Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the Carolina Panthers in the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 18

With most NFL playoff teams sitting key personnel, Week 18 may not be a great week for putting money down on the traditional betting line. However, with many players looking to make statements, it is a great week to bet on NFL player props.

Of course, with hundreds to choose from, it can be a bit of a chore figuring out which ones to bet on. Here are our top 10 NFL player props (in no particular order) for the weekend’s slate.

Saints vs. Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield, OVER 251.5 Passing Yards at -113 (via BetRivers)

OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns at -114 (via BetRivers)

To throw for 300+ yards +260 (via DraftKings)

Mayfield has been in the zone, completing no less than 72.1 percent of his passes in any of the past three games, throwing for more than 251.5 yards in five of his last six games (and in 10 of 16 this season), and recording 2+ passing touchdowns in each of the past four.

Earlier this season, against the Saints, he completed 24 of 36 passes for 325 yards and four touchdowns, but he also had three interceptions.

The Saints are in complete disarray. Spence Rattler has been awful, as has been the Saints’ run game. So even if the New Orleans defense gets off to a strong start, it eventually will get tired. Tampa Bay is playing to secure the division title and its spot in the playoffs.

Mayfield is going for blood in this game. He’ll clear 300+ passing yards and throw at least two touchdown passes. Take the OVER on both.

Mike Evans, OVER 100.5 at -135 (via BetMGM)

Anytime First Half TD Scorer at +160 (via bet365)

Evans needs 85 yards to crack 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th straight season. Winning will come first, but it’s hard to envision a world where Mayfield doesn’t try to help him get there. Evans was held to two receptions (six targets) for 34 yards vs. the Saints in the first matchup. That will not happen again.

If Mayfield targets Evans as often as I expected, Evans will score at least once in the first half.

Vikings vs. Lions

Jared Goff, OVER 280.5 Passing Yards at -115 (via BetRivers)

Sam Darnold, OVER 281.5 Passing Yards at -115 (via bet365)

There is so much on the line in this game — division title, best record in the conference, No. 1 seed, bye in the first round, pride — to say these guys will lay it all on the line would be an understatement.

But that doesn’t mean we can expect the Lions’ secondary to suddenly become good again. No, this game will be a track meet with one team leading the way and the other playing catch-up. Either way, fans can expect both quarterbacks to throw for more than 280.5 yards.

Goff had 280 and Darnold 259 in the first matchup, but the Lions’ secondary has been hit hard by injuries, and with David Montgomery sidelined, Detroit probably will not focus as much on the run game.

Jordan Addison, OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards at -110 (via bet365)

OVER 4.5 Receptions at -150 (via bet365)

6+ Receptions at +140 (via bet365)

Yes, I know Justin Jefferson is the man in Minnesota. So, why am I going with Addison’s props? Sam Darnold has been loving him some Jordan Addison the past six games, targeting him no fewer than six times and for a total of 52. Addison has done his part, catching six or more in four of those games, though he topped 63.5 yards in just three.

Still, his chances of going over that number against the injury-riddled Vikings secondary are solid.

Jahymr Gibbs, OVER 87.5 Rushing Yards at -114 (via BetRivers)

OVER 17.5 Rushing Attempts at -122 (via BetRivers)

The Lions have leaned on Gibbs since Montgomery’s injury, and he responded with 100-plus yards in each of the past two games. He had 23 carries against the Bears when Detroit was interested in controlling the ball and running the clock and 18 last week in a track meet vs. the 49ers.

With the Vikings’ defense more concerned about the passing game, Gibbs should find enough running lanes to clear 87.5 yards. It may take until late in the fourth to get the 18th carry, but he’ll get it.

–Field Level Media

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) rushes for a touchdown Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, during a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 17

With NFL games on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday this week, Week 17’s Sunday slate only features nine games. With several games like Raiders vs. Saints where both teams are bad, putting money on the traditional betting line is challenging. But it is a great week for NFL player props.

The following are our top 10 player prop picks for Sunday’s NFL games. (Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise indicated.)

Jets vs. Bills

–Breece Hall, O/U 49.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

Hall has gone over this number in six of his last seven games. With rain in the forecast for Buffalo on Sunday, there is a good chance the Jets will focus more on the run. Plus, the more they run, the longer they can keep Josh Allen on the sideline.

Hall ran for a season-high 113 yards on the Bills earlier this year. The Bills have been an average run defense this season, which makes me think Hall will easily surpass 49.5 yards.

Take the OVER.

–James Cook, O/U 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards at -114/-114

The Bills have leaned into the run the last couple of weeks, with Cook going for 100-plus in two straight games and three of four. With inclement conditions expected, it would be surprising if they didn’t hand off to Cook early and often this week as well.

He could go over the total just running the ball. But in case he doesn’t break off a long run like he did the last two weeks, he’ll make up the difference with a couple of screen passes.

Take the OVER.

Falcons vs. Commanders

–Bijan Robinson, O/U 83.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113
–Robinson, O/U 18.5 Rushing Attempts at -132/+102

The best thing Atlanta can do to help Michael Penix Jr. is establish the run, which the Falcons should do anyway with a running back like Robinson. He’s gone for 86 or more yards in six of his last seven games (four in a row). He carried the ball 19-plus times in each of them; in the outlier, he only had 12 carries.

Atlanta will make sure Robinson eats against Washington’s lackluster run defense (29th in the NFL).

Take the OVER on both.

–Michael Penix Jr., O/U 207.5 Passing Yards at -114/-114
–Penix, O/U 29.5 Pass Attempts

The Falcons will try to protect their rookie this week, much like they did last week vs. the Giants. Establishing the run will be the focus of the offense, with enough passing to keep the Commanders’ defense (which happens to be one of the best pass defenses in the league) honest.

Penix had 27 pass attempts last week. Teams have been attempting 28.5 per game on the Commanders this season and 32.3 in the last three. If Cousins was still at QB, I’d expect Atlanta to be closer to 32 attempts than 28 — but not Penix.

They’ll play it safe with Penix again. Take the UNDER for both.

Dolphins vs. Browns

–Tyreek Hill, O/U 49.5 Receiving Yards at -114/-114

It hasn’t been the kind of year we’ve come to expect from Hill, but with all the injury issues Miami has dealt with, it’s not surprising. He’s averaging 55.6 yards per game this season and has exceeded 49.5 yards in three of his last six games.

But the Dolphins are still alive for the playoffs and are facing a Browns defense giving up 157.7 yards per game to wide receivers this season. Other pass-happy teams like the Broncos (Week 13) and Bengals (Week 16) saw their wide receivers combine for 200-plus.

Take the OVER.

Giants vs. Colts

–Jonathan Taylor, O/U 102.5 Rushing Yards at -115/-115 (via DraftKings)
–Taylor O/U 22.5 Rushing Attempts at -110/-110 (via DraftKings)

Taylor carried the ball 29 times for 218 yards last week vs. Tennessee, but 135 yards came on two carries. Expecting similar numbers would be unrealistic.

But as long as the Colts decide to abuse the Giants’ 31st-ranked run defense rather than (try to) establish the pass, good things will happen.

Taylor has had at least 21 attempts each time the Colts have won while he was healthy this season. As bad as the Giants’ run defense is, it makes sense to feed Taylor the ball 25 times.

Take the OVER for both.

Cowboys vs. Eagles

–Saquon Barkley, O/U 111.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

With Jalen Hurts out this week, the Eagles will likely focus on establishing the run with Barkley to take pressure off Kenny Pickett. It didn’t result in a win last week against the Commanders, but Washington is a better team than the Cowboys this year.

Dallas has held teams to an average of 89.3 yards over their last three games. But the Eagles are playing at home and have a chance to lock up the division with a win. With Barkley and the defense leading the way, they’ll get the job done.

Take the OVER.

–Field Level Media

Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 16

With 12 games on the schedule for Sunday featuring many of the NFL’s best teams, fans will have hundreds of player props to choose from for their betting pleasure in Week 16.

Rather than take hours of your day to research and figure out which are the best, see if any of our top ten picks inspire you. (These will be in no specific order. Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise indicated.)

Eagles vs. Commanders

–Jalen Hurts, O/U 191.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113
–Hurts to throw for 200+ yards at +108

Hurts is averaging right around 200 yards per game this season. While he had 290 his last time out against a good Steelers defense, he had less than 180 in his previous three. His numbers against the Steelers have to be taken with a grain of salt since Saquon Barkley missed time with an injury.

Washington controlled the game for three quarters a few weeks ago in Philly, only to lose after Barkley and the Eagles dominated the fourth quarter. I don’t see the passing game working as well as it did last time, but I doubt it will struggle as it did vs. Carolina, Baltimore and the Rams.

The Washington pass defense has held teams to less than 190 yards per game this season, but 209 ypg over the last three. Hurts will probably have a day similar to the one he had in the previous game vs. Washington (18-28 for 221 yards).

Take the OVER on his passing yards.

Giants vs. Falcons

–Michael Penix Jr., O/U 228.5 Passing Yards at -115/-115 (via DraftKings)

The Falcons will want to see their young quarterback spread his wings, but they’ll also want to protect him as much as they can. To that end, they’ll lean hard on the run in this game to draw the Giants’ defense in and then pass when his receivers are in single coverage.

They will not need to throw much against this Giants team and will probably let Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier carry most of the load.

Take the UNDER.

–Tyler Allgeier, O/U 36.5 Rushing Yards at -110/-110 (via bet365)
–Allgeier to rush for 50+ yards +165 (via BetMGM)

The Falcons may let Penix air it out in the first quarter but will otherwise have him throw just enough to keep the Giants’ defense honest. Robinson, of course, will carry the bulk of the load. But Allgeier will see the ball more than he usually does.

He had fewer than 10 carries in 10 of 14 games; look for him to get closer to 15 Sunday. With the Giants’ defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry, Allgeier should easily go over this total.

Take the OVER.

Lions vs. Bears

–Sam LaPorta, O/U 41.5 Receiving Yards at -115/-115 (via BetMGM)

Losing David Montgomery for the immediate future stings, but the Lions do still have Jahmyr Gibbs. But they’ll likely try to find other ways to move the ball to keep from overworking Gibbs. LaPorta has had a quiet season but has seen his target share go up in the last two weeks.

Big, pass-catching tight ends like LaPorta are great for moving the chains, and the Lions will probably use LaPorta more in that capacity going forward.

Take the OVER.

Browns vs. Bengals

–Chase Brown, O/U 74.5 Rushing Yards at -110/-110 (via bet365)
–Brown, O/U 17.5 Rushing Attempts at -130/+100 (via DraftKings)

Cincinnati has been all over the place with Brown’s touches this season. He had 25 last week vs. Tennessee but 12 to 14 in three of the previous four games. But teams have averaged 32 rushing attempts and 119.3 yards against the Browns in the last three weeks.

With the Browns starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, the Bengals will probably want to run a little more often to keep the clock moving. It will be the Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase show in the first half, but Brown will take over in the second.

Take the OVER for both.

–Jerry Jeudy, O/U 62.5 Receiving Yards at -110/-110 (via bet365)
–Jeudy, O/U 5.5 Receptions at +125/-165

Jeudy has gone over this yardage total in his last seven games, but bettors may want to mute expectations with Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. While DTR is a tremendous athlete, he struggles to connect with his receivers. He has completed just 44.1 percent of his passes this season (15-for-34) and 51.4 percent in his career (75-for-146).

As for his receptions total, Jeudy is one of Cleveland’s better playmakers. They’ll eventually settle for short throws to the flats that DTR can complete just to get the ball in Jeudy’s hands. Since those throws will be relatively easy to complete, Jeudy will see the ball enough to go over this total.

Take the UNDER for his yardage but the OVER for his receptions.

–Field Level Media

Oct 27, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Jake Haener (3) throws against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 15

It’s not a full Sunday slate of NFL action with two Monday night matchups, but it is going to be a busy day with plenty of player props to choose from among the games scheduled.

In an effort to make betting on them easier, we’ve done a deep dive into each game, looking for the best ones.

What is “best” is in the eye of the bettor, of course. But here are 10 of our favorite NFL player props from the Week 15 slate. (The following are in no particular order. Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise indicated).

Commanders vs. Saints

Jake Haener, QB, New Orleans Saints O/U 188.5 Passing Yards -113/-113

The Saints’ passing game was mediocre on its best days, especially since Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed went on injured reserve. And now a former fourth-round pick, Haener, is set to get his first NFL start on Sunday vs. a decent Washington defense.

The Commanders’ defense will smell blood in the water against an inexperienced quarterback. Haener got his most significant action to date on Oct. 27 against the Chargers, against whom he went 9 of 17 for 122 yards.

Take the UNDER.

Alvin Kamara, O/U 16.5 Rushing Attempts +100/-130 (BetMGM)

Kamara has logged 17-plus rushing attempts in four of his past five games. Since Washington ranks toward the bottom in rushing yards allowed per game, there is a good chance the Saints give him the ball a few more times.

Take the OVER.

Patriots vs. Cardinals

Drake Maye, O/U 20.5 Pass Completions -128/-102

Maye has completed at least 22 passes in five of his past seven games. Of the two times he was under in that span, he left one game early due to a concussion, and in the other (vs. Chicago), the New England defense took center stage and he didn’t need to throw much. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 21-plus passes vs. the Cardinals in eight straight games.

Take the OVER.

Kyler Murray, O/U 223.5 Passing Yards -120/-110 (DraftKings)

Murray has had some ups and downs this season, but he has been “up” for his past four games, throwing for 266, 285, 260 and 259 yards. With the run game not doing well in recent weeks, he attempted 24, 37, 45 and 38 passes in those games, respectively.

However, the Cardinals lost the past three games and they were trying to come from behind. That may not be the case this week. Still, since their run game is struggling and the Patriots’ defense has been mediocre against the pass, he will throw enough to go OVER this total.

Take the OVER.

Ravens vs. Giants

Justice Hill, O/U 15.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

If you look at his stat lines for this season, the UNDER looks like a terrific play. He has gone UNDER that total in seven of his past eight games. With Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson carrying the bulk of the load, that makes sense.

However, if this game becomes the blowout it is expected to be, the Ravens will pull Henry early enough in the second half. With three games in 11 days this late in the season, the Ravens will want to give their star running back a break to preserve him for future games.

Don’t be shocked if Hill plays the entire fourth quarter, if not most of the second half.

Take the OVER.

Dolphins vs. Texans

Tua Tagovailoa, O/U 264.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113

O/U 1.5 Passing Touchdowns at -128/-102

The Texans possess one of those defenses where the stats do not paint an accurate picture of just how good they are. Overall, they rank seventh in pass defense this season, allowing 198.8 yards per game.

Even so, Jacksonville’s Mac Jones threw for 235 yards and almost completed an incredible second-half comeback in Houston’s most recent game. Before that, Tennessee’s Will Levis threw for 278 yards against the Texans, Cooper Rush threw for 354 yards and Detroit’s Jared Goff threw for 240 yards despite throwing five interceptions.

Tagovailoa has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his past three games and had 288 in the one before that span. He has found his rhythm, and with the run game struggling, he is throwing a lot. Even if it looks sketchy for him in the first half, he will go OVER this total in the second half.

Take the OVER.

As for his touchdown total, Houston has given up 26 passing touchdowns this season, tied for the most in the NFL. Tagovailoa has thrown for two or more in each of his past four games. It would be a surprise if he did not throw at least two TD passes in this game.

Take the OVER.

Tyreek Hill, O/U 71.5 Receiving Yards at -113/-113

It has not been an excellent year for Hill, but he and Tagovailoa have formed a top connection the past two games. Hill was targeted 23 times in that stretch and caught 16 for 198 yards. The Texans may try to take him away, but they don’t have the personnel to do that. He may not do it until the fourth quarter, but Hill will go OVER 71.5 yards.

Take the OVER.

De’Von Achane, O/U 47.5 Rushing Yards at -113/-113

Houston has a decent run defense, and Achane has struggled to get the run game on track for the Dolphins no matter what team they face. He has gone over 47.5 yards just once in his past five games.

He will probably not go over it in this game because Miami will be too busy throwing the ball against the Texans’ defense.

Take the UNDER.

Nico Collins, O/U 88.5 Receiving Yards at -113/-113

Collins has improved with each game since returning from a five-game injury absence, culminating in an eight-reception, 119-yard day against the Jaguars. C.J. Stroud likely will try to target him 10 to 15 times in this game. As long as Collins catches half, he will go OVER 71.5 yards.

Take the OVER.

–Field Level Media

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) walks out onto the field with the offense to face the Buffalo Bills in the home opener at MetLife Stadium on Monday, Sept. 11, 2023, in East Rutherford.

Week 6 MNF: Jets-Bills Preview, Best Bet

Underwhelming might suffice as a five-game summary of the New York Jets through five games of the 2024 regular season.

Even so, the Jets can move into first place in the AFC East with a win on Monday night against the Bills.

A 2-3 start resulted in Jets owner Woody Johnson firing head coach Robert Saleh and promoting Jeff Ulbrich, the Jets’ defensive coordinator, to take the reins as the interim coach.

Ulbrich demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, stripping his play-calling duties to hand the responsibility to quarterbacks coach Todd Downing.

It might not take long to determine if the changes are akin to putting lipstick on a pig, given how much deference the offensive coaching staff gives Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Can Buffalo’s offense get back on track?

The Bills had a much better start to their campaign. They rattled off three straight wins but have now lost back-to-back games.

In hindsight, Buffalo might have benefited from a soft schedule, as its three wins (Cardinals, Dolphins, and Jaguars) came against sub-.500 teams, with a combined record of 5-12.

Defensively, those opponents rank 25th or lower in FTN Fantasy’s comprehensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

Offensively, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is coming off a 9-for-30 (131 passing yards) performance on the road against the Houston Texans.

Allen and his receivers weren’t on the same page. He has the fourth-highest percentage (19.5%) of “bad throws” that don’t include spikes or throwaways. Buffalo receivers have the second-highest percentage of dropped passes per attempt (7.8%).

Things won’t get any easier against a Jets secondary that Pro Football Focus ranks first in pass coverage with an 86.5 grade.

Rodgers deserves blame for the Jets’ dysfunction

Trading for Rodgers also meant the Jets essentially would give him the keys to the franchise.

Even before his arrival, Saleh signed Hackett as the offensive coordinator, given his strong relationship and perhaps even friendship with Rodgers since working together in Green Bay.

Some think Rodgers was even working behind the scenes, prodding the Jets to sign wide receiver Allen Lazard, a former Packers teammate.

We know that Rodgers definitely played a part in the Jets signing another former teammate in wide receiver Randall Cobb.

Thus, Rodgers has been the puppet master, pulling the strings for quite some time now.

There are even reports that Rodgers contacted the Jets owner after learning that Saleh was considering firing Hackett as the coordinator.

The dismissal completely blindsided Saleh, which suggests that something must have changed radically over a short period of time for the Jets front office to make such a decision.

Interestingly, the first thing the Jets’ new play-caller addressed when meeting the media was the Jets’ rushing attack.

“First of all, this team does have a strong run game. We just haven’t seen it come to fruition consistently enough,” Downing said. “Secondly, I think there become times where you can find people pressing a little bit because there’s an expectation for production and when it’s not met, you can feel a sense of urgency.”

There was no mention of his underperforming quarterback, who ranks 25th in Total QBR.

Unless Downing is brave enough to add dramatic wrinkles, we’re bracing for more of the same: the Jets’ stagnant offense relying on a dominant defense.

Best bet: Under 41 points (-110 at BetMGM)

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Nov 20, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) runs the ball during the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Week 15 Prop Picks: Backup RBs on blast

With just four weeks remaining in the regular season, all 32 teams have had their byes and a full slate of games is on the docket through Week 18.

There are plenty of options on the board if you’re shopping for player props.

Here are three we like on Sunday.

–Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 45.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
The emergence of Isiah Pacheco relegated Edwards-Helaire to a backup role in the Chiefs’ running back pecking order. However, Edwards-Helaire did get a chance to start in Week 14 against the Bills, as Pacheco was inactive due to a shoulder injury.

Edwards-Helaire wasn’t exactly convincing, rushing for 39 yards on 11 carries. His 3.5 yards per carry matched his season mark, perhaps suggesting that this is as good as it will get with the backup running back.

Edwards-Helaire couldn’t get much going against a Bills team that ranks 18th in the FTN Network’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.

Next up for the Chiefs is a Patriots defense that sits atop the league using the same metric.

Given how the Chiefs run their offense, ranking 26th with a run play rate of 38.7%, I question whether there are enough carries for Edwards-Helaire to go over this prop.

–Ezekiel Elliott under 19.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
Elliott is coming off a season-high 22 carries, he ran for just 3.1 yards per carry. He was more effective out of the backfield, with 72 receiving yards on seven receptions.

I’ll expect him to regress to the mean against a Chiefs team that will be in a foul mood following their 20-17 home loss to the Bills.

Questions continue to linger about Kansas City’s wide receiver group, which has been underperforming despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City can get right against this Patriots pass defense that ranks 24th in Nfelo’s expected points added (EPA) metric.

Part of Elliott’s increase in usage in Week 14 might have more to do with how the game played out, given that New England jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second quarter and held on for a 21-18 victory.

The Patriots are likely to be chasing the game against the Chiefs, making them less likely to prioritize a rushing attack with Elliott staying under his attempts prop.

–Mitch Trubisky over 4.5 rushing attempts (+114 at DraftKings)
At 7-6, the Steelers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC. Seating could change quickly given that four teams with identical records remain in the hunt for one of the three wild-card spots.

Pittsburgh is currently on a two-game losing streak and won’t have starting quarterback Kenny Pickett due to a high ankle injury. The Steelers will turn to backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky when they desperately need a win to snap a two-game losing streak.

Thus, it’s imperative that the Steelers put together a strategy that suits Trubisky’s skillset. That game plan should include rolling Trubisky out of the pocket and calling some designed run plays for the quarterback.

His lone start this season was last week, and he carried the ball eight times. He’s had two other games where he didn’t start but took roughly half of the quarterback snaps and finished with three carries in each contest.

If Trubisky can play the entire game, I expect him to use his legs and go over this rushing prop. Note that this Colts defense can be vulnerable against the run, ranking 26th in both EPA and DVOA.

–Field Level Media

Nov 9, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA;  Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) passes in the first half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 Player Props: Bryce Young airs it out

Four teams are off this week, but there is plenty of opportunity on the board in the player prop market.

It’s also a time of year to be a cautious shopper.

Even with a good handicap, the margins can be razor-thin this time of the year. For example, who could’ve foreseen the Colts’ backup running back, Zack Moss, carrying the ball just once despite not being on the injury report?

If you’re like me and expected Moss to eat into some of Jonathan Taylor’s carries, it wasn’t a predictable surprise.

Such are the risks with this racket. But we’re looking to avoid a similar pitfall with our player props for Week 11.

–Panthers QB Bryce Young over 34.5 pass attempts (-105 at DraftKings)
After opening as a nine-point home underdog against the Dallas Cowboys, the Carolina Panthers are now catching 10.5 points heading into Sunday. One thing we’ve seen with this Cowboys team is that they can be a bit of a bully.

Dallas is 4-1 straight up and against the spread when laying six or more points as a favorite this season. Their average margin of victory in those four wins is 27.5 points.

Things could turn ugly in a hurry for a Panthers team with the fewest wins (1-8) in the league. But we see the Panthers are willing to let Young take his lumps while learning on the job in his rookie campaign.

Young started eight of the nine games thus far while missing one due to injury and popped up on the injury report Thursday but is planning to play. Panthers backup quarterback Andy Dalton has yet to throw a pass in a game where Young was the starter.

In all four games that Young started where the Panthers lost by double digits, he finished with 38 or more pass attempts.

Should the Panthers trail big in this game, the organization seems content to keep Young on the field to further his development, particularly if facing the backups on an opposing team’s roster.

–Cowboys RB Tony Pollard under 16.5 rush attempts (-125 at BetMGM)
Despite being known to have a prolific rushing attack in recent memory, the Cowboys are running the ball less this season than last year.

According to TeamRankings, the Cowboys have a 43.5 percent run rate compared to 47.3 percent in the previous campaign. Interestingly, since the Cowboys already have four blowout wins, one would think they’d maintain their run rate or even exceed it.

However, the numbers clearly show that hasn’t been the case. It’s worth noting that Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy took over play-calling duties in the offseason after firing Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.

Last season, the Cowboys finished 18th in explosive plays of 20 or more yards. This season, they’re currently fourth using the same metric.

Based on those findings, the Cowboys are looking to push the ball down the field more than ever. And if they can build a big cushion in these games, there’s less need to give Pollard a heavy workload.

Backup running back Rico Dowdle has proven just as capable, considering that he’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry compared to 3.9 for Pollard. And while I don’t see Pollard losing his role as the lead back, I project he’ll once again settle for fewer carries on Sunday.

–Packers QB Jordan Love over 19.5 completions (-115 at BetMGM)
The Chargers (4-5) are trying to get back to .500 when they visit the Green Bay Packers. Los Angeles is laying three points on the road after opening as a 2.5-point favorite.

Despite having five losses, the Chargers have faced the third toughest schedule in the league. Only one of their defeats came against a team below .500 in a 27-24 overtime setback.

While the Chargers boast a sixth-ranked offense in expected points added (EPA), their defense ranks 29th in EPA. Big plays in the passing game have been too easy to come by for most opponents.

Opposing quarterbacks can have success against this Chargers unit, as it ranks 31st in completions (26.4) allowed per game.

Love completes more passes at home (60.5 percent) than on the road (56.9 percent). He’s completed at least 20 passes in four straight games while also exceeding this number in each of his starts at Lambeau Field.

With clear skies, temperatures in the mid-40s and 5-6 mph winds, the football weather should be a boost to Love going over his completion prop.

–Field Level Media

Oct 21, 2023; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA;  Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) celebrates with fans after the Crimson Tide defeated Tennessee 34-20 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

Alabama vs. LSU: Preview, Prop Pick and Prediction

Call it an elimination game in the SEC West.

That’s definitely the case for the LSU Tigers, who can’t afford a third loss if they hope to be considered for the College Football Playoff.

Make no mistake, Saturday’s matchup with Alabama in Tuscaloosa is vital for both schools. This classic spotlights LSU’s dynamic offense vs. Alabama’s physical defense, and LSU coach Brian Kelly is here for it.

“I think it’s the best defense in all three phases,” Kelly said. “It’s the challenge that an offense like ours is up for and will have to play their best. But that’s what this is about … our offense will have to be at their best when their best is needed.”

If LSU can somehow solve the Alabama mystique, it would pull the Tigers into a tie with the Tide and a clear path to an SEC title game showdown.

We have stats, news, quotes and betting predictions for our college football (betting) game of the week.

–Kickoff: 7:45 p.m., ET
–Television: CBS
–Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.
–Point Spread, Total: Alabama -3; Total 60.5

QUICK PICK
Bookmakers posted Alabama as a touchdown or more favorite when the opening lines were released, but that number has been bet down to a field goal at most outlets.

With the Tide supporters trying to be patient and optimistic about quarterback Jalen Milroe, the clock is ticking – and Milroe needs to start carrying Alabama when the team needs him.

LSU, with a more seasoned, decisive quarterback, has the positional edge here. Jayden Daniels simply has to play the game of his season to lift the Tigers past the Tide.

Daniels can make history, too, in a sense, by leading a victory. He would become the first starting QB to stop Alabama – with Coach Saban at the helm – in consecutive seasons.

Last season in Baton Rouge, La., Alabama – a 13.5-point favorite – scored a touchdown on the first possession of overtime, but Daniels ran 25 yards for a touchdown and passed for a winning two-point conversion in the 32-31 victory.

“He killed us last year,” Saban said.

Daniels has the legs to do it again, averaging more than 8 yards per rushing attempt. He has the arm, too, but needs to keep his jersey clean – and that could be the Tigers’ main concern.

Alabama’s typically ferocious defensive front can, and likely will, pressure Daniels into broken plays. And Daniels isn’t quite so effective when he’s under duress.

The Crimson Tide boast the fourth-highest sack percentage and rank 14th in pressure rate.

Milroe, on the other hand, has the arm to devastate a depleted LSU secondary with his signature deep ball. One or two long-distance strikes can serve as a gut punch.

Milroe averages 10.7 yards per pass attempt, has executed 17 big-time throws and has a 98.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade on attempts of 20-plus yards through the air.

Several projection models have Alabama closer to a 5.5 or 6-point favorite, so Tide backers have some cushion.

The pick: Alabama 36, LSU 27
The bet: Alabama -3.

THE NEWS

And Alabama certainly has its collective eyes on the College Football Playoff.

If Coach Saban’s crew runs the table and beats a still-unbeaten Georgia in that conference title game, the Alabama strength of schedule almost certainly will be enough for another Crimson Tide appearance in the final four.

As if Alabama needed any extra motivation.

Quick comparisons: The Tide offense is nothing special statistically. LSU is No. 1 in the country (47 points per game; 552 yards per game).

Alabama is second in the SEC in points allowed (16.5) and third in yards allowed (306) per game.

LSU’s defense played poorly early in the season, especially in shootout losses to Florida State (45-24) and Ole Miss (55-49).

The unit has played better of late but will be missing several players Saturday.

Starting defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo likely will miss the rest of the regular season.

“Clearly, we would love to have Wingo in the lineup,” Kelly said, “but we are built for injuries.”

Three of the Tigers’ top defensive backs will miss this game because of injury, and LSU might have to endure having three true freshmen in the secondary against the Tide.

THEY SAID IT
“This has developed into a rivalry game because they’re always ranked, we’re always ranked, and it’s always a big game relative to what happens in our division. It’s an important game for both teams.”

–Alabama coach Nick Saban

–Field Level Media

Oct 15, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) catches a pass during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 8 player props: Testing Russell Wilson, trusting Taysom Hill

Six teams return from bye weeks and all 32 teams are in action Week 8.

The full card means more options to choose from, and we’re shopping the player props market.

As usual, it helps to select props that correlate with how you expect a game to unfold. Thus, one can begin this process by crafting their overall game handicap before identifying which players to target.

Now that we’ve outlined our strategy, here are our top five player props in Week 8.

–Saints ATH Taysom Hill over 10.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
This play on Hill is worth the risk, even though he’s banged up. Hill is dealing with a chest injury that’s kept him limited in both Saints’ practices this week.

With the addition of Derek Carr at the quarterback position, Hill’s involvement has primarily been as a rusher. Hill has yet to attempt more than one pass in any game this season.

Hill had five games in which he attempted at least two passes.

The Saints will be up against a Colts team that has allowed the second-most points (183) this year. Per TeamRankings, Indianapolis sits tied for 23rd in the league in red zone scoring defensive percentage (61.9%).

Lastly, the 33rd team lists the Colts 28th in rushing yards allowed (165) to opposing quarterbacks, which feeds our educated hunch that Hill could see more than a few designed runs.

–Broncos QB Russell Wilson under 32.5 pass attempts (-130 at PointsBet)
In September, Wilson averaged 34.6 pass attempts through three games and dropped to 27.5 pass attempts over Denver’s next four games.

I can’t help but think that there’s been a fundamental change in the strategy of how Broncos head coach Sean Payton wants to run the offense.

This will be the second meeting in as many weeks between the two teams after facing off in Week 6. Kansas City won 19-8 in a game where Wilson managed only 22 pass attempts.

We’ve grown accustomed to the potency of this Chiefs’ offense led by reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes. In five of his six seasons as a starter, the Chiefs averaged at least 29 points per game.

This season, that number is down to 25.4 per game. And while Mahomes is still playing at an MVP level, the defense has a much more significant role.

Kansas City’s defense ranks sixth overall in expected points added (EPA) and third against the pass using the same metric.

And with the Chiefs’ scoring already down, opposing teams can stay in the game a bit longer without abandoning the running game if playing from behind.

Denver will be the home team for this divisional rematch, and I suspect they’ll try to lean on their running game to keep Mahomes and company on the sidelines as much as possible.

–Colts WR Alec Pierce over 20.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Given that Gardner Minshew will be under center for the Colts, this prop might offer the best value on the board. Although Minshew began the season backing up the injured Anthony Richardson, he provides more of a vertical attack than the Colts’ rookie.

In four games that Minshew either started or played a significant number of snaps, Pierce finished with at least 21 receiving yards. Furthermore, he’s averaging 37 receiving yards over those four games.

The sportsbooks’ projections for Pierce likely correlate to Richardson being on the field. However, the situation is now clearly different, and perhaps it’ll still take some time for them to deviate from their original numbers.

Thus, if you can spot a discrepancy, this is one of those spots where it makes sense to trust your instincts and not overthink things too much.

–Jets RB Dalvin Cook over 0.5 receiving yards (-105 at BetMGM)
Cook’s frustration with his role in the Jets’ offense isn’t breaking news. Cook signed a one-year $7 million deal with the Jets, including $5.8 million guaranteed, and has been used less frequently than the Aaron Rodgers TD jumbotron graphics.

Cook’s use is in decline. He played fewer and fewer snaps each game since the Jets’ season opener against the Bills. In the Jets’ last game, Cook saw action in just 14% of their snaps on offense.

The Jets are coming off a bye in Week 7, and recently, Cook acknowledged that his head could be on the trading block.

“It’s something I can’t control (if traded)…” Cook said. “It might be a good thing, might be a bad thing.”

Cook did say that while he’s not demanding a trade, he’s open to doing what’s best for both sides.

There isn’t a better way to showcase Cook than giving him more opportunities on Sunday against the Giants.

Cook only averages 2.8 yards per carry, but it’s tough to have any rhythm when you’re not getting consistent touches. Nonetheless, I think his receiving prop offers the best value because he can still catch the ball out of the backfield.

Despite his diminished playing time, he’s only had one game this season where he failed to catch a pass. This number for his receiving prop almost suggests that the Jets will keep him on the sidelines ahead of the looming trade deadline.

However, given how Cook has handled things professionally, I don’t see any reason for the Jets to view his actions as malicious. As a result, I’ll keep my fingers crossed and take the over with his receiving yardage prop.

–Steelers QB Kenny Pickett under 32.5 pass attempts (-125 at PointsBet)
Pittsburgh is off to a 4-2 start despite getting arguably below-average play from Pickett at the quarterback position. Per ESPN, Pickett ranks 30th among quarterbacks in Total QBR (35.5).

The Steelers are tricky to get a feel for because they seem to do more with less than some of the other teams around the league.

It’s at the point where I think you can no longer excuse the intangibles that head coach Mike Tomlin brings to the team as a leader and motivator.

Pittsburgh’s defense ranks eighth in Aaron Schatz’s defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric. That defense has kept its last two opponents under 17 points.

This total dropped a half-point to 40.5 after opening at 41. Moreover, there’s some rain in the forecast in Pittsburgh, with wind gusts up to 10 mph. If the Steelers can turn this game into a slugfest, I don’t see either quarterback putting up big passing numbers.

And given Pickett’s struggles this season, I think it makes sense to play the under in his prop for pass attempts.

–Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Oct 15, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) drops back to pass against the Minnesota Vikings during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 7 Prop Picks: Measuring the Bagent Effect

Week 7 arrives with the first mass bye week sending six teams to the sidelines: the Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Jets and Titans.

Fewer teams and opportunities sent us digging a little deeper for find an edge in the props market.

We managed to find three plays offering value that bettors should consider adding to their portfolios for Week 7.

–Packers WR Romeo Doubs over 3.5 receptions (+112 at FanDuel)
The Packers had plenty of time to reflect on their 17-13 loss to the Raiders in Week 5. Green Bay is one of just two teams coming off a bye.

Although the Packers didn’t play particularly well in Las Vegas, they still had a chance to win until Jordan Love threw an interception inside Raiders territory with 44 seconds left in regulation.

Love only managed to link up with Doubs for one completion for just four yards in the game. Those numbers fell well short of the wide receiver’s expectations based on his team-leading 21 receptions, 37 targets and 228 receiving yards.

This game sets up nicely for Doubs to bounce back, considering the extra rest for him and his teammates. It also doesn’t hurt that the Packers will face a Broncos team that ranks dead last in pass defense expected points added (EPA) per Nfelo metrics.

This prop seems a bit short, as my projections have Doubs going over this number, given his median and average on the season.

–Chargers QB Justin Herbert under 38.5 pass attempts (-115 at BetMGM)
After playing their last two games at home, the Chargers hit the road for a divisional matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City is on a five-game win streak after dropping their season opener to the Detroit Lions.

What’s interesting about this Chiefs team is the fact that they’ve been able to lean on their defense for much of the season.

Kansas City sits third for the fewest points allowed (88) in 2023. And against the pass, the Chiefs’ defense is tied for second in EPA.

While this matchup between two divisional foes has grown more competitive since Herbert’s arrival with the Chargers, the Oregon product is just 2-4 against the Chiefs with three straight losses.

The line movement for the total could be foretelling, given that it opened at 49, and it’s now down 47.5. That’s quite a drop considering that the last four totals in this series were at least 52.5 points.

Herbert’s head-to-head matchups against Kansas City provide a tell. He attempted over 38 passes in only one of six games against Kansas City.

Combined with Kansas City’s defense playing well, there is value in the under.

–Bears TE Robert Tonyan over 6.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
If starting quarterback Justin Fields (thumb) is out, this prop is even more attractive with rookie Tyson Bagent making his first NFL start. Despite signing as an undrafted free agent, Bagent defied the odds to make the Bears’ 53-man roster.

To say the odds were against him would be an understatement, mainly since he played his ball in Division II. Bagent did manage to break the NCAA touchdown passing record.

You don’t make it to the NFL if you don’t have the ability, and Chicago must’ve seen enough out of him in preseason to reward him with a roster spot. Nonetheless, this is quite a step up in class for the Shepherd University product.

I don’t see the Bears calling a ton of go routes with Bagent under center. Instead, look for him to play the role of a game manager to try and move his team up the field.

That should result in shorter passing plays and an increased usage of his tight ends. Based on the Bears’ snap counts by position, they’re using multiple tight end sets, which means Tonyan is getting opportunities to line up even with Cole Kmet (TE1) already on the field.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, Chicago’s offensive line is facing the fourth-highest pressure rate at 28.8%, so Bagent must get the ball out of his hands quickly.

Chicago’s protection woes should lead to more catching opportunities for their tight ends, particularly Tonyan.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media