Tag: Props

Dec 4, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) runs for the first down as Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Carlos Dunlap (8) makes the tackle during the fourth quarter at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Bengals at Chiefs Odds, Props & Picks

Posted on | by Field Level Media

In the playoffs, there’s no passer like Patrick Mahomes at home.

Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Bengals in the AFC Championship game Sunday in a repeat of the 2021 title game that sent Joe Burrow and Cincinnati to the Super Bowl. But there’s a significant twist.

Mahomes plans to play with a sprained right ankle and has lost three games in a row to the Bengals, including 27-24 on Dec. 4. His health and the groundswell of support for Burrow has the Chiefs as the underdog in the playoffs for the first time in Mahomes’ career.

Mahomes has been at his best on the big stage with 32 touchdowns (28 TD passes, four rushing) and three interceptions in 10 career home playoff starts.

The tug of war for bettors has been evident since Sunday night, when most books had the Chiefs as favorites — by 2 or 3 points — only to see the Bengals favored by 2 as a consensus by midday Monday. But with Mahomes’ status firmed up by the Chiefs and video evidence to support, the public forced a wild swing that had Kansas City favored by a point.

Burrow, mind you, is 19-5 against the spread in his last 24 games as an underdog. Cincinnati is 9-0 in its last nine as an underdog.

As of Friday morning, the Chiefs were a 1.5-point favorite and a low money line to win outright (-118 at FanDuel).

BetMGM’s handle on spread betting as of Noon ET Friday was 70-30 in favor of the Bengals. At DraftKings, the swing to give Cincinnati points pushed more money on straight spread bets toward the Bengals. DraftKings had 76 percent of the total spread handle on Cincinnati.

Money line wagering was also leaning Cincinnati and tipped the two-thirds mark at DraftKings.

The initial sprain forced him out of the Chiefs’ divisional playoff win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. He returned to the game with limited mobility, completing 22 of 30 passes for a season-low 195 yards with two touchdowns and was not sacked.

He’s 9-3 in 12 career playoff games with 30 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Mahomes said the injury isn’t as severe as his 2019 high ankle sprain or a toe injury two seasons ago, when he finished the season in a Super Bowl defeat at the hands of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The difference will be in physical limitations on his right ankle and plant leg throwing from the pocket.

Cincinnati has a 10-game winning streak and its most recent loss was to Cleveland on Halloween. Burrow would tie Russell Wilson for most wins (six) by a quarterback in their first three seasons if he can knock off the Chiefs again.

“He’s got an edge to him,” Bengals coach Zac Taylor said of Burrow. “I like that in our quarterback.”

He hasn’t been intercepted in his past three playoff games. In three starts against the Chiefs, Burrow has nine TDs (one rushing), one interception and a combined passer rating of 121.

A fumble by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce in the fourth quarter turned the game at Cincinnati in December, and kicker Harrison Butker missed a 55-yard field goal that would have sent the game into overtime.

Mahomes will start his fifth conference championship game.

PROP BETS
Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster under 46.5 yards (-110, FanDuel): With only 11 targets in the past four games combined and two in the playoff win over the Jaguars last week (29 yards), Smith-Schuster might be due. But his breakout isn’t coming here. The Bengals clamped him the regular-season clash in December, when he caught three of four targets for 35 yards. Smith-Schuster has been limited to 38 yards or fewer seven times in the past nine games.

Bengals RB Joe Mixon over 58.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM): Only four NFL teams played more base nickel or dime defense than the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo isn’t the type to change his stripes. He’s the type to rip with the front four and vary coverage. The Chiefs could apply more pressure if the Bengals, who didn’t have three starters on the offensive line at Buffalo last week, show leaks in protection. Methodical drives and a heavy reliance on plowing ahead with Mixon – 105 rushing yards last week — worked in beating the Bills, and Mixon had 88 rushing yards at Kansas City in the 2021 AFC Championship. Noteworthy: Mixon’s rushing total at FanDuel and DraftKings was set at 59.5.

Bengals LB Germaine Pratt over 6.5 tackles (-120 at BetMGM): This number includes solo plus assisted tackles. Pratt’s total was bet up to -140 at other books, and this one is a soft guarantee. Soft because he had only four total tackles when the teams met Dec. 4. He had eight or more tackles in nine games this season and a physically limited Mahomes brings the chances of short and quick throws, where Pratt could be in on double-digit stops.

Butker over 7.5 points (+105 at Caesars Sportsbook): Bend, don’t break. That’s the charge for Cincinnati against the Chiefs, a winning approach that resulted in back-to-back 27-24 wins for the Bengals. Butker missed a field goal in the December meeting that would’ve forced overtime – and given him nine total points for the game. With safeties deep and boundaries available, the Chiefs won’t have as many explosive plays – or points – but count on Kansas City consistently moving the ball into FG range.

–Field Level Media

Nov 27, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (24) runs with the ball as Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Mike Edwards (32) defends during the first half at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

NFL insights: Week 14 odds, props and picks

Posted on | by Field Level Media

From an opening line of 14.5, the Cowboys are pushing the largest spread in the NFL this season to three-touchdown territory for Sunday’s home game with the Houston Texans.

The number could continue to climb and make Dallas a historically large favorite.

That’s because the Texans are strangers to the end zone with seven total touchdowns in the past five games. The Cowboys?

Let’s just say they don’t have that problem. Dallas scored eight touchdowns last week against the Indianapolis Colts.

The last NFL team favored by 18 was the Arizona Cardinals last season against … the Houston Texans. Arizona covered -18 with a 31-5 victory over the Texans, who also lost as 17.5-point dogs to the Bills (40-0) in 2021.

Here’s a look at a few other numbers that might catch your eye entering Week 14:

–Dallas -4, first quarter spread, vs Houston (-110 at FanDuel)
The Cowboys aren’t killer in the first quarter, but Dallas does have 31 points in the first quarter in five games since Dak Prescott’s return from a thumb injury. Houston has 20 points in the first quarter — total — in 12 games in 2022.

–Chiefs TE Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions vs. Broncos (-105 at Caesars)
Kelce has 90 career receptions in 15 games against the Broncos and was limited to eight total catches the past two weeks.

–Steelers QB Kenny Pickett over 0.5 interceptions (-108 at Caesars)
Teams aren’t running the ball against the Ravens since LB Roquan Smith arrived. With a secondary featuring Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and safety Marcus Williams, Pickett’s four-game streak without an interception is in peril.

–Chargers vs Dolphins over 51.5 total points (-110 at BetMGM) and four or more first-half touchdowns (+170 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The over hit in 80 percent of Miami’s last five games and 60 percent of Los Angeles’ last 10.

–Bills -6 first-half spread vs. NYJ (-110 at FanDuel)
Buffalo put 10 points or more on the board in the second quarter alone in seven of the past eight games and had 14 first-half points against the Jets in the previous meeting this season. Only one of the Bills’ past eight opponents topped 10 points (Detroit, 14) in the first half. The Vikings had 20 points against the Jets in the first half last week, the third time in four games New York allowed double digits in the opening two quarters. The Jets have 12 total first-quarter points against the Bills in the past seven meetings.

–Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill alternate yardage total, over 124.5 yards (+145 at DraftKings)
Second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage, Hill has 140-plus receiving yards six times in 12 games this season. Last December against the Chargers (then as a WR for the Chiefs), Hill went bonkers: 12 catches for 148 yards, touchdown. Also see: Chargers injury report.

–Browns RB Nick Chubb over 74.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Chubb has 35 “big play” runs this season, which is any carry resulting in a gain of 10-plus yards. He’s historically stellar in the division matchup with over 100 yards rushing in three of the past four meetings with the Bengals.

–Field Level Media

Jan 17, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) carries the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half of an NFC Wild Card playoff football game at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

5 Best Prop Bets for Super Bowl LVI

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The prop market for Super Bowl LVI is starting to come into focus. Some lines have moved while others are simply juiced up in an attempt to scare you off.

Instead of worrying about those inflated numbers, we’re going to point you in the right direction for some big wins come Sunday.

Here are my 5 best prop bets for Super Bowl LVI between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.

Opening Kickoff To Be A Touchback – No (-112 at FanDuel)
Let’s start where the game starts – with the opening kickoff.

During the 2021 regular season, kickoffs resulted in touchbacks just more than 60 percent of the time, and the two kickers in this game – the Rams’ Matt Gay and the Bengals’ Evan McPherson – were slightly better at 62 percent (120 touchbacks in 193 kickoffs) this season.

While it seems like close to a 50-50 proposition here, there is one factor that swings the pendulum to “No” for me – the football. The ball for the Super Bowl isn’t the same as what these kickers have used throughout the regular season and other playoff games.

The commemorative football, which will head to the Hall of Fame following the game, is a heavier non-kicking ball that isn’t broken in. This has allowed for just two of the past 20 opening kickoffs in the Super Bowl to go for a touchback.

That’s right! This prop has hit “No” at a 90 percent clip over the past two decades. Seems like a no-brainer here at close to even money.

Game Score Props: First Scoring Play – Field Goal (+128 at FanDuel)
Now onto the first score of the game! Touchdown, field goal or safety?

Let’s throw out safety (+10000) as it has only happened once in the history of the Super Bowl. Huge payout, yes, but not this time.

We could go along with the public and take touchdown with -164 odds, but field goal, at plus odds, is the answer. McPherson has converted all 12 of his attempts in the playoffs and Gay is just behind at 7-for-8.

A field goal has been the first score in five of the past six Super Bowls. I’ll ride that wave to another early “W” in Super Bowl LVI.

Odell Beckham Jr. Anytime TD (+140 at BetMGM)
Beckham looks more and more like Giants version of OBJ.

He has six touchdown catches in 11 games with the Rams this season, including a score in one of the team’s three playoff games. In those three games, Beckham also has 23 targets.

With his target share trending up, it’s time for Beckham to show up on the biggest stage and catch a TD. It also wouldn’t be outlandish to snag OBJ at +1000 odds for the 1st Touchdown of the game.

Van Jefferson Receiving Yards – Over 30.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
We’re going to look at another Rams wide receiver for a receiving yards prop.

Jefferson is clearly behind Cooper Kupp and Beckham in the Rams’ passing game pecking order, but he has eclipsed this number in one of the team’s’ three playoff games and did it another 12 times in the regular season.

I’m looking for the second-year wideout to cash this one on a single play as the Bengals allowed 65 catches of 20-plus yards in the regular season and have given up another five such plays in the postseason.

Jefferson caught a 41-yard pass in the Wild Card round and I like him to hit on a big play for the Rams again, as well as the over on this prop.

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards – Over 25.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Even though I think the Rams win this game, we can’t leave the Bengals out of the mix when it comes to my best prop bets for the Super Bowl. With that in mind, I’m all over Joe Mixon’s receiving yards prop.

I expect the Bengals to be behind early, similar to the rest of their playoff games, and that means we could see a lot of Mixon in the passing game. He had four receptions for 28 yards in the Wild Card round, followed that up with six grabs for 51 yards in the Divisional Playoffs and then had another 3-for-27 in the AFC Championship Game.

That’s more than 25.5 receiving yards during each step of this miracle run for the Bengals. I expect Mixon to make it a clean sweep and top that number again in Super Bowl LVI.

–Pauly Parlays, Field Level Media

Nov 28, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) celebrates his touchdown pass by doing the TY Hilton celebration in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Ten tempting TD scorer props for Week 13

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Week 13 is here and it’s time to scan the board for the best touchdown scorer props of the weekend.

The approach is finding plus-odds spots. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is in a great spot to score this weekend, but at -200, we’re not chasing limited value.

Here are 10 touchdown props I’ve got my eye on for the NFL’s Week 13 action:

Colts WR Zach Pascal: +210
It’s always a good bet to slot in players who get the Houston Texans that week, considering how poor their defense has been throughout much of the season.

This week it’s Pascal, who is tied for the lead amongst Colts pass-catchers in red zone looks, with 11.

Pascal is the clear No. 2 receiver, playing over 90% of the snaps, and should have his opportunities against a vulnerable Houston secondary.

–Bengals RB Samaje Perine: +500
How do you feel about a vulture pick? At +500, I’m seriously intrigued by Perine.

The Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, and only one team sees more running back touchdowns against them than LA.

Joe Mixon is the bell-cow in this offense, but Perine has six red zone carries this season and will spell the Bengals top back at times in this game.

To me, it’s a worthy selection at these odds. It helps that this game is tied for the highest over/under of the weekend, at 50.5 points. Touchdowns will be scored.

–Eagles RB Boston Scott: +260
We included Scott in this piece last week and he delivered, so we’re loading him back again. No team allows more touchdowns per game to running backs than the New York Jets, seeing 1.91 per game.

It’s Scott and Miles Sanders in this backfield, but Scott has taken on a red zone role and will have his chances on Sunday.

–Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow: +140
Las Vegas ranks inside the top-ten in pass attempts and will be moving the ball through the air as much as they can against what has been a generous Washington secondary for much of the season.

In comes Renfrow, the top receiver for the Raiders. Renfrow leads the wide receivers in red zone targets with 12. Washington gives up the fourth most touchdowns per game to WRs.

–Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth: +210
Freiermuth has a touchdown in four of his last five games, and at +210 against a vulnerable Baltimore secondary, I’m liking his chances at another.

Freiermuth has 15 red zone looks this year, second on the team behind Najee Harris. The Ravens see the fourth-highest number of TDs to tight ends.

–Vikings WR Adam Thielen: +105
To slightly deviate from the odds from above, I love Thielen at +105.

The Lions secondary has been awful all season, a tremendous target for all wide receiver props. Thielen has 10 scores on the year and will look to make it 11 against a Detroit team that can’t stop pass-catchers.

–Seahawks RB Adrian Peterson: +290
If you want to take a flier pick, why not newly-signed Peterson on the Seahawks?

Pete Carroll claims Peterson was signed because Seattle wants to win now. With Alex Collins banged up, there’s a realistic chance AP sees meaningful time on Sunday.

San Francisco allows the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs.

–Cardinals TE Zach Ertz: +190
Ertz has been a focal point of the Arizona red zone offense since joining the team, and with Kyler Murray expected to return, I like his chances to find the end zone once again.

The Bears have given up three touchdowns to tight ends in their past three games. Ertz scored twice last week.

–Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate: +450
I’ve mentioned in previous articles, a baseline strategy to target touchdown props is looking at the games with the highest over/unders. Logic suggests more touchdowns will be scored. The Bucs-Falcons game fits the bill, with a total at 50.5 points.

The Tampa passing attack is loaded, and Brate is the one that gives us the best potential payout at +450 odds.

Brate has seven red zone targets in his past three games and plays around 35% of the snaps.

–Colts QB Carson Wentz: +450
For a fun one, we go back to the Houston Texans. This time, it’s Wentz to rush one in at +450.

Houston allows 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, the second-highest mark in the NFL. Is it that crazy that we bet on this big-bodied quarterback to take one himself near the goalline?

Touchdown props should be a mixture of data-based decisions with a mix of fun. This certainly sways to the fun side, but I’m rolling with it on Sunday.

–By Griffin Carroll (@Griffybets), Field Level Media

Oct 17, 2021; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones (11) warms up before the game between the Browns and the Arizona Cardinals at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Griffin Carroll: NFL Week 12 TD prop picks

Posted on | by Field Level Media

As we prepare for Week 12 in the NFL, I’m returning with touchdown scorer props for the Sunday slate.

Instead of the five picks I’ve done the past few weeks, I’m doubling the group to 10. Consider the players I have below and at the odds these props have, hitting just two out of five could net you a profitable day.

Another option is to juice up some parlays by combining some of these picks for a potentially big payout.
No matter how you choose to navigate these TD spots, know that I feel good about all of them.

Evan Engram, TE, Giants: +290
The Eagles have allowed eight touchdowns to TEs this season, good for third-most on a per-game basis.

With Kyle Rudolph banged up and potentially set to miss this game, Engram figures to play nearly every snap once again in an advantageous matchup.

Engram saw five targets last week and has scored twice this season.

Boston Scott, RB Eagles: +310
We stay in this game, picking a known Giant-killer in Eagles running back Boston Scott.

Scott is expected to see an expanded role this week with Jordan Howard out, and there’s been something about the New York Giants that elicits a big game from Scott.

Scott has played the Giants four times in the past two years, scoring a combined six touchdowns in those games.

No team has been running more often than the Eagles the past four weeks, and Scott is going to get his opportunities in this backfield.

Laquon Treadwell, WR, Jaguars: +400
With Jamal Agnew out for the season, Treadwell now becomes the third Jaguars receiver. Only one team allows more touchdowns per game than the Falcons and Treadwell brings some tremendous value at +400.

Treadwell played 72 percent of the offensive snaps last week and saw three targets.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers: +175
Aiyuk has been turning it on of late, averaging 6.5 targets per game in his past four, with two touchdowns in that span.

Minnesota allows the fourth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers, and Aiyuk offers more value than Deebo Samuel at these odds.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, Patriots: +210
Sticking with defenses that allow more touchdowns to the wide receiver position, we’ve got the Titans.

Tennessee gives up the sixth-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers, and Bourne has been leading New England’s pass-catchers in production lately.

Bourne has four or more targets in five straight games with just one touchdown to show for it. With Mac Jones continuing to show his comfortability in this offense, it’s easier to trust the Patriots’ receivers.

DJ Moore, WR, Panthers: +190
Moore is the top receiver on this Carolina team by a significant margin, and +190 is strong value for a WR1.

Moore scored last week in Cam Newton’s first week as a starter and draws a Dolphins team that allows the fifth-most passing touchdowns per game.

Noah Fant, TE, Broncos: +210

This one’s straightforward. Fant leads all Broncos pass-catchers in red zone looks and plays a Chargers defense that gives up the most TDs per game to the tight end position.

Fant is a key part of this offense and will be looking to find pay dirt in a pivotal divisional fight.

Rex Burkhead, RB, Texans: +275
You’re likely on the strategy now with these touchdown scorers: finding defenses that are particularly vulnerable to a certain position.

Well, in comes the New York Jets, who are by far the most generous defense to running back success.

The Jets allow 2.1 touchdowns per game to running backs, and I like Burkhead to capitalize.

Burkhead took 18 carries last week, a season-high, and had three looks in the red zone. He’s a part of this offense and brings some strong value at +275.

Ryan Griffin, TE, Jets: +380
With Tyler Kroft on IR, Griffin has been the Jets’ top tight end. Griffin has 13 targets in his past three games and faces a Texans team that has been generous to all positions, but tight ends in particular.

Only three teams allow more tight end touchdowns than Houston, and with Griffin’s usage, he’s worth a look.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Browns: +300
I love Peoples-Jones at +300 on “Sunday Night Football” in what is a crucial AFC North game for the Browns.
Peoples-Jones is WR2 in Cleveland since the release of Odell Beckham Jr. and will play a Baltimore defense that has been susceptible to deep passing plays all season.

Peoples-Jones has three touchdowns in his past three games and is the Browns vertical threat. At these odds, I’m loading up the Browns’ young pass-catcher and betting on an explosive play.

-Follow Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) and check out his work at bettingwithdata.com.

Super Bowl 53 Odds: Updated for Week 11

Super Bowl 53 Odds: Updated for Week 11

Posted on | by Martin Chandler

Key takeaways from week 10:

  • Rams Saints and Chiefs are favorites to win Super Bowl 53
  • Patriots fall from the top 3
  • Raiders have the lowest odds at 2500/1
  • Biggest jump: Cleveland Browns (+50%)
  • Biggest drop: Arizona Cardinals (-150%)
  • No change: Broncos, Bills, 49ers (0%)

Super Bowl 53 Odds

{{CODE_SB_ODDS_AFTER_WEEK_10}}

Super Bowl 53 Odds: Updated for Week 10

Super Bowl 53 Odds: Updated for Week 10

Posted on | by Martin Chandler

Key takeaways from week 9:

  • Saints replace the Chiefs, joining the Rams and Patriots as the top three spots
  • 49ers have the lowest odds at 2000/1
  • Biggest jump: Atlanta Falcons (+31.8%)
  • Biggest drop: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills (-100%)
  • No change: Chiefs, Texans, Colts, Dolphins, Cardinals, Giants (0%)

Super Bowl 53 Odds

{{CODE_SB_ODDS_AFTER_WEEK_9}}

HEISMAN TROPHY WINNER PROPS: UPDATED THROUGH WEEK 10

Heisman Trophy Winner Props: Updated through Week 10

Posted on | by Martin Chandler

Tua Tagovailoa was already the favorite at 4/11 odds. After this week, his odds got better, and every other Heisman trophy candidate’s odds decreased. Also, his team just shut out the 3rd ranked LSU Tigers.

Note: The change column indicates the percentage change in the odds of each player. Positive change labeled in green means the player is getting bet and his odds are lower, while the negative change in red means the player’s odds have regressed.

Heisman Trophy Winner Props

{{CODE_HEISMAN_WEEK_10}}

What To Look For - Divisional Playoffs

NFL Week 9 Football Props: Seahawks vs. Chargers

Posted on | by Martin Chandler

For the Seattle Seahawks, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster season. They seem to be playing well, but nobody is talking about them as serious playoff contenders. They’re three losses have each been by only one score, and they came dangerously close to handing the Rams their first loss a few weeks back.

Everybody has been talking about the fact the Chargers are 5-2, and that their only losses have come from the Rams and the Chiefs, 2 of the top teams in the NFL. However, their 5 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, Raiders, 49ers and Titans who share a dismal combined record of 10-29-1. They’ve really only experienced the best and the worst of the NFL, which makes this Sunday’s matchup vs the Seahawks so important. Not only will it keep them in the running in the AFC West, but it will offer a chance for them to play a middle of the pack team with a lot to gain from a win. Seattle sits in 2nd in the NFC West behind the Rams, and will need a lot of help if they’re going to catch up.

The Chargers will be rooting for the Browns this weekend, and Seattle will be hoping the Drew Brees can continue his hot streak against the Rams. Both of these teams are in the playoff race for wild card spots, and even possibly as divisional winners, but it will take a lot for them to catch up to their divisional rivals. The Chargers come into Seattle as 1 point favorites, but Everyone knows that the Seahawks at home are a dangerous team.

Alternate lines are available at Sugar House Sportsbook if you live in the state of New Jersey.

Seahawks vs. Chargers Props

{{CODE_CHARGERS_AT_SEAHAWKS_WEEK9_2018}}