NFL Injuries and Sports Betting: Audibles at the Sight of Line Moves

Handicapping football injuries in the NFL, although similar to parsing less abundant injury information in the college game, requires a unique skill set and approach. It’s also an absolute imperative for any serious bettor as NFL lines have become sharper and less elastic in the information age.

Andy Iskoe of the Logical Approach, a handicapping and sports research service, has analyzed such injury information and contextualized it as long as he’s been in the business. The longtime Las Vegas professional handicapper, podcaster and featured columnist for numerous sports betting publications including Gaming Today, examined this topic for Sports Handle recently.

Iskoe says experienced handicappers and bookmakers sometimes assign a point value to each position if a starter is injured, but that in the pro game, as one would expect, most adjustment in terms of the point spread revolve around the quarterback.

 

Read more NFL Injuries and Sports Betting: Audibles at the Sight of Line Moves on SportsHandle.

‘Lookahead Lines’: Big Swing In London’s Jags-Eagles Tilt, Colts Now Spotting Raiders 3 In Oakland

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “lookahead lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung a week or days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 8 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 7 Lines, Before And After: Jaguars-Eagles Goes From Pick’em to Field Goal, Raiders Now FG Home Dogs to Colts; More Patriots Domination at Buffalo to Come?

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (London)

This line had remained steady up until this week when the perception of the Jaguars changed. CG Technology made the line a pick ’em back in May when they released numbers for every NFL game. Last week, the line remained there when the SuperBook released its early lines.

However, after the Jaguars got blown out for the third game in a row at home against the Texans, the number opened at Eagles -3 and that’s where it stayed as of Wednesday. The Eagles blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead last week at home to the Panthers to fall to 3-4 on the season, but the Jaguars present a more worrying picture. Jacksonville’s defense has taken a step back, separate from the struggles at quarterback. Blake Bortles was benched mid-game against Houston in favor of Cody Kessler. Jags coach Doug Marrone is going back to Bortles for the start this week but he’ll be on a short leash again. 

These squads are meeting in London and the fact that the Eagles have moved off a PK to -3 in one week shows that oddsmakers are losing faith in the Jaguars. But Philly is also just 2-5 ATS, so while people are down on the Jaguars, there’s some value with them getting three points in this matchup.

 
 

Read more ‘Lookahead Lines’: Big Swing In London’s Jags-Eagles Tilt, Colts Now Spotting Raiders 3 In Oakland on SportsHandle.

Lookahead Lines: Ravens Become Bigger Favorites Over Browns On Road

The post Lookahead Lines: Ravens Become Bigger Favorites Over Browns On Road appeared first on SportsHandle.

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL “lookahead lines,” to see how current lines are moving in comparison and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 5 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

 

Read more Lookahead Lines: Ravens Become Bigger Favorites Over Browns On Road on SportsHandle.

‘The NFL Handle’: NFL Week 2 Breakdown And Week 1 Reflections, Disappointments

The post ‘The NFL Handle’: NFL Week 2 Breakdown And Week 1 Reflections, Disappointments appeared first on SportsHandle.

On The NFL Handle, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmaking dive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the same from behind the microphone, so they’ll have you prepared for anything.

NFL Week 2, also known as “overreaction” or “adjustments” week, has arrived. In Week 2 we’ll see an AFC Championship rematch with the Patriots -1.5 at the Jaguars, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles -3 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — who just beat the Saints outright in New Orleans as a nearly 10-point dogs — and various other lines of interest. How will the Lions and Bills respond after their respective debacles?

Your comments are welcome at @sports_handle. (Link coming for iTunes listeners). Time codes for the episode follow below.


0:35: Reflections on Week 1, the excitement of the first kickoff and how the sportsbook fared.

1:35: “Automatic” plays — a viable strategy? Not all home dogs have the same bite.

7:17: Miami Dolphins +3 at New York Jets — a line that’s bounced around a bit. What should the line actually be and where might it go?

11:30: Los Angeles Chargers -7 at Buffalo Bills — typically it’s elite teams that open as 9 point favorites on the road. Bills rookie QB Josh Allen will start his first game for Buffalo, who will probably have the backing of the “pros.”

14:52: Detroit Lions +6.5 at San Francisco 49ers — both teams coming off disappointing (or extremely disappointing) performances. Line’s moved based on how bad the Lions looked. Early marriage trouble for Matt Patricia and Detroit.

21:00: Cleveland Browns +9  at New Orleans Saints —The Browns, off to their best start since 2004 (0-0-1), visit the Saints, who at least showed up offensively in their Week 1 defensive faceplant.

23:40: Arizona Cardinals +12.5 at Los Angeles Rams — Just how good are the Rams? So far they’re gobbling all the wagers.

26:53: A few words about environment and atmosphere — with a major hurricane, Florence, set to hit the East Coast.

29:10: New England Patriots -1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars —An AFC Championship rematch.

33:25: New York Giants +3 at Dallas Cowboys — Cowboys are in trouble. Giants are the play.

35:30: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (off the board): Aaron Rodgers, worth about 6 or 7 points, most likely will play.

38:30: Houston Texans -2 at Tennessee Titans — another quarterback injury question hangs over this AFC South contest with Marcus Mariota (elbow) not a lock to suit up.

41:00: Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Pittsburgh Steelers —  Are the Chiefs really good or the Steelers not so good? Highest total on the board in this game (52.5).

42:45: Indianapolis Colts +6 at Washington Redskins — Who’s willing to lay the six points?

42:50: Favorite play of the weekend! Or at least the most interesting and probably the biggest decision of the week. The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles are (just) a 3-point favorite on the road against Tampa Bay? Also looking hard at Arizona and perhaps giving the Raiders a second chance.

48:40: Bonus bookmaking question about Canelo vs. GGG Part II and discussion of “open scoring” in boxing.

Have a profitable Week 2, folks. Follow Perrault on Twitter @sportstalkmatt and Walker @robertusfsports.

Thanks for listening and see you back next week, tell a friend, sign up for our newsletter and also check out our Cover City Podcast, featuring sports bettor Eric Rosenthal.

 

Veteran Oddsmaker Explains ‘Integrity Monitoring’ From Sportsbook Perspective

The post Veteran Oddsmaker Explains ‘Integrity Monitoring’ From Sportsbook Perspective appeared first on SportsHandle.

This is the second of a two-part series seeking to answer, “So What the Heck Is ‘Integrity Monitoring’, Anyway?” (Read Part I here.)

Even before the United States Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in May, the NBA and Major League Baseball began lobbying state legislatures for funds to finance “integrity monitoring” measures. Part of the leagues’ claim is that expanded legal wagering will create new, greater obligations for sports leagues. 

But what exactly is “integrity monitoring,” and how are bookmakers perceiving the leagues’ efforts to garner an “integrity fee?” In the first installment of this series, we spoke to Jennifer Roberts, Associate Director of the International Center for Gaming Regulation, a gaming lawyer and adjunct professor at University of Nevada Las Vegas, who teaches such courses as fundamentals of casino operations management.

Here, to get the behind-the-counter perspective, we spoke to Robert Walker, who heads up sportsbook operations for USBookmaking. Walker’s resume also includes nearly 12 years as the director of race and sportsbook operations for MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, and before that served as the race and sportsbook manager for The Stardust.

 

Read more Veteran Oddsmaker Explains ‘Integrity Monitoring’ From Sportsbook Perspective on SportsHandle.

22 Go Perfect In SuperContest Week 1 As Consensus Picks Roll

The post 22 Go Perfect In SuperContest Week 1 As Consensus Picks Roll appeared first on SportsHandle.

While you may have been sleeping on the East Coast, the Los Angeles Rams let the Oakland Raiders hang around a while before racking up 23 second half points in a 33-13 beatdown. Favored by 4 based on the static SuperContest lines (the line closed around 6), the Rams easily covered after falling behind 13-10 at halftime.

The Rams win gave roughly one-third of the pool a W, according to stats compiled by FantasySuperContest, in a Week 1 in which 22 of the record field of 3,123 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest entries finished a perfect 5-0 and players picked up a average 2.43 points.

Here’s the against-the-spread record (and other records) for the NFL’s Week 1 (referencing non-static lines as in the SuperContest). Then we’ll get to the SuperContest selections and look closer at the results:

  • Favorites vs Underdogs (ATS): 7-8-1
  • Home vs Away (ATS): 9-6-1
  • Over/Under record: 9-7
  • Straight up underdog wins: 4
 

Read the remainder of the post 22 Go Perfect In SuperContest Week 1 As Consensus Picks Roll on SportsHandle.