Jan 2, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Wildcard TD props: A pick for 6 in every game

Wildcard Weekend, one of the most exciting weekends of the year in the NFL, offers six games to determine the divisional round matchups.

Betting opportunities are plentiful as each playoff game is in a standalone timeslot.

We evaluated all six games and came up with one touchdown scorer prop we like in every matchup.

–AFC wildcard game at Cincinnati
Las Vegas Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals
My favorite touchdown pick is Joe Mixon, but at -165 odds, it’s not the best option as a straight bet.

Mixon is the clear RB1 in Cincinnati, leading the team in red zone usage by a sizable margin. He has 51 total looks, and the next closest option inside the 20 has 13.

The Raiders allow 1.35 touchdowns per game to running backs, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Mixon to score once is a great option in a parlay.

Data shows the Bengals’ offense is the best spot to target, given the defensive vulnerabilities of the Raiders, and the position group of interest keeps coming back to RB. The Raiders are stingy against wide receiver scoring.

Mixon scored twice against the Raiders earlier this year, and the numbers suggest that could happen.

Best Bet: Joe Mixon to Score 2 TDs (+380 on FanDuel)

–AFC wildcard game at Orchard Park, N.Y.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
This is the third matchup between the AFC East rivals since Dec. 6. The first game in Buffalo was a low-scoring affair due to heavy winds, while the second contest showcased more scoring. The Bills won at Foxborough on Dec. 26 by a 33-21 count.

Weather isn’t expected to be a major factor, but the projected temperature at kickoff is 3 degrees.

Something about the playoffs and big games tends to get Josh Allen moving with his legs, and it’s here we’ll focus on a touchdown prop bet.

In four postseason games, Allen has averaged 59.25 rushing yards, scoring once. Allen has also been the leading rusher for Buffalo in both games against New England this season.

With six rushing touchdowns on the year, Allen has comfortably demonstrated the ability to get in the end zone with his legs. I like him to do it again. The past two seasons, Allen has rushed for a touchdown in 9 of 19 home games, good for a 47% rate.

Best Bet: Josh Allen TD (+180 on DraftKings)

–NFC wildcard game at Tampa, Fla.
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
No team allows more touchdowns to tight ends than Philadelphia.

That would suggest Rob Gronkowski is in for a big game, and he’s no stranger to postseason success. Gronk’s odds on FanDuel are +125, a solid option.

We turn our attention to the Eagles’ side, instead, and namely quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Hurts has 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 games this season, and scored twice against Tampa Bay in their previous meeting.

The Philly running back group has some question marks. Miles Sanders has a broken hand and Jordan Howard has been nursing a stinger and looking less effective of late.

Hurts is the constant in this rushing attack with an innate nose for the goal line. His odds are solid at major sportsbooks, but slightly better on FanDuel.

Best Bet: Jalen Hurts TD (+220 on FanDuel)

–NFC wildcard game at Arlington, Texas
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
The highest projected total of the weekend should bring plenty of touchdowns, as two of the more explosive offenses in the NFL face off on Sunday afternoon.

Both offenses should have an edge when they see the field. Dallas averages the sixth-most passing attempts per game and will get a vulnerable San Fran secondary.

The Niners have been running at will for most of the season and get a Cowboys run defense that comes in ranked as a below-average unit on both Pro Football Focus and DVOA.

It’s hard to ignore the consistency of Deebo Samuel, who has scored at least once in 7 of his last 8 games.

Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, Samuel gets the ball no matter where the 49ers are on the field.

You’d like better odds, but sometimes it’s best to follow reliability.

Best Bet: Deebo Samuel TD (-115 on DraftKings)

–AFC wildcard game at Kansas City, Mo.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is the largest favorite this weekend, which can be read in a few ways. On one hand, the Chiefs should be able to put up points, which makes honing in on their offense the safe path.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh is likely to be throwing throughout the game as they play catch up, which gives us a positional group of focus.

On paper, the Chiefs’ biggest advantage is on the ground, but betting on this backfield has been a frustrating endeavor all season. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams and even Derrick Gore getting touches, it feels like a dart throw to guess which one finds the end zone.

Pittsburgh pass-catchers seem certain to be busy, namely Diontae Johnson.

Johnson is Big Ben’s top target and had seven red-zone targets the past three games.

The Chiefs have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns per game to WRs, further supporting this angle.

Johnson scored just three weeks ago against this same Kansas City defense, and I’ll be betting on him to do it again.

Best Bet: Diontae Johnson TD (+180 on DraftKings)

–NFC wildcard game at Inglewood, Calif.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Wild Card Weekend extends to Monday Night, where we’ll be treated to a third game between the Cardinals and Rams.

No team allows more wide receiver touchdowns than Arizona. In eight regular-season home games, Los Angeles has thrown 21 touchdowns and ran in just two.

Cooper Kupp is the preferred pick here if you parlay your touchdown picks, but at -165, that’s poor value on a straight bet. We will mention here that Kupp has scored 16 touchdowns this season, with 1+ in 11 of 17 games this season.

To secure better odds, we’ll shift to Odell Beckham. Since the Rams bye week in Week 11, OBJ has found the end zone in 5 of 7 games, including against these Cardinals.

Beckham is second among Rams pass-catchers in red zone targets since Week 12 and should have the opportunities Monday.
Best Bet: Odell Beckham TD (+140 on DraftKings)

If you wanted to shoot for the stars with a touchdown parlay, the above six picks — including Mixon to score once — combine for +16284 odds on DraftKings.

–By Griffin Carroll (@griffybets), Field Level Media

Dec 26, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud (14) catches a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Week 18 TD Props: Something to parlay for

The final full NFL Sunday of the year is here.

We pegged down a handful of winners last week, so let’s finish the regular season strong with touchdown scorer props in Week 18.

Here are five of my favorite touchdown bets this weekend in the NFL.

Steelers WR Ray-Ray McCloud: +450 on BetMGM
McCloud of the Pittsburgh Steelers has not yet scored this season, but the receiver is seeing consistent volume near the goal line. McCloud had five red zone targets last week and has seen at least one target in the red zone in four straight weeks.

You’ll see as a likely constant throughout this piece is a preference for games that matter. The last week of the NFL season sometimes gets funky, with young players seeing more snaps and starters getting pulled.

Luckily, this game is not one of those cases, with both the Steelers and Ravens still alive in the postseason race.

Speaking of the Ravens, few defenses have struggled slowing down receivers quite like Baltimore this year. Only four teams have allowed more touchdowns to WRs than the Ravens, so there’s going to be opportunities for a Pittsburgh pass-catcher in this one.

I’ll take a chance on McLoud to finally score at +450.

Ravens WR Marquise Brown: +190 on BetMGM
Let’s stick with this game for a moment and load up Marquise Brown. The best odds are once again at BetMGM, with DraftKings/FanDuel closer to +150.

Tyler Huntley will be starting for the third time in four weeks to wrap the season for the Ravens, who as mentioned are still alive and will be fighting to win.

In Huntley’s two most recent starts, Brown has seen 14 and 8 targets, and should once again be heavily involved in the passing game.

Pittsburgh let up the eighth-most touchdowns per game to WRs.

49ers RB Elijah Mitchell: +140 on FanDuel
The 49ers are in an important game against the Rams, with their wildcard hopes on the line. We turn to Mitchell, as LA has been more generous to rushing scores, ranking second-best in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed.

Mitchell returned in Week 17 and commanded the work out of this backfield, taking 21 carries for 119 yards. While he didn’t score, Mitchell did find the end zone in his two previous starts. I like the +140 odds here.

Two-Leg Parlay: Devin Singletary and D’Onta Foreman TDs (+203 on FanDuel)
I’m combining these two picks to give us favorable odds, since both come in closer to -140 on their own.

Let’s start with Singletary of the Bills, who will play the Jets.

I’ve been betting running backs to score against New York on a weekly basis, as no team allows more touchdowns to the position than the Jets (1.63 per game).

Singletary has taken hold of the top running back position in Buffalo and has a whopping 20 red zone looks in the past three weeks.

He’s also scored four touchdowns in the past three weeks, momentum I like seeing in a parlay.

Now for Foreman. He too gets himself a soft opponent in Houston, who allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game.

Foreman is averaging 3.4 red zone looks per game in his last five, scoring in three of four.

Both running backs have established roles near the end zone, soft opponents, and perhaps most importantly, something to play for.

Buffalo clinches the AFC East with a win and Tennessee secures the coveted first round bye with a win. Love this play.

Chargers TE Jared Cook: +240 on FanDuel
Speaking of games that matter, there isn’t a more cut-and-dry example than the Chargers-Raiders on Sunday Night Football. It’s win and you’re in for these two teams.

It’s always good to get a touchdown scorer prop in for SNF to have a rooting interest for the final game of the day, and Cook has us covered.

The Raiders allow the third-most touchdowns to tight ends, and Cook is back after spending a week on the COVID list.

Cook sees a steady stream of targets from Justin Herbert, with 5+ in three straight games. He’ll get his chances on Sunday against this Raiders defense, and with their defensive attention likely diverted to Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, I like Cook to slip through the cracks and score.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

Nov 21, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (83) in action against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Week 14 TD Prop Picks: Marquez Valdes-Scantling TD on SNF

We’re back for Week 14 in the NFL with touchdown props you should have on your radar. I’ll be taking these at both an individual level and likely building them into a parlay for some fun.

For touchdown scorers, it’s best to find players with plus-odds. For example, I love Javonte Williams against the Lions this weekend, but his odds are currently -175.

Browns TE Austin Hooper: +280 on FanDuel
The Ravens are tied for the fourth-most TDs allowed to tight ends, so it was an immediate spot to dig into.

Austin Hooper of the Browns is the top TE on this team. He played 90 percent of the snaps in their last game (against this same Ravens team) and has seen steady target volume, averaging 4.6 per game in his last five.

With David Njoku out this weekend, Hooper’s stock is even higher. Love this value in what I expect to be much higher-scoring than the 16-10 game these teams played in Week 12.

Panthers WR DJ Moore: +160 on Caesars
At first glance, I considered including Tommy Tremble (+550) in this game, considering the Buccaneers just had three tight end touchdowns against the Falcons.
Atlanta’s numbers against TEs are a bit inflated off that performance, having held TEs out of the end zone for five straight games prior to last week.

Generosity to wide receiver scoring has been consistent, allowing 1.25 WR touchdowns per game.

In slots DJ Moore, the top receiver on the Panthers by a significant margin. Moore had a red zone target in each of Cam Newton’s first two starts and has played 95 percent of the snaps the past two weeks.

With consistent volume against a soft opponent, I’ll gladly take Moore at +160.

D’Onta Foreman: +150 on DraftKings
The Jaguars allow one rushing touchdown per game, on average, and D’Onta Foreman seems to be the top back in Tennessee, at least near the goal line.

Foreman had six red-zone carries in the Titans’ most recent game. Interestingly, he’s failed to get into the end zone this season. While I don’t like chasing someone who feels “due,” the volume is there to yield a touchdown sooner before later.

Not many softer opponents than Jacksonville, which allows the fourth-most points per game.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: -125 on DraftKings
This goes against my edict of plus-money only, but we can’t ignore the matchup Travis Kelce has for himself on Sunday.

The Raiders allow the most yards to tight ends and the second-most touchdowns per game to the position. When these two teams met in Week 10, Kelce finished with eight catches for 119 yards, but it was backup TE Noah Gray who caught a touchdown.

Las Vegas has seen a tight end score against them in seven of their past nine games, and Kelce gives us the volume to get in the end zone.

I will be including Kelce in one of my touchdown parlays. If you’d rather take a shot at Kelce having a big game, you can bet him to score twice at +450 on DraftKings.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara To Score Two TDs: +350 on DraftKings
Alvin Kamara is back, and boy do the Saints need his juice on offense. He’ll get the best-case scenario for a return game against the Jets, which has had the worst defense against running backs all season.

The Jets allow 1.83 touchdowns per game to RBs, and given Kamara’s massive usage rate in this offense, I like his chances to find the end zone twice. Kamara has scored twice or more in a game six times since the beginning of last season.

Alternatively, Kamara to score at -175 is another great addition to a touchdown parlay.

Bills WR Stefon Diggs: +140 on BetMGM
Stefon Diggs leads Buffalo in all major receiving categories — playing time, targets and red-zone work — so he’s always a good bet to find the end zone.

Diggs has seven touchdowns this season and will face a Tampa Bay team that sees the most pass attempts per game against them.

In what is a must-win game for Buffalo, it would behoove Josh Allen to look to his most talented receiver.

The Bucs allow 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, tied for the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.

Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling: +170 on DraftKings
The Bears defense is ranked 22nd in pass DVOA and is allowing receivers to rack up the seventh-highest touchdown rate against them.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay’s deep threat, has seen serious volume lately, with 19 targets in his past two games, averaging 75.5 percent snaps played in that span.

Considering his role in this offense and that the Bears have seen the ninth-most 40-plus-yard passes completed against them, I like MVS on “Sunday Night Football.”

I expect Green Bay to dominate and put up points in bunches, so let’s end our Sunday in style.

–By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

For more from Griffin Carroll, follow him on Twitter @griffybets.

Nov 7, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) attempts to catch a pass against Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward (21) in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 NFL TD prop picks

Last week wasn’t perfect, but we did identify the right games with the exception of the disaster of a performance from the Atlanta Falcons.

Four of the five players I highlighted had teammates at the same position score. To me, that’s validation of the data-driven approach.

There’s always a randomness at play when betting touchdown scorers, but if you stay true to targeting soft spots, there’s data to support these bets in the long-term.

I’ve gone a step further this week by also looking at the teams who pass and rush for the most touchdowns and finding overlaps where they play a team that allows the most touchdowns either through the air or on the ground.

For example, the Titans score 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game, the most in the NFL. They play the Texans this weekend who allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.7). That’s the type of overlap we’re looking for.

Couple that with red zone strengths and high-usage players, and I’m feeling good about the touchdown scorers this weekend.

–Five TD Scorer Props this Sunday

To reiterate, this piece can be used just as much as a resource as it can be a look into best bets. While last week showed that we had the right spots circled, there are a lot of players on the field, so consider their teammates as well.

We focus on plus-odds bets only to give us some leeway for profit. For example, against an extremely poor Lions run defense, Nick Chubb is a strong option to score. At -165 odds, it’s not great value.

If you like to place TD parlays then by all means, load up Chubb – I likely will myself.

Time to focus up, here are my five favorite touchdown scorers in Week 11. Odds are courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel.

–James Robinson +130 on DraftKings

James Robinson is in a good spot in this game against the 49ers. For starters, Jacksonville scores a touchdown on 60% of their red zone trips, a top-15 mark.
San Francisco is a below-average red zone defense and allow the third-most rushing touchdowns per game at 1.3.

Robinson has his role locked up with Jacksonville, leading the team in red zone usage and carries. Robinson has found the end zone in five games this year and has had an efficient season out of the backfield.

–Cole Beasley +175 on DraftKings

Beasley left the Bills Week 10 game against the Jets early with an injury, but all reports indicate he’s good to go for this big game against the Indianapolis Colts.

This initially hit my radar as an example of a strong RZ offense against a poor RZ defense, but it was studying how the Colts let up touchdowns that makes this an official play.

Only one team allows more passing touchdowns per game than this Indy defense, and Beasley is second on the Bills in red zone targets.

Prior to leaving Week 10 early, Beasley saw 13 and 11 total targets in back-to-back weeks, a significant uptick in volume.

Beasley has just one touchdown this season, which only makes me think he’s due. At +175, this feels like a strong spot for Beasley to score.

–D’Onta Foreman +125 on FanDuel
We alluded to this above, but one of the clear spots to target this weekend is the Titans running game against this Texans defense.

The man that gets the nod in my book is Foreman, who slightly out-snapped Adrian Peterson last week, saw three red zone carries and just looked to be the most efficient with the ball in his hands.

Tennessee should find the end zone repeatedly against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. With their proclivity for scoring on the ground (the highest rushing TDs per game), their group of runners is the right place to look.

Adrian Peterson is a factor and +160 to score, he has five red zone carries the past two weeks.

–Tee Higgins +150 on FanDuel
Full transparency, I have been including Tee Higgins to score in my touchdown parlays for three straight weeks and you guessed it, he hasn’t scored yet.

Higgins is a key cog in this Cincinnati Bengals’ passing attack, playing over 75% of the snaps and seeing 8.1 targets per game.

Higgins leads this group of pass-catches in red zone targets but hasn’t scored since Week 2!

Las Vegas has the 31st-ranked red zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a 75% rate. They’re particularly vulnerable to passing touchdowns, seeing the fifth-most per game, while Joe Burrow and the Bengals toss the fifth-most passing scores per game.

This is a perfect union of value and my favorite touchdown play of the day.

–Michael Gallup +160 on FanDuel
The Dallas-Kansas City game is the highest projected total of the weekend (56.5 points) and well worth a touchdown bet.

This game screams shootouts with two strong offenses and two less-than-stellar defenses, so I’ll load up the Dallas receiver with the most value, Michael Gallup.

Gallup returned to the Cowboys lineup for the first time since Week 1, playing 53% of the snaps and seeing five targets.

As a piece of this offense in a high-scoring game, I love the odds here. The Chiefs allow the seventh-highest passing TDs per game while Dallas scores primarily through the air (2.4 per game, third in the NFL).

With Amari Cooper now on the COVID list, Gallup’s usage only figures to jump.

-Follow Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) and check out his work at bettingwithdata.com.