Nov 9, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA;  Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) passes in the first half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 Player Props: Bryce Young airs it out

Four teams are off this week, but there is plenty of opportunity on the board in the player prop market.

It’s also a time of year to be a cautious shopper.

Even with a good handicap, the margins can be razor-thin this time of the year. For example, who could’ve foreseen the Colts’ backup running back, Zack Moss, carrying the ball just once despite not being on the injury report?

If you’re like me and expected Moss to eat into some of Jonathan Taylor’s carries, it wasn’t a predictable surprise.

Such are the risks with this racket. But we’re looking to avoid a similar pitfall with our player props for Week 11.

–Panthers QB Bryce Young over 34.5 pass attempts (-105 at DraftKings)
After opening as a nine-point home underdog against the Dallas Cowboys, the Carolina Panthers are now catching 10.5 points heading into Sunday. One thing we’ve seen with this Cowboys team is that they can be a bit of a bully.

Dallas is 4-1 straight up and against the spread when laying six or more points as a favorite this season. Their average margin of victory in those four wins is 27.5 points.

Things could turn ugly in a hurry for a Panthers team with the fewest wins (1-8) in the league. But we see the Panthers are willing to let Young take his lumps while learning on the job in his rookie campaign.

Young started eight of the nine games thus far while missing one due to injury and popped up on the injury report Thursday but is planning to play. Panthers backup quarterback Andy Dalton has yet to throw a pass in a game where Young was the starter.

In all four games that Young started where the Panthers lost by double digits, he finished with 38 or more pass attempts.

Should the Panthers trail big in this game, the organization seems content to keep Young on the field to further his development, particularly if facing the backups on an opposing team’s roster.

–Cowboys RB Tony Pollard under 16.5 rush attempts (-125 at BetMGM)
Despite being known to have a prolific rushing attack in recent memory, the Cowboys are running the ball less this season than last year.

According to TeamRankings, the Cowboys have a 43.5 percent run rate compared to 47.3 percent in the previous campaign. Interestingly, since the Cowboys already have four blowout wins, one would think they’d maintain their run rate or even exceed it.

However, the numbers clearly show that hasn’t been the case. It’s worth noting that Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy took over play-calling duties in the offseason after firing Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.

Last season, the Cowboys finished 18th in explosive plays of 20 or more yards. This season, they’re currently fourth using the same metric.

Based on those findings, the Cowboys are looking to push the ball down the field more than ever. And if they can build a big cushion in these games, there’s less need to give Pollard a heavy workload.

Backup running back Rico Dowdle has proven just as capable, considering that he’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry compared to 3.9 for Pollard. And while I don’t see Pollard losing his role as the lead back, I project he’ll once again settle for fewer carries on Sunday.

–Packers QB Jordan Love over 19.5 completions (-115 at BetMGM)
The Chargers (4-5) are trying to get back to .500 when they visit the Green Bay Packers. Los Angeles is laying three points on the road after opening as a 2.5-point favorite.

Despite having five losses, the Chargers have faced the third toughest schedule in the league. Only one of their defeats came against a team below .500 in a 27-24 overtime setback.

While the Chargers boast a sixth-ranked offense in expected points added (EPA), their defense ranks 29th in EPA. Big plays in the passing game have been too easy to come by for most opponents.

Opposing quarterbacks can have success against this Chargers unit, as it ranks 31st in completions (26.4) allowed per game.

Love completes more passes at home (60.5 percent) than on the road (56.9 percent). He’s completed at least 20 passes in four straight games while also exceeding this number in each of his starts at Lambeau Field.

With clear skies, temperatures in the mid-40s and 5-6 mph winds, the football weather should be a boost to Love going over his completion prop.

–Field Level Media

It's the Andy Reid Bowl. Or Kelce Clash. Super Bowl 57.5? By any name, the Monday night matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles has natural Super Bowl vibes. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 NFL Capsules

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Cleveland Browns (6-3): In pursuit of AFC North-leading Baltimore, already a Week 11 winner, the Browns and Steelers are leading with defense. That’s especially true with Cleveland turning to rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Deshaun Watson (shoulder) is out for the season after being injured last week. DTR is an electric athlete who makes his second start under better circumstances than the first, a 28-3 loss at Baltimore. He learned less than three hours before kickoff against the Ravens that he’d be the first-team QB, and threw three INTs while being sacked four times. Cleveland’s defense is built to be a great asset to any quarterback. The Browns are getting their second look at Kenny Pickett and the Steelers, who won the Week 2 matchup 26-22. T.J. Watt’s 16-yard fumble return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter was the difference. Each team has won four of its past five games.

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (7-2): The Lions play five of their final eight games against their three NFC North rivals, beginning with a home matchup against the last-place Bears on Sunday. The Lions are seeking their first division title since 1993, back when it was known as the Central division and included the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. “If you aspire to win a division, you have to win your division games,” Detroit coach Dan Campbell said. “That’s the bottom line here.” The Lions hold a 1 1/2-game advantage over Minnesota, which has won five straight games. They’ll play the Vikings twice in the last three games of the season. Detroit’s task against Chicago might be a little more difficult with the return of QB Justin Fields. He has recovered from a right thumb injury that cost him four games. Detroit’s offensive playmakers piled up big numbers in the 41-38 thriller over the Chargers last week. QB Jared Goff threw for 333 yards and two touchdowns. Amor-Ra St. Brown caught eight of those passes for 156 yards and a score. The 1-2 backfield punch of former Bears starter David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 193 yards and three touchdowns.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (3-6): Los Angeles is optimistic the playoffs are possible despite losing three of its past five games. The Chargers are coming off a 41-38 setback on a last-second field goal to the Lions. Chargers QB Justin Herbert said he and his teammates remain confident. The team scored a season high in points last week, however it also surrendered a season high in points. To catch Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, the Chargers must slow down Packers quarterback Jordan Love. He passed for 289 yards and two touchdowns, and rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed hauled in five catches for 84 yards and a score for his best performance of the season. The Packers have a 10-2 advantage in the all-time series. Winning close games isn’t Green Bay’s forte this season and the Packers gave up a second-half lead and lost 23-19 to the Steelers last week. Of six defeats this season, four were one-score games they fumbled on the road: at Atlanta (25-24), at Las Vegas (17-13), at Denver (19-17) and last week.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Miami Dolphins (6-3): The Raiders are 2-0 since firing Josh McDaniels and handing the keys to Antonio Pierce, who has quickly energized the squad. The visit to Miami is the only road contest during a six-game stretch for the Raiders. “We were fortunate that my first two games were at home,” Pierce said of the shift since he replaced McDaniels. “Now we are on the road. It’s good to go through adversity. (Miami) is a good football team.” Miami leads the AFC East by 1 1/2 games over the Buffalo Bills and has outscored opponents by averaging 31.7 points per game. The Raiders average 17.2 points this season. Rookie speedster RB De’Von Achane had seven touchdowns before missing the past four games and could be ready to return from a knee injury. Miami dropped two of its past three games, but the setbacks were to last season’s Super Bowl teams (Chiefs and Eagles). Raiders RB Josh Jacobs is rejuvenated under new leadership. He rushed for a then-season-best 98 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-6 win over the Giants in Pierce’s coaching debut and another season high with 116 yards in last Sunday’s 16-12 win over the Jets.

New York Giants (2-8) at Washington Commanders (4-6): Rookie Tommy DeVito gets the call again for the Giants and he draws the Commanders’ defense, which allowed Seattle to score on its final three possessions in a 29-26 loss last week after blowing a late lead against the Eagles prior to that. The Commanders went from No. 3 in yards allowed in 2022 to the fourth-worst entering Week 11. New York has lost seven of its last eight with the lone win coming at home over Washington, 14-7, on Oct. 22. Despite that defeat, the Commanders are a double-digit favorite for the first time since 2017. Health woes continue to haunt the Giants, who are depending on RB Saquon Barkley to move the chains and keep the offense in the game. Playing behind a patchwork offensive line, DeVito has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks. Washington’s offense is a bright spot and the Commanders are closer than ever to being convinced QB Sam Howell is the franchise passer they’ve coveted for years.

Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-8): If an ideal time for 2021 first-round CB Jaycee Horn’s return from injury existed, this might be that spot. The Cowboys are the lone team in the NFL this season that has reached the 40-point level in three different games. “This past month, we’re hitting on all cylinders,” Dallas coach Mike McCarthy said. While Horn (hamstring) coming back from IR isn’t certain, the Panthers do expect pass rusher Brian Burns in the lineup on Sunday. But Dak Prescott could be hitting another level. He threw for 404 yards last weekend against the New York Giants, giving him three consecutive games above the 300-yard mark. WRs CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks both eclipsed the 150-yard receiving mark last week, and the Cowboys ran for 168 yards. Lamb is the first player in NFL history with three straight games of double-figure catches and 150-plus receiving yards. The Panthers called a reverse at play-caller this week. Head coach Frank Reich will return to calling plays after handing those duties to Thomas Brown last month.

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3): Jacksonville’s five-game winning streak come to a halt with a 34-3 dismantling by the San Francisco 49ers last week. Jacksonville surrendered three passing touchdowns to Brock Purdy, while Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence tossed a pair of interceptions and was sacked five times. While head coach Doug Pederson said he’s sure the team will “bounce back,” he also admitted Lawrence (knee) isn’t healthy. The loss to the 49ers marked the first multi-interception game of the season for Lawrence, who has been picked off six times while throwing nine touchdowns through nine games. He’s completed 67.3 percent of his passes this season 2,120 yards. The Titans lost back-to-back road games to the Steelers and Buccaneers, spinning their tires in the running game. Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears combined for just 42 rushing yards last week. Rookie Will Levis, in his third start, completed just 19 of 39 passes for 199 yards and an interception. The Titans seem to be getting a bit healthier ahead of their first meeting of the season with the Jaguars, who won the winner-take-all regular-season finale in 2022.

Arizona Cardinals (2-8) at Houston Texans (5-4): Above-.500 in November for the first time since 2019, there’s an unrecognizable element in the air in Houston: playoff talk. QB C.J. Stroud has the Texans squarely in the postseason conversation with eight games to play, but head coach DeMeco Ryans said the challenge is to focus on the game in front of them. Up next is a critical fight with the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) on Nov. 26 on the Texans’ home turf. Stroud leads the NFL with 291.8 passing yards per game and is sixth with a 101.0 rating. He is the linchpin of an offense scoring 24.1 points per game — 10th in the league — and averaging 372.5 yards per game, good enough for sixth. Arizona is better equipped to put up points in Kyler Murray’s second game back from his 2022 ACL injury. The Cardinals rank 31st in opponent quarterback rating (101.0) and 29th with an opponent completion percentage of 69.1. The statistics point to Stroud rolling again, especially if his offensive line continues to sweep a pristine pocket clear of obstacles. Houston allowed one sack over 41 dropbacks in a 30-27 road victory over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Of importance in that mission, left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) has been fighting to practice.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-3): A rematch of the 49ers’ 35-7 win in the same stadium last December pits a pair of teams that snapped losing streaks last week. The Bucs halted a four-game losing skid with a 20-6 triumph over the visiting Tennessee Titans last Sunday. The Buccaneers now find themselves a half-game behind the New Orleans Saints for first place in the mediocre-at-best NFC South. San Francisco, which also played last week’s game in the state of Florida, ended a three-game slide with a 34-3 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 49ers remain tied with the Seattle Seahawks atop the NFC West. The Buccaneers have a tall order ahead in San Francisco, which ranks tied for third in the NFL in points scored per game (28.0) and tied for second in points allowed (15.9). The trade deadline addition of DE Chase Young produced some scary flashes of dominance last week. Christian McCaffrey, who has made himself at home in the end zone of late, saw his streak of consecutive games with a touchdown come to an end at 17 games (including playoffs). But he scored three TDs in the win over Tampa Bay last season.

New York Jets (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-5): Too early to be dubbed an elimination game, but peering ahead at the remaining schedule for both teams might make one wonder. Status quo wasn’t working for the Bills, who fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey following a 24-22 loss at home to the Broncos that featured four turnovers and a pair of last-minute penalties that set up Denver’s game-winning field goal. The Bills can’t afford to stall out, already 1 1/2 games behind Miami in the division and currently behind the wild-card teams in the AFC. The next five weeks bring games at Philadelphia (8-1), the bye week, at Kansas City (7-2), versus Dallas (6-3) and at the Los Angeles Chargers (4-5). Curbing turnovers — Josh Allen has 15 this season — becomes the task of new coordinator Joe Brady. Jets head coach Robert Saleh’s defense has clamped down on Allen the way few teams have in recent years. It forced four turnovers in Week 1 (three interceptions, one fumble), but New York’s offense has gone 36 possessions without a TD.

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Los Angeles Rams (3-6): The Rams are coming off a bye and QB Matthew Stafford is expected to return to the starting lineup after missing one game with a sprained ligament in the thumb on his throwing hand. The Rams won the first meeting between NFC West rivals, outscoring Seattle 23-0 in the second half in Week 1 to win 30-13. The Seahawks are tied atop the division with the 49ers and hoping for more consistent play from QB Geno Smith. Smith was 9 of 11 on the final two drives against Washington last week but could be without WR Tyler Lockett (hamstring) this week. The Rams have lost three consecutive games. Stafford returns for the Rams after missing a 20-3 loss at Green Bay on Nov. 5, but rookie WR Puka Nacua (knee) might miss his chance for an encore against Seattle. Nacua had 10 catches for 119 yards in the September matchup.

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Denver Broncos (4-5): In the primetime spotlight for the second consecutive week, the Broncos might warrant a little attention thanks to a three-game winning streak including a win over the Chiefs and a pair of two-point wins (Bills, Packers). Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell might be thinking “hold my beer, Sean Payton” as he heads to the Rockies with a five-game winning streak while overcoming the loss of key players including quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson (hamstring). The Vikings beat the New Orleans Saints (27-19) last Sunday and could get a big boost with Jefferson back from injured reserve. QB Joshua Dobbs, acquired from the Cardinals to replace Cousins, won his first start with the Vikings last week after leading a late rally the week prior at Atlanta. The anticipated Sean Payton Effect might be showing through in Russell Wilson’s performance. His 104 passer rating is significantly higher than the 84.4 clip a season ago. Wilson has completed 67.9 percent of his passes for 1,806 yards, 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Broncos’ running game, another Payton staple, is picking up the pace in the second half of the season. Javonte Williams has led the way with 436 rushing yards to go along with 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2): Whether dubbed Super Bowl 57.5 or the Kelce Clan Reunion, there’s been nothing swift about the success of the teams that battled for the Lombardi Trophy in February. The Eagles have the NFL’s best record. The Chiefs lead the AFC and swept the last four meetings with the Eagles, including 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII on Feb. 12. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is the winningest head coach in the history of both franchises, logging 140 victories (including playoffs) for the Eagles from 1999-2012 and 136 since taking over the Chiefs in 2013. Nine months ago in Glendale, Ariz., it was all about QBs. Patrick Mahomes, playing on an injured ankle, threw two of his three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and set up the winning field goal with a gutsy 26-yard scramble. He won his second Super Bowl MVP award. Jalen Hurts was just as effective. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown and rushed 70 yards for three touchdowns. He used his legs to pick up the game-tying score — and the two-point conversion — with 5:15 remaining. Both are in the MVP conversation again in 2023. Hurts has completed a career-high 68.9 percent of his passes for 2,347 yards with 15 touchdowns but also eight interceptions. He has seven rushing TDs.

–Field Level Media

Sep 15, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25) runs the ball as Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James Jr. (3) attempts the tackle during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

NFL flexes Chiefs-Chargers to ‘SNF’ in Week 11

The NFL on Tuesday flexed in the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers contest for the Sunday night game in Week 11.

The Pittsburgh Steelers-Cincinnati Bengals game got flexed out of that spot, sliding to a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff slot on CBS.

NBC owns the “Sunday Night Football” package with a recurring kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET.

The Chiefs travel to Los Angeles for the second meeting of the season between the teams. The Chiefs defeated the Chargers in Week 2, 27-24.

Heading into Week 10, one game separates the Chiefs (6-2) and Chargers (5-3) in the AFC West.

Meanwhile, the Steelers come out of their bye last in the AFC North with a 2-6 record. The Bengals (5-4) are chasing the Baltimore Ravens (6-3) for the division lead.

–Field Level Media

Nov 7, 2021; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) attempts to catch a pass against Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward (21) in the first half at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 NFL TD prop picks

Last week wasn’t perfect, but we did identify the right games with the exception of the disaster of a performance from the Atlanta Falcons.

Four of the five players I highlighted had teammates at the same position score. To me, that’s validation of the data-driven approach.

There’s always a randomness at play when betting touchdown scorers, but if you stay true to targeting soft spots, there’s data to support these bets in the long-term.

I’ve gone a step further this week by also looking at the teams who pass and rush for the most touchdowns and finding overlaps where they play a team that allows the most touchdowns either through the air or on the ground.

For example, the Titans score 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game, the most in the NFL. They play the Texans this weekend who allow the second-most rushing touchdowns per game (1.7). That’s the type of overlap we’re looking for.

Couple that with red zone strengths and high-usage players, and I’m feeling good about the touchdown scorers this weekend.

–Five TD Scorer Props this Sunday

To reiterate, this piece can be used just as much as a resource as it can be a look into best bets. While last week showed that we had the right spots circled, there are a lot of players on the field, so consider their teammates as well.

We focus on plus-odds bets only to give us some leeway for profit. For example, against an extremely poor Lions run defense, Nick Chubb is a strong option to score. At -165 odds, it’s not great value.

If you like to place TD parlays then by all means, load up Chubb – I likely will myself.

Time to focus up, here are my five favorite touchdown scorers in Week 11. Odds are courtesy of DraftKings and FanDuel.

–James Robinson +130 on DraftKings

James Robinson is in a good spot in this game against the 49ers. For starters, Jacksonville scores a touchdown on 60% of their red zone trips, a top-15 mark.
San Francisco is a below-average red zone defense and allow the third-most rushing touchdowns per game at 1.3.

Robinson has his role locked up with Jacksonville, leading the team in red zone usage and carries. Robinson has found the end zone in five games this year and has had an efficient season out of the backfield.

–Cole Beasley +175 on DraftKings

Beasley left the Bills Week 10 game against the Jets early with an injury, but all reports indicate he’s good to go for this big game against the Indianapolis Colts.

This initially hit my radar as an example of a strong RZ offense against a poor RZ defense, but it was studying how the Colts let up touchdowns that makes this an official play.

Only one team allows more passing touchdowns per game than this Indy defense, and Beasley is second on the Bills in red zone targets.

Prior to leaving Week 10 early, Beasley saw 13 and 11 total targets in back-to-back weeks, a significant uptick in volume.

Beasley has just one touchdown this season, which only makes me think he’s due. At +175, this feels like a strong spot for Beasley to score.

–D’Onta Foreman +125 on FanDuel
We alluded to this above, but one of the clear spots to target this weekend is the Titans running game against this Texans defense.

The man that gets the nod in my book is Foreman, who slightly out-snapped Adrian Peterson last week, saw three red zone carries and just looked to be the most efficient with the ball in his hands.

Tennessee should find the end zone repeatedly against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. With their proclivity for scoring on the ground (the highest rushing TDs per game), their group of runners is the right place to look.

Adrian Peterson is a factor and +160 to score, he has five red zone carries the past two weeks.

–Tee Higgins +150 on FanDuel
Full transparency, I have been including Tee Higgins to score in my touchdown parlays for three straight weeks and you guessed it, he hasn’t scored yet.

Higgins is a key cog in this Cincinnati Bengals’ passing attack, playing over 75% of the snaps and seeing 8.1 targets per game.

Higgins leads this group of pass-catches in red zone targets but hasn’t scored since Week 2!

Las Vegas has the 31st-ranked red zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a 75% rate. They’re particularly vulnerable to passing touchdowns, seeing the fifth-most per game, while Joe Burrow and the Bengals toss the fifth-most passing scores per game.

This is a perfect union of value and my favorite touchdown play of the day.

–Michael Gallup +160 on FanDuel
The Dallas-Kansas City game is the highest projected total of the weekend (56.5 points) and well worth a touchdown bet.

This game screams shootouts with two strong offenses and two less-than-stellar defenses, so I’ll load up the Dallas receiver with the most value, Michael Gallup.

Gallup returned to the Cowboys lineup for the first time since Week 1, playing 53% of the snaps and seeing five targets.

As a piece of this offense in a high-scoring game, I love the odds here. The Chiefs allow the seventh-highest passing TDs per game while Dallas scores primarily through the air (2.4 per game, third in the NFL).

With Amari Cooper now on the COVID list, Gallup’s usage only figures to jump.

-Follow Griffin Carroll (@griffybets) and check out his work at bettingwithdata.com.

Nov 1, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) warms up before the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Colts-Packers Week 11 game flexed to late afternoon

The NFL used its flex-scheduling powers on Monday, announcing a time change for the Week 11 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts on Nov. 22.

The game, at Indianapolis, will move from 1 p.m. to 4:25 p.m. ET. FOX Sports will televise the game.

It will become the marquee game of the afternoon time slot, which previously featured the New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings.

The Packers (6-2) lead the NFC North at the halfway point of the season. The Colts (5-3) are in second place in the AFC South.

–Field Level Media

NFL-Week-11-Stat-Recap-Table-QB-RB-and-WR

NFL Week 11 Stat Recap Table: QB, RB and WR

Big Ben leads a comeback over the Jaguars. The Saints continue to roll. Monday night featured an action-packed offensive showing between the Rams and the Chiefs

  • Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff combine for 64 completions, 893 yards, and 10 touchdowns.
  • 4 quarterbacks threw 3 interceptions
  • Tyreek Hill made 10 receptions for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns
  • 6 Players with 100+ rushing yards
  • Saquon Barkley, Mark Ingram II, Adrian Peterson, and Phillip Lindsay all rush for 2 touchdowns

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