Tag: prop bets

Feb 4, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts speaks with the media during a press conference at Hilton New Orleans Riverside. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Wagers have been pouring in at sportsbooks since the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles clinched their spots in Super Bowl LIX, to be played Sunday in New Orleans. If you decide to move past the Super Bowl squares this year and wager in a different fashion, there’s still time to put at least a few dollars on the Big Game.

But what has changed in terms of betting since the Chiefs and Eagles booked their tickets? A lot actually. And it continues to change.

Super Bowl LIX: The Odds

The opening betting line for Super Bowl:
Point spread: Chiefs -1.5; Eagles +1.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -120; Eagles +100
TOTAL: O/U 49.5

The line briefly moved to +/-2 after the opening odds were posted, but the line settled back down at +/-1.5 by the next morning, where it remained for the next week. But on Monday of this week, after sharp bettors got behind the Eagles, the spread dipped down to +/-1 at a couple of sportsbooks.

Sharps also got behind the under, causing it to dip down to 48.5 at some sportsbooks.

As of Wednesday morning, the moneyline stood at Chiefs -115, Eagles +110.

John Murray, executive director at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN the Eagles could end up being the betting favorite by kickoff.

“The consensus opinion in our risk room is that Philly will go off favored. Call it an educated guess,” he said. “We have been wrong about that before and could be wrong this time, but we think the Eagles will get there over the course of this week.”

We’ll see come Sunday if he’s right.

Super Bowl LIX: How’s the Public Betting?

“Fade the public.”

“Follow the money.”

If you bet long enough, you are bound to get advice that both strategies are the way to go. Without advising one strategy over the other, we can say information is key.

Here’s how the public was betting as of Wednesday morning, according to data aggregator Sports Betting Dime:

–Moneyline tickets: Chiefs, 52 percent; Eagles, 48 percent
–Moneyline handle: Chiefs, 32 percent; Eagles, 68 percent
–Spread (percentage of tickets): Chiefs, 31 percent; Eagles, 69 percent
–Spread (handle): Chiefs, 19 percent; Eagles, 81 percent
–Total (tickets): Chiefs, 76 percent; Eagles, 24 percent
–Total (handle): Chiefs, 71 percent; Eagles, 29 percent

At Fanatics, 50 percent of moneyline tickets and 67 percent of the money are on the Chiefs at -125. As for the spread, 54 percent of the tickets and money is on the Chiefs at -1.5.

Caesars has seen 52 percent of spread and 53 percent of moneyline tickets on the Eagles, but more money has come in on the Chiefs (51 percent and 54 percent, respectively).

DraftKings has experienced similar splits, with 54 percent of the money and 57 percent of the spread bets on the Chiefs. Bettors have hammered the over (83 percent of the money and 80 percent of bets). As for the moneyline split, the Eagles have seen more support, with 53 percent of the money and 54 percent of the bets.

Super Bowl LIX: The Player Props

Suppose you feel a little overwhelmed looking at the vast menu of player props. In that case, this may help: the players people are betting the most on are Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert, as well as Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

The most popular same-game parlay legs include the anytime TD props for Barkley, Hurts, Kelce and Kansas City’s Kareem Hunt. Barkley’s Anytime TD Scorer prop is the most popular TD prop at ESPN Bet (bets and money).

Super Bowl LIX: Notable Bets

As we get closer to kickoff and the volume of wagers continues to grow, we are bound to hear about some pretty big bets. Betting at legal sportsbooks is expected to top $1.7 billion.

Here are some of the bigger bets that have come in so far:

–$800K on the Eagles moneyline at +110 (BetMGM)
–$750K on the Eagles moneyline at +110 (BetMGM)
–$150K on the Eagles moneyline (DraftKings)
–$50K on the Eagles moneyline at +110 (Caesars)
–$30K on Eagles +3 at -141 (BetRivers)
–$300K on Eagles +0.5 at -120 (BetMGM)
–$326K on the Chiefs moneyline at -130 (BetMGM)
–$63,370 on the Chiefs moneyline at -135 (BetRivers)
–$55K on the Chiefs moneyline at -132 (BetRivers)
–$150K and $138.6K on under 49.5 (BetMGM)
–$110K on under 49.5 (Caesars)

Big money has come in on a few prop bets as well:

–$51K that an octopus would not be scored at -3335 (to win $1,530; BetRivers). An octopus occurs when the player who scored the touchdown also scores the 2-point conversion.
–$83.5K on “No player to score a rushing and receiving touchdown” at -835 (BetRivers)
–$25K on Kelce to win MVP at +1500 (BetMGM)
–$20K on Mahomes to win MVP at +110 (Caesars)

–Field Level Media

Jan 26, 2025; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) celebrates after a touchdown against the Washington Commanders during the second half in the NFC Championship game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

59 Prop Bets for Super Bowl LIX

Posted on | by Field Level Media

It is common practice for sportsbooks to post a couple of hundred prop bets for games during the regular season and playoffs.

But for the Super Bowl, no amount of bets seem to be enough. You can put money down on just about every aspect of the game — plus what happens off the field.

Sportsbooks have odds on everything from the result of the coin flip, the length of the national anthem, the number of successful fourth-down conversions, and so much more. We’ve combed through the masses and identified our 59 favorite ones (odds followed by an asterisk are our O/U recommendations).

–Super Bowl Props: Coin Toss (odds via BetRivers)

1. Chiefs: Yes +250; No -335

2. Eagles: Yes +315; No -435

In the history of the game, there have been 27 occasions in which the winner of the coin toss went on to win the game. That includes the past two. If you are thinking about betting on the Chiefs to win the game (-130), then there is definitely value in this prop.

The same probably holds true for those thinking of betting on the Eagles (+107), too.

–Super Bowl Props: Touchdown Scorer (odds via FanDuel)

The Eagles are averaging 35 points per game during the playoffs, and the Chiefs, 27.5. Both defenses have been stingy (the Eagles have yielded 18.3 points per game, the Chiefs 21.5), but the two offenses in this game are too good to be stopped.

With that in mind, the following are our favorite TD scorer props for Super Bowl LIX:

3. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, 2-plus TDs, +280

4. Barkley, 3-plus TDs, +1600

5. Barkley, First TD, +420

6. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, 2-plus TDs, +550

7. Hurts, First TD, +650

8. Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown, anytime, +180

9. Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt, anytime, +130

10. Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy, anytime, +150

11. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, anytime, +370

12. Eagles defense, anytime, +650

13. Chiefs defense, anytime, +750

–Super Bowl Props: Saquon Barkley (odds via BetMGM)

Barkley rushed for more than 2,000 yards in his first regular season away from the New York Giants. He is on the verge of recording 2,500-plus rushing yards after gaining 442 between the wild card, divisional round and NFC title game.

He will see the ball early and often in Super Bowl LIX, making his props worth taking into consideration.

14. O/U 112.5 Rushing Yards, -125*/-105

15. O/U 21.5 Rushing Attempts, -130*/-105

16. O/U 130.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards, -115/-115*

17. O/U 24.5 Yards for Longest Rush, -120*/-110

18. To Record 125+ Rushing Yards, +110

19. O/U 12.5 Receiving Yards, -130/+100*

20. O/U 1.5 Receptions Made, -190/+145*

21. O/U 9.5 Yards for Longest Reception, -105/-130*

–Super Bowl Props: Jalen Hurts (odds via Caesars)

The Eagles star is one of those rare quarterbacks who can impact the game with his legs as well as his arm, which makes his player props pretty intriguing.

22. O/U 40.5 Rushing Yards, -110/-120*

23. To Record 50+ Rushing Yards, +150

24. O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns, +165*/-200

25. O/U 211.5 Passing Yards, -115/-115*

26. O/U 252.5 Passing and Rushing Yards, -120/-110*

27. O/U 18.5 Passing Completions, +100*/-130

28. O/U 27.5 Passing Attempts, -105/-125*

29 .O/U .5 Interceptions, +140*/-170

30. To Throw 1-plus Interceptions, +104

31. O/U 67.5 Completion Percentage, -115*/-115

–Super Bowl Props: Patrick Mahomes (odds via Caesars)

The Chiefs quarterback has had some impressive games in the Super Bowl before and against pretty good defenses. Will that be the case this time, too? Or will the defense have to step up? Either way, Mahomes props are some of the best for the Big Game:

32. O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns, -180*/+150

33. To Throw 3-plus Passing Touchdowns, +160

34. O/U 251.5 Passing Yards, -115*/-115

35. O/U Passing and Rushing Yards 280.5, -120/-110*

36. O/U 24.5 Passing Completions, +100*/-130

37. O/U 67.5 Completion Percentage, -115*/-115

38. O/U 36.5 Passing Attempts, +100/-130*

39. O/U .5 Interceptions, +100*/-130

–Super Bowl Props: Receiving (odds via DraftKings)

With two of the best quarterbacks in the league and some of the best skill position players, the potential for a significant performance or two is certainly there. Of course, when it comes to player props, it isn’t always about big numbers.

40. Brown, O/U 70.5 Receiving Yards, -111/-110*

41. Brown, O/U 5.5 Receptions, +118*/-146

42. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce O/U 62.5 Receiving Yards, -106*/-115

43. Kelce, O/U 6.5 Receptions, +123*/-154

44. Worthy, O/U 57.5 Receiving Yards, -109*/-122

45. Worthy, O/U 5.5 Receptions, +107/-132*

46. Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert, O/U 52.5 Receiving Yards, -110/-111*

47. Goedert, O/U 4.5 Receptions, -135/+109*

48. Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith, O/U 50.5 Receiving Yards, -111/-110*

49. Smith, O/U 4.5 Receptions, -113/-109*

— Super Bowl Props: Miscellaneous

There are so many great props to choose from that a miscellaneous section is needed for those that do not fall under one of the sections above.

50. 4th Down Conversions OVER 2.5, +140 (odds via BetMGM)

51. Game To Go To Overtime, +1000 (odds via BetMGM)

52. Anti-Hero: Hurts to Throw 3-plus Pass TDs and Score 1-plus Rush TD, +1600 (odds via DraftKings)

53. Dual Threat: Mahomes and Hurts to Combine for 7-plus Pass and Rush TDs, +275 (odds via DraftKings)

54. Eagles kicker Jake Elliott, O/U 1.5 Field Goals, +105*/-135 (odds via Caesars)

55. Blank Space: Brown and Smith 0 Combined Receiving Yards in First Quarter, +525 (odds via Caesars)

56. Taylor Swift Special: 1989 — Kelce to have a reception for 19-plus yards and 89-plusreceiving yards, +300 (odds via bet365)

57. Swiftie Special: Everything Has Changed — Chiefs to Come from Behind and Take the Lead in 4th Quarter, Yes +200* No -250 (odds via bet365)

58. If the Chiefs win: MVP — Mahomes, +105 (odds via BetRivers)

59. If the Eagles win: MVP — Barkley, +250 (odds via BetRivers)

–Field Level Media

Inside NCAA Headquarters located in Indianapolis on Friday, March 10, 2023. Ncaa President Charlie Baker

NCAA ‘drawing line’ on gambling, wants player prop bets banned

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The NCAA wants states to ban player prop bets in college sports to protect both athletes and the “integrity of the game,” president Charlie Baker said Wednesday.

“Sports betting issues are on the rise across the country with prop bets continuing to threaten the integrity of competition and leading to student-athletes and professional athletes getting harassed,” Baker said. “The NCAA has been working with states to deal with these threats and many are responding by banning college prop bets.”

Last week, Cleveland Cavaliers head coach J.B. Bickerstaff told reporters he had been threatened by gamblers last season.

“They got my telephone number and were sending me crazy messages about where I live and my kids and all that stuff,” Bickerstaff said. “So it is a dangerous game and a fine line that we’re walking for sure.”

Indiana Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton said recently that gamblers reach out to him directly on social media about prop bets, which involve the performance of individual players and not the team.

“To half the world, I’m just helping them make money on DraftKings or whatever,” he said. “I’m a prop.”

And Baker said that isn’t right.

“This week we will be contacting officials across the country in states that still allow these bets and ask them to join Ohio, Vermont, Maryland and many others and remove college prop bets from all betting markets,” Baker said. “The NCAA is drawing the line on sports betting to protect student-athletes and to protect the integrity of the game.”

Wagering on college sports is a multi-billion industry. The American Gaming Association issued its projection last week that said Americans will legally bet $2.72 billion on the 2024 men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments, equivalent to just 2.2 percent of the total amount of money legally wagered on sports in the U.S. in 2023.

–Field Level Media

Nov 20, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) runs the ball during the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 Prop Picks: Backup RBs on blast

Posted on | by Field Level Media

With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, all 32 teams have had their byes and a full slate of games is on the docket through Week 18.

There are plenty of options on the board if you’re shopping for player props.

Here are three we like on Sunday.

–Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
The emergence of Isiah Pacheco relegated Edwards-Helaire to a backup role in the Chiefs’ running back pecking order. However, Edwards-Helaire did get a chance to start in Week 14 against the Bills, as Pacheco was inactive due to a shoulder injury.

Edwards-Helaire wasn’t exactly convincing, rushing for 39 yards on 11 carries. His 3.5 yards per carry matched his season mark, perhaps suggesting that this is as good as it will get with the backup running back.

Edwards-Helaire couldn’t get much going against a Bills team that ranks 18th in the FTN Network’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

Next up for the Chiefs is a Patriots defense that sits atop the league using the same metric.

Given how the Chiefs run their offense, ranking 26th with a run play rate of 38.7%, I question whether there are enough carries for Edwards-Helaire to go over this prop.

–Ezekiel Elliott under 19.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
Elliott is coming off a season-high 22 carries, he ran for just 3.1 yards per carry. He was more effective out of the backfield, with 72 receiving yards on seven receptions.

I’ll expect him to regress to the mean against a Chiefs team that will be in a foul mood following their 20-17 home loss to the Bills.

Questions continue to linger about Kansas City’s wide receiver group, which has been underperforming despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City can get right against this Patriots pass defense that ranks 24th in Nfelo’s expected points added (EPA) metric.

Part of Elliott’s increase in usage in Week 14 might have more to do with how the game played out, given that New England jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter and held on for a 21-18 victory.

The Patriots are likely to be chasing the game against the Chiefs, making them less likely to prioritize a rushing attack with Elliott staying under his attempts prop.

–Mitch Trubisky over 4.5 rushing attempts (+114 at DraftKings)
At 7-6, the Steelers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC. Seating could change quickly given that four teams with identical records remain in the hunt for one of the three wild-card spots.

Pittsburgh is currently on a two-game losing streak and won’t have starting quarterback Kenny Pickett due to a high ankle injury. The Steelers will turn to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky when they desperately need a win to snap a two-game losing streak.

Thus, it’s imperative that the Steelers put together a strategy that suits Trubisky’s skillset. That game plan should include rolling Trubisky out of the pocket and calling some designed run plays for the quarterback.

His lone start this season was last week, and he carried the ball eight times. He’s had two other games where he didn’t start but took roughly half of the quarterback snaps and finished with three carries in each contest.

If Trubisky can play the entire game, I expect him to use his legs and go over this rushing prop. Note that this Colts defense can be vulnerable against the run, ranking 26th in both EPA and DVOA.

–Field Level Media

Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) dunks the ball over the goal post after scoring a touchdown Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023, during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Week 10 Prop Bets: Colts ride RB2 in Germany

Posted on | by Field Level Media

With the NFL regular season halfway in the books, it makes sense to take stock of how things have unfolded regarding player props. In Week 9, I highlighted the difficulty of finding an edge in this betting market as sportsbooks further sharpen their lines.

To understand how challenging this market can be, two of my quarterback prop selections failed to cash by three completions combined. Such is the risk when you play props to go over their projections.

I’m always a bit cautious when I find myself playing too many overs. You almost need a perfect game script to have things go your way.

The reality is that there are simply too many variables that go unaccounted for in prop projections-thus creating inherent value on the under.

For Week 10, I’ll try to put that theory to work by targeting the props with a decent chance to stay under their projections.

–Colts RB Jonathan Taylor under 17.5 rushing attempts (-120 at PointsBet)
After showing a willingness to part ways with Taylor, the Indianapolis Colts reversed course and signed the fourth-year pro to a three-year deal worth $42 million. Taylor began the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list while the Colts explored possible trade options.

However, the Colts felt the trade offers didn’t represent fair market value and ultimately kept the former All-Pro running back. Whether they were correct to extend Taylor isn’t a closed case.

A closer look at his year-over-year stats might point to regression.

After averaging five yards per carry in his rookie season and 5.5 yards in Year 2, Taylor averaged 4.5 yards in his third season.

This season, his rushing average is down to 4.1 yards per carry.

Zack Moss filled in admirably for Taylor when he missed the first four games of the campaign. Through eight games, Moss is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. That’s roughly the same mark (4.8 yards per carry) since the Bills traded him to the Colts last season.

Taylor averaged 2.6 rushing yards on 18 carries in the Colts’ Week 9 victory over the Panthers. And given how well Moss continues to run the ball, I expect him to eat into Taylor’s workload and take some carries away from him in Week 10.

–Saints TE Juwan Johnson under 25.5 receiving yards (-125 at PointsBet)
This is more of a math exercise.

Numbers point to this prop staying under: Johnson averages five receiving yards per target (19), as he’s likelier to see between three and four targets per game.

Foster Moreau, another Saints tight end, averages 9.58 receiving yards per target (12).

Johnson doesn’t just have to contend with only Moreau. Saints’ utility man, Taysom Hill, is also taking snaps at the tight end position.

Hill averages 5.68 receiving yards per target and catches 80 percent of the passes thrown his way compared to 68% for Johnson.

The Saints also have capable wide receivers in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Michael Thomas. Thomas failed to record a reception in his lone target against the Bears in Week 9.

Look for Thomas to play a more significant role in the offense this week, adding further credence to playing Johnson under his receiving prop.

–Browns RB Kareem Hunt over 23.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
As much as I wanted to target the props with the best chance to stay under this week, this is one where the numbers point the other direction.

Hunt was out of the league until the Browns swooped in and signed him following Nick Chubb’s season-ending knee injury in Week 2.

The Browns slowly worked Hunt into the mix, giving him five carries the following week in their 27-3 victory over the Titans. He got another five carries in their 28-3 loss to the Ravens in Week 4.

Since the Week 5 bye, Hunt has 10-plus carries in four consecutive games.

Given that the Browns sit third in the league with a run-play rate of 48.52%, he should get plenty of opportunities to carry the rock. Cleveland also utilizes Pierre Strong Jr. in the backfield, but he’s questionable with a hamstring injury and was limited in practice this week.

In the first meeting with the Ravens, the Browns suited up third-string quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and his three interceptions were a big reason why the game was so lopsided. In a closer rematch, Hunt gets extra work.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Sep 24, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Dalvin Cook (33) carries the ball asNew England Patriots linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley (8) defends during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 props: Will Jets give Dalvin Cook a look?

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Week 6 marks the end of the London games on the schedule, with the morning meeting between Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Bye weeks are in the mix again with four teams off last week and the Packers and Steelers off in Week 6.

Here are our top five player props for Week 6.

–Raiders tight end Michael Mayer under 18.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Mayer’s two catches for 39 yards in Week 5 equates to a breakout performance, considering he was targeted twice with one catch for 2 yards in his previous four games.

Mayer, active for all five games this season while playing at least 40 percent of the Raiders’ offensive snaps, did see an increased snap count to 66 percent in Week 5.

We’re not convinced we can read too much into that.

After all, it was the first time this season that Mayer saw close to 10 percent more of the snaps than fellow tight end Austin Hooper.

The Raiders are coming off a game against a Packers team that ranks 17th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. This week, they’ll face a Patriots defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards (142) to tight ends.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick should be familiar with Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from his time in New England. Look for Belichick to try and take away the middle of the field and force Garoppolo to beat him outside the numbers.

–Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa under 31.5 pass attempts (+100 at BetMGM)
The Dolphins are the second-highest favorites on the board this week for several reasons. Carolina is still winless on the year and ranks 29th defensively in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric.

However, a closer look reveals that Carolina’s defensive frailty might have more to do with stopping the run.

The Panthers actually rank dead last in EPA (expected points added) against the run, but they’re ninth in EPA against the pass.

As a result, the Dolphins’ running game should be on prominent display.

Even with Miami’s standout rookie running back De’Von Achane set to miss the next four games with a knee injury, you can argue that there’s a bit of a plug-and-play aspect with the Dolphins’ ground game.

While Achane drew plenty of headlines with his 460 rushing yards through four games and 12.1 yards per carry, Raheem Mostert has also been productive with 5.4 yards per carry.

Chris Brooks will likely see more touches, and even though he only has nine carries on the year, he’s averaging 7.3 yards per rush.

With Miami being such heavy favorites at home against a team that struggles to stop the run, this doesn’t feel like a game where the Dolphins will have to rely on Tagovailoa’s arm to lead them to victory.

–Rams tight end Tyler Higbee under 3.5 receptions (+110 at BetMGM)
After back-to-back games with five receptions, Higbee had two grabs on three targets in Week 5. But there was another critical development in their recent game against the Eagles as Cooper Kupp returned from injury.

Kupp missed the first four weeks due to a hamstring strain. In his first game back, he saw 12 targets and caught eight passes for 118 yards.

The emergence of rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua left Van Jefferson expendable and he was traded to the Falcons.

Bettors can attribute some correlation here with Kupp’s return and a decline in Higbee’s production. There’s only one ball to go around, and we think Higbee will find himself even lower down the pecking order in Week 6.

–Breece Hall under 13.5 rush attempts (-125 at DraftKings)
Hall is fresh off a breakout game with 22 carries for 177 yards to help the Jets beat the Broncos. However, that performance came against a defense ranked dead last in defensive DVOA and 30th in EPA against the run.

This week, the Jets face an Eagles’ run defense currently ninth in EPA. While there’s no question that the Jets are stepping up in class, Hall’s heavy workload in Week 5 makes him even more of a fade candidate this week against the Eagles.

It’s worth noting that he didn’t register more than 12 carries in any of his first four games.

The Jets are as high as seven-point home underdogs, with the Eagles coming to town. And if they have to play from behind, the Eagles will likely force them into passing situations where they’ll have to abandon the run.

–Dalvin Cook over 13.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
We like correlated plays, and this one makes some sense: All in on Cook’s rushing prop to go over 13.5 yards.

We’re not asking for a ton of yardage here, as Cook has already gone over this number in four of five games this season.

The seventh-year pro is only averaging 2.7 yards per carry, and he’s at that age (28) where we tend to see some decline in production at the running back position.

However, Cook still has a role to play on this Jets team as he can help carry some of the load at running back with Hall only in his second season as a pro.

With coaches very mindful of the workload for their running backs game by game, look for some of Hall’s carries to go to Cook in Week 6.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Jan 2, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Wildcard TD props: A pick for 6 in every game

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Wildcard Weekend, one of the most exciting weekends of the year in the NFL, offers six games to determine the divisional round matchups.

Betting opportunities are plentiful as each playoff game is in a standalone timeslot.

We evaluated all six games and came up with one touchdown scorer prop we like in every matchup.

–AFC wildcard game at Cincinnati
Las Vegas Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals
My favorite touchdown pick is Joe Mixon, but at -165 odds, it’s not the best option as a straight bet.

Mixon is the clear RB1 in Cincinnati, leading the team in red zone usage by a sizable margin. He has 51 total looks, and the next closest option inside the 20 has 13.

The Raiders allow 1.35 touchdowns per game to running backs, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Mixon to score once is a great option in a parlay.

Data shows the Bengals’ offense is the best spot to target, given the defensive vulnerabilities of the Raiders, and the position group of interest keeps coming back to RB. The Raiders are stingy against wide receiver scoring.

Mixon scored twice against the Raiders earlier this year, and the numbers suggest that could happen.

Best Bet: Joe Mixon to Score 2 TDs (+380 on FanDuel)

–AFC wildcard game at Orchard Park, N.Y.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
This is the third matchup between the AFC East rivals since Dec. 6. The first game in Buffalo was a low-scoring affair due to heavy winds, while the second contest showcased more scoring. The Bills won at Foxborough on Dec. 26 by a 33-21 count.

Weather isn’t expected to be a major factor, but the projected temperature at kickoff is 3 degrees.

Something about the playoffs and big games tends to get Josh Allen moving with his legs, and it’s here we’ll focus on a touchdown prop bet.

In four postseason games, Allen has averaged 59.25 rushing yards, scoring once. Allen has also been the leading rusher for Buffalo in both games against New England this season.

With six rushing touchdowns on the year, Allen has comfortably demonstrated the ability to get in the end zone with his legs. I like him to do it again. The past two seasons, Allen has rushed for a touchdown in 9 of 19 home games, good for a 47% rate.

Best Bet: Josh Allen TD (+180 on DraftKings)

–NFC wildcard game at Tampa, Fla.
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
No team allows more touchdowns to tight ends than Philadelphia.

That would suggest Rob Gronkowski is in for a big game, and he’s no stranger to postseason success. Gronk’s odds on FanDuel are +125, a solid option.

We turn our attention to the Eagles’ side, instead, and namely quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Hurts has 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 games this season, and scored twice against Tampa Bay in their previous meeting.

The Philly running back group has some question marks. Miles Sanders has a broken hand and Jordan Howard has been nursing a stinger and looking less effective of late.

Hurts is the constant in this rushing attack with an innate nose for the goal line. His odds are solid at major sportsbooks, but slightly better on FanDuel.

Best Bet: Jalen Hurts TD (+220 on FanDuel)

–NFC wildcard game at Arlington, Texas
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
The highest projected total of the weekend should bring plenty of touchdowns, as two of the more explosive offenses in the NFL face off on Sunday afternoon.

Both offenses should have an edge when they see the field. Dallas averages the sixth-most passing attempts per game and will get a vulnerable San Fran secondary.

The Niners have been running at will for most of the season and get a Cowboys run defense that comes in ranked as a below-average unit on both Pro Football Focus and DVOA.

It’s hard to ignore the consistency of Deebo Samuel, who has scored at least once in 7 of his last 8 games.

Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, Samuel gets the ball no matter where the 49ers are on the field.

You’d like better odds, but sometimes it’s best to follow reliability.

Best Bet: Deebo Samuel TD (-115 on DraftKings)

–AFC wildcard game at Kansas City, Mo.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is the largest favorite this weekend, which can be read in a few ways. On one hand, the Chiefs should be able to put up points, which makes honing in on their offense the safe path.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh is likely to be throwing throughout the game as they play catch up, which gives us a positional group of focus.

On paper, the Chiefs’ biggest advantage is on the ground, but betting on this backfield has been a frustrating endeavor all season. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams and even Derrick Gore getting touches, it feels like a dart throw to guess which one finds the end zone.

Pittsburgh pass-catchers seem certain to be busy, namely Diontae Johnson.

Johnson is Big Ben’s top target and had seven red-zone targets the past three games.

The Chiefs have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns per game to WRs, further supporting this angle.

Johnson scored just three weeks ago against this same Kansas City defense, and I’ll be betting on him to do it again.

Best Bet: Diontae Johnson TD (+180 on DraftKings)

–NFC wildcard game at Inglewood, Calif.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Wild Card Weekend extends to Monday Night, where we’ll be treated to a third game between the Cardinals and Rams.

No team allows more wide receiver touchdowns than Arizona. In eight regular-season home games, Los Angeles has thrown 21 touchdowns and ran in just two.

Cooper Kupp is the preferred pick here if you parlay your touchdown picks, but at -165, that’s poor value on a straight bet. We will mention here that Kupp has scored 16 touchdowns this season, with 1+ in 11 of 17 games this season.

To secure better odds, we’ll shift to Odell Beckham. Since the Rams bye week in Week 11, OBJ has found the end zone in 5 of 7 games, including against these Cardinals.

Beckham is second among Rams pass-catchers in red zone targets since Week 12 and should have the opportunities Monday.
Best Bet: Odell Beckham TD (+140 on DraftKings)

If you wanted to shoot for the stars with a touchdown parlay, the above six picks — including Mixon to score once — combine for +16284 odds on DraftKings.

–By Griffin Carroll (@griffybets), Field Level Media

Dec 26, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud (14) catches a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Week 18 TD Props: Something to parlay for

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The final full NFL Sunday of the year is here.

We pegged down a handful of winners last week, so let’s finish the regular season strong with touchdown scorer props in Week 18.

Here are five of my favorite touchdown bets this weekend in the NFL.

Steelers WR Ray-Ray McCloud: +450 on BetMGM
McCloud of the Pittsburgh Steelers has not yet scored this season, but the receiver is seeing consistent volume near the goal line. McCloud had five red zone targets last week and has seen at least one target in the red zone in four straight weeks.

You’ll see as a likely constant throughout this piece is a preference for games that matter. The last week of the NFL season sometimes gets funky, with young players seeing more snaps and starters getting pulled.

Luckily, this game is not one of those cases, with both the Steelers and Ravens still alive in the postseason race.

Speaking of the Ravens, few defenses have struggled slowing down receivers quite like Baltimore this year. Only four teams have allowed more touchdowns to WRs than the Ravens, so there’s going to be opportunities for a Pittsburgh pass-catcher in this one.

I’ll take a chance on McLoud to finally score at +450.

Ravens WR Marquise Brown: +190 on BetMGM
Let’s stick with this game for a moment and load up Marquise Brown. The best odds are once again at BetMGM, with DraftKings/FanDuel closer to +150.

Tyler Huntley will be starting for the third time in four weeks to wrap the season for the Ravens, who as mentioned are still alive and will be fighting to win.

In Huntley’s two most recent starts, Brown has seen 14 and 8 targets, and should once again be heavily involved in the passing game.

Pittsburgh let up the eighth-most touchdowns per game to WRs.

49ers RB Elijah Mitchell: +140 on FanDuel
The 49ers are in an important game against the Rams, with their wildcard hopes on the line. We turn to Mitchell, as LA has been more generous to rushing scores, ranking second-best in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed.

Mitchell returned in Week 17 and commanded the work out of this backfield, taking 21 carries for 119 yards. While he didn’t score, Mitchell did find the end zone in his two previous starts. I like the +140 odds here.

Two-Leg Parlay: Devin Singletary and D’Onta Foreman TDs (+203 on FanDuel)
I’m combining these two picks to give us favorable odds, since both come in closer to -140 on their own.

Let’s start with Singletary of the Bills, who will play the Jets.

I’ve been betting running backs to score against New York on a weekly basis, as no team allows more touchdowns to the position than the Jets (1.63 per game).

Singletary has taken hold of the top running back position in Buffalo and has a whopping 20 red zone looks in the past three weeks.

He’s also scored four touchdowns in the past three weeks, momentum I like seeing in a parlay.

Now for Foreman. He too gets himself a soft opponent in Houston, who allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game.

Foreman is averaging 3.4 red zone looks per game in his last five, scoring in three of four.

Both running backs have established roles near the end zone, soft opponents, and perhaps most importantly, something to play for.

Buffalo clinches the AFC East with a win and Tennessee secures the coveted first round bye with a win. Love this play.

Chargers TE Jared Cook: +240 on FanDuel
Speaking of games that matter, there isn’t a more cut-and-dry example than the Chargers-Raiders on Sunday Night Football. It’s win and you’re in for these two teams.

It’s always good to get a touchdown scorer prop in for SNF to have a rooting interest for the final game of the day, and Cook has us covered.

The Raiders allow the third-most touchdowns to tight ends, and Cook is back after spending a week on the COVID list.

Cook sees a steady stream of targets from Justin Herbert, with 5+ in three straight games. He’ll get his chances on Sunday against this Raiders defense, and with their defensive attention likely diverted to Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, I like Cook to slip through the cracks and score.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

Dec 26, 2021; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn (21) runs for a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers during the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Carroll: Top Week 17 TD Scorer Prop Bets

Posted on | by Field Level Media

It’s Week 17 in the NFL regular season, and it’s time once again to scan the board to find our favorite touchdown scorer props for the weekend.

There are some advantageous matchups worth a look, and here are seven scorers I like for Sunday’s slate.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn: +270 on FanDuel
We have just two more weeks to continue betting running back touchdowns against the New York Jets, who allow a league-high average of 1.74 touchdowns per game to the running back position.

This week, it’s the Buccaneers’ Vaughn who offers the best value. Ronald Jones is the starter, but his odds are closer to -150.

Vaughn played 36percent of the snaps in the first game since Leonard Fournette’s injury and scored a long touchdown.

He should continue seeing carries, and at these odds, I think this is strong value.

Trey Lance: +125 on PointsBet
Lance is expected to make the start this weekend with Jimmy Garoppolo doubtful. Lance gets himself a great opponent to work against in the lowly Houston Texans.

Houston allows the second-most rushing touchdowns per game, and Lance brings a mobility that the Niners are likely to utilize.

In Lance’s one start this year, he had a rushing touchdown, so let’s go ahead and load up a repeat performance.

A 49ers running back is another fine option here, and Elijah Mitchell (knee) is expected to play.

Rashaad Penny: +130 on DraftKings
I’m surprised we’re getting this at plus-odds, and it’s a great bet to take on its own or include in a touchdown parlay.

In the four consecutive games in which Rashaad Penny has received double-digit carries, he has scored three times.

Detroit has been another defense we’ve targeted all year due to their generosity towards running back scoring (1.53 TDs allowed per game).

Penny is the top back in Seattle and should see his chances to find the end zone. I love these odds.

John Bates: +650 on BetMGM
If you don’t recognize this name, it’s understandable. Bates is a tight end for Washington and has quietly been the Football Team’s top TE for the past seven weeks.

Bates is playing roughly 75 percent of the snaps and seeing a few targets each game. This weekend he’ll get Philadelphia, which has been extremely vulnerable to TE touchdowns.

The Eagles are tied with the most touchdowns allowed to the position at 11, and four of the past five weeks a tight end has scored against the Eagles.

At +650, this is worth a flier.

Kenny Golladay: +300 on DraftKings
I’ll admit, this one is ugly, but hear me out! Golladay has failed to score a touchdown all season, so there isn’t a performance trend to back this pick up.

However, Golladay is the last man standing in New York. Kadarius Toney is out. Sterling Shepard is out. Darius Slayton is out. Collin Johnson is out. John Ross is out.

There’s no one else!

The Giants play the Bears this weekend, who allow the second-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. If ever there was an opportunity to find the end zone, it’s this week.

At +300, it’s worth your consideration.

Hunter Renfrow: +190 on FanDuel
Renfrow has one of the steadiest roles on this Las Vegas offense. While his playing time tends to cap out at around 60 percent of the snaps, he has received red-zone targets in three straight weeks, and leads the team’s pass-catchers in looks near the goal line.

This is a must-win game for the Raiders and their playoff hopes, and the Colts allow the third-most touchdowns per game to receivers.

I like Renfrow’s odds here.

Michael Gallup: +210 on FanDuel
I admit that I’ve included Gallup in this column a lot recently, and he has failed to score in three straight weeks.

With that established, I’m keeping the faith that this man offers strong value to score for Dallas this weekend.

For starters, the Cowboys play the reeling Cardinals, who allow the most touchdowns to wide receivers.

Gallup had two red-zone targets last week and is seeing the field a lot for this offense. He brings the best odds among the three receivers, so I’m giving him another chance.

It helps that this game is the highest over/under of the weekend. We should see plenty of scores.

That’ll do it for this week’s top touchdown picks! Let’s have ourselves a profitable Week 17.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.

Nov 14, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) reacts after making a first down in the first quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Carroll: Top Week 16 TD Scorer Prop Picks

Posted on | by Field Level Media

We have just three full weeks of NFL action left, and it’s important we make the most of it.

With established roles, an uptick in volume or a soft defense, all of the following players offer solid value to find the end zone this weekend.

Here are nine touchdown scorer props I like in Week 16.

Rob Gronkowski: +130 on DraftKings
There’s going to be an influx of volume up for grabs in Tampa Bay with Chris Godwin suffering a season-ending torn ACL. Not only was Godwin seeing a hefty amount of targets, he also ranks second in the NFL in red-zone looks this season among WRs.

It’s for that reason we turn to Gronk, who has plus-odds at DraftKings compared to -120 on FanDuel.

Gronk saw 11 targets last game and has scored six times this season. The Panthers rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to allowing tight end touchdowns.

After getting shut out by New Orleans, I like to think Tom Brady will look to his ol’ reliable, Gronk.

Van Jefferson: +190 on DraftKings
The Vikings have been one of the most generous defenses to wide receiver success this season, letting up the most yards per game and the fifth-most touchdowns to the position.

Jefferson seems entrenched as the WR2 for the Rams offense and offers much better value than Cooper Kupp (-175).

Playing 80-90 percent of the snaps and seeing steady targets, Jefferson is a solid option to score on Sunday.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: +210 on DraftKings
St. Brown has been rolling for Detroit, going for 73-plus yards in three consecutive games and scoring a touchdown in two of them.

The Falcons let up the third-most touchdowns to WRs, and Detroit is once again likely to be throwing plenty. This is the best value I see for a Lions player.

Pharaoh Brown: +500 on DraftKings
No team allows more touchdowns to tight ends per game than the Chargers. Brown plays the most of all Texans tight ends, and leads the group in targets.

This is a bit of a longshot, but that’s what makes touchdown props so fun. The Chargers’ defense has shown some vulnerabilities through the air, so if the Texans can move the ball at all, Brown offers a potentially really solid return at +500.

Joshua Kelley: +380 on DraftKings
It appears Austin Ekeler will be out this weekend due to his placement on the COVID-19 list. In his stead will be Justin Jackson and Kelley, and Kelly’s odds are significantly better than Jackson’s -105 odds.

The Texans allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game and Kelley has five red-zone looks in his past two games.

With a proven role in this offense near the goal line, I like Kelley’s chances.

Albert Okwuegbunam: +390 on Caesars
Okwuegbunam is the second tight end on Denver, but seeing steady target volume (around 5 per game), and playing around 40 percent of the offensive snaps.

Across from the Broncos is the Raiders, who allow the third-most touchdowns per game to tight ends and have struggled defending them all season.

Noah Fant is +215 to score, another solid option considering he’s the starter, but I like the +390 shot here in a soft matchup.

James Robinson* to Score 2 TDs: +600 on DraftKings
Robinson is currently questionable, and if he can’t go, I like Dare Ogunbowale in his place for the reasons listed below.

The logic here is simple: no team is allowing more touchdowns to running backs than the New York Jets. It’s truly not close, either – the Jets’ 1.79 TDs allowed per game to running backs is sizably more than the rest of the league.

Just last week, Duke Johnson found the end zone twice. Now we get one of the sturdiest betting options in the running back market with Robinson.

Robinson played his highest amount of snaps since Week 6 and found the end zone last week. I expect him to have plenty of opportunities against this porous New York defense.

Mike Davis: +290 on DraftKings
Speaking of defenses that allow a lot of scores to running backs, Detroit is right behind the Jets, allowing an average of 1.57 touchdowns per game from opposing runners.

Instead of betting on Cordarrelle Patterson at -165 odds, I’m rolling with Davis at +290.

Davis sees a role in this Falcons offense and has a red zone carry in three straight games. The disparity in odds is worth our consideration, and I love this value.

Michael Gallup: +180 on Caesars
Gallup has seemingly become the second wide receiver in Dallas, playing 82 and 92 percent in the past two games, respectively, with both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper in the lineup.

Despite the playing time splits, Gallup has the longest odds to score, and thus he becomes a value play against a Washington defense seeing the sixth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers.

Gallup is averaging 8.2 targets per game in his past five games, and few teams throw as often as Dallas. Plenty of opportunities await the wide receiver in this NFC East battle on Sunday night.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.