Preseason Week Four Spreads

As we prepare for the final week of preseason, bettors have their last chance to put some money down on wildly unpredictable games. But remember, even the oddsmakers don’t have great reads on the preseason so if you’re in tune with a specific team, you might be able to find more value in the preseason. Check out our guide to betting on the preseason for more helpful tips. Here are the spreads:

 

Indianapolis COLTS    
34
Cincinnati BENGALS   – 2½
Miami DOLPHINS    
36
Atlanta FALCONS   – 3
New York JETS   – 2
36½
Philadelphia EAGLES    
Cleveland BROWNS    
35½
Detroit LIONS   – 2½
New England PATRIOTS    
38½
New York GIANTS   – 2½
Washington REDSKINS    
36
Baltimore RAVENS   – 4½
Carolina PANTHERS    
36½
Pittsburgh STEELERS   – 2½
Jacksonville JAGUARS    
36
Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS   – 1½
Buffalo BILLS    
37
Chicago BEARS   – 3
Minnesota VIKINGS    
36
Tennessee TITANS   – 1
Los Angeles RAMS    
38
New Orleans SAINTS   – 4
Dallas COWBOYS    
34
Houston TEXANS   – 4
Green Bay PACKERS    
38½
Kansas City CHIEFS   – 4
Denver BRONCOS    
35½
Arizona CARDINALS   – 3
Los Angeles CHARGERS    
35½
San Francisco 49ERS   – 3½
Oakland RAIDERS    
35
Seattle SEAHAWKS   – 3

Data provided by Westgate Superbook

NFC North: Preseason Grades and Analysis

CHICAGO BEARS

Key Acquisitions: WR Allen Robinson, TE Trey Burton, WR Taylor Gabriel, LB Roquan Smith, OLB Aaron Lynch, C/G James Daniels, WR Anthony Miller, QB Chase Daniel, K Cody Parkey

Key Losses: OG Josh Sitton, LB Jerrell Freeman, WR Kendall Wright, DT Mitch Unrein, QB Mike Glennon, OLB Pernell McPhee, OLB Willie Young, OLB Lamarr Houston, LB Christian Jones, OG Tom Compton, WR Dontrelle Inman

Chicago had an awfully busy offseason, driven by the goal of getting 2017 first-rounder Mitchell Trubisky the infrastructure he needs to succeed. First came the hiring of former Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy as head coach –he’ll bring a system filled with simple reads and misdirection to generate easy completions.

Then came the spending.

The Bears guaranteed an NFL-high $102.8 million to 16 players, with more than half that going to offensive weapons Allen Robinson ($25.2 million), Trey Burton ($22 million) and Taylor Gabriel ($14 million). The money was a little staggering, especially for the unproven Burton and Gabriel, but the trio immediately upgrades what was one of the league’s worst skill groups in 2017. The draft also brought Trubisky some help, with James Daniels likely to replace Josh Sitton at left guard and Anthony Miller capable of claiming a role.

The defense was kept largely intact with the re-signing of four cornerbacks, led by Kyle Fuller (four years, $56 million) and Prince Amukamara (three years, $27 million). First-rounder Roquan Smith will slot in immediately in the middle of Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense, and Aaron Lynch — who played for Fangio as a rookie with the 49ers in 2014 — could be a bargain on a one-year deal for $4 million as a replacement for Pernell McPhee and Willie Young.

Our Take: The expenses were a bit lavish, but ponying up to help a young QB is more than understandable. — B+

 

DETROIT LIONS

Key Acquisitions: LB Devon Kennard, CB DeShawn Shead, C/G Frank Ragnow, RB LeGarrette Blount, RB Kerryon Johnson, TE Luke Willson, TE Levine Toilolo, LB Christian Jones, LB Jonathan Freeny, C Wesley Johnson, DT Sylvester Williams, OG Kenny Wiggins, QB Matt Cassel

Key Losses: TE Eric Ebron, TE Darren Fells, DT Haloti Ngata, LB Tahir Whitehead, C Travis Swanson, DT Akeem Spence, CB DJ Hayden, OT Greg Robinson, LB Paul Worrilow, S Don Carey

In his second year on the job, GM Bob Quinn dismissed Jim Caldwell and brought in former New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as head coach before churning the roster extensively. Detroit added 15 veterans, including 10 on one-year deals and four more on two-year pacts.

The major changes on offense came with an apparent focus on running the ball more effectively, as bruising backs LeGarrette Blount (free agent) and Kerryon Johnson (draft) will line up behind a line featuring first-rounder Frank Ragnow, and 2017 free agent signees T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner. Tight ends Darren Fells and Eric Ebron were replaced by Luke Willson and Levine Toilolo, neither of whom has caught more than 20 passes in a season since 2014.

Defensively, the Lions signed multiple linebackers, including Devon Kennard, who will set a powerful edge against the run, a core principle of Patricia’s Patriots’ units. Those Pats defenses didn’t often prioritize dynamic-edge pass-rushers, which is worth watching in regard to Ezekiel Ansah’s future after he was franchise tagged. The Lions added little else on the edge this offseason, leaving mostly role players around Ansah. Detroit did keep its secondary intact,  re-signing Tavon Wilson and Nevin Lawson.

Our Take: On the edge of the playoff race last year, the Lions didn’t seem to get significantly better, as their changes feel more like a shuffling the deck than making meaningful upgrades. — B-

 

GREEN BAY PACKERS

Key Acquisitions: TE Jimmy Graham, DE/DT Muhammad Wilkerson, CB Tramon Williams, QB DeShone Kizer, TE Marcedes Lewis, CB Jaire Alexander, CB Josh Jackson, OT Byron Bell, P JK Scott

Key Losses: WR Jordy Nelson, S Morgan Burnett, TE Richard Rodgers, OG Jahri Evans, CB Damarious Randall, WR Jeff Janis

By the standards of Ted Thompson — who transitioned from GM to a senior advisor — the Packers’ offseason was downright electric under new GM Brian Gutekunst, who dipped his toe into free agency and moved up and down the board on draft night.

The release of longtime Aaron Rodgers confidante Jordy Nelson and the signing of Jimmy Graham feels like a wash. Both players are aging and would be best off playing with Rodgers, but Graham’s schematic impact might bring the dimensions that Martellus Bennett was supposed to bring last year. There were few other offensive changes, other than signing Marcedes Lewis and drafting a trio of later-round wideouts.

Defensively, the Packers turned over a secondary that has struggled despite heavy investments in recent years. Morgan Burnett and Damarious Randall are gone, while Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson arrived via the draft, and Tramon Williams and Davon House return. The group must improve for new coordinator Mike Pettine’s scheme to function. Muhammad Wilkerson could be one of the offseason’s best bargains (one year, $5 million) if motivated, but the front seven still lacks pass-rush pop as Clay Matthews, 32, ages.

Gutekunst deserves credit for extracting a 2019 first-round pick from New Orleans in a trade down, and DeShone Kizer isn’t a bad bet as a Rodgers’ insurance policy.

Our Take: Another pass-rusher would have been nice, but Gutekunst otherwise managed quite well in his first year at the helm. — B

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Key Acquisitions: QB Kirk Cousins, DT Sheldon Richardson, WR Kendall Wright, OG Tom Compton, QB Trevor Siemian, DT David Parry, CB Mike Hughes, OT Brian O’Neill, K Daniel Carlson

Key Losses: QB Case Keenum, QB Sam Bradford, QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Jerick McKinnon, DT Tom Johnson, DT Shamar Stephen, WR Jarius Wright, LB Emmanuel Lamur, CB Tramaine Brock

Nineteen of 22 starters return to a team that reached the NFC Championship, but those who left were among the NFL’s most impactful. Most notably, the Vikings’ took major leaps of faith by letting THREE quarterback incumbents — including breakout starter Case Keenum — walk in free agency; and then giving Kirk Cousins what was, at the time, a record $84 million guaranteed. The move carries risk, but Minnesota deserves credit for chasing the best quarterback available in an effort to maximize its Super Bowl window.

The other major offensive change was at coordinator, where ex-Philadelphia quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo replaces Pat Shurmur, whose system was a perfect fit for Keenum. DeFilippo and Cousins might require more time to create that sort of chemistry, but an excellent set of weapons sure helps, and Kendall Wright was a nice bargain signing to join Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs.

A few rotational defensive pieces departed, and the dynamic Sheldon Richardson, whose one-year, $8 million deal was one of the best buys in free agency, replaces 3-technique tackles Tom Johnson and Shamar Stephen. The Vikings also extended linebacker Eric Kendricks, who was the first of a few key youngsters (along with Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter and Anthony Barr) nearing the end of their rookie deals.

Our Take: Minnesota likely raised both its floor and its ceiling by adding Cousins and Richardson, an impressive feat for a 13-3 team. — A

A Guide to Betting on the Preseason

Tired of betting on baseball and bummed out that the World Cup is coming to an end? Don’t fret, because the NFL preseason gets underway in exactly three weeks. And yes, betting on the preseason is a thing.
A big thing.
In fact, according to US Bookmaking sportsbook director Robert Walker, sportsbooks take as many bets on preseason NFL games as they do on most August regular-season Major League Baseball contests.
“I think it just speaks to how popular the NFL is,” said Walker, who added that the simplicity of the preseason schedule also makes it easier to bet when compared to the daily grind of Major League Baseball. “People love football, and it’s a long baseball season. I think by July and certainly by August they’re ready for football season.”
With that in mind, here are our rules for betting on the NFL preseason…
1. Don’t bet on preseason NFL games. If the 2016 Browns and 2008 Lions could go 4-0 in preseason before going 0-16, it’s a sign for smart money to stay away. But, if you absolutely can’t resist, rules two through nine can help you navigate these murky waters.
2. Don’t overthink the point spread. The winner quite frequently covers the spread because oddsmakers usually set low numbers for games that are largely unpredictable. In the first week of last year’s preseason, no team was favored by more than four points but half of those games were decided by double-digit margins.
3. Consider the coaches. Some are more motivated than others to put together strong team performances, while others are more concerned with evaluation during this time. Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh and Mike Zimmer don’t mess around in the preseason, while Mike Tomlin, Jason Garrett and Doug Marrone probably won’t go out of their way to earn a W. The problem is the oddsmakers are also very much aware of this, but it’s at least worth considering when you’re curious about a particular line.
“A lot of new coaches want to set a tone of winning in the locker room,” Walker said. “Or at least that’s how you handicap it. You listen to what they say, and it means more to some coaches than to others.”
4. Be on the ball. In the preseason it’s more important than ever to try to be a sharp. With less on the line, coaches are liable to let more cats out of the bag by elaborating on strategy and predicting playing time for starters. If you stay on top of what’s being said in the media in the lead-up to preseason games, you’ll have a chance to get an edge over the rest of the betting public and maybe even the oddsmakers.
“There are people who can ascertain information quicker than us,” Walker admitted. “The one thing about NFL football is the information is so available now, as opposed to 20 years ago.”
5. Don’t fall for lower-than-expected totals. Some totals will just look oddly low, even with the backup offense on the field most of the game. After all, backup defenders will be out there, too, right? But offenses are usually playing catch-up to a larger extent in August, which is why your average preseason game contains about five fewer points than your average regular-season affair.
6. Throw preconceived notions out the window. The Browns went 4-0 last preseason, outscoring their opponents 68-29. The Patriots went 1-3.
7. Consider betting half or quarter lines. That’ll make it easier to avoid bad beats stemming from the actions of third-stringers in second-half garbage time. This pertains particularly to bets on favorites.
As Walker notes, “You’ve got guys deciding the point spread who aren’t going to make the team.” Try to avoid that.
8. Consider depth, or lack thereof. You feel particularly well about a team’s backup quarterback or reserve pass-rushers? And you’re sure those players are going to get extensive playing time based on what’s being said in the media? Trust yourself and roll the dice there. But remember, you’re still basically shooting craps.
9. Have fun. Walker notes that while a huge number of bettors wager on preseason games, not a lot of money is spent on those bets. The limits are much lower because of the lack of predictability, which is also why you rarely see anyone attempt to place a big-money bet on an NFL game in August.
“At the end of the day you don’t really know if the team is trying to win the game,” said Walker, who ran the MGM Grand Mirage Race and Sports Book for 12 years. “So as long as I’ve been doing this nobody’s come up and asked to bet $50,000 on a preseason game, and if they did I’d probably call security.”
With less on the line, it might be easier to relax and have some fun with your bet.
“If I bet $10 on it then it makes it that much more enjoyable to watch,” said Walker. “I’m not actually worried. To me it’s like going to the movies. I’m going to have a good time and I’ve got a 50/50 chance of doubling my money.”
“It’s more fun to watch a game with $10 on it than with zero on it.