and this season (five outdoor games) he’s produced five TD passes to four interceptions.

He’s been great to this point, and this title game could come down to key stops and turnovers. But this feels like a return to normal for the 49ers, who are poised to turn up the offense.

Another key stat: The Lions allowed only three teams to rack up 400+ yards during the regular season. They’ve allowed it to happen in both of their playoff games — and those were at home.

The public money has been pouring in on Detroit — the feel-good story enjoyed by couch-bound football fans across the country.

According to Vegas Insider, the Lions were the target of 64 percent of the bets, but the 49ers were collecting 55 percent of the money through Wednesday.

That discrepancy tells us we’re on the right track, so we’ll follow the money.

But, speaking of money, temper your enthusiasm if Samuel does not play. The 49ers are 12-1 straight up and 10-3 against the spread when Deebo starts — and finishes — the game.

The bet: 49ers -7.

BONUS BET

Purdy wasn’t great last week, as we’ve outlined. How bad? Actually, not terrible. He threw for 252 yards, and another 24 puts him over the posted total for this week.

Since we’re committed to the Niners winning on a fast track, we’ll parlay that with the San Francisco kicker, Jake Moody.

The bet: Brock Purdy 275+ passing yards with Jake Moody 6+ kicking points (+125 at BetMGM).

–Field Level Media