Tag: prop bets

Inside NCAA Headquarters located in Indianapolis on Friday, March 10, 2023. Ncaa President Charlie Baker

NCAA ‘drawing line’ on gambling, wants player prop bets banned

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The NCAA wants states to ban player prop bets in college sports to protect both athletes and the “integrity of the game,” president Charlie Baker said Wednesday.

“Sports betting issues are on the rise across the country with prop bets continuing to threaten the integrity of competition and leading to student-athletes and professional athletes getting harassed,” Baker said. “The NCAA has been working with states to deal with these threats and many are responding by banning college prop bets.”

Last week, Cleveland Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff told reporters he had been threatened by gamblers last season.

“They got my telephone number and were sending me crazy messages about where I live and my kids and all that stuff,” Bickerstaff said. “So it is a dangerous game and a fine line that we’re walking for sure.”

Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton said recently that gamblers reach out to him directly on social media about prop bets, which involve the performance of individual players and not the team.

“To half the world, I’m just helping them make money on DraftKings or whatever,” he said. “I’m a prop.”

And Baker said that isn’t right.

“This week we will be contacting officials across the country in states that still allow these bets and ask them to join Ohio, Vermont, Maryland and many others and remove college prop bets from all betting markets,” Baker said. “The NCAA is drawing the line on sports betting to protect student-athletes and to protect the integrity of the game.”

Wagering on college sports is a multi-billion industry. The American Gaming Association issued its projection last week that said Americans will legally bet $2.72 billion on the 2024 men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments, equivalent to just 2.2 percent of the total amount of money legally wagered on sports in the U.S. in 2023.

–Field Level Media

Nov 20, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) runs the ball during the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 Prop Picks: Backup RBs on blast

Posted on | by Field Level Media

With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, all 32 teams have had their byes and a full slate of games is on the docket through Week 18.

There are plenty of options on the board if you’re shopping for player props.

Here are three we like on Sunday.

–Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
The emergence of Isiah Pacheco relegated Edwards-Helaire to a backup role in the Chiefs’ running back pecking order. However, Edwards-Helaire did get a chance to start in Week 14 against the Bills, as Pacheco was inactive due to a shoulder injury.

Edwards-Helaire wasn’t exactly convincing, rushing for 39 yards on 11 carries. His 3.5 yards per carry matched his season mark, perhaps suggesting that this is as good as it will get with the backup running back.

Edwards-Helaire couldn’t get much going against a Bills team that ranks 18th in the FTN Network’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

Next up for the Chiefs is a Patriots defense that sits atop the league using the same metric.

Given how the Chiefs run their offense, ranking 26th with a run play rate of 38.7%, I question whether there are enough carries for Edwards-Helaire to go over this prop.

–Ezekiel Elliott under 19.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
Elliott is coming off a season-high 22 carries, he ran for just 3.1 yards per carry. He was more effective out of the backfield, with 72 receiving yards on seven receptions.

I’ll expect him to regress to the mean against a Chiefs team that will be in a foul mood following their 20-17 home loss to the Bills.

Questions continue to linger about Kansas City’s wide receiver group, which has been underperforming despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City can get right against this Patriots pass defense that ranks 24th in Nfelo’s expected points added (EPA) metric.

Part of Elliott’s increase in usage in Week 14 might have more to do with how the game played out, given that New England jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter and held on for a 21-18 victory.

The Patriots are likely to be chasing the game against the Chiefs, making them less likely to prioritize a rushing attack with Elliott staying under his attempts prop.

–Mitch Trubisky over 4.5 rushing attempts (+114 at DraftKings)
At 7-6, the Steelers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC. Seating could change quickly given that four teams with identical records remain in the hunt for one of the three wild-card spots.

Pittsburgh is currently on a two-game losing streak and won’t have starting quarterback Kenny Pickett due to a high ankle injury. The Steelers will turn to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky when they desperately need a win to snap a two-game losing streak.

Thus, it’s imperative that the Steelers put together a strategy that suits Trubisky’s skillset. That game plan should include rolling Trubisky out of the pocket and calling some designed run plays for the quarterback.

His lone start this season was last week, and he carried the ball eight times. He’s had two other games where he didn’t start but took roughly half of the quarterback snaps and finished with three carries in each contest.

If Trubisky can play the entire game, I expect him to use his legs and go over this rushing prop. Note that this Colts defense can be vulnerable against the run, ranking 26th in both EPA and DVOA.

–Field Level Media

Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) dunks the ball over the goal post after scoring a touchdown Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Week 10 Prop Bets: Colts ride RB2 in Germany

Posted on | by Field Level Media

With the NFL regular season halfway in the books, it makes sense to take stock of how things have unfolded regarding player props. In Week 9, I highlighted the difficulty of finding an edge in this betting market as sportsbooks further sharpen their lines.

To understand how challenging this market can be, two of my quarterback prop selections failed to cash by three completions combined. Such is the risk when you play props to go over their projections.

I’m always a bit cautious when I find myself playing too many overs. You almost need a perfect game script to have things go your way.

The reality is that there are simply too many variables that go unaccounted for in prop projections-thus creating inherent value on the under.

For Week 10, I’ll try to put that theory to work by targeting the props with a decent chance to stay under their projections.

–Colts RB Jonathan Taylor under 17.5 rushing attempts (-120 at PointsBet)
After showing a willingness to part ways with Taylor, the Indianapolis Colts reversed course and signed the fourth-year pro to a three-year deal worth $42 million. Taylor began the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list while the Colts explored possible trade options.

However, the Colts felt the trade offers didn’t represent fair market value and ultimately kept the former All-Pro running back. Whether they were correct to extend Taylor isn’t a closed case.

A closer look at his year-over-year stats might point to regression.

After averaging five yards per carry in his rookie season and 5.5 yards in Year 2, Taylor averaged 4.5 yards in his third season.

This season, his rushing average is down to 4.1 yards per carry.

Zack Moss filled in admirably for Taylor when he missed the first four games of the campaign. Through eight games, Moss is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. That’s roughly the same mark (4.8 yards per carry) since the Bills traded him to the Colts last season.

Taylor averaged 2.6 rushing yards on 18 carries in the Colts’ Week 9 victory over the Panthers. And given how well Moss continues to run the ball, I expect him to eat into Taylor’s workload and take some carries away from him in Week 10.

–Saints TE Juwan Johnson under 25.5 receiving yards (-125 at PointsBet)
This is more of a math exercise.

Numbers point to this prop staying under: Johnson averages five receiving yards per target (19), as he’s likelier to see between three and four targets per game.

Foster Moreau, another Saints tight end, averages 9.58 receiving yards per target (12).

Johnson doesn’t just have to contend with only Moreau. Saints’ utility man, Taysom Hill, is also taking snaps at the tight end position.

Hill averages 5.68 receiving yards per target and catches 80 percent of the passes thrown his way compared to 68% for Johnson.

The Saints also have capable wide receivers in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Michael Thomas. Thomas failed to record a reception in his lone target against the Bears in Week 9.

Look for Thomas to play a more significant role in the offense this week, adding further credence to playing Johnson under his receiving prop.

–Browns RB Kareem Hunt over 23.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
As much as I wanted to target the props with the best chance to stay under this week, this is one where the numbers point the other direction.

Hunt was out of the league until the Browns swooped in and signed him following Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury in Week 2.

The Browns slowly worked Hunt into the mix, giving him five carries the following week in their 27-3 victory over the Titans. He got another five carries in their 28-3 loss to the Ravens in Week 4.

Since the Week 5 bye, Hunt has 10-plus carries in four consecutive games.

Given that the Browns sit third in the league with a run-play rate of 48.52%, he should get plenty of opportunities to carry the rock. Cleveland also utilizes Pierre Strong Jr. in the backfield, but he’s questionable with a hamstring injury and was limited in practice this week.

In the first meeting with the Ravens, the Browns suited up third-string quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and his three interceptions were a big reason why the game was so lopsided. In a closer rematch, Hunt gets extra work.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Sep 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Dalvin Cook (33) carries the ball asNew England Patriots linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley (8) defends during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 props: Will Jets give Dalvin Cook a look?

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Week 6 marks the end of the London games on the schedule, with the morning meeting between Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Bye weeks are in the mix again with four teams off last week and the Packers and Steelers off in Week 6.

Here are our top five player props for Week 6.

–Raiders tight end Michael Mayer under 18.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Mayer’s two catches for 39 yards in Week 5 equates to a breakout performance, considering he was targeted twice with one catch for 2 yards in his previous four games.

Mayer, active for all five games this season while playing at least 40 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, did see an increased snap count to 66 percent in Week 5.

We’re not convinced we can read too much into that.

After all, it was the first time this season that Mayer saw close to 10 percent more of the snaps than fellow tight end Austin Hooper.

The Raiders are coming off a game against a Packers team that ranks 17th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. This week, they’ll face a Patriots defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards (142) to tight ends.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick should be familiar with Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from his time in New England. Look for Belichick to try and take away the middle of the field and force Garoppolo to beat him outside the numbers.

–Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa under 31.5 pass attempts (+100 at BetMGM)
The Dolphins are the second-highest favorites on the board this week for several reasons. Carolina is still winless on the year and ranks 29th defensively in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric.

However, a closer look reveals that Carolina’s defensive frailty might have more to do with stopping the run.

The Panthers actually rank dead last in EPA (expected points added) against the run, but they’re ninth in EPA against the pass.

As a result, the Dolphins’ running game should be on prominent display.

Even with Miami’s standout rookie running back De’Von Achane set to miss the next four games with a knee injury, you can argue that there’s a bit of a plug-and-play aspect with the Dolphins’ ground game.

While Achane drew plenty of headlines with his 460 rushing yards through four games and 12.1 yards per carry, Raheem Mostert has also been productive with 5.4 yards per carry.

Chris Brooks will likely see more touches, and even though he only has nine carries on the year, he’s averaging 7.3 yards per rush.

With Miami being such heavy favorites at home against a team that struggles to stop the run, this doesn’t feel like a game where the Dolphins will have to rely on Tagovailoa’s arm to lead them to victory.

–Rams tight end Tyler Higbee under 3.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
After back-to-back games with five receptions, Higbee had two grabs on three targets in Week 5. But there was another critical development in their recent game against the Eagles as Cooper Kupp returned from injury.

Kupp missed the first four weeks due to a hamstring strain. In his first game back, he saw 12 targets and caught eight passes for 118 yards.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua left Van Jefferson expendable and he was traded to the Falcons.

Bettors can attribute some correlation here with Kupp’s return and a decline in Higbee’s production. There’s only one ball to go around, and we think Higbee will find himself even lower down the pecking order in Week 6.

–Breece Hall under 13.5 rush attempts (-125 at DraftKings)
Hall is fresh off a breakout game with 22 carries for 177 yards to help the Jets beat the Broncos. However, that performance came against a defense ranked dead last in defensive DVOA and 30th in EPA against the run.

This week, the Jets face an Eagles’ run defense currently ninth in EPA. While there’s no question that the Jets are stepping up in class, Hall’s heavy workload in Week 5 makes him even more of a fade candidate this week against the Eagles.

It’s worth noting that he didn’t register more than 12 carries in any of his first four games.

The Jets are as high as seven-point home underdogs, with the Eagles coming to town. And if they have to play from behind, the Eagles will likely force them into passing situations where they’ll have to abandon the run.

–Dalvin Cook over 13.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
We like correlated plays, and this one makes some sense: All in on Cook’s rushing prop to go over 13.5 yards.

We’re not asking for a ton of yardage here, as Cook has already gone over this number in four of five games this season.

The seventh-year pro is only averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and he’s at that age (28) where we tend to see some decline in production at the running back position.

However, Cook still has a role to play on this Jets team as he can help carry some of the load at running back with Hall only in his second season as a pro.

With coaches very mindful of the workload for their running backs game by game, look for some of Hall’s carries to go to Cook in Week 6.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Jan 2, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Wildcard TD props: A pick for 6 in every game

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Wildcard Weekend, one of the most exciting weekends of the year in the NFL, offers six games to determine the divisional round matchups.

Betting opportunities are plentiful as each playoff game is in a standalone timeslot.

We evaluated all six games and came up with one touchdown scorer prop we like in every matchup.

–AFC wildcard game at Cincinnati
Las Vegas Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals
My favorite touchdown pick is Joe Mixon, but at -165 odds, it’s not the best option as a straight bet.

Mixon is the clear RB1 in Cincinnati, leading the team in red zone usage by a sizable margin. He has 51 total looks, and the next closest option inside the 20 has 13.

The Raiders allow 1.35 touchdowns per game to running backs, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Mixon to score once is a great option in a parlay.

Data shows the Bengals’ offense is the best spot to target, given the defensive vulnerabilities of the Raiders, and the position group of interest keeps coming back to RB. The Raiders are stingy against wide receiver scoring.

Mixon scored twice against the Raiders earlier this year, and the numbers suggest that could happen.

Best Bet: Joe Mixon to Score 2 TDs (+380 on FanDuel)

–AFC wildcard game at Orchard Park, N.Y.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
This is the third matchup between the AFC East rivals since Dec. 6. The first game in Buffalo was a low-scoring affair due to heavy winds, while the second contest showcased more scoring. The Bills won at Foxborough on Dec. 26 by a 33-21 count.

Weather isn’t expected to be a major factor, but the projected temperature at kickoff is 3 degrees.

Something about the playoffs and big games tends to get Josh Allen moving with his legs, and it’s here we’ll focus on a touchdown prop bet.

In four postseason games, Allen has averaged 59.25 rushing yards, scoring once. Allen has also been the leading rusher for Buffalo in both games against New England this season.

With six rushing touchdowns on the year, Allen has comfortably demonstrated the ability to get in the end zone with his legs. I like him to do it again. The past two seasons, Allen has rushed for a touchdown in 9 of 19 home games, good for a 47% rate.

Best Bet: Josh Allen TD (+180 on DraftKings)

–NFC wildcard game at Tampa, Fla.
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
No team allows more touchdowns to tight ends than Philadelphia.

That would suggest Rob Gronkowski is in for a big game, and he’s no stranger to postseason success. Gronk’s odds on FanDuel are +125, a solid option.

We turn our attention to the Eagles’ side, instead, and namely quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Hurts has 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 games this season, and scored twice against Tampa Bay in their previous meeting.

The Philly running back group has some question marks. Miles Sanders has a broken hand and Jordan Howard has been nursing a stinger and looking less effective of late.

Hurts is the constant in this rushing attack with an innate nose for the goal line. His odds are solid at major sportsbooks, but slightly better on FanDuel.

Best Bet: Jalen Hurts TD (+220 on FanDuel)

–NFC wildcard game at Arlington, Texas
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
The highest projected total of the weekend should bring plenty of touchdowns, as two of the more explosive offenses in the NFL face off on Sunday afternoon.

Both offenses should have an edge when they see the field. Dallas averages the sixth-most passing attempts per game and will get a vulnerable San Fran secondary.

The Niners have been running at will for most of the season and get a Cowboys run defense that comes in ranked as a below-average unit on both Pro Football Focus and DVOA.

It’s hard to ignore the consistency of Deebo Samuel, who has scored at least once in 7 of his last 8 games.

Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, Samuel gets the ball no matter where the 49ers are on the field.

You’d like better odds, but sometimes it’s best to follow reliability.

Best Bet: Deebo Samuel TD (-115 on DraftKings)

–AFC wildcard game at Kansas City, Mo.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is the largest favorite this weekend, which can be read in a few ways. On one hand, the Chiefs should be able to put up points, which makes honing in on their offense the safe path.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh is likely to be throwing throughout the game as they play catch up, which gives us a positional group of focus.

On paper, the Chiefs’ biggest advantage is on the ground, but betting on this backfield has been a frustrating endeavor all season. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams and even Derrick Gore getting touches, it feels like a dart throw to guess which one finds the end zone.

Pittsburgh pass-catchers seem certain to be busy, namely Diontae Johnson.

Johnson is Big Ben’s top target and had seven red-zone targets the past three games.

The Chiefs have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns per game to WRs, further supporting this angle.

Johnson scored just three weeks ago against this same Kansas City defense, and I’ll be betting on him to do it again.

Best Bet: Diontae Johnson TD (+180 on DraftKings)

–NFC wildcard game at Inglewood, Calif.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Wild Card Weekend extends to Monday Night, where we’ll be treated to a third game between the Cardinals and Rams.

No team allows more wide receiver touchdowns than Arizona. In eight regular-season home games, Los Angeles has thrown 21 touchdowns and ran in just two.

Cooper Kupp is the preferred pick here if you parlay your touchdown picks, but at -165, that’s poor value on a straight bet. We will mention here that Kupp has scored 16 touchdowns this season, with 1+ in 11 of 17 games this season.

To secure better odds, we’ll shift to Odell Beckham. Since the Rams bye week in Week 11, OBJ has found the end zone in 5 of 7 games, including against these Cardinals.

Beckham is second among Rams pass-catchers in red zone targets since Week 12 and should have the opportunities Monday.
Best Bet: Odell Beckham TD (+140 on DraftKings)

If you wanted to shoot for the stars with a touchdown parlay, the above six picks — including Mixon to score once — combine for +16284 odds on DraftKings.

–By Griffin Carroll (@griffybets), Field Level Media

Dec 26, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud (14) catches a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Week 18 TD Props: Something to parlay for

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The final full NFL Sunday of the year is here.

We pegged down a handful of winners last week, so let’s finish the regular season strong with touchdown scorer props in Week 18.

Here are five of my favorite touchdown bets this weekend in the NFL.

Steelers WR Ray-Ray McCloud: +450 on BetMGM
McCloud of the Pittsburgh Steelers has not yet scored this season, but the receiver is seeing consistent volume near the goal line. McCloud had five red zone targets last week and has seen at least one target in the red zone in four straight weeks.

You’ll see as a likely constant throughout this piece is a preference for games that matter. The last week of the NFL season sometimes gets funky, with young players seeing more snaps and starters getting pulled.

Luckily, this game is not one of those cases, with both the Steelers and Ravens still alive in the postseason race.

Speaking of the Ravens, few defenses have struggled slowing down receivers quite like Baltimore this year. Only four teams have allowed more touchdowns to WRs than the Ravens, so there’s going to be opportunities for a Pittsburgh pass-catcher in this one.

I’ll take a chance on McLoud to finally score at +450.

Ravens WR Marquise Brown: +190 on BetMGM
Let’s stick with this game for a moment and load up Marquise Brown. The best odds are once again at BetMGM, with DraftKings/FanDuel closer to +150.

Tyler Huntley will be starting for the third time in four weeks to wrap the season for the Ravens, who as mentioned are still alive and will be fighting to win.

In Huntley’s two most recent starts, Brown has seen 14 and 8 targets, and should once again be heavily involved in the passing game.

Pittsburgh let up the eighth-most touchdowns per game to WRs.

49ers RB Elijah Mitchell: +140 on FanDuel
The 49ers are in an important game against the Rams, with their wildcard hopes on the line. We turn to Mitchell, as LA has been more generous to rushing scores, ranking second-best in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed.

Mitchell returned in Week 17 and commanded the work out of this backfield, taking 21 carries for 119 yards. While he didn’t score, Mitchell did find the end zone in his two previous starts. I like the +140 odds here.

Two-Leg Parlay: Devin Singletary and D’Onta Foreman TDs (+203 on FanDuel)
I’m combining these two picks to give us favorable odds, since both come in closer to -140 on their own.

Let’s start with Singletary of the Bills, who will play the Jets.

I’ve been betting running backs to score against New York on a weekly basis, as no team allows more touchdowns to the position than the Jets (1.63 per game).

Singletary has taken hold of the top running back position in Buffalo and has a whopping 20 red zone looks in the past three weeks.

He’s also scored four touchdowns in the past three weeks, momentum I like seeing in a parlay.

Now for Foreman. He too gets himself a soft opponent in Houston, who allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game.

Foreman is averaging 3.4 red zone looks per game in his last five, scoring in three of four.

Both running backs have established roles near the end zone, soft opponents, and perhaps most importantly, something to play for.

Buffalo clinches the AFC East with a win and Tennessee secures the coveted first round bye with a win. Love this play.

Chargers TE Jared Cook: +240 on FanDuel
Speaking of games that matter, there isn’t a more cut-and-dry example than the Chargers-Raiders on Sunday Night Football. It’s win and you’re in for these two teams.

It’s always good to get a touchdown scorer prop in for SNF to have a rooting interest for the final game of the day, and Cook has us covered.

The Raiders allow the third-most touchdowns to tight ends, and Cook is back after spending a week on the COVID list.

Cook sees a steady stream of targets from Justin Herbert, with 5+ in three straight games. He’ll get his chances on Sunday against this Raiders defense, and with their defensive attention likely diverted to Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, I like Cook to slip through the cracks and score.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

Dec 26, 2021; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn (21) runs for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Carroll: Top Week 17 TD Scorer Prop Bets

Posted on | by Field Level Media

It’s Week 17 in the NFL regular season, and it’s time once again to scan the board to find our favorite touchdown scorer props for the weekend.

There are some advantageous matchups worth a look, and here are seven scorers I like for Sunday’s slate.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn: +270 on FanDuel
We have just two more weeks to continue betting running back touchdowns against the New York Jets, who allow a league-high average of 1.74 touchdowns per game to the running back position.

This week, it’s the Buccaneers’ Vaughn who offers the best value. Ronald Jones is the starter, but his odds are closer to -150.

Vaughn played 36percent of the snaps in the first game since Leonard Fournette’s injury and scored a long touchdown.

He should continue seeing carries, and at these odds, I think this is strong value.

Trey Lance: +125 on PointsBet
Lance is expected to make the start this weekend with Jimmy Garoppolo doubtful. Lance gets himself a great opponent to work against in the lowly Houston Texans.

Houston allows the second-most rushing touchdowns per game, and Lance brings a mobility that the Niners are likely to utilize.

In Lance’s one start this year, he had a rushing touchdown, so let’s go ahead and load up a repeat performance.

A 49ers running back is another fine option here, and Elijah Mitchell (knee) is expected to play.

Rashaad Penny: +130 on DraftKings
I’m surprised we’re getting this at plus-odds, and it’s a great bet to take on its own or include in a touchdown parlay.

In the four consecutive games in which Rashaad Penny has received double-digit carries, he has scored three times.

Detroit has been another defense we’ve targeted all year due to their generosity towards running back scoring (1.53 TDs allowed per game).

Penny is the top back in Seattle and should see his chances to find the end zone. I love these odds.

John Bates: +650 on BetMGM
If you don’t recognize this name, it’s understandable. Bates is a tight end for Washington and has quietly been the Football Team’s top TE for the past seven weeks.

Bates is playing roughly 75 percent of the snaps and seeing a few targets each game. This weekend he’ll get Philadelphia, which has been extremely vulnerable to TE touchdowns.

The Eagles are tied with the most touchdowns allowed to the position at 11, and four of the past five weeks a tight end has scored against the Eagles.

At +650, this is worth a flier.

Kenny Golladay: +300 on DraftKings
I’ll admit, this one is ugly, but hear me out! Golladay has failed to score a touchdown all season, so there isn’t a performance trend to back this pick up.

However, Golladay is the last man standing in New York. Kadarius Toney is out. Sterling Shepard is out. Darius Slayton is out. Collin Johnson is out. John Ross is out.

There’s no one else!

The Giants play the Bears this weekend, who allow the second-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. If ever there was an opportunity to find the end zone, it’s this week.

At +300, it’s worth your consideration.

Hunter Renfrow: +190 on FanDuel
Renfrow has one of the steadiest roles on this Las Vegas offense. While his playing time tends to cap out at around 60 percent of the snaps, he has received red-zone targets in three straight weeks, and leads the team’s pass-catchers in looks near the goal line.

This is a must-win game for the Raiders and their playoff hopes, and the Colts allow the third-most touchdowns per game to receivers.

I like Renfrow’s odds here.

Michael Gallup: +210 on FanDuel
I admit that I’ve included Gallup in this column a lot recently, and he has failed to score in three straight weeks.

With that established, I’m keeping the faith that this man offers strong value to score for Dallas this weekend.

For starters, the Cowboys play the reeling Cardinals, who allow the most touchdowns to wide receivers.

Gallup had two red-zone targets last week and is seeing the field a lot for this offense. He brings the best odds among the three receivers, so I’m giving him another chance.

It helps that this game is the highest over/under of the weekend. We should see plenty of scores.

That’ll do it for this week’s top touchdown picks! Let’s have ourselves a profitable Week 17.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.

Nov 14, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) reacts after making a first down in the first quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Carroll: Top Week 16 TD Scorer Prop Picks

Posted on | by Field Level Media

We have just three full weeks of NFL action left, and it’s important we make the most of it.

With established roles, an uptick in volume or a soft defense, all of the following players offer solid value to find the end zone this weekend.

Here are nine touchdown scorer props I like in Week 16.

Rob Gronkowski: +130 on DraftKings
There’s going to be an influx of volume up for grabs in Tampa Bay with Chris Godwin suffering a season-ending torn ACL. Not only was Godwin seeing a hefty amount of targets, he also ranks second in the NFL in red-zone looks this season among WRs.

It’s for that reason we turn to Gronk, who has plus-odds at DraftKings compared to -120 on FanDuel.

Gronk saw 11 targets last game and has scored six times this season. The Panthers rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to allowing tight end touchdowns.

After getting shut out by New Orleans, I like to think Tom Brady will look to his ol’ reliable, Gronk.

Van Jefferson: +190 on DraftKings
The Vikings have been one of the most generous defenses to wide receiver success this season, letting up the most yards per game and the fifth-most touchdowns to the position.

Jefferson seems entrenched as the WR2 for the Rams offense and offers much better value than Cooper Kupp (-175).

Playing 80-90 percent of the snaps and seeing steady targets, Jefferson is a solid option to score on Sunday.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: +210 on DraftKings
St. Brown has been rolling for Detroit, going for 73-plus yards in three consecutive games and scoring a touchdown in two of them.

The Falcons let up the third-most touchdowns to WRs, and Detroit is once again likely to be throwing plenty. This is the best value I see for a Lions player.

Pharaoh Brown: +500 on DraftKings
No team allows more touchdowns to tight ends per game than the Chargers. Brown plays the most of all Texans tight ends, and leads the group in targets.

This is a bit of a longshot, but that’s what makes touchdown props so fun. The Chargers’ defense has shown some vulnerabilities through the air, so if the Texans can move the ball at all, Brown offers a potentially really solid return at +500.

Joshua Kelley: +380 on DraftKings
It appears Austin Ekeler will be out this weekend due to his placement on the COVID-19 list. In his stead will be Justin Jackson and Kelley, and Kelly’s odds are significantly better than Jackson’s -105 odds.

The Texans allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game and Kelley has five red-zone looks in his past two games.

With a proven role in this offense near the goal line, I like Kelley’s chances.

Albert Okwuegbunam: +390 on Caesars
Okwuegbunam is the second tight end on Denver, but seeing steady target volume (around 5 per game), and playing around 40 percent of the offensive snaps.

Across from the Broncos is the Raiders, who allow the third-most touchdowns per game to tight ends and have struggled defending them all season.

Noah Fant is +215 to score, another solid option considering he’s the starter, but I like the +390 shot here in a soft matchup.

James Robinson* to Score 2 TDs: +600 on DraftKings
Robinson is currently questionable, and if he can’t go, I like Dare Ogunbowale in his place for the reasons listed below.

The logic here is simple: no team is allowing more touchdowns to running backs than the New York Jets. It’s truly not close, either – the Jets’ 1.79 TDs allowed per game to running backs is sizably more than the rest of the league.

Just last week, Duke Johnson found the end zone twice. Now we get one of the sturdiest betting options in the running back market with Robinson.

Robinson played his highest amount of snaps since Week 6 and found the end zone last week. I expect him to have plenty of opportunities against this porous New York defense.

Mike Davis: +290 on DraftKings
Speaking of defenses that allow a lot of scores to running backs, Detroit is right behind the Jets, allowing an average of 1.57 touchdowns per game from opposing runners.

Instead of betting on Cordarrelle Patterson at -165 odds, I’m rolling with Davis at +290.

Davis sees a role in this Falcons offense and has a red zone carry in three straight games. The disparity in odds is worth our consideration, and I love this value.

Michael Gallup: +180 on Caesars
Gallup has seemingly become the second wide receiver in Dallas, playing 82 and 92 percent in the past two games, respectively, with both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper in the lineup.

Despite the playing time splits, Gallup has the longest odds to score, and thus he becomes a value play against a Washington defense seeing the sixth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers.

Gallup is averaging 8.2 targets per game in his past five games, and few teams throw as often as Dallas. Plenty of opportunities await the wide receiver in this NFC East battle on Sunday night.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.

Nov 14, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver James Washington (13) can not catch a pass as Detroit Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye (24) defends during the third quarter at Heinz Field. The game ended in a 16-16 tie. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Griffin Carroll: Top Week 15 TD Prop Bets

Posted on | by Field Level Media

What a crazy week of NFL news and rescheduling. The fluctuating schedule briefly delayed sportsbooks from posting betting lines, but we’re all set now.

On what is a shortened NFL Sunday slate of games, I’ve still found a few touchdown scorers I like.

Myles Gaskin: +160 at Caesars
My favorite bet of the day, and the odds variance between Caesars, DraftKings and FanDuel is significant. At FanDuel, Gaskin is -165, so this difference between sportsbooks is extremely noteworthy!

The pick here starts with targeting the Jets, who let up the most touchdowns per game to running backs. Their defense has been a steady constant in these articles, allowing 1.77 touchdowns per game to the RB position.

In comes Gaskin, back from the COVID-19 list. He has three or more red-zone looks in five consecutive games and should have his opportunities against the Jets.

With a steady role, solid odds and a weak opponent, this is a strong bet to get your NFL Sunday started off right.

James Robinson: +105 on DraftKings
Shed of Urban Meyer, and with Carlos Hyde out, Robinson is in a terrific spot to score a touchdown against a hapless Texans defense.

Houston allows the second-most rushing touchdowns per game to running backs (1.15), and Robinson should reestablish his role as the top back on this Jacksonville team.

Robinson leads the Jaguars in red-zone looks with 21 this season. He has seven touchdowns on the year and I like his chances to make it eight after Sunday.

James Conner: -125 at BetMGM
This isn’t the typical plus-odds I like to find when placing my touchdown bets, but this is strictly a mis-priced bet on BetMGM.

DraftKings and FanDuel both put Conner closer to -200 odds to find the end zone against the Lions, so this is another disparity worth targeting as we continue down running back TD props.

Conner has scored in seven straight games and has 16 on the season.

Meanwhile, Detroit allows running backs to score 1.7 touchdowns per game, including four last week to Denver runners.

With the clear red zone role on a team that should go up big against the Lions, these are odds I can’t ignore.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: +275 at BetMGM
Staying with this Lions-Cardinals game for a moment, I see some terrific value for St. Brown, who has quickly become one of Jared Goff’s favorite targets, seeing 12 targets in back-to-back weeks.

No clearer is that connection than in the red zone, where St. Brown has a target in consecutive games, and leads the group of WRs on the team with eight this season.

With T.J. Hockenson now out for the year and D’Andre Swift still on the shelf, there are a lot of targets still up for grabs.

In a game they’re likely to be trailing, the volume should be there for plenty of Goff throws. No team allows more touchdowns per game than Arizona.

CeeDee Lamb: +145 at FanDuel
One of the biggest gaps in quality of units this week is between the Dallas offense and New York Giants defense, so it’s a great game to load up a touchdown prop.

I’ve got my eyes on CeeDee Lamb, who has seen 23 targets in his past two games and is solidifying himself as the top receiver for Dak Prescott.

The Giants allow 1.23 touchdowns per game to wideouts, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.

Lamb should have his chances, and is one of my favorites to score twice. Odds for that are currently +1000 at FanDuel.

James Washington: +480 at FanDuel
I’d like to end with a longshot, so we’ll feature the Steelers’ Washington.

I came to Washington for the matchup first. The Titans have been extremely generous to wide receiver production this season, and only two teams throw more often than Pittsburgh does.

The volume is going to be there for some big games from Steelers WRs. I think both Diontae Johnson (+140 at DK) and Chase Claypool (+240 at DK) are strong candidates to score, but the fun of touchdown props is locking in a longshot.

So, back to Washington. He has six red-zone targets this season, plays roughly 40 percent of the snaps and has seen 3.6 targets per game in his past five.

He has scored twice this season, including just last week, so I say we let him keep it rolling against a very soft Titans secondary.

–Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.

Jan 3, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians (L) and quarterback Tom Brady (12) talk prior to the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday NFL wildcard playoff picks, predictions and props

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Six playoff games on NFL wildcard weekend present unprecedented betting options for the opening round of the postseason.

There is a little bit of everything on the table and nearly unlimited volume.

Field Level Media identified a few numbers of note entering the tournament with a breakdown of Saturday’s tripleheader:

Saturday, January 9
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Buffalo Bills (13-3)
1:05 p.m. ET
Line: Bills -6.5 (-118)
Over/Under: 51.5

Preview: Buffalo is one insane DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary catch away from entering this game on a 10-game winning streak. Underrated? We think so. Of all the early lines released Sunday night, the Bills at home, with fans in the stands, was the eye-catcher.

Prediction: Bills 29, Colts 17

Player prop (via PointsBet): Colts RB Jonathan Taylor under 83.5 rushing yards, -115

Bills head coach Sean McDermott remains a major advocate of pressuring the quarterback, and the philosophy is prone to bringing the ball toward the Buffalo secondary. We like the Bills D/ST anytime TD bet a bit, too, for this same reason.

What’s this mean for Taylor?

If Colts quarterback Philip Rivers becomes flustered and Buffalo wins the takeaway battle, this game is over by halftime with a score that means Taylor’s time for running the ball has ended, too.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
4:40 p.m. ET
Line: Seahawks -4
Over/Under: 42.5

Preview: Jared Goff’s status could swing the line significantly, but the number is trending toward the Rams early in the week. It dropped again Tuesday, and the reason boils down to LA’s defense dominating the Seahawks. Russell Wilson was sacked 11 times and had two interceptions in two regular-season meetings. His 74.1 passer rating vs. LA was lower than against any other 2020 opponent. Even so, will the Rams be able to move the ball?

A rookie quarterback — John Wolford — playing at Seattle in the playoffs essentially hands the Seahawks the play script from Sean McVay’s mitts — run right, run left, run middle — and a slow start would be a very slippery slope for the Rams to navigate.

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Rams 20

Player prop (via PointsBet): Russell Wilson anytime TD, +450.

There is nothing to save for next week, and that whatever-it-takes mentality will be evident in Wilson’s approach. Wilson has 25 touchdowns and two interceptions at home this season, but his history against All-Pro DT Aaron Donald indicates he could be on the move more than usual. Wilson had 69 rushing yards, averaged 6.3 yards per carry and one of his two rushing TDs against the Rams in 2020.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) at Washington Football Team (7-9)
8:15 p.m. ET
Line: Tampa Bay -8.5
Over/Under: 45

Preview: Tom Brady has the Buccaneers back in the playoffs for the first time since 2007 and Saturday night will be his latest opportunity to beat an NFC East team in the postseason (he’s 0-3). At 43, Brady pilots a dangerous offense. He’s also a statue in the pocket with limited to zero mobility, which is leading some to speculate this could be the upset special of wildcard weekend. While the Washington Football Team defensive line is completely loaded, including rookie Chase Young, the secondary isn’t.

If Brady is willing to revert to the take-what’s-given approach early in the game, we like Tampa to roll by double digits.

If not … Ron Rivera was the head coach of the last seven-win playoff team, and his 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers upset the Arizona Cardinals. Rivera is 2-0 against Arians in the postseason. The Panthers also drubbed the Cardinals, 49-15, in the NFC championship game before losing Super Bowl 50 to the Broncos.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Washington 16

Player prop (via PointsBet): WFT WR Terry McLaurin over 75 receiving yards, -106

With Washington in comeback mode, McLaurin won’t be pressed at the line and a 5-100 type of line is entirely within reach.

–Field Level Media