Tag: Week 12

Nov 18, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush (10) warms up before the game against the Houston Texans at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 12

Posted on | by Field Level Media

If watching the Cleveland Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football makes you think twice about betting on Sunday games — well, you don’t have to. If you don’t want to fall victim to the next upset, bet on one of the many NFL player props offered by online sportsbooks instead.

“Many” doesn’t really do the number of player props available for each game justice; there easily be a couple of hundred per game. But don’t worry about needing to review them all. All you need to do is take a look at our top 10 NFL player props for Week 12, listed in no particular order.

NFL Week 12: Player Props

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

Cooper Rush, O/U 201.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
O/U 33.5 pass attempts at -102/-128 (FanDuel)
O/U 18.5 completions at -130/+100 (DraftKings)

For most of the season, the Cowboys have insisted on trying to establish the run even though they must know it isn’t a strength. But they changed course in their Week 11 loss to the Houston Texans, and Cooper Rush threw 55 passes, of which 32 were caught for 354 yards.

It might seem hard to believe after the 13-for-23, 45-yard debacle in a 34-6 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Nov. 10, but Rush is not a bad quarterback. After all, he was 5-1 as a starter when called to fill in for Dak Prescott in the 2021 and ‘22 seasons.

Just as they did when they lost 34-10 to the Texans, the Cowboys will fall behind against the Commanders and will need to pass if they are going to try to catch up. So, the volume of attempts for Rush will be there again, as will the yardage against a lackluster Washington pass defense.

Don’t expect Rush to throw the ball 50-plus times again, but his attempts aren’t likely to fall in the mid-20s, either, as in the previous two starts. Opponents are averaging 27.1 attempts per game vs. Washington — but they are also running the ball 30.5 times per game.

Dallas will not run the ball 30 times; they average 21.5 carries per game this season. Take the OVER for Rush passing yards.

If you’re going to take the OVER on his passing yards and attempts, then it almost makes sense to take the OVER for his pass completions. Opponents are completing 65.8 percent of their passes vs. the Commanders. At that rate, to clear 19.5 completions, he’ll need to throw roughly 30 passes.

Yeah, take the OVER.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants

Mike Evans, O/U 50.5 receiving yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
O/U 3.5 receptions at -140/+105 (BetMGM)

Baker Mayfield fared well in the first couple of games with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but the dynamic duo suffered injuries in their Oct. 21 game against the Baltimore Ravens. Godwin is out for the season, but Evans is expected to return this week against the Giants.

If they are going to stay in the wild-card hunt, the Buccaneers will need to win this game after four consecutive losses. To that end, Mayfield probably will target his star wide receiver early and often. It would be surprising if he didn’t have four catches in the first half.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

Christian McCaffrey, O/U 17.5 rushing attempts at +100/-130 (BetMGM)
O/U 108.5 rushing and receiving yards at -113/-115 (FanDuel)

Jordan Love, O/U 0.5 interceptions at -125/-105 (DraftKings)

With Brock Purdy out, the 49ers probably will lean on the run game. When you have the most dangerous offensive player in the NFL in your backfield — Christian McCaffrey — you should. He had 19 carries last week vs. Seattle. He’ll probably get a similar number this week, if not higher.

Without Purdy on the field and backup Brandon Allen in his place, it’s hard to know whether McCaffrey will be more productive for the passing game or the running game or equally proficient. But you typically can count on him being productive. He’s gone for 106 and 107 combined rushing and receiving yards, respectively, in the two games he’s played since his return from an injury that had sidelined him to start the season.

It would not be a stretch for him to get a few more yards and exceed a total of 108.5 rushing/receiving yards. Take the OVER.

Jordan Love has thrown at least one interception in every game he has played this season. The 49ers defense has 11 picks on the year. They’ll make it 12 — if not 13 or 14 — in this game. Take the OVER.

Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

Tim Settle Jr. O/U .25 sacks at +105/-135 (DraftKings)
Joe Mixon, O/U 21.5 rushing attempts at -110/-120 (BetMGM)

The Houston defense is among the league leaders in sacks this season with 34. Tennessee’s quarterbacks are among the most sacked in the league. Danielle Hunter co-leads the team in sacks, making him a solid choice. However, the odds on his OVER are -176, while Tim Settle Jr. has plus money odds.

With the Titans having injury issues with the interior of the offensive line, a defensive tackle has a shot at breaking through and getting credit for at least half of a sack. Take the OVER.

The Texans have been at their best when Mixon is getting 20-plus carries; every time he has, he’s gone for 100-plus yards. It might be hard to gain 100 or more yards against the Titans’ defense, but Houston will make sure he gets his carries.

–Field Level Media

Nov 12, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) passes the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jessica Rapfogel-USA TODAY Sports

Week 12 NFL Capsules

Posted on | by Field Level Media

NFL Week 12 capsules

Falcons (4-6) vs. Saints (5-5): Desmond Ridder is back as QB1 for Atlanta, which is desperately trying to pull itself out of a three-game losing streak. Ridder will be up against a New Orleans defense without Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who was placed on injured reserve on Saturday due to an ankle injury. The NFC South has been the league’s weakest division, evident by the Saints’ status as the top team, but New Orleans could slip in the standings with a loss on Sunday.

Bengals (5-5) vs. Steelers (6-4): With star quarterback Joe Burrow set to undergo season-ending wrist surgery, Cincinnati is turning to Jake Browning under center. Browning has appeared in just two NFL games (zero starts), but the Bengals have faith in him, and he’ll be facing a Pittsburgh defense allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game in the NFL (239.9). Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) has already been ruled out for the game, too. The Steelers’ offense is also in flux, as offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired on Tuesday.

Texans (6-4) vs. Jaguars (7-3): Houston has already beaten Jacksonville once this season, and another win would give the Texans first place in the AFC South. C.J. Stroud has the Houston offense rolling and has emerged as the clear frontrunner to win Rookie of the Year. He has formed a strong connection with fellow rookie Tank Dell, who has 20 catches for 319 yards and four touchdowns over the last three weeks. Don’t sleep on the Jaguars, though, as they’ve won six of their past seven games since their loss to the Texans on Sept. 24.

Colts (5-5) vs. Buccaneers (4-6): Although it sits two games under .500, Tampa Bay still has a shot to make the playoffs, but its offense has been scuffling. The Buccaneers have scored just 34 points over their past two games and will be looking to break through against a stout defense that held the Panthers to 13 points on Nov. 5 before suffocating the Patriots in a 10-6 victory on Nov. 12. Indianapolis linebacker Zaire Franklin has been a monster, posting the third-most tackles (117) in the league.

Giants (3-8) vs. Patriots (2-8): The days of New York and New England meeting in the Super Bowl are long gone, to say the least. The only team averaging fewer points per game than the Patriots (14.1) happens to be the Giants (13.5). New England coach Bill Belichick hasn’t even named a starting quarterback yet, and he’s essentially picking between the lesser of two evils with Mac Jones (2,031 passing yards, 10 TDs, 10 interceptions) and Bailey Zappe (104 yards, 0 TDs, one interception). For the Giants, Daniel Jones’ torn ACL has opened the door for Tommy DeVito, who could have New York playing inspired football after throwing for three touchdowns in a 31-19 victory over the Commanders last week.

Titans (3-7) vs. Panthers (1-9): Could this be the week Tennessee running back Derrick Henry turns back the clock? Henry has carried the ball 21 times for just 62 yards in the past two weeks combined, but he might be able to find some relief against a Carolina defense surrendering 129.4 rushing yards per game. Carolina’s secondary is also in disarray, as cornerbacks Jaycee Horn (hamstring) and C.J. Henderson (concussion) are doubtful and safety Sam Franklin Jr. (quadriceps) is questionable.

Cardinals (2-9) vs. Rams (4-6): Los Angeles snapped a three-game skid on the heels of its defense last week, as the Rams held the Seahawks to just 87 yards in the second half. Now Los Angeles will try its best to contain Arizona, which has yet to get the desired results from Kyler Murray from his first two games. Murray has thrown for 463 yards, one touchdown and two picks, but he should have some space to operate against a Rams defense that has just five interceptions and 21 sacks this season.

Broncos (5-5) vs. Browns (7-3): Perhaps no team has battled adversity better than Cleveland. The Browns are without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson and star running back Nick Chubb for the season, but Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jerome Ford are doing just enough to back one of the best defenses in the league. However, Denver has rattled off four straight wins, and Russell Wilson has thrown seven TDs without an interception during that stretch.

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-6): Sunday begins a stretch of three straight home games for the Raiders, who carry a four-game winning streak at Allegiant Stadium since losing to Pittsburgh in their home opener in Week 3. “That Black Hole has to be real,” Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce said. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have won five of the six meetings between the division rivals since the Raiders relocated to Las Vegas. They’re vowing to stay positive after being held scoreless in the second half of its 21-17 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles in a Super Bowl LVII rematch.

Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1): A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts had an animated chat on the sidelines after a botched play led to a Chiefs interception in the second quarter last week. In spite of Brown’s one catch for 8 yards, the Eagles still won and stand a league-best 9-1. Like Brown, Stefon Diggs has been kept under wraps this month after topping 100 receiving yards in five of Buffalo’s first six games. The Bills didn’t need a big game from Diggs to smother the New York Jets last week and snap a two-game skid, but he could hold the key to torching an Eagles secondary that ranks 28th with 248.1 passing yards allowed per game.

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-6): Lamar Jackson is dealing with a left ankle injury sustained in the Ravens’ last game Nov. 16, but he wasn’t on the injury report this week and insists the ankle will be fine against the Chargers. Jackson won’t have top target Mark Andrews, as the tight end underwent ankle surgery this week. Still, the Ravens have won five of six as they run into a Chargers squad that keeps finding new ways to lose close games. Los Angeles has lost five games by three points or fewer this season, including last week’s 23-20 defeat at Green Bay.

Chicago Bears (3-8) at Minnesota Vikings (6-5): Minnesota’s five-game winning streak may have ended last week in a 21-20 loss at Denver, but the Vikings saved their season with that streak, which began with a 19-13 win at Chicago. The biggest question this week is whether folk-hero quarterback Joshua Dobbs will get to team up with star wideout Justin Jefferson for the first time. Jefferson (hamstring) is listed as questionable; he’s been out from Week 6 on, before Kirk Cousins was lost for the season and Dobbs was acquired. Meanwhile, Justin Fields said the Bears are “better than what we put on tape” in the first meeting with Minnesota, but Chicago must evaluate whether to stick with Fields long-term as the team is about to earn two high draft picks this spring.

–Field Level Media

Oct 29, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 12 betting preview: Ridder back and better for Falcons?

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Our “Love-in” paid off — Jordan Love and the Packers at plus money parlayed with the over vs. the Chargers — as did our secondary bet, Vikings +7.5 and under 45.5 in Denver.

Our player prop? Josh Dobbs went over his rushing attempts (5.5), carrying eight times for 21 yards.

Let’s keep it rolling.

With the Taylor Heinecke experiment all but done, the Atlanta Falcons move back to Desmond Ridder as they host the New Orleans Saints.

Can Ridder become more useful with a break/benching in his rearview mirror?

See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

Saints at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Falcons -1.5, total 42.5 (FanDuel)

Ridder likely has found some potential answers to the specifics that have tortured him — and Falcons fans — most of this season.

The question is whether he can apply those lessons and execute the plan successfully. In this scenario, he’ll have help from a New Orleans defense that is showing wear and tear.

The Falcons’ defense is seventh in yards allowed per game (308.8) but only 18th in points allowed (21.7). That’s in large part due to Ridder’s early-season mistakes that allowed opponents a short field.

Ridder was 4-4 as the starter before being evaluated for a concussion in Week 8 against Tennessee. Taylor Heinicke replaced him to start the second half and started the next two games, both Atlanta losses.

In Atlanta’s most recent game, Ridder came in for an injured Heinecke and completed 4 of 6 passes for 39 yards against Arizona.

“We have a lot of confidence in Des,” Atlanta coach Arthur Smith said. “Over the last couple weeks, he has handled it really well. I think the time (as a backup) was very beneficial for him.

“Des did a lot of good things (during his time as a reserve). In Arizona, you could see how prepared he was. We had confidence in Des then and we have confidence in him moving forward.”

Smith said he plans to keep Ridder as the starter for the rest of the season.

The Saints are similarly confusing, having seen improvement from the offense but attrition from the defensive numbers.

Saints QB Derek Carr, who was in concussion protocol but officially cleared it Thursday, is a solid if not stellar veteran. Coach Dennis Allen said he’d “like to see more consistency in the passing game.”

This is a battle for first place in the NFC South, so the stakes are still pretty high.

The Falcons continue to be among the unluckiest teams via the Action Network’s luck rankings, and we’ll give into the temptation to believe — a little bit — in Ridder this week.

The play: Same-game parlay teasing Falcons +3.5, with the over teased to 36.5 (at +100 odds, per FanDuel).

THEY SAID IT

“You get a different perspective of not only yourself but the offense as a whole. There are a lot of things where I’d like to have gone back and done better. I could’ve protected the ball better, but there are a lot of (instances) where I could’ve done things to not be in those situations, whether it’s footwork or your reads or your progressions.”

–Falcons QB Desmond Ridder said of his time on the sideline.

BONUS COMBO

The Buffalo Bills were done, right? Dead and buried and likely to struggle against the Jets.

Didn’t happen. Is Buffalo back?

Bills at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. ET

The line: Eagles -3, total 48.5 (FanDuel).

This is not an indictment of former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey — rather, a vote for the new-look Bills offense.

No longer so reliant on Stefon Diggs, Buffalo QB Josh Allen is set to continue spreading the wealth.

The Eagles’ low-scoring victory in Kansas City was more a product of a struggling Chiefs passing game — and the bad weather.

We like the Bills to exploit a sagging Eagles secondary and keep this within a field goal — if not an outright win for a desperate team.

The play: Two-leg same-game parlay teasing Bills +7.5, with over teased to 41.5 (+105, per BetMGM).

PROP CORNER

Let’s stay with the Bills’ offense for this one.

Conventional wisdom could point to Diggs’ reduction in usage as something that’s here to stay. We aren’t conventional.

The Allen-Diggs combination should be able to hit a few chunk plays on Sunday, resulting in a nice receiving number for Diggs (and his backers).

Prop play: Bills WR Stefon Diggs 80 or more receiving yards (+110 at DraftKings).

–Field Level Media

What to Look For - Week 13 Quarterbacks

Seven From Sunday – Week 12

Posted on | by National Football Post

PRESS RELEASE

SEVEN FROM SUNDAY – WEEK 12​ 

A look at seven statistical highlights from games played at 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 25, the 12th week of the 2018 season. 

  • New England quarterback TOM BRADY completed 20 of 31 passes (64.5 percent) for 283 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 115.4 passer rating in the Patriots’ 27-13 victory at the New York Jets. 

    Brady has 79,416 career passing yards (including the postseason) and surpassed PEYTON MANNING (79,279) for the most passing yards in NFL history, including the playoffs.  

    Patriots tight end ROB GRONKOWSKI had 56 receiving yards and a touchdown catch in the team’s Week 12 win. Gronkowski, who is 29 years old, has 78 career touchdown receptions, tying Pro Football Hall of Famer TERRELL OWENS (78) for the third-most touchdown catches by a player prior to turning 30 years old in league annals. Only Pro Football Hall of Famers RANDY MOSS (101) and JERRY RICE (95) had more career touchdowns prior to the age of 30.
     

  • Los Angeles Chargers quarterback PHILIP RIVERS completed 28 of 29 passes (96.6 percent), including his first 25 pass attempts, for 259 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 138.4 passer rating in the Chargers’ 45-10 victory over Arizona. 

    Rivers’ 25 consecutive completions are the most by a quarterback in a single game in NFL history and are tied with RYAN TANNEHILL (25 consecutive completions from Weeks 6-7 in 2015) for the most consecutive passes completed at any point in league history. Washington’s MARK BRUNELL previously held the record for the most consecutive completions to begin a game, completing his first 22 passes against Houston on September 24, 2006. 

    Rivers’ 96.6 completion percentage is the highest by a quarterback in a single game in league annals (minimum 20 attempts), surpassing the previous high of 92.3 percent (24 of 26 passing) set by Pro Football Hall of Famer KURT WARNER against Jacksonville on September 20, 2009.
     

  • Cleveland rookie quarterback BAKER MAYFIELD completed 19 of 26 passes (73.1 percent) for 258 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 143.9 passer rating in the Browns’ 35-20 victory at Cincinnati. 

    Mayfield, who recorded a 151.2 passer rating in Week 10 and had a bye in Week 11, is the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to record a 140+ passer rating in consecutive games (minimum 20 attempts).  

    Browns rookie running back NICK CHUBB rushed for 84 yards with a touchdown and had three catches for 44 yards and a score in the victory. 

    Chubb, who rushed for 176 yards with a touchdown and had a touchdown catch in Week 10, is one of four rookies in NFL history with both a rushing and receiving touchdown in consecutive games, joining KINK RICHARDS of the 1933 New York Giants, RODNEY CULVER of the 1992 Indianapolis Colts and SAQUON BARKLEY of the 2018 New York Giants.  

    Barkley, who scored both a rushing touchdown and receiving touchdown in Week 11, rushed for 101 yards with a score and had a touchdown catch in the Giants’ loss at Philadelphia in Week 12.
     

  • Baltimore rookie running back GUS EDWARDS rushed for 118 yards, rookie quarterback LAMAR JACKSON had 178 passing yards and 71 rushing yards and linebacker TERRELL SUGGS scored on a 43-yard fumble-return touchdown in the Ravens’ 34-17 victory over Oakland. 

    Edwards, who rushed for 115 yards last week, is the sixth undrafted rookie in the common draft era to record at least 100 rushing yards in consecutive games, joining BRANDEN OLIVER (2014), LE GARRETTE BLOUNT (2010), DOMINIC RHODES (2001), FRED LANE (1997) and CLARK GAINES (1976). 

    Jackson, who rushed for 119 yards in his first-career start in Week 11, has 190 rushing yards in his first two NFL starts, the most by a quarterback in his first two career starts in the Super Bowl era. 

    At 36 years, 45 days old, Suggs is the second-oldest player in league history with a fumble-return touchdown of at least 40 yards, trailing only Carolina’s SAM MILLS who returned a fumble 41 yards for a touchdown against the Houston Oilers on November 24,1996 at 37 years, 174 days old.
     

  • Tampa Bay wide receiver MIKE EVANS had six catches for 116 yards in the Buccaneers’ 27-9 victory over San Francisco. 

    Evans has 1,073 receiving yards this season and joined Pro Football Hall of Famer RANDY MOSS (six consecutive seasons from 1998-2003) and A.J. GREEN (five consecutive seasons from 2011-15) as the only players in NFL history with at least 1,000 receiving yards in each of their first five seasons.
     

  • Philadelphia tight end ZACH ERTZ had seven catches for 91 yards and a touchdown in the Eagles’ 25-22 victory over the New York Giants.  

    Ertz has 84 catches this season, the most by a tight end in franchise history, surpassing the previous record of 81 set by KEITH JACKSON in 1988.  

    Ertz has 405 career catches since entering the league in 2013 and joined JIMMY GRAHAM (434 catches), JASON WITTEN (429) and ANTONIO GATES (400) as the only tight ends in NFL history with at least 400 catches in their first six career seasons.
     

  • Other notable performances from Sunday include:
     

    • Indianapolis quarterback ANDREW LUCK completed 30 of 37 passes (81.1 percent) for 343 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for a 109.8 passer rating in the Colts’ 27-24 win over Miami. 

      Luck has thrown at least three touchdown passes in eight consecutive games, tying PEYTON MANNING (eight consecutive games in 2004) for the second-longest streak of consecutive games with at least three touchdown passes in a single season in NFL history. Only TOM BRADY (10 consecutive games in 2011) had a longer such streak in a single season.
       

    • Seattle quarterback RUSSELL WILSON completed 22 of 31 passes (71 percent) for 339 yards with two touchdowns, including a game-tying 35-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver DAVID MOORE with 3:26 remaining in the fourth quarter in the Seahawks’ 30-27 victory at Carolina.

      Wilson, who completed a 43-yard pass to wide receiver TYLER LOCKETT to set up the game-winning 31-yard field goal by SEBASTIAN JANIKOWSKI as time expired in the fourth quarter, has led 22 game-winning drives in the fo​urth quarter or overtime in his career, the most in franchise history. 

    • Panthers running back CHRISTIAN MC CAFFREY rushed for 125 yards with a touchdown and had 11 catches for 112 yards with a score in the Panthers’ loss to Seattle. 

​McCaffrey is the fifth different player since 2000 to have both 100 rushing and receiving yards and score both a rushing and receiving touchdown, joining ARIAN FOSTER (October 23, 2011), BRIAN WESTBROOK (September 23, 2007), STEVEN JACKSON (December 24, 2006) and PRIEST HOLMES (December 9, 2001 and November 24, 2002). He is the first player in franchise history to accomplish the feat. 

Courtesy of NFL Communications