May 30, 2024; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands off to running back Saquon Barkley (26) during practice at NovaCare Complex. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

MNF Week 2: Falcons-Eagles Preview, Props, Prediction

The Atlanta Falcons will be hoping for a dramatic turnaround from their Week 1 debacle with a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Philadelphia has had Atlanta’s number in recent years, winning four of the last five against the Falcons.

But new Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has a winning record against the Eagles (6-5). Cousins has struggled on “Monday Night Football” with a record of 3-10. On the other hand, Jalen Hurts is 4-4 on MNF, including a 24-7 win over Cousins when he was with the Vikings (Week 2, 2022).

Odds and Trends
Philadelphia opened as just a 4.5-point home favorite despite their strong performance in Week 1 vs. the Packers. But it didn’t take long for the line to move. Bettors can still find the Eagles at -5.5, while Atlanta’s supporters can find the Eagles at +6.5.

The Eagles and Falcons last met in Week 1 of the 2021 season, a game Philadelphia won 32-6. But Hurts and Cousins last faced off in 2023 when Cousins was with the Vikings in Week 2 (Thursday Night Football). Cousins threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns, but Hurts got the win 34-28.

Given how games unfolded Week 1, it comes as no surprise that the public is getting behind Philly. At BetMGM, 82 percent of the point spread tickets, and 88 percent of the money is on the Eagles.

But, according to an industry average, 47 percent of spread tickets are on Philadelphia and 53 percent on Atlanta. Moneyline bets heavily favor the Eagles, with 92 percent of the handle and 95 percent of tickets.

However, bettors are relatively split regarding the total: 56 percent of the money and 48 percent of tickets on the OVER (44 percent and 52 percent on the UNDER).

Recent history has favored the home team on MNF, 59-43, over the last five years. However, betting on the visiting team wasn’t a bad idea; they went 53-45-4 ATS. Favorites have gone 67-37 SU and 45-55-4 ATS since 2018.

Prop Picks
–Saquon Barkley, 2+ Touchdowns, +270 at FanDuel: He had three against the Packers in Week 1, two rushing and one receiving. It seemed like new OC Kellen Moore will make the most of his running back (while he’s healthy), especially near the goal line. There is no value in betting on his anytime odds, but it would not be shocking to see him get two vs. the Falcons.

–Jalen Hurts, O/U 39.5 Yards Rushing, -113/-113 at FanDuel: Running the ball is part of the reason Hurts is such a dangerous QB. But Kellen Moore seemed reluctant to call designed runs for Hurts in Week 1. On several of his 13 carries did not go for much since he looked for someone to throw to as long as he could.
With Barkley available to do the dirty work in the run game, expect less from Hurts. Take the UNDER.

Key Stats
Cousins is 12-20 in primetime games and 3-10 on MNF. However, while his win-loss record is not good, he has been. He ranks 12th in passer rating out of the 64 quarterbacks that have attempted 500+ passes in primetime games.

The News
Expectations were high for the Atlanta Falcons coming into the season. With skill position players like Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London, many viewed them as a team that needed competent quarterback play to succeed.

Enter Kirk Cousins.

While his teams have not seen much postseason success, his ability to get the ball moving on offense is undeniable, especially in the passing game. He played six seasons with the Vikings, starting 15+ in his first five. In those five, he threw for 4,000+ yards in four.

His best season may have been his first. He made history by becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 70 percent of his passes for 30 touchdowns and 4,000+ yards with ten interceptions (or fewer).

Fans in Atlanta probably hoped that would be the guy they’d see in Week 1. The offense sputtered as Cousins completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked twice and threw two interceptions as the Falcons lost to the Steelers 18-10.

While it is no consolation, there were several mitigating factors. Week 1 was his first game back after missing the second half of the 2023 season with a torn Achilles. It was his first game on a new team, in a new offense with a new offensive coordinator, a new center, and new skill position players.

Thanks to his recovery, he did not have enough time to develop the level of familiarity necessary to play well on Sunday. But there is a bright side for Falcons fans — Cousins and the offense can only get better.

Can they improve enough to be competitive with the Eagles tonight?

Injury Report
Both teams have ruled out players for Monday night’s tilt. Hurts will be without his No. 1 wide receiver, A.J Brown (hamstring). Atlanta will not have cornerback Antonio Hamilton Sr. (groin) and linebacker Nate Landman (calf, quadriceps). Eagles receiver Johnny Wilson is listed as questionable.

Prediction
If Cousins and the Atlanta offense were clicking on all cylinders, this could be a competitive game. However, growing pains are expected, which should keep expectations low for the Falcons’ offense.

Without the offense giving them a break, the defense will get worn out after getting a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley. Hurts will miss Brown, but the Eagles have plenty of talented weapons at his disposal.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Falcons 13

–Field Level Media

Baltimore Ravens Jadeveon Clowney linebacker (24) pressures Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in the second quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

AFC Divisional Playoffs: C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes and inspired road dogs

OK, OK, C.J. Stroud, we get it. You’re not a rookie anymore.

Leading the Houston Texans to a rout of the Cleveland Browns, Stroud bucked all the rookie-QB-in-the-playoffs trends, and did so convincingly.

And this showing came the NFL’s league-leading defense in the regular season. Cleveland allowed a league-best 270 yards per game — almost 20 yards fewer than the next-best team.

Is that enough to forge a winning play in this matchup with the AFC No. 1 seed in Baltimore?

Read on for our main AFC play and a bonus bet along with a player prop.

THE HEADLINER

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
When: Saturday.
Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC.
Odds: Ravens -9.5, total 43.5.

Reasons to bet the Texans against the AFC No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens must include more than just the eye test.

The odds-on NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, Stroud leads the Texans into this divisional round matchup as 9.5-point underdogs.

The Ravens are led by odds-on NFL MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, who is not infallible.

Over the past three seasons as a favorite of 3.5 points or more, he’s 6-16 ATS. It’s even worse when applying Saturday’s line.

Jackson is 1-8 ATS when leading a favorite of 7.5 points or more. Maybe he just enjoys a close game.

His playoff history is checkered, to put it kindly:

2018, lost to Chargers, 78.8 rating
2019, lost to Titans, 63.2 rating
2021, beat the Titans, 74.8 rating (Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill posted an 83 rating)
2021, Lost to Bills, 61.5 rating
2022, Did not play, injured.

Jackson is a true talent — the league MVP again very likely — and his legs might prove the difference Saturday.

But his playoff stats are what they are: a 1-3 record with three touchdown passes, five interceptions and a 55.9 completion percentage.

So if you’re talking perceived pressure, it’s all on Jackson and the Ravens; Stroud and the Texans come in waving wads of house money.

Here come the supporting (if selective) statistics to back our position:

Home favorites are just 42 percent against the spread (ATS) during the divisional round according to Action Network numbers over the past 20 years.

The No. 1 seeds are 35% ATS, and, fitting our narrative, if narrowly, are 10-25-1 ATS (29 percent) when they are favored by 10 points or fewer.

The most comfortable fit among the trends favoring Houston, however, is the “we don’t know any better” angle.

The Texans missed last season’s playoffs.

The Texans are the road team.

The Texans are rolling.

Per Action Network: Road teams that missed last year’s playoffs are 27-13 ATS (68 percent) in the past 40 divisional round games.

The bet: Texans +9.5.

BONUS PLAY

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS
(Consensus line: Bills -2.5)

Quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills have fought through must-win games for weeks. The mentality suits them well, as you can see by Buffalo hosting a division-round game.

Counterpart Patrick Mahomes has led a flawed offense most of the season and plays his first ever true road playoff game (no, Super Bowls don’t count).

This is not likely to be the aerial show of past iterations. We’re expecting more running plays and a tight contest. Mahomes has the stats to back up the oddsmakers’ number.

Mahomes is a guy who rarely needs extra fuel, but when his team is an underdog, watch out. He’s 7-3 when the Chiefs are the underdog, and 8-1-1 in those games against the spread.

He’s not likely to be on the short end of a blowout.

In their meeting earlier this season in Kansas City, the teams combined for 37 points.

Buffalo’s defense, dented by injury as a team can be, has actually performed better in recent weeks. We’ll allow that holding down the Steelers offense is no great accomplishment.

The Chiefs have been under the posted game totals in five of their past six games.

The bet: Tease two-leg parlay, Chiefs +7.5 with the under 51.5 (-125 a DraftKings).

PLAYER PROP

There’s no questioning the competitiveness of these QBs. They will exhaust every option Sunday, and will eagerly tuck it and run. Let’s exploit that fearlessness.

The bet: Two-leg parlay, Josh Allen 30 or more rushing yards with Patrick Mahomes 25 or more rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM).

–Field Level Media

Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) looks to throw a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Catch a New Year’s Parlay: Dolphins, Niners and Rams in Week 17

We hit our headliner with the Lions in Week 16 but dropped our Cowboys bet when the Dallas defense gave up a last-second field goal to the Miami Dolphins.

This week, we dare to fade the new MVP favorite and sprinkle in some California flavor for a tasty three-leg parlay.

See how this primary parlay wager developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. ET, 49ers -11

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET, Rams -6

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 4:25 p.m. ET, Ravens -3.5

(DraftKings)

Big, big win by the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas night. No doubt about it.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson leapfrogged erstwhile MVP favorite Brock Purdy and is atop the leaderboard for the spotlight NFL award.

Jackson must first deal with a form of Kryptonite: His team is a home favorite.

According to Action Network data, Jackson is 14-23 against the spread as a home favorite. Over the past 20 years, he ranks 211th out of 217 quarterbacks against the spread as home favorite.

The Ravens are at home — and favored — against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Baltimore’s tough-guy linebacker Patrick Queen offered the Dolphins a bit of motivation this week, saying Miami’s offense uses “pretty stuff … gimmick stuff” and talking about the Ravens’ mindset “to come out and just hit people in the mouth.”

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel won’t have any trouble convincing his team to play hard.

“There’s always going to be something that you have to prove,” McDaniel said Wednesday. “A great thing about this profession … is you get an opportunity to define yourself every single game.”

We’ll boost the number to +10.5 and take Miami. To ensure decent value, we’ll add two legs and adjust those spreads, too.

First, the 49ers are in a “get right” game on the East Coast against the spiraling Washington Commanders. If we move the number from 11 down to “even,” we create a nice cushion.

San Francisco can’t coast just yet if it hopes to secure the top NFC seed and a first-round playoff bye.

To make this a plus-money parlay, we need the Rams.

LA is on the road as six-point favorites against the Giants. We secured a seat on the LA bandwagon weeks ago as the Rams secured better health and a great shot at the playoffs.

It’s Tyrod Taylor – not Tommy DeVito – at quarterback for New York but he’s not going to lift the Giants against LA, which certainly needs to win. And that’s the LA leg: the Rams to win the game (no point spread to cover).

The bet: Adjusted-line, three-team parlay.

Dolphins +10.5
49ers moneyline
Rams moneyline
(+102 at DraftKings.)

THEY SAID IT

“I believe we play better under pressure. I don’t think anybody plays like us. We just need to keep playing that way and keep playing the Raven way.”

— Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.

BONUS PLAY

Patriots at Bills, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Bills -13.5 (FanDuel).

Buffalo survived its lookahead game against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in a forgivable performance in the wake of the Bills’ pasting of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15.

But the defense is still addled by injury and ineffectiveness. The offense remains a revival in progress with the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs combo the most troublesome for Buffalo fans.

Diggs, undeniably a top pass-catching talent in the league, has failed to reach 50 yards receiving in five of the past six games.

The sputtering nature of the Bills offense now requires Allen – and running back James Cook – to contribute strongly on the ground.

The Patriots defense has not been the problem in New England this season and ranks among the top 10 in yards per drive allowed in 2023.

QB Bailey Zappe and the Pats’ offense found a couple of things that worked last week and could do just enough to rack up 14 or more points.

This betting number appears too big for a game in which the pressure lies squarely on the Bills.

The play: Patriots +13.5 (FanDuel).

PROP CORNER

This Rams road game at New York is a business trip, and the company leaders are primed to return a nice payout if you invest in their performance.

Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford provides the calm confidence needed in a game that carries some urgency.

The benefactors will be running back Kyren Williams and veteran receiver Cooper Kupp, who watched teammate Puka Nacua have a huge day last week.

It’s Kupp’s turn to show he still has the tools of a top target for Stafford.

Prop play: Three-leg adjusted parlay.

K. Williams 70+ rushing yards
C. Kupp 4+ receptions
C. Kupp 50+ receiving yards.
(-107 at FanDuel)

–Field Level Media

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love might find the Chargers' defense to his liking on Sunday. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Packers vs Chargers: Preview, Prop Pick, Prediction and bonus combo

The race to be this season’s most disappointing quarterback began opening night when Danny Dimes (the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones) provided an epic effort in a 40-0 prime-time assault on viewers.

From Zach Wilson to Desmond Ridder to Jordan Love and Jimmy G, it’s been a favorite pastime for the pundits.

This weekend, we’ll try to speak a correction into existence: Stop the hate and support Love.

See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

Chargers at Packers, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Chargers -3, total 44

(DraftKings)

The Chargers are an entertaining, exciting offense and they probably offered up about a 90 percent on football’s Rotten Tomatoes entertainment reviews last week in a 41-38 home defeat against the Detroit Lions.

But that defense …

The Packers fan base was palpably beginning to turn against Love, who stepped in for Green Bay legend Aaron Rodgers this season.

Love, despite a decent Sunday (289 yards passing, two TDs, two INTs) in Pittsburgh’s hostile road environment, remains in the lower third of starting QBs in most key metrics. He’s 22nd in ESPN’s quarterback ratings.

A closer look showed some marked improvement from Love. The LA defense, coupled with the relative comforts of Lambeau Field, should bring Love some good vibes.

Green Bay’s receiving corps, perhaps boosted by the continued emergence of Jayden Reed (five catches for 84 yards including a touchdown last week), would help by making a few plays Sunday. The Chargers have given up huge chunk plays in the passing game.

Of the six Packers defeats this season, four were one-score games they fumbled on the road: at Atlanta (25-24), at Las Vegas (17-13), at Denver (19-17) and last week in Pittsburgh.

As for the second leg of our bet, there should be no question about this game’s potential for a shootout.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert lacks a quality offensive line but is certainly an elite NFL leader. He said he and his teammates remain confident following their season high in points last week.

The defense? It surrendered a season high in points.

Herbert has passed for 2,349 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions.

“I think you just have to build off it,” Herbert said about the offense, adding, “We can move the ball pretty well and we can get things rolling.”

The Bolts’ offense will roll, and it will have to keep pace with what the defense allows Green Bay to do.

The play: Parlay the Packers teased to +7.5 with the over teased to 37.5 (at -105 odds, per DraftKings).

THEY SAID IT

“I just really love his mentality. I think he’s wired the right way mentally, in terms of just how he attacks it. Not that it’s always going to be perfect, but when he does make a mistake, there’s no flinch to him.” — Packers coach Matt LaFleur on rookie WR Jayden Reed

BONUS COMBO

Sick of (Josh) Dobbsmania yet? Give us one more week.

Vikings at Broncos, 8:20 p.m. ET

The line: Broncos -2.5, total 42.5 (DraftKings).

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has to be enjoying the game-plan process that now involves QB1 Josh Dobbs.

Minnesota’s season did not end with Kirk Cousins’ injury, and now the Vikings are favored to make the playoffs – so long as Dobbs stays upright.

The rejuvenated Vikings visit the tough Broncos defense Sunday night, but also the low-scoring Broncos offense. This seems like a nice recipe for a parlay.

Dobbs, released by Arizona as Kyler Murray became healthy, actually has some offensive assets now.

Denver was basically given its Week 10 victory in Buffalo and certainly needs to do more offensively against Minnesota, winners of five consecutive games.

Barring a couple of long TDs from Russell Wilson, the struggling Denver offense – coupled with its improving defense – should do enough to keep this score under the total.

Dobbs, meanwhile, should be good to provide enough key plays to cover the number.

The play: Two-leg same-game parlay teasing Vikings +7.5 with under teased to 45.5 (+108, per DraftKings).

PROP CORNER

Staying with the slugfest in Denver, we are going to enjoy Josh Dobbs for at least another week.

The Broncos’ invigorated defensive front is likely to pressure Dobbs into attempting to escape the pocket. That’s fine for this prop.

Dobbs has rushed six times or more in seven of his past eight games, and in addition to any scripted QB running plays, he’ll have to create some positive yards on scrambles.

Prop play: Vikings Josh Dobbs over 5.5 rushing attempts (+115 at BetMGM).

–Field Level Media

Oct 21, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Utah Utes running back Sione Vaki (28) carries the ball against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon vs. Utah: Preview, Props and Prediction

The first College Football Playoff rankings are released on Tuesday, and it’s perhaps fitting to happen on Halloween.

While the clock won’t strike midnight and turn contenders into pumpkins just yet, the time is now for a few teams to turn up the intensity.

Oregon and Utah meet Saturday in what is almost certainly a CFP “loser out” matchup.

Despite a disappointing loss by USC at Notre Dame, the Pac-12 is enjoying a high-profile position in its final season as we know it. The rising tide has lifted all boats, including the Ducks and Utes.

Saturday’s matchup in Salt Lake carries realistic CFP implications in particular for the Ducks. With only one defeat, Oregon would likely be on the good side of a CFP final four vote if it wins out.

We have a tasty parlay for our betting choice along with news, notes and quotes.

–Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., ET
–Television: Fox
–Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City.
–Point Spread, Total: Oregon -6.5; Total 47.5

QUICK PICK
Among the myriad factors applied to the CFP ranking system is strength of schedule; not only the opponents, but the opponents of those opponents.

Follow me?

That means the Pac-12’s top half, five of whom are in this week’s AP Top 25, brings serious substance to conference contenders.

Oregon’s lone loss was at No. 5 Washington; Utah fell to No. 19 Oregon State – and upset USC last Saturday in Los Angeles.

In an atypical year – Pac-12 fans aren’t so readily able to complain about a lack of national respect – Oregon lost very little CFP traction in its 36-33 road defeat in Seattle.

The Action Network power ratings, for example, have the Ducks all the way up at No. 4. The ratings, according to Action, “aim to judge the true quality of a team based on advanced metrics, coaching changes, year-over-year roster continuity … and a host of other underlying components.”

Ducks QB Bo Nix, who sits sixth on the BetMGM Heisman futures list, faces a make-or-break Saturday but is skilled and experienced enough to handle the road pressure.

Bookmakers opened Oregon as a three-point favorite but saw the early money drive the spread past six points.

The Ducks now have enough video of Utah quarterbacks Bryson Barnes – who threw three TDs and rushed for 57 yards against USC – and backup Nate Johnson to cultivate a winning defensive scheme.

The pick: Oregon 27, Utah 21
The bet: Alternate spread/total: Oregon -2.5, Total over 41.5 (+100 at BetMGM).

THE NEWS

The Ducks have more firepower with an offense that ranks second nationally in scoring (47 points per game) and total offense (551.6 yards per game).

Nix, who made his NCAA-record 54th career start at quarterback last week, has passed for 2,089 yards, 19 touchdowns and one interception this season. That pick is the lone turnover committed by the Ducks, who have the fewest in the nation.

Utah is tied for third with just four turnovers.

The Utes rank 96th in scoring (23.4 ppg) and 98th in total offense (345.0 ypg). The attack has been spruced up by having standout safety Sione Vaki (tied for the team lead with 35 tackles) play on both sides of the ball.

Vaki caught two touchdown passes and compiled 217 yards last week in Utah’s 34-32 road victory over then-No. 18 Southern California. He caught five passes for 149 yards and rushed nine times for 68 more.

“The impact he makes on offense is actually bigger than the impact he has on defense,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said. “And he’s one of the best safeties in the country, so that tells you how valuable he has been for us.”

Utah ranks 11th in scoring defense (15.0 ppg) and 14th in total defense (295.4 ypg).

The Utes, No. 5 nationally in rush defense at 78 yards per game, face a daunting challenge in trying to execute a repeat performance on Ducks standout Bucky Irving.

Irving, who has rolled up 649 rushing yards this season, had just 20 yards on 10 carries in Oregon’s 20-17 home win over the Utes last season.

He scored three touchdowns last week against Washington State when he put up a season-best 129 yards and posted 127 rushing yards against Washington.

THEY SAID IT
“I would say his heart is pounding out of his chest. This dude is so passionate, he cares so much for his teammates and never goes down on first contact. Really selfless player, and I think that really shows up when you see this guy play on the field.”

–Oregon coach Dan Lanning on Ducks running back Bucky Irving

–Field Level Media

Sep 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Dalvin Cook (33) carries the ball asNew England Patriots linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley (8) defends during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 props: Will Jets give Dalvin Cook a look?

Week 6 marks the end of the London games on the schedule, with the morning meeting between Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Bye weeks are in the mix again with four teams off last week and the Packers and Steelers off in Week 6.

Here are our top five player props for Week 6.

–Raiders tight end Michael Mayer under 18.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Mayer’s two catches for 39 yards in Week 5 equates to a breakout performance, considering he was targeted twice with one catch for 2 yards in his previous four games.

Mayer, active for all five games this season while playing at least 40 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, did see an increased snap count to 66 percent in Week 5.

We’re not convinced we can read too much into that.

After all, it was the first time this season that Mayer saw close to 10 percent more of the snaps than fellow tight end Austin Hooper.

The Raiders are coming off a game against a Packers team that ranks 17th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. This week, they’ll face a Patriots defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards (142) to tight ends.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick should be familiar with Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from his time in New England. Look for Belichick to try and take away the middle of the field and force Garoppolo to beat him outside the numbers.

–Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa under 31.5 pass attempts (+100 at BetMGM)
The Dolphins are the second-highest favorites on the board this week for several reasons. Carolina is still winless on the year and ranks 29th defensively in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric.

However, a closer look reveals that Carolina’s defensive frailty might have more to do with stopping the run.

The Panthers actually rank dead last in EPA (expected points added) against the run, but they’re ninth in EPA against the pass.

As a result, the Dolphins’ running game should be on prominent display.

Even with Miami’s standout rookie running back De’Von Achane set to miss the next four games with a knee injury, you can argue that there’s a bit of a plug-and-play aspect with the Dolphins’ ground game.

While Achane drew plenty of headlines with his 460 rushing yards through four games and 12.1 yards per carry, Raheem Mostert has also been productive with 5.4 yards per carry.

Chris Brooks will likely see more touches, and even though he only has nine carries on the year, he’s averaging 7.3 yards per rush.

With Miami being such heavy favorites at home against a team that struggles to stop the run, this doesn’t feel like a game where the Dolphins will have to rely on Tagovailoa’s arm to lead them to victory.

–Rams tight end Tyler Higbee under 3.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
After back-to-back games with five receptions, Higbee had two grabs on three targets in Week 5. But there was another critical development in their recent game against the Eagles as Cooper Kupp returned from injury.

Kupp missed the first four weeks due to a hamstring strain. In his first game back, he saw 12 targets and caught eight passes for 118 yards.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua left Van Jefferson expendable and he was traded to the Falcons.

Bettors can attribute some correlation here with Kupp’s return and a decline in Higbee’s production. There’s only one ball to go around, and we think Higbee will find himself even lower down the pecking order in Week 6.

–Breece Hall under 13.5 rush attempts (-125 at DraftKings)
Hall is fresh off a breakout game with 22 carries for 177 yards to help the Jets beat the Broncos. However, that performance came against a defense ranked dead last in defensive DVOA and 30th in EPA against the run.

This week, the Jets face an Eagles’ run defense currently ninth in EPA. While there’s no question that the Jets are stepping up in class, Hall’s heavy workload in Week 5 makes him even more of a fade candidate this week against the Eagles.

It’s worth noting that he didn’t register more than 12 carries in any of his first four games.

The Jets are as high as seven-point home underdogs, with the Eagles coming to town. And if they have to play from behind, the Eagles will likely force them into passing situations where they’ll have to abandon the run.

–Dalvin Cook over 13.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
We like correlated plays, and this one makes some sense: All in on Cook’s rushing prop to go over 13.5 yards.

We’re not asking for a ton of yardage here, as Cook has already gone over this number in four of five games this season.

The seventh-year pro is only averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and he’s at that age (28) where we tend to see some decline in production at the running back position.

However, Cook still has a role to play on this Jets team as he can help carry some of the load at running back with Hall only in his second season as a pro.

With coaches very mindful of the workload for their running backs game by game, look for some of Hall’s carries to go to Cook in Week 6.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Oklahoma's Dillon Gabriel (8) warms up before an NCAA football game between University of Oklahoma (OU) and Iowa State at the Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023.

Texas vs. Oklahoma: Preview, Prop Pick and Prediction

Finally, entering their sixth game, the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners have a chance to show whether they belong in the College Football Playoff conversation as they meet the No. 3 Texas Longhorns in Dallas.

The Longhorns passed their big early-season test, stopping then-No. 3 Alabama 34-24, and are they rolling into the schools’ final Red River Rivalry game as Big 12 members.

Both schools are leaving for the Southeastern Conference beginning next season.

Unbeaten and relatively untested, Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) seeks a reversal from last year’s meeting with Texas, a 49-0 Longhorns victory in which Sooners starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel did not play due to injury.

Gabriel is healthy and ready for Saturday, though, and Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers needs to stay sharp to give Texas (5-0, 2-0) a chance to cover the 6.5-point spread.

Is there betting value on underdog Oklahoma? The Sooners have improved week to week and appear primed for a big performance.

Or is there more value on the total?

We have news, trends and quotes — along with our game prediction with a best bet as well as a prop pick for good measure.

–Kickoff: Noon, ET
–Television: ABC
–Location: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas
–Point Spread, Total: Texas -6.5, Total 60.5

QUICK PICK

This feels like a classic edition is coming, with the rewards for the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes.

Combined, these offenses have accounted for 27 touchdown passes with only three interceptions, clearing the way for the better defense to take the spotlight.

Gabriel, a senior, may find some big-game jitters. Ewers seemed to exorcise his demons against Alabama and should provide more stability.

Both defenses rank in the top 12 nationally in points allowed per game, in the top 10 in third-down defense, in the top 20 in turnover margin and in the top 30 in total defense.

Lost amid the offensive fireworks displayed by the Sooners is the fact they have held opponents to 11 points or fewer in three of their five games.

Oklahoma coach Brent Venables has turned the defense around, not unexpected given his previous work as Clemson’s defensive coordinator.

The Sooners should be able to dramatically slow the Texas ground game and show Ewers and the Longhorns plenty of elite schemes and looks.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, meanwhile, has a wealth of tools to employ. His in-game adjustments figure to be just enough to push his Longhorns to 6-0 with the national title very much in reach.

However, 6.5 points is a little too much in a neutral-site game, with attendance split on the 50-yard line.

The pick: Texas 31, Oklahoma 26
The bet: Under 60.5

THE NEWS

Last season, Ewers threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns with one interception against Oklahoma.

He has been excellent this season, completing 66 percent of his passes for 1,358 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception. Ewers also has run for five scores.

Gabriel has put up even better numbers, albeit against the likes of Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati and Iowa State. That said, Gabriel has hit on 75.2 percent of his passes for 1,593 yards.

No doubt, Gabriel has seen plenty of potential trouble watching Longhorns video this week.

“They’re very physical,” Gabriel said of the Longhorns’ defense. “They’ve been dominant in their first five games. Just have been playing really good football, so it’ll be a great challenge.”

Gabriel threw 25 TD passes last season, and he already has 15 touchdown tosses — with only two interceptions — this season. He has four rushing scores, which leads the Sooners.

THEY SAID IT

“Coach Venables, he’d been doing it too long at too high of a level to think they weren’t going to get that thing fixed. I told you last year that he would.”

–Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on Oklahoma coach Brent Venables’ defense.

PROP PICK

According to Action Network numbers, Oklahoma tops the nation in stuff rate, sits third in defensive line yards and is 10th in expected points added per rush.

The Sooners are a perfect 5-0 against the spread, and they should show enough to slow the Longhorns’ attack, or at least create the need for adjustments during the first half.

Texas, meanwhile, has gathered momentum after its victory in Tuscaloosa, suffocating its next three opponents (Wyoming, 31-10; at Baylor, 38-6; Kansas, 40-14).

The Longhorns’ defense has set the tone early, too, holding its five opponents to first-half outputs of 3, 6, 7, 6 and 7 points.

The prop: Texas -2.5 for the full game, parlayed to the under 31.5 points in the first half (+130 at BetMGM)

–Field Level Media

Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey (84) looks on during warm ups before the start of the Bulldogs' game against UAB in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023.

Auburn vs. Georgia: Preview, Prop Pick and Prediction

On a Saturday lacking heavyweight matchups, count on the SEC to kick up some intrigue.

Two-time defending champion Georgia hits the road to meet the Auburn Tigers and the No. 1-ranked Bulldogs are leaving Athens for the first time all season.

Top-ranked and favored to three-peat, Georgia has been largely untested through four weeks.

First-year Tigers coach Hugh Freeze doesn’t have nearly the weapons held by his counterpart, Kirby Smart, but his team presents another measuring stick for the Bulldogs.

Georgia cruised to a 49-21 home win over UAB last week. But the Bulldogs were not particularly dominant in a 24-14 victory over SEC foe South Carolina the week prior.

Is there betting value on 14.5-point underdog Auburn, or is Georgia about to put together a complete effort and rout the Tigers?

We have news, trends and quotes — along with our spread pick and a prop pick for good measure.

–Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
–Television: CBS
–Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala.
–Point Spread, Total: Georgia -14.5, Total 45.5

QUICK PICK

If Auburn wants to bring more than a scare on Saturday, the ground game must be efficient against a Georgia defense that has allowed opponents’ rushing attacks success.

Auburn will try desperately to create first downs with an early run game. Unfortunately, that is an open secret and, with the Tigers’ one-dimensional offense, the plan could be scuttled before halftime.

Not good, given the limited resources from the Auburn air attack, which ranks among the worst in SEC passing metrics.

Auburn (3-1) tries to dominate on the ground, but Georgia likely will stifle the Tigers rushing attack and force a shift to the passing game.

Georgia’s defense is allowing only 87 rushing yards per game this season.

Tigers quarterback Payton Thorne managed only 44 passing yards in last week’s 27-10 loss at Texas A&M.

How are the Tigers expected to deal with a Georgia defense that is getting healthier?

Georgia has all the capability to bury poor passing teams, and should be able to turn this into a rout.

Add the fact that Smart motivates his team in hostile environments. When favored on the road, Georgia is 25-2 straight up and 19-8 against the spread.

Let’s eat.

The pick: Georgia 34, Auburn 14.

THE NEWS

Georgia (4-0) aims to push its winning streak to 22 games.

This matchup offers Georgia quarterback Carson Beck an opportunity to firmly announce his presence as a leader as he makes his first career road start.

The junior has completed 72.7 percent of his passes, throwing for six touchdowns and only one interception.

Beck had a career-high 338 yards and three touchdowns last week.

The Bulldogs have won five straight regular-season games over the Tigers since a 40-17 loss on Nov. 11, 2017. Just weeks later, Georgia beat Auburn 28-7 in the SEC title game.

Georgia scored touchdowns on all six visits to the red zone last week when it rolled up 582 yards of total offense despite three turnovers.

When Auburn faces similar talent (Power Five games, for example), it tends to struggle. The Tigers barely beat a middling Pac-12 team, Cal, 14-10, and then were dominated on the stat sheet and on the field by Texas A&M, gaining only half the Aggies’ yardage amount.

In those two games, Cal and Texas A&M, Auburn failed to reach 230 yards of total offense.

Thorne has thrown four touchdowns and three interceptions in four games and was replaced by Robby Ashford last Saturday.

Freeze was leaning toward giving Thorne another start.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are far from one-dimensional — as one would expect when their recruiting classes are consistently filled with future NFL players.

Running back Daijuan Edwards averages almost six yards a carry and all-everything tight end Brock Bowers already has 22 receptions for more than 250 yards.

THEY SAID IT

“It’s not all Payton, but sometimes it is and he owns it. We had a good meeting (Sunday) night and we just got to try this week to get a plan in place that we can all execute and all understand. And that falls on (offensive coordinator) Philip (Montgomery) and his staff and ultimately on me.”

— Auburn coach Hugh Freeze on starting quarterback Payton Thorne.

PROP PICK

Let’s guard against a nasty back-door cover by teasing the margin to Georgia -9.5 and using that in a BetMGM same-game parlay with Georgia to score more than 27.5 points.

The prop: Georgia -9.5 with Georgia over 27.5 points scored (-115).

–Field Level Media

Alabama vs. Texas: Preview, Prop Pick & Prediction

The Crimson Tide takes a 43-game home-field, nonconference winning streak — easily the longest active run in the FBS — into Saturday’s much-anticipated rematch with the Texas Longhorns.

We have news, trends, notes and quotes along with our spread pick and a prop pick for good measure for this week’s heavyweight matchup between teams ranked in the top 11.

Not to be downplayed is the matchup between Alabama’s Nick Saban and Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who is one of many successful branches from Saban’s coaching tree.

A former offensive coordinator under Saban at Alabama, Sarkisian faces long odds for victory, even if Georgia’s Kirby Smart has shown the way. Saban’s former assistants have won only two of 30 matchups with Saban.

Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers threw for 134 yards before suffering a first-quarter shoulder injury during last season’s game — a 20-19 Alabama win in Austin — and brings an experience advantage over the Tide’s Jalen Milroe.

But is there much of a true talent gap at the quarterback position?

–Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
–Television: ESPN
–Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.
–Point Spread: Alabama (-7)

QUICK PICK
This pregame opportunity may be the last time ‘Bama backers can find a price advantage based on the inexperience of Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe.

National analysts and social media critics remain largely uncertain as to Milroe’s 2023 potential, with several suggesting the coveted QB job is very much in question and that Milroe still must prove himself.

A perceived mismatch at that position also has kept the point spread at a touchdown and, for those who use all-time series records, the Longhorns are 7-2-1 all time vs. the Tide.

Milroe flashed some strong talent, albeit in a blowout against an inferior opponent, Middle Tennessee State, last week. But he has all the makings of a solid and improving college quarterback.

Texas needs this to stay firmly in the College Football Playoff picture and would love a signature win in its final Big 12 season before joining the SEC next season, but as Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt pointed out, top five teams last season were 30-1 at home (Michigan over Ohio State the lone outlier).

The pick: Alabama 31, Texas 20

THE NEWS
Texas wasn’t terribly impressive last week in a victory over Rice, but Longhorns supporters offered a big reason for that performance: Sarkisian probably barely cracked the playbook, holding a great deal back so as to prevent Saban from seeing new schematic wrinkles.

While there is likely some truth there, the execution of the offense might be Sarkisian’s biggest concern. It starts with Ewers, who, since his strong first quarter in last season’s matchup with Alabama, has been far from the Heisman hopeful Texas fans thought they had.

Alabama, of course, has five-star guys all over the field – and that is further cause for concern.

Milroe, though it was only Middle Tennessee State, became the first Crimson Tide player to throw for three touchdowns and rush for at least two in a single game. That’s not nothing.

THEY SAID IT
“Jalen’s a fantastic player. I had a chance to recruit him out of high school. He’s got a dynamic arm, he can make every throw in the book. … He’s a tremendous runner. He’s an elite runner with the ball in his hand – with his speed and his physicality. And he’s highly competitive, he’s a really good leader.”
— Texas coach Steve Sarkisian on Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe

KEY POINT
It’s the line that gains. And we have some questions about the Longhorns’ offensive and defensive lines.

While the Texas defense was largely dominant against Rice, the Owls converted prime opportunities into points. Meanwhile, Alabama found little resistance once it crossed midfield.

The trenches, though it’s only a one-game sample, appear to lean toward the Tide. Against Rice, the Texas offensive line allowed eight tackles for loss, multiple pressures on Ewers and three sacks.

PROP PICK
With Milroe in the early stages of finding his footing, Alabama is likely to make every attempt to establish the run.

Sarkisian could try to turn Ewers loose with downfield throws early in the game, but the quarterback has given no indication he’s ready to carve up a talented Tide secondary.

If we see a dedicated ground game in the first half, bank on a lower-scoring game by the time the final gun sounds.

If you’re nervous about Alabama giving a full touchdown, play this parlay that teases the total up six points, available via BetMGM.

Alabama money line/Under 60.5 points (+105).

–Field Level Media

Apr 27, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Philadelphia Eagles ninth overall in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft at Union Station. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

2023 NFL Draft: Winners and losers of the first round

The NFL draft got off to a memorable start Thursday night in Kansas City, Mo., with three quarterbacks off the board in the first four picks and a trade for the No. 3 pick kept under wraps until the last moment.

With all the usual caveats that it’s better to grade a draft at least three years after the fact to see how these picks turned out, here are Field Level Media’s quick-hit winners and losers from the first 31 selections of 2023:

Winners
Houston Texans — The Texans’ front office pulled off a trade so unexpected and impactful that we could be talking about it for years to come if it helps finally turn the franchise around. Supposedly torn between drafting a franchise quarterback or an impact defender, Houston managed both by taking C.J. Stroud at No. 2 and giving the Arizona Cardinals a package that included next year’s first-rounder to grab the No. 3 spot. If this works out how Nick Caserio, DeMeco Ryans and company are hoping it will, Anderson becomes their new J.J. Watt and Stroud becomes the pillar they need on offense.

Bijan Robinson — At No. 8 overall, the Atlanta Falcons made Robinson the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley went No. 2 in 2018. For a point of contrast, the first running back off the board in 2022 was Breece Hall to the New York Jets at No. 36 overall. Hall signed a four-year, $9.01 million rookie deal; Robinson is in line for nearly $22 million in total value thanks to the rookie pay scale, according to Spotrac.

Philadelphia Eagles — The Eagles came into the draft with no real needs and stole two immensely talented defensive players from Georgia. Jalen Carter’s off-the-field concerns only knocked him down to No. 9. No problem — the defensive tackle can learn from and play alongside Fletcher Cox, a potential future Hall of Famer, then take over when Cox retires. Edge rusher Nolan Smith, also viewed as a top-10 talent, slipped all the way to No. 30, where the Eagles were waiting with their other pick. Former Georgia teammates Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis will add a layer of comfort in Philly, too.

New England Patriots — The Patriots were scheduled to pick 14th, traded back three spots with the Pittsburgh Steelers and watched Pittsburgh select Broderick Jones, the last viable offensive tackle target for the rival New York Jets sitting at No. 15. If Bill Belichick indirectly helped destabilize the line in front of Aaron Rodgers in New York, he surely doesn’t mind. Then the Pats got to snap up Oregon corner Christian Gonzalez — who had near-unanimous top-10 grades — at No. 17.

Losers
Will Levis — Self-explanatory. The Kentucky quarterback was expected to go in the top five, with some mocks projecting a team like the Titans to trade up to No. 3 for the pocket passer. An anonymous Reddit post claiming to be familiar with Levis’ conversations even had some believing the Panthers were ready to crown Levis their man at No. 1. He sat in the green room in Kansas City, plummeted past teams like Seattle that conceivably could have stashed him for the future and now will be the best available player on the board when action resumes Friday.

Detroit Lions — Detroit fans were none too happy with their team’s moves Thursday night. The Lions traded down with Arizona from No. 6 to No. 12 — accumulating picks, so far, so good. They picked Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs, surprising everyone, including Gibbs, who thought this was a bit high for a running back. Detroit also picked 18th and made Iowa star Jack Campbell the first inside linebacker off the board. Doubling down on players with low positional value who could have been available in the second round places the Lions on this list.

New York Giants — No team in the NFL had a greater need at wide receiver than the Giants. Unfortunately for them, the run on first-round-caliber wideouts happened right in front of their noses at Nos. 20-23. So they gave the Jaguars not one but two free picks to move up exactly one spot to No. 24 and address a secondary need with Maryland corner Deonte Banks. Fans of Big Blue better hope for a DeAndre Hopkins deal this weekend.

AFC North defenses — Lamar Jackson is locked up for the next five years and the Ravens added a speedy receiver, Boston College’s Zay Flowers, at No. 22 to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman. It’s been a tough few years for Baltimore. Is a resurgence brewing?

–Field Level Media