Tag: picks

Jun 7, 2022; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja Marr Chase (1) walks off the field after minicamp at the Paul Brown Stadium practice fields. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

NFL Week 2: Predictions, Prop Pick for every game

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Field Level Media NFL writers offer their prediction and one intriguing prop bet for every Week 2 game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Bengals -3.5, Total 49.5
Prediction: Bengals 30-23
Prop Pick: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase over 84.5 yards (-113 Bet365)
Chase was silent Week 1 (two catches, 26 yards). Last season he was held under 45 receiving yards twice. The two games after were a two-TD game vs. Washington (6-118) and a three-TD game at Baltimore (11-264).

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Cowboys -5.5, Total 44.5
Prediction: Cowboys 27-16
Prop Pick: Giants QB Russell Wilson over .5 interceptions (-115, BetMGM)
Wilson’s interception in Week 1 didn’t count. It was wiped out because of a roughing-the-passer penalty on former teammate Bobby Wagner. Dallas locked down the Eagles’ outside receivers in the opener and has a sticky-handed secondary that will make comeback mode a challenge if the Giants fall behind again.

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Lions -5.5, Total 46.5
Prediction: Lions 28-20
Prop Pick: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs 70-plus rushing yards plus anytime TD (+190, DraftKings)
Gibbs caught 10 passes last week and has been an animal at home. He also destroys the Bears. Gibbs had 975 yards from scrimmage (108.3 per game), 12 TDs (nine rushing) in nine home games last season. In four career games against the Bears, he has 435 total yards (108.8 per game) and three rushing touchdowns.

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Rams -5.5, Total 41.5
Prediction: Rams 24-15
Prop Pick: Rams RB Kyren Williams over 74.5 rushing yards (-115, DraftKings)
Williams had at least 75 rushing yards in 10 games last season and is over 100 rushing yards in three consecutive road games.

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Dolphins -1.5, Total 43.5
Prediction: Dolphins 26-13
Prop Pick: Patriots WR Stefon Diggs over 41.5 receiving yards (-110, Caesars)
Diggs was targeted seven times and caught six passes Week 1, and the Dolphins allowed more than nine yards per dropback to the Colts in the opener. With Diggs working inside and second-year QB Drake Maye programmed not to hold the ball by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, this connection is very likely to be well-worn in Week 2.

New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: 49ers -4.5, Total 41.5
Prediction: 49ers 23-10
Prop Pick: Saints TE Juwan Johnson over 33.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
Johnson hit the over on receptions and receiving yards nine times in the past 13 games. He caught eight passes for 76 yards in Week 1.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Bills -6.5, Total 46.5
Prediction: Bills 26-22
Prop Pick: Bills QB Josh Allen over 5.5 rushing attempts (-120, FanDuel)
Allen has gone over his rushing total projection in six consecutive road games, and the Jets are committed to man coverage. RB James Cook came out of the Sunday night win banged up and Allen ran nine times with a TD at the Jets in 2024.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Steelers -2.5, Total 39.5
Prediction: Steelers 22-17
Prop Pick: Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet anytime TD (+220, FanDuel)
Pittsburgh’s 17 missed tackles were the worst in the NFL in Week 1, and the Jets steamrolled the Steelers’ run defense all day long to be in position to pull the upset. There’s no fear of Sam Darnold tucking the ball to run, but Seattle does have an RB tandem to move the chains. Charbonnet shares time with Kenneth Walker but is the best option when Seattle needs to pick up hard yards. He scored his 10th career rushing touchdown last week.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Ravens -10.5, Total 44.5
Prediction: Ravens 35-17
Prop Pick: Ravens TE Mark Andrews anytime TD (+165, )
Baltimore led the NFL with 17 red-zone TD passes in 2024. Andrews caught TD passes in both games against the Browns last season and hit Cleveland with a two-TD game in 2023. With all the focus on hemming in QB Lamar Jackson and handling RB Derrick Henry, Andrews is a great prop target Sunday. An Andrews parlay of over 3.5 receptions and 40.5 yards plus a touchdown is worth contemplation.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Broncos -1.5, Total 41.5
Prediction: Broncos QB Bo Nix over 34 pass attempts (+121, DraftKings)
Prop Pick: Nix attempted 40 passes last week and while he was miserable against the blitz and turned the ball over three times, coach Sean Payton doesn’t change his stripes. He’ll blend the running game, but the ball will be in the hands of the quarterback again this week.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Cardinals -6.5, Total 45.5
Prediction: Cardinals 33-18
Prop Pick: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard over 61.5 rushing yards (-115 at ESPNBet)
Hubbard hammered the Cardinals for 152 yards on 25 carries last season in an overtime win against Arizona. No doubt Arizona is prepared for the plow horse approach from Carolina this week, but can they stop it? After giving up 126.4 yards per game rushing last season, they allowed 4.9 yards per carry at New Orleans in Week 1.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Eagles -1.5, Total 46.5
Prediction: Eagles 31-23
Prop Pick: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes over 235.5 yards (-112, BetMGM)
Mahomes might not have his preferred pecking order at wide receiver, and Xavier Worthy was the biggest threat to Philadelphia in the Super Bowl loss. Even if Worthy isn’t on the field, the Chiefs have to like what they saw out of the Dallas downfield passing game. Dak Prescott was a couple CeeDee Lamb drops from a 300-plus yard game in the opener and Mahomes had more than 235.5 yards in 10 games last season with the same mishmash receiving corps questions.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Vikings -4.5, Total 45.5
Prediction: Vikings 26-23
Prop Pick: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson over 3.5 receptions (-110, Bet365)
Robinson caught six passes for 100 yards in Week 1,and if Drake London (shoulder) winds up missing time or being limited Sunday night, his 15 targets are going to be spread around with backs picking up more target share. Noteworthy value on Robinson at +146 for five-plus catches was also available at FanDuel. If you can get a good number on Falcons WR Ray-Ray McCloud, he caught eight passes for 98 yards with a season-high 11 receptions at Minnesota in December 2024.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans
Monday, 7 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Texans -2.5, Total 42.5
Prediction: Texans 26-19
Prop Pick: Texans RB Nick Chubb longest run under 13 yards (-110, DraftKings)
Broken tackles and yards after contact are the route to success for Chubb. The Buccaneers wrapped up Robinson (12 carries, 24 yards) last week and Falcons’ running backs had a long gain of six yards.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, 10 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Chargers -3, Total 46.5
Prediction: Chargers 27-13
Prop Pick: Raiders QB Geno Smith over 244.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)
Until Ashton Jeanty gets more consistent alleys to attack, the plan for defenses was set by the Patriots last week: stack the box and shoot gaps to make Smith complete short, quick passes all the way down the field. The over of 31.5 pass attempts is equally inviting, but value is short at -140 at FanDuel.

–Field Level Media

New York Giants co-owner John Mara (left) and New York Giants General Manager, Joe Schoen, speak with New York Giants Head Coach, Brian Daboll, at MetLife Stadium before their team hosts the New England Patriots, Sunday, November 26, 2023.

Giants 2025 draft needs, picks, best fits, history

Posted on | by Field Level Media

When the Giants granted head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen a reprieve at the end of a 3-14 season, there were no assurances on the longevity of their employment.

It’s now or never in New York.

But getting back in the passing lane in the NFC East with gaping holes on either side of the ball is easier said than done.

The Giants were 30th in the NFL in total offense, 28th in passing offense and 24th in total defense last season.

New York was winless in the NFC East and 1-11 in the conference with a net-TD margin of minus-17.

Is there a quick fix in the 2025 NFL Draft?

The Giants have the third overall pick and three of the top 65 selections, but even more vacancies at critical positions.

–Team needs
Quarterback
Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston are place-holders at this stage in their careers. Will the Giants allow this GM and coach to cast a net for the next franchise QB?

Cornerback
Calling all playmakers. New York needs a lead cornerback to contend with the behemoths at wide receiver in the NFC East.

Defensive tackle
An anchor to stuff the run alongside DT Dexter Lawrence II is vital for the Giants to make a turnaround.

Best prospect fits
WR-CB Travis Hunter, Colorado
OLB-DE Abdul Carter, Penn State
NT Kenneth Grant, Michigan
RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State
QB Jalen Milroe, Alabama

2025 draft picks by round
Total picks: 10
By round (pick in round, overall pick)
1: 3, 3
2: 2, 34
3: 1, 65
3: 35, 99 (compensatory selection)
4: 3, 105
5: 16, 154 (from Seattle Seahawks)
7: 3, 219
7: 30, 246 (from Buffalo Bills)

History Lesson
–LB Carl Banks was the last player the Giants selected No. 3 overall (1984). Guard John Hicks was the third overall pick by the Giants in 1974.
–The Giants have drafted at No. 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 and 10 since 2015.

–Field Level Media

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) drops back to pass against the Iowa State Cyclones in the first quarter during the Pop Tarts bowl at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Titans 2025 draft needs, picks, best fits, history

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Soliciting a package of top-100 picks and repeating the sentiment in media sessions that the franchise is “open for business” didn’t bring a flotilla of trade offers to the Tennessee Titans.

So are the rebuilding Titans up a creek without a trade partner at No. 1?

Not exactly.

The franchise is armed with the top overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft and most signs point to selecting Miami quarterback Cameron Ward, but nothing is diecast at No. 1 given the uncertain history of the new decision-makers in the Titans’ power structure.

Options in the conversation beyond Ward, such as playmaker and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and pass rusher Abdul Carter, might be better fits for a team with a proven roster closer to contending.

Does Ward fit the pressing need at the QB position? Arguably, he does, rating as the only top 20 quarterback in the draft according to Field Level Media’s composite rankings.

Head coach Brian Callahan lived what he said is NFL truth: Franchise quarterbacks are priceless. Callahan helped develop Joe Burrow, the No. 1 pick of the Bengals in 2020. He also has many points of reference as a QB coach and coordinator to help measure the potential for Will Levis to develop after an erratic first year together.

Burrow’s only issues at the NFL level have been taking too many sacks (196 in his young career to date) — pinned mostly on a fragile front five — and the resulting injuries from the constant pounding (knee, calf, wrist).

General manager Mike Borgonzi was with the Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes was picked 10th in 2017 and experienced every season of his NFL brilliance before taking over in Nashville in January. The two most meaningful games Mahomes lost in his career were both blamed in large part on a leaky offensive line.

Borgonzi doesn’t want to leave that possibility open.

Previous GM Ran Carthon didn’t leave the cupboard bare. He selected two offensive linemen in the top 11 — Peter Skoronski in 2023 (11th overall) and JC Latham in 2024 (seventh overall) — and Borgonzi signed left tackle Dan Moore from the Steelers in free agency to solidify a group that could help keep the runway clear for Ward to lead a turnaround in Tennessee.

Team needs
Pass rusher
An interior pairing of 2024 second-rounder T’Vondre Sweat and Jeffery Simmons serves as a solid foundation, but the Titans’ 3-4 defense can’t function without a pass rusher. Harold Landry was more technique and persistence than explosive and twitchy, which is the order of the day for coordinator Dennard Wilson.

Quarterback
Will Levis being on the roster is a thinly clipped insurance plan for the Titans receiving a Herschel Walker- or Ricky Williams-type offer in the days before the draft. The job will go to a rookie and Ward has the maturity, makeup and live arm to be a quality NFL starter.

Wide receiver
Playmakers are in short supply with no surefire No. 1 receiver, no matter how optimistic the team claims to be about Calvin Ridley.

Best prospect fits
QB Cameron Ward, Miami
OLB Abdul Carter, Penn State
Edge Jalon Walker, Georgia
DE James Pearce Jr., Tennessee
WR Luther Burden III, Missouri

2025 draft picks by round
Total picks: 8
By round (pick in round, overall pick)
1: 1, 1
2: 3, 35
4: 1, 103
4: 18, 120 (from Seattle Seahawks)
5: 3, 141
5: 29, 167 (from Kansas City Chiefs)
6: 2, 178
6: 12, 188 (from Dallas Cowboys)

History Lesson
–The last time the franchise had the No. 1 pick was 1978. The then-Houston Oilers drafted Texas RB Earl Campbell.
–In three of the past five drafts and five of the past 10 years, the Titans used their first-round pick on an offensive lineman (2014, 2016, 2020, 2023, 2024).
–In 2015 with the No. 2 overall pick, the Titans drafted QB Marcus Mariota.

–Field Level Media

Nov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans running back Joe Mixon (28) signals after rushing for a first down during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Week 11 MNF: Cowboys-Texans Preview, Props & Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The battle of the Lone Star State plays out in primetime Monday night when the Texans visit the Cowboys, who are winless at home and trotting out backup Cooper Rush at quarterback with Dak Prescott done for the season.

Losing streaks usher each team into “Monday Night Football.” Houston coughed up a 23-7 lead against the Lions to suffer a second straight loss, while Dallas is winless in four consecutive games and starting a window of three games in 10 days.

The injury report is particularly critical. The Texans’ defensive line won’t have starters Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) and Folorunso Fatukasi (foot) available.

But Houston does welcome back wide receiver Nico Collins from an injured reserve stint due to a hamstring problem.

Dallas will have to navigate the rest of the season without Prescott, who required season-ending surgery for his hamstring issue. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb was a late addition to the injury report, though the team does expect him to play Monday.

Cowboys cornerbacks DaRon Bland (foot) and Jordan Lewis (neck) won’t see any action after being ruled out.

While the injury report is a big reason the Texans moved two points — from laying five points to -7 — this matchup might not be the slam dunk that some view it as on paper.

–Problems in Big D
Dallas was already in trouble even before the Prescott injury. Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones has drawn plenty of criticism for how he put the roster together.

Jones cited salary cap constraints as the reason for passing on signing running Derrick Henry at a cut rate during the offseason when he was available as a free agent, and didn’t even consider top-dollar signings such as Saquon Barkley.

The decision looks worse each week. Henry leads the league in yardage, yards per carry and touchdowns and Barkley is putting together an MVP highlight reel for the Eagles.

Jones even doubled down on his comments by saying that while Henry is having a great year with Baltimore, it’s unlikely that the nine-year veteran would’ve had similar success with the Cowboys because they run a different type of offense.

The problem with this statement is that Henry was successful as a straight-ahead runner for the Titans, and one has to expect that a Hall of Fame-level running back in peak condition can still get the job done in various schemes.

Dallas clearly had a void at running back after opting not to resign Tony Pollard. Henry might have been able to mask some of the deficiencies within the Cowboys’ offensive line, which has taken a step back relative to recent dominant front five groups.

Defensively, the Cowboys were always more of an opportunistic team that benefited from turnovers, which isn’t always a sustainable metric.

Nonetheless, even with their problems, I’m not sure they warrant the Cowboys catching seven points as home underdogs.

–Prop Stop
Joe Mixon has become the bread-and-butter option in the Houston offense.

With Collins back on the field and Dallas’ health concerns in the secondary, the Cowboys are certain to be on their heels anticipating C.J. Stroud will push the ball to Collins and Tank Dell.

It’s Mixon who could be in for a lunchpail shift Monday. That’s because Dallas has been steamrolled in the running game the past four games, allowing 173.5 yards per game.

Mixon has 24 carries or more in four consecutive games and five 100-yard rushing games despite missing three due to injury.

Prop pick: Joe Mixon 100+ rushing yards, +152 (FanDuel)

–A first-half wager worth considering
We’ll learn plenty about the Cowboys’ resolve Monday and over the next 10 days.

Whether they can put forth a better effort after last week’s 34-6 loss to the Eagles is not clear. Between Rush and Trey Lance, the Cowboys longest pass play went all of 10 yards. The Cowboys had 49 yards passing while averaging 2.6 yards per play.

It’s difficult to think that they can play much worse, and I know the public is lining up to fade them against the Texans.

We must note that teams have struggled to get back up to speed in their following game after facing the Lions. Detroit is known to be a very physical team, and its opponents are just 2-6 straight up and 0-8 against the spread in their next game.

Those numbers are certainly enough reason for me to pause on backing Houston.

However, Collins’ return should bring Houston juice.

With Collins on the field, Houston went 4-1. While losing Stefon Diggs to an ACL injury remains a colossal blow to the Texans, Collins is more than capable of occupying that No. 1 wide receiver position.

The Texans went scoreless for the final two quarters against the Lions, and I think there will be a concerted effort to get the offense up and running again with a fast start.

Houston ranks seventh in first-half scoring with 14.2 points per game, while the Dallas defense allows a league-worst 24.3 at home in this spot. They’ve given up points in 18 consecutive quarters, a sign of weary legs and lagging effort.

As a result, I prefer to pass on the points spread altogether and back the Texans to go over their first-half team total of 11.5 points.

Best bet: Texans 1H team total over 11.5 points (-112 at DraftKings)

–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

May 30, 2024; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) hands off to running back Saquon Barkley (26) during practice at NovaCare Complex. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

MNF Week 2: Falcons-Eagles Preview, Props, Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The Atlanta Falcons will be hoping for a dramatic turnaround from their Week 1 debacle with a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.

Philadelphia has had Atlanta’s number in recent years, winning four of the last five against the Falcons.

But new Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has a winning record against the Eagles (6-5). Cousins has struggled on “Monday Night Football” with a record of 3-10. On the other hand, Jalen Hurts is 4-4 on MNF, including a 24-7 win over Cousins when he was with the Vikings (Week 2, 2022).

Odds and Trends
Philadelphia opened as just a 4.5-point home favorite despite their strong performance in Week 1 vs. the Packers. But it didn’t take long for the line to move. Bettors can still find the Eagles at -5.5, while Atlanta’s supporters can find the Eagles at +6.5.

The Eagles and Falcons last met in Week 1 of the 2021 season, a game Philadelphia won 32-6. But Hurts and Cousins last faced off in 2023 when Cousins was with the Vikings in Week 2 (Thursday Night Football). Cousins threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns, but Hurts got the win 34-28.

Given how games unfolded Week 1, it comes as no surprise that the public is getting behind Philly. At BetMGM, 82 percent of the point spread tickets, and 88 percent of the money is on the Eagles.

But, according to an industry average, 47 percent of spread tickets are on Philadelphia and 53 percent on Atlanta. Moneyline bets heavily favor the Eagles, with 92 percent of the handle and 95 percent of tickets.

However, bettors are relatively split regarding the total: 56 percent of the money and 48 percent of tickets on the OVER (44 percent and 52 percent on the UNDER).

Recent history has favored the home team on MNF, 59-43, over the last five years. However, betting on the visiting team wasn’t a bad idea; they went 53-45-4 ATS. Favorites have gone 67-37 SU and 45-55-4 ATS since 2018.

Prop Picks
–Saquon Barkley, 2+ Touchdowns, +270 at FanDuel: He had three against the Packers in Week 1, two rushing and one receiving. It seemed like new OC Kellen Moore will make the most of his running back (while he’s healthy), especially near the goal line. There is no value in betting on his anytime odds, but it would not be shocking to see him get two vs. the Falcons.

–Jalen Hurts, O/U 39.5 Yards Rushing, -113/-113 at FanDuel: Running the ball is part of the reason Hurts is such a dangerous QB. But Kellen Moore seemed reluctant to call designed runs for Hurts in Week 1. On several of his 13 carries did not go for much since he looked for someone to throw to as long as he could.
With Barkley available to do the dirty work in the run game, expect less from Hurts. Take the UNDER.

Key Stats
Cousins is 12-20 in primetime games and 3-10 on MNF. However, while his win-loss record is not good, he has been. He ranks 12th in passer rating out of the 64 quarterbacks that have attempted 500+ passes in primetime games.

The News
Expectations were high for the Atlanta Falcons coming into the season. With skill position players like Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London, many viewed them as a team that needed competent quarterback play to succeed.

Enter Kirk Cousins.

While his teams have not seen much postseason success, his ability to get the ball moving on offense is undeniable, especially in the passing game. He played six seasons with the Vikings, starting 15+ in his first five. In those five, he threw for 4,000+ yards in four.

His best season may have been his first. He made history by becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 70 percent of his passes for 30 touchdowns and 4,000+ yards with ten interceptions (or fewer).

Fans in Atlanta probably hoped that would be the guy they’d see in Week 1. The offense sputtered as Cousins completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. He was sacked twice and threw two interceptions as the Falcons lost to the Steelers 18-10.

While it is no consolation, there were several mitigating factors. Week 1 was his first game back after missing the second half of the 2023 season with a torn Achilles. It was his first game on a new team, in a new offense with a new offensive coordinator, a new center, and new skill position players.

Thanks to his recovery, he did not have enough time to develop the level of familiarity necessary to play well on Sunday. But there is a bright side for Falcons fans — Cousins and the offense can only get better.

Can they improve enough to be competitive with the Eagles tonight?

Injury Report
Both teams have ruled out players for Monday night’s tilt. Hurts will be without his No. 1 wide receiver, A.J Brown (hamstring). Atlanta will not have cornerback Antonio Hamilton Sr. (groin) and linebacker Nate Landman (calf, quadriceps). Eagles receiver Johnny Wilson is listed as questionable.

Prediction
If Cousins and the Atlanta offense were clicking on all cylinders, this could be a competitive game. However, growing pains are expected, which should keep expectations low for the Falcons’ offense.

Without the offense giving them a break, the defense will get worn out after getting a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley. Hurts will miss Brown, but the Eagles have plenty of talented weapons at his disposal.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Falcons 13

–Field Level Media

Baltimore Ravens Jadeveon Clowney linebacker (24) pressures Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) in the second quarter at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

AFC Divisional Playoffs: C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes and inspired road dogs

Posted on | by Field Level Media

OK, OK, C.J. Stroud, we get it. You’re not a rookie anymore.

Leading the Houston Texans to a rout of the Cleveland Browns, Stroud bucked all the rookie-QB-in-the-playoffs trends, and did so convincingly.

And this showing came the NFL’s league-leading defense in the regular season. Cleveland allowed a league-best 270 yards per game — almost 20 yards fewer than the next-best team.

Is that enough to forge a winning play in this matchup with the AFC No. 1 seed in Baltimore?

Read on for our main AFC play and a bonus bet along with a player prop.

THE HEADLINER

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
When: Saturday.
Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC.
Odds: Ravens -9.5, total 43.5.

Reasons to bet the Texans against the AFC No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens must include more than just the eye test.

The odds-on NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, Stroud leads the Texans into this divisional round matchup as 9.5-point underdogs.

The Ravens are led by odds-on NFL MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, who is not infallible.

Over the past three seasons as a favorite of 3.5 points or more, he’s 6-16 ATS. It’s even worse when applying Saturday’s line.

Jackson is 1-8 ATS when leading a favorite of 7.5 points or more. Maybe he just enjoys a close game.

His playoff history is checkered, to put it kindly:

2018, lost to Chargers, 78.8 rating
2019, lost to Titans, 63.2 rating
2021, beat the Titans, 74.8 rating (Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill posted an 83 rating)
2021, Lost to Bills, 61.5 rating
2022, Did not play, injured.

Jackson is a true talent — the league MVP again very likely — and his legs might prove the difference Saturday.

But his playoff stats are what they are: a 1-3 record with three touchdown passes, five interceptions and a 55.9 completion percentage.

So if you’re talking perceived pressure, it’s all on Jackson and the Ravens; Stroud and the Texans come in waving wads of house money.

Here come the supporting (if selective) statistics to back our position:

Home favorites are just 42 percent against the spread (ATS) during the divisional round according to Action Network numbers over the past 20 years.

The No. 1 seeds are 35% ATS, and, fitting our narrative, if narrowly, are 10-25-1 ATS (29 percent) when they are favored by 10 points or fewer.

The most comfortable fit among the trends favoring Houston, however, is the “we don’t know any better” angle.

The Texans missed last season’s playoffs.

The Texans are the road team.

The Texans are rolling.

Per Action Network: Road teams that missed last year’s playoffs are 27-13 ATS (68 percent) in the past 40 divisional round games.

The bet: Texans +9.5.

BONUS PLAY

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS
(Consensus line: Bills -2.5)

Quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills have fought through must-win games for weeks. The mentality suits them well, as you can see by Buffalo hosting a division-round game.

Counterpart Patrick Mahomes has led a flawed offense most of the season and plays his first ever true road playoff game (no, Super Bowls don’t count).

This is not likely to be the aerial show of past iterations. We’re expecting more running plays and a tight contest. Mahomes has the stats to back up the oddsmakers’ number.

Mahomes is a guy who rarely needs extra fuel, but when his team is an underdog, watch out. He’s 7-3 when the Chiefs are the underdog, and 8-1-1 in those games against the spread.

He’s not likely to be on the short end of a blowout.

In their meeting earlier this season in Kansas City, the teams combined for 37 points.

Buffalo’s defense, dented by injury as a team can be, has actually performed better in recent weeks. We’ll allow that holding down the Steelers offense is no great accomplishment.

The Chiefs have been under the posted game totals in five of their past six games.

The bet: Tease two-leg parlay, Chiefs +7.5 with the under 51.5 (-125 a DraftKings).

PLAYER PROP

There’s no questioning the competitiveness of these QBs. They will exhaust every option Sunday, and will eagerly tuck it and run. Let’s exploit that fearlessness.

The bet: Two-leg parlay, Josh Allen 30 or more rushing yards with Patrick Mahomes 25 or more rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM).

–Field Level Media

Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) looks to throw a pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Catch a New Year’s Parlay: Dolphins, Niners and Rams in Week 17

Posted on | by Field Level Media

We hit our headliner with the Lions in Week 16 but dropped our Cowboys bet when the Dallas defense gave up a last-second field goal to the Miami Dolphins.

This week, we dare to fade the new MVP favorite and sprinkle in some California flavor for a tasty three-leg parlay.

See how this primary parlay wager developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders, 1 p.m. ET, 49ers -11

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET, Rams -6

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens, 4:25 p.m. ET, Ravens -3.5

(DraftKings)

Big, big win by the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas night. No doubt about it.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson leapfrogged erstwhile MVP favorite Brock Purdy and is atop the leaderboard for the spotlight NFL award.

Jackson must first deal with a form of Kryptonite: His team is a home favorite.

According to Action Network data, Jackson is 14-23 against the spread as a home favorite. Over the past 20 years, he ranks 211th out of 217 quarterbacks against the spread as home favorite.

The Ravens are at home — and favored — against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

Baltimore’s tough-guy linebacker Patrick Queen offered the Dolphins a bit of motivation this week, saying Miami’s offense uses “pretty stuff … gimmick stuff” and talking about the Ravens’ mindset “to come out and just hit people in the mouth.”

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel won’t have any trouble convincing his team to play hard.

“There’s always going to be something that you have to prove,” McDaniel said Wednesday. “A great thing about this profession … is you get an opportunity to define yourself every single game.”

We’ll boost the number to +10.5 and take Miami. To ensure decent value, we’ll add two legs and adjust those spreads, too.

First, the 49ers are in a “get right” game on the East Coast against the spiraling Washington Commanders. If we move the number from 11 down to “even,” we create a nice cushion.

San Francisco can’t coast just yet if it hopes to secure the top NFC seed and a first-round playoff bye.

To make this a plus-money parlay, we need the Rams.

LA is on the road as six-point favorites against the Giants. We secured a seat on the LA bandwagon weeks ago as the Rams secured better health and a great shot at the playoffs.

It’s Tyrod Taylor – not Tommy DeVito – at quarterback for New York but he’s not going to lift the Giants against LA, which certainly needs to win. And that’s the LA leg: the Rams to win the game (no point spread to cover).

The bet: Adjusted-line, three-team parlay.

Dolphins +10.5
49ers moneyline
Rams moneyline
(+102 at DraftKings.)

THEY SAID IT

“I believe we play better under pressure. I don’t think anybody plays like us. We just need to keep playing that way and keep playing the Raven way.”

— Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.

BONUS PLAY

Patriots at Bills, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Bills -13.5 (FanDuel).

Buffalo survived its lookahead game against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in a forgivable performance in the wake of the Bills’ pasting of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15.

But the defense is still addled by injury and ineffectiveness. The offense remains a revival in progress with the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs combo the most troublesome for Buffalo fans.

Diggs, undeniably a top pass-catching talent in the league, has failed to reach 50 yards receiving in five of the past six games.

The sputtering nature of the Bills offense now requires Allen – and running back James Cook – to contribute strongly on the ground.

The Patriots defense has not been the problem in New England this season and ranks among the top 10 in yards per drive allowed in 2023.

QB Bailey Zappe and the Pats’ offense found a couple of things that worked last week and could do just enough to rack up 14 or more points.

This betting number appears too big for a game in which the pressure lies squarely on the Bills.

The play: Patriots +13.5 (FanDuel).

PROP CORNER

This Rams road game at New York is a business trip, and the company leaders are primed to return a nice payout if you invest in their performance.

Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford provides the calm confidence needed in a game that carries some urgency.

The benefactors will be running back Kyren Williams and veteran receiver Cooper Kupp, who watched teammate Puka Nacua have a huge day last week.

It’s Kupp’s turn to show he still has the tools of a top target for Stafford.

Prop play: Three-leg adjusted parlay.

K. Williams 70+ rushing yards
C. Kupp 4+ receptions
C. Kupp 50+ receiving yards.
(-107 at FanDuel)

–Field Level Media

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love might find the Chargers' defense to his liking on Sunday. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Packers vs Chargers: Preview, Prop Pick, Prediction and bonus combo

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The race to be this season’s most disappointing quarterback began opening night when Danny Dimes (the New York Giants’ Daniel Jones) provided an epic effort in a 40-0 prime-time assault on viewers.

From Zach Wilson to Desmond Ridder to Jordan Love and Jimmy G, it’s been a favorite pastime for the pundits.

This weekend, we’ll try to speak a correction into existence: Stop the hate and support Love.

See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

Chargers at Packers, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Chargers -3, total 44

(DraftKings)

The Chargers are an entertaining, exciting offense and they probably offered up about a 90 percent on football’s Rotten Tomatoes entertainment reviews last week in a 41-38 home defeat against the Detroit Lions.

But that defense …

The Packers fan base was palpably beginning to turn against Love, who stepped in for Green Bay legend Aaron Rodgers this season.

Love, despite a decent Sunday (289 yards passing, two TDs, two INTs) in Pittsburgh’s hostile road environment, remains in the lower third of starting QBs in most key metrics. He’s 22nd in ESPN’s quarterback ratings.

A closer look showed some marked improvement from Love. The LA defense, coupled with the relative comforts of Lambeau Field, should bring Love some good vibes.

Green Bay’s receiving corps, perhaps boosted by the continued emergence of Jayden Reed (five catches for 84 yards including a touchdown last week), would help by making a few plays Sunday. The Chargers have given up huge chunk plays in the passing game.

Of the six Packers defeats this season, four were one-score games they fumbled on the road: at Atlanta (25-24), at Las Vegas (17-13), at Denver (19-17) and last week in Pittsburgh.

As for the second leg of our bet, there should be no question about this game’s potential for a shootout.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert lacks a quality offensive line but is certainly an elite NFL leader. He said he and his teammates remain confident following their season high in points last week.

The defense? It surrendered a season high in points.

Herbert has passed for 2,349 yards with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions.

“I think you just have to build off it,” Herbert said about the offense, adding, “We can move the ball pretty well and we can get things rolling.”

The Bolts’ offense will roll, and it will have to keep pace with what the defense allows Green Bay to do.

The play: Parlay the Packers teased to +7.5 with the over teased to 37.5 (at -105 odds, per DraftKings).

THEY SAID IT

“I just really love his mentality. I think he’s wired the right way mentally, in terms of just how he attacks it. Not that it’s always going to be perfect, but when he does make a mistake, there’s no flinch to him.” — Packers coach Matt LaFleur on rookie WR Jayden Reed

BONUS COMBO

Sick of (Josh) Dobbsmania yet? Give us one more week.

Vikings at Broncos, 8:20 p.m. ET

The line: Broncos -2.5, total 42.5 (DraftKings).

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has to be enjoying the game-plan process that now involves QB1 Josh Dobbs.

Minnesota’s season did not end with Kirk Cousins’ injury, and now the Vikings are favored to make the playoffs – so long as Dobbs stays upright.

The rejuvenated Vikings visit the tough Broncos defense Sunday night, but also the low-scoring Broncos offense. This seems like a nice recipe for a parlay.

Dobbs, released by Arizona as Kyler Murray became healthy, actually has some offensive assets now.

Denver was basically given its Week 10 victory in Buffalo and certainly needs to do more offensively against Minnesota, winners of five consecutive games.

Barring a couple of long TDs from Russell Wilson, the struggling Denver offense – coupled with its improving defense – should do enough to keep this score under the total.

Dobbs, meanwhile, should be good to provide enough key plays to cover the number.

The play: Two-leg same-game parlay teasing Vikings +7.5 with under teased to 45.5 (+108, per DraftKings).

PROP CORNER

Staying with the slugfest in Denver, we are going to enjoy Josh Dobbs for at least another week.

The Broncos’ invigorated defensive front is likely to pressure Dobbs into attempting to escape the pocket. That’s fine for this prop.

Dobbs has rushed six times or more in seven of his past eight games, and in addition to any scripted QB running plays, he’ll have to create some positive yards on scrambles.

Prop play: Vikings Josh Dobbs over 5.5 rushing attempts (+115 at BetMGM).

–Field Level Media

Oct 21, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Utah Utes running back Sione Vaki (28) carries the ball against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon vs. Utah: Preview, Props and Prediction

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The first College Football Playoff rankings are released on Tuesday, and it’s perhaps fitting to happen on Halloween.

While the clock won’t strike midnight and turn contenders into pumpkins just yet, the time is now for a few teams to turn up the intensity.

Oregon and Utah meet Saturday in what is almost certainly a CFP “loser out” matchup.

Despite a disappointing loss by USC at Notre Dame, the Pac-12 is enjoying a high-profile position in its final season as we know it. The rising tide has lifted all boats, including the Ducks and Utes.

Saturday’s matchup in Salt Lake carries realistic CFP implications in particular for the Ducks. With only one defeat, Oregon would likely be on the good side of a CFP final four vote if it wins out.

We have a tasty parlay for our betting choice along with news, notes and quotes.

–Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., ET
–Television: Fox
–Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City.
–Point Spread, Total: Oregon -6.5; Total 47.5

QUICK PICK
Among the myriad factors applied to the CFP ranking system is strength of schedule; not only the opponents, but the opponents of those opponents.

Follow me?

That means the Pac-12’s top half, five of whom are in this week’s AP Top 25, brings serious substance to conference contenders.

Oregon’s lone loss was at No. 5 Washington; Utah fell to No. 19 Oregon State – and upset USC last Saturday in Los Angeles.

In an atypical year – Pac-12 fans aren’t so readily able to complain about a lack of national respect – Oregon lost very little CFP traction in its 36-33 road defeat in Seattle.

The Action Network power ratings, for example, have the Ducks all the way up at No. 4. The ratings, according to Action, “aim to judge the true quality of a team based on advanced metrics, coaching changes, year-over-year roster continuity … and a host of other underlying components.”

Ducks QB Bo Nix, who sits sixth on the BetMGM Heisman futures list, faces a make-or-break Saturday but is skilled and experienced enough to handle the road pressure.

Bookmakers opened Oregon as a three-point favorite but saw the early money drive the spread past six points.

The Ducks now have enough video of Utah quarterbacks Bryson Barnes – who threw three TDs and rushed for 57 yards against USC – and backup Nate Johnson to cultivate a winning defensive scheme.

The pick: Oregon 27, Utah 21
The bet: Alternate spread/total: Oregon -2.5, Total over 41.5 (+100 at BetMGM).

THE NEWS

The Ducks have more firepower with an offense that ranks second nationally in scoring (47 points per game) and total offense (551.6 yards per game).

Nix, who made his NCAA-record 54th career start at quarterback last week, has passed for 2,089 yards, 19 touchdowns and one interception this season. That pick is the lone turnover committed by the Ducks, who have the fewest in the nation.

Utah is tied for third with just four turnovers.

The Utes rank 96th in scoring (23.4 ppg) and 98th in total offense (345.0 ypg). The attack has been spruced up by having standout safety Sione Vaki (tied for the team lead with 35 tackles) play on both sides of the ball.

Vaki caught two touchdown passes and compiled 217 yards last week in Utah’s 34-32 road victory over then-No. 18 Southern California. He caught five passes for 149 yards and rushed nine times for 68 more.

“The impact he makes on offense is actually bigger than the impact he has on defense,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said. “And he’s one of the best safeties in the country, so that tells you how valuable he has been for us.”

Utah ranks 11th in scoring defense (15.0 ppg) and 14th in total defense (295.4 ypg).

The Utes, No. 5 nationally in rush defense at 78 yards per game, face a daunting challenge in trying to execute a repeat performance on Ducks standout Bucky Irving.

Irving, who has rolled up 649 rushing yards this season, had just 20 yards on 10 carries in Oregon’s 20-17 home win over the Utes last season.

He scored three touchdowns last week against Washington State when he put up a season-best 129 yards and posted 127 rushing yards against Washington.

THEY SAID IT
“I would say his heart is pounding out of his chest. This dude is so passionate, he cares so much for his teammates and never goes down on first contact. Really selfless player, and I think that really shows up when you see this guy play on the field.”

–Oregon coach Dan Lanning on Ducks running back Bucky Irving

–Field Level Media

Sep 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Dalvin Cook (33) carries the ball asNew England Patriots linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley (8) defends during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 props: Will Jets give Dalvin Cook a look?

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Week 6 marks the end of the London games on the schedule, with the morning meeting between Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Bye weeks are in the mix again with four teams off last week and the Packers and Steelers off in Week 6.

Here are our top five player props for Week 6.

–Raiders tight end Michael Mayer under 18.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Mayer’s two catches for 39 yards in Week 5 equates to a breakout performance, considering he was targeted twice with one catch for 2 yards in his previous four games.

Mayer, active for all five games this season while playing at least 40 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, did see an increased snap count to 66 percent in Week 5.

We’re not convinced we can read too much into that.

After all, it was the first time this season that Mayer saw close to 10 percent more of the snaps than fellow tight end Austin Hooper.

The Raiders are coming off a game against a Packers team that ranks 17th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. This week, they’ll face a Patriots defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards (142) to tight ends.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick should be familiar with Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from his time in New England. Look for Belichick to try and take away the middle of the field and force Garoppolo to beat him outside the numbers.

–Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa under 31.5 pass attempts (+100 at BetMGM)
The Dolphins are the second-highest favorites on the board this week for several reasons. Carolina is still winless on the year and ranks 29th defensively in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric.

However, a closer look reveals that Carolina’s defensive frailty might have more to do with stopping the run.

The Panthers actually rank dead last in EPA (expected points added) against the run, but they’re ninth in EPA against the pass.

As a result, the Dolphins’ running game should be on prominent display.

Even with Miami’s standout rookie running back De’Von Achane set to miss the next four games with a knee injury, you can argue that there’s a bit of a plug-and-play aspect with the Dolphins’ ground game.

While Achane drew plenty of headlines with his 460 rushing yards through four games and 12.1 yards per carry, Raheem Mostert has also been productive with 5.4 yards per carry.

Chris Brooks will likely see more touches, and even though he only has nine carries on the year, he’s averaging 7.3 yards per rush.

With Miami being such heavy favorites at home against a team that struggles to stop the run, this doesn’t feel like a game where the Dolphins will have to rely on Tagovailoa’s arm to lead them to victory.

–Rams tight end Tyler Higbee under 3.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
After back-to-back games with five receptions, Higbee had two grabs on three targets in Week 5. But there was another critical development in their recent game against the Eagles as Cooper Kupp returned from injury.

Kupp missed the first four weeks due to a hamstring strain. In his first game back, he saw 12 targets and caught eight passes for 118 yards.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua left Van Jefferson expendable and he was traded to the Falcons.

Bettors can attribute some correlation here with Kupp’s return and a decline in Higbee’s production. There’s only one ball to go around, and we think Higbee will find himself even lower down the pecking order in Week 6.

–Breece Hall under 13.5 rush attempts (-125 at DraftKings)
Hall is fresh off a breakout game with 22 carries for 177 yards to help the Jets beat the Broncos. However, that performance came against a defense ranked dead last in defensive DVOA and 30th in EPA against the run.

This week, the Jets face an Eagles’ run defense currently ninth in EPA. While there’s no question that the Jets are stepping up in class, Hall’s heavy workload in Week 5 makes him even more of a fade candidate this week against the Eagles.

It’s worth noting that he didn’t register more than 12 carries in any of his first four games.

The Jets are as high as seven-point home underdogs, with the Eagles coming to town. And if they have to play from behind, the Eagles will likely force them into passing situations where they’ll have to abandon the run.

–Dalvin Cook over 13.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
We like correlated plays, and this one makes some sense: All in on Cook’s rushing prop to go over 13.5 yards.

We’re not asking for a ton of yardage here, as Cook has already gone over this number in four of five games this season.

The seventh-year pro is only averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and he’s at that age (28) where we tend to see some decline in production at the running back position.

However, Cook still has a role to play on this Jets team as he can help carry some of the load at running back with Hall only in his second season as a pro.

With coaches very mindful of the workload for their running backs game by game, look for some of Hall’s carries to go to Cook in Week 6.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media