The Detroit Lions travel to Green Bay to face the Packers on Thursday night in what shapes up to be a critical early-season showdown between the NFC North rivals.
Both teams enter the kickoff to Week 4 at 2-1 — the Packers coming from behind to win in New Orleans last Sunday while the Lions beat Atlanta by two touchdowns at home.
Detroit is a rare road favorite at Lambeau Field, with the Lions favored by 2.0 points.
QUICK PICK
The Lions are averaging 24 points per game and will keep the heat on Jordan Love and the Packers to continue to put points on the board. That’s something Green Bay was struggling to do against New Orleans’ stout defense until the Saints lost quarterback Derek Carr to an injury last Sunday.
This is a statement game for Detroit, which stamps its legitimacy in the NFC contender picture with a rare win at Lambeau. The Lions’ spread line has seen one-sided action at BetMGM, drawing 77 percent of the total bets and 74 percent of the money. Similarly, Detroit has been backed by 70 and 68 percent of the spread-line action, respectively, at BetRivers.
Prediction: Lions 27, Packers 23
PROP PICK
The Lions have won five of their past six road games and have covered the spread in 10 consecutive games against NFC North opponents, according to BetRivers. Four of Detroit’s past five games have gone under the total points line, but we see that trend reversing Thursday night.
We like the Over on 45 points, which has drawn 73 percent of the money at the book.
THE NEWS
The Packers last beat the Lions in Week 2 of the 2021 season, and Detroit ushered in the Love era by beating Aaron Rodgers in the regular-season finale at Lambeau Field last season (20-16).
Lions coach Dan Campbell started the week with a sleepover in his own office Sunday night, burying the idea of enjoying the win over the Falcons for 24 hours. But he gets goosebumps thinking about the atmosphere that awaits the Lions, whose season-ending win in January also was in prime time.
“I told the rookies yesterday, ‘Get ready to live, man. This is good stuff here. These are the things that you’ll never forget when you’re done playing,’” Campbell said.
Love rallied the Packers from a 17-point deficit entering the fourth quarter to beat the Saints, 18-17, in his first home start last week.
KEY PLAYERS READY TO ROLL
Lions running back David Montgomery and left tackle Taylor Decker are expected to play while cornerback Emmanuel Moseley (knee, hamstring) is not, according to the NFL Network. Montgomery, 26, sat out last week with a thigh injury, with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs rushing 17 times for 80 yards in his absence.
Decker, 30, has missed the last two games due to an ankle injury. If Decker holds up, right tackle Penei Sewell can return to his usual position. However, tackle Matt Nelson (ankle) and guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee) were ruled out.
Even if the front five isn’t whole, Campbell expects pass protection in front of Jared Goff to be better and for the running game to make progress. After rushing for 2,179 yards last season, Detroit is averaging a full yard less per carry — 3.6 yards and 24th in the NFL — through three games in 2023.
For the Packers, running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Christian Watson are expected to play. Both were listed as questionable on Wednesday with hamstring injuries, though Watson said he plans to make his season debut this week.
Jones, 28, sustained his injury at the end of his 35-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Green Bay’s 38-20 season-opening victory and sat out the past two games.
Green Bay’s ground game is down as well (3.43 yards per carry ranks 26th), denting the Packers’ play-action passing attack.
Watson, 24, hasn’t played this season after collecting seven TDs as a rookie. He caught five passes for 104 yards in the Week 18 loss to the Lions last season. Jones had 21 total carries for 73 yards in two losses to the Lions in 2022.
“We’ve got a lot of ball in front of us and obviously we’ve got a great test in front of us. It would certainly help us if those two guys were available,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said.
Packers left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) and left guard Elgton Jenkins (knee) were ruled out.
RED-HOT ROOKIE
Behind a makeshift line the past two weeks, Goff is consistently connecting with rookie Sam LaPorta, including a 45-yard touchdown in Week 3. LaPorta has 18 receptions in his first three games, an NFL record for a tight end. He’s second on the team to Amon-Ra St. Brown (21-275-1) in catches.
LaPorta has one touchdown through three games, but the rookie being the first player to score on Thursday night (+1500) has been the most popular player prop at BetMGM. St. Brown scoring at any point during the game has been the second most popular at far shorter +115 odds.
KEY STAT
10 — The number of September games Jones has scored a touchdown in out of his past 13 played.
TALKING RIVALRY
–“Certainly you want these more, because they’re for the division. These count. They have a significant impact on being a division winner.” –Campbell
–“I know what they’re all about. It’s a tough, gritty team.” –LaFleur
–Field Level Media
