Tag: Week 13

Dec 1, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) passes the ball against the Washington Commanders during the fourth quarter at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 14

Posted on | by Field Level Media

With six NFL teams on a bye and a shortage of competitive matchups this week, the risk may not be worth the reward betting on the traditional moneyline. However, with hundreds of NFL player props to choose from, bettors have options other than the spread, moneyline and total.

There is nothing wrong with putting money down on the traditional betting line for a game this week. But if these questionable matchups make you nervous, check out our list of the top 10 player props for the Sunday NFL slate.

Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise stated.

Jaguars vs. Titans

Will Levis, O/U 211.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113

O/U 0.5 Interceptions at -130/+100 (odds via DraftKings)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, O/U 36.5 Receiving Yards at -110/-120 (odds via BetMGM)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer at +230

Since getting back into the lineup for the Titans, Will Levis has been … not bad. His first game back (vs. the Chargers) was not spectacular: He was 18 of 23 for 175 yards and two touchdowns. But his past three passing-yardage totals have been 295, 278 and 212.

Against the league’s worst pass defense (talking about you, Jags), it would be surprising if he did not clear 211.5 yards this week. Take the OVER.

As for his interception total, yes, he has nine this season in nine games. He has been picked off twice in the four games since his return. But the Jaguars are one of the worst teams when it comes to forcing turnovers (eight, next to last in the league, three of them courtesy of Sam Darnold in one game).

Since the UNDER has even-money odds, take the UNDER.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has not had a great season, but he has become one of Levis’ favorite targets of late. In the four games with Levis under center again, Westbrook-Ikhine has been targeted 22 times (over half of his season total).

He has only caught two or three in each game, but in the past three, he went over 36.5 yards (117, 48, 61). As for scoring, he has recorded four touchdowns in his past three games.

Take the OVER on his yardage total and YES on Anytime Touchdown Scorer.

Falcons vs. Vikings

Sam Darnold, O/U 249.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113

Atlanta’s defense held opponents to 231.7 passing yards per game over the past three games. However, that number benefited quite a bit from last week’s game vs. the Chargers. Los Angeles had only 131 passing yards, but that number is definitely the exception and not the rule for the Falcons’ defense.

Darnold has gone over 249.5 yards just twice in his past five games. However, we like his chances of having a solid day in the passing game against a questionable Atlanta defense.

Take the OVER.

Panthers vs. Eagles

Jalen Hurts, O/U 25.5 Pass Attempts at -108/-120

The Eagles’ offense has been all about Saquon Barkley running the ball with the occasional run by Hurts and enough passing to force defenses to respect the threat the passing game could have. Consequently, Hurts has attempted more than 25.5 passes in a game once in his past eight contests.

Take the UNDER.

Jets vs. Dolphins

De’Von Achane, O/U 89.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards at -113/-115

Achane is one of the more explosive backs in the NFL, but without Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, he struggled. Tagovailoa has been back for a few weeks, and Achane’s production has improved, but the running back has gone over 93.5 total yards only once in his past three games and three times in six games since Tagovailoa’s return on Oct. 27.

The Jets are having all kinds of issues this season, but their defense has kept games from getting ugly. However, a running back has cleared 89.5 total yards against the Jets’ defense in two of the past four games.

Take the OVER.

Jonnu Smith, O/U 49.5 Receiving Yards at -113/-113

O/U 4.5 Receptions at +100/-135 (odds via BetMGM)

The Jets’ defense has been stingy, with tight ends averaging 4.5 receptions and 42.7 receiving yards, but Smith has been on fire the past three weeks. Tagovailoa targeted him 30 times across all three and he caught 25 (with a low of six while averaging a hair over 100 yards.

Take the OVER for both.

Browns vs. Steelers

Jameis Winston, O/U 8.5 Rushing Yards at -120/-110 (odds via BetMGM)

Winston does not take off running often, nor does he go far. He has had 19 rushes this season for 57 yards. However, he did have one game where he carried the ball five times for 27 yards (vs. the Chargers), and last week, vs. the Broncos, he had three carries for 11 yards.

However, the Steelers’ defense has been stingy against mobile quarterbacks, giving up 123 yards on 27 attempts. If Winston does run, he will not get far.

Take the UNDER.

–Field Level Media

Nov 24, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) drops back to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the second half at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 13

Posted on | by Field Level Media

This time of year can be difficult for bettors. It is not unusual for a struggling NFL team to play well for a day and keep it close against a better team. But if taking such a bet does not sound like a good idea, give one (or more) of the hundreds of player props a try.

With three games on Thanksgiving and another on Black Friday, there are fewer games than usual. However, there are still hundreds of NFL player props available. To help you decide which to bet on, here is our top 10 list of player props for Sunday’s Week 13 slate.

NFL Week 13: Player Props

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Pat Freiermuth, four-plus receptions at +194 (FanDuel)

Freiermuth had four last week in the loss to the Browns and at least that many in each of the first four games of the season. But against a passing team like the Bengals, the Steelers will likely need every weapon in their arsenal to keep up with the Cincinnati passing game. The Bengals’ defense has taken it relatively easy on tight ends this year. So, whether the Steelers are trying to catch up or control the ball, there is a good chance Freiermuth plays a bigger part than usual and makes four-plus receptions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young, O/U 195.5 at -114/-114 (FanDuel)

Those of us who have not paid much attention to the Carolina Panthers this season might be surprised to hear that Bryce Young has been playing pretty well since returning to the starting lineup. He’s thrown for 200-plus yards in two of his past four games and is completing 60-plus percent of his passes. Tampa Bay has a solid run defense. Since the Bucs will probably throw early and often, the Panthers will need Young to throw the ball to catch up and/or be competitive. With how well Young is playing right now, we’ll take the OVER.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, O/U 220.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (DraftKings)

Maye threw for more than 220 passing yards against the Rams and Dolphins, two solid defenses, in his past two games. The Colts’ defense ranks No. 27 in pass defense and has seen opponents average 34 pass attempts and 231.7 yards per game over the past three. Maye has averaged right around 34 attempts and 230 yards over his past three. Take the OVER.

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints

Kyren Williams, O/U 19.5 rushing attempts at -102/-128 (FanDuel)
O/U 82.5 rushing yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
O/U 11.5 receiving yards (DraftKings)

Williams had 16, 15, and 15 carries the past three weeks but had 20-plus in the previous four and has averaged 18.8 per game this season. But he’ll be facing a New Orleans Saints team that has seen opponents run the ball 26.7 times per game and 27.8 at home. The Rams tend to run a little less on the road, but they are fighting to remain in the playoff conversation (just like the Saints). To that end, they’ll put the ball in the hands of their playmaker rather than spread the touches among multiple backs.

New Orleans has been giving up 134.2 yards per game on the ground but has been especially weak against the run at home (163.2 yards per game). Wiliams has gone for over 82.5 yards in three of the five games in which he had 20-plus carries.
But against a Saints team giving up 160-plus at home, take the OVER.

Williams has not been targeted in the passing game the past two weeks (three total). In the eight games where he had at least one catch, he finished with under 11.5 yards in three. He is not a priority in the passing game. Take the UNDER.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

C.J. Stroud, O/U 259.5 passing yards at -115/-115 (BetMGM)
Tank Dell, O/U 51.5 receiving yards at -113/-113 (FanDuel)
O/U 4.5 receptions at +130/-170 (FanDuel)
Nico Collins, O/U longest reception 26.5 yards at -130/+100 (BetMGM)

This should be the ‘get-right’ game C.J. Stroud and the Texans have needed for weeks. Jacksonville has overtaken the Ravens as the worst pass defense in the NFL. Stroud has gone over 259.5 passing yards just once in Houston’s past seven games.

But opponents are averaging 278.3 yards per game this season and close to 300 over the past three games. If Stroud can’t go off against this team with the talent at his disposal …

Tank Dell has gone over 51.5 yards in both games with Nico Collins back in the lineup. But against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed an average of 13.5 receptions for 183.5 yards, Dell should see a few more targets.

Collins will be the primary receiver, of course, but Dell could still see balls thrown his way and that should be enough for him to go OVER both marks. As for Collins, he has had a reception of 28-plus yards in every game but one. Jacksonville has given up 52 pass plays of 20-plus yards and nine of 40-plus.

Take the OVER.

–Field Level Media

Nov 3, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts to Saquon Barkley (not pictured) touchdown run against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Week 13 NFL Capsules

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Atlanta holds a one-game lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South but lost the last two games. The Falcons are seeking their first winning season and playoff appearance since 2017. Prior to the bye last week, Atlanta lost 38-6 on the road to the Denver Broncos. The offense managed just 226 total yards, while producing its lowest point total of the season. The Falcons’ defense didn’t fare much better, as the unit was gashed by rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who threw four touchdowns. QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2,807 yards — good for fifth in the NFL — and would become the first Falcons quarterback since Matt Ryan in 2008 to lead the team to the playoffs in his first year. Chargers first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh has his team in the second AFC wild-card spot, sandwiched between the 8-4 Baltimore Ravens and 7-5 Broncos and gained more breathing room with Miami’s loss at Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. After starting the year 3-3, the Chargers won four games in a row before dropping their home game Monday to the Ravens, 30-23. In a battle between Jim and his brother John, Los Angeles squandered a 10-0, second-quarter lead. Making matters worse, starting running back J.K. Dobbins suffered an MCL sprain in his left knee in the loss, and is expected to be out this week. He is considered week-to-week beyond that. Chargers backup running backs Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins will try to account for the absence of Dobbins, who’s rushed for 766 yards and eight touchdowns this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), 1 p.m., CBS
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin heaped praise upon Bengals QB Joe Burrow for his MVP-level play in 2024 and warned his troops this road trip isn’t one to take lightly. Pittsburgh isn’t panicked after a surprising Thursday night loss at Cleveland last week and with 10 days between games, Tomlin expects an effort representative of a division leader on Sunday. All three of the Steelers’ losses this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record. Pittsburgh also fell to the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts. The Bengals have been in a rut — with three losses in their past four games — and were on the wrong end of a 34-27 decision against the Chargers on Nov. 17. Like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati came back from a sizable deficit only to lose the last time out. Joe Burrow threw three second-half touchdown passes against Los Angeles as the Bengals climbed out of a 27-6 hole, but Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins found the end zone from 29 yards out with 18 seconds left in regulation to break a 27-27 tie. Burrow went 28-for-50 passing for 356 yards and the three TDs. Making things harder for the Steelers could be the absence of linebacker Alex Highsmith, who did not practice on Wednesday because of an ankle injury that has forced him to miss two games.

Houston Texans (7-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9), 1 p.m., FOX
A week after a demoralizing loss to the Tennessee Titans, the AFC South-leading Texans visit Jacksonville with the Jaguars rested following a bye week. The week prior, Jacksonville was overwhelmed in a humiliating 52-6 loss to the Detroit Lions. It marked the fourth straight setback for the Jaguars, who had dropped their previous three games by a combined 13 points. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson noted that changes are coming, although he opted not to show his cards. QB Trevor Lawrence, who has not played since Nov. 3 due to a left shoulder injury, is eager to play and compete against Texans QB C.J. Stroud, who has run into some struggles during his sophomore season. Stroud has thrown nine interceptions in 12 games (all starts) after throwing only five as a rookie. He was picked off twice in the 32-27 setback against Tennessee, also throwing for 247 yards and two touchdowns on 20-for-33 passing. The Texans have lost three of their past four games and four of their past six as defenses continue to solve Stroud. The Texans topped Jacksonville 24-20 back on Sept. 29.

Arizona Cardinals (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2), 1 p.m., FOX
Add the Minnesota Vikings to the observers who were urging the Bears to use a time out in the final 25 seconds of their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Lions, who maintained a one-game lead in the NFC North by hanging on for a 23-20 win. With their focus back on the field, the Vikings are targeting a second five-game winning streak this season when the Cardinals come to town. Minnesota claimed a 30-27 overtime win on the road against the Bears last Sunday. The Vikings have won each of their past three games on the road, and they return home for the first time since beating the Indianapolis Colts 21-13 four weeks ago. Arizona is trying to return to winning after a 16-6 defeat on the road against the Seattle Seahawks last week. The defeat snapped a four-game winning streak for the Cardinals, who started the season 2-4 but have gone 4-1 since then. But Sunday’s game and a rematch against Seattle could prove pivotal for his team’s postseason hopes. Two wins would put Arizona at 8-5; two losses put the team below .500. Kyler Murray owns a 98.0 passer rating, throwing for 2,343 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. He also has 380 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. James Conner is Arizona’s top backfield threat with 705 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Tight end Trey McBride has a team-high 61 catches for 685 yards.

Indianapolis Colts (5-7) at New England Patriots (3-9), 1 p.m., CBS
Penalties crippled the Colts’ offense and erased multiple big plays by QB Anthony Richardson in Week 12, a loss to the Lions that left the locker room frustrated. But all is not lost for the Colts as they hit the road for another AFC East opponent. Richardson and Co. collected only 11 first downs in a 24-6 loss to the Detroit Lions. Richardson completed 11 of 28 passes for 172 yards. He was also the Colts’ leading rusher (10 carries, 61 yards). Star running back Jonathan Taylor was held to 35 yards on 11 carries against Detroit, but Indianapolis coach Shane Steichen is hopeful that he will do more damage against the Patriots. Getting the run going could become even more important if wide receivers Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin aren’t able to take the field. All three wouldn’t have practiced on Wednesday had the Colts not opted to simply do a walkthrough. Downs’ absence could end up hurting Indianapolis the most. The second-year man has a team-leading 53 catches for 594 yards and four TDs. Patriots rookie QB Drake Maye said he’s not worried about the so-called wall first-year players often encounter with the longer NFL season. Maye makes his ninth appearance (eighth start) of the campaign. He didn’t excel in the Patriots’ 34-15 loss to the Miami Dolphins last Sunday. He finished with 222 yards, one touchdown and one interception on 22-of-37 passing.

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at New York Jets (3-8), 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Most of the focus for the Jets, who have lost six of their past seven games, already points to next season. That’s part of the reason they might not risk a hobbled Breece Hall, who has 632 yards rushing along with 46 catches for 401 yards and six total touchdowns this season but began the week with a knee injury coming out of the bye week. QB Aaron Rodgers, who turns 41 Monday, wasn’t among those listed on the injury report for the first time since September. The streaky Seahawks are back to their winning ways and are tied with the Cardinals atop the NFC West. After opening the season by going 3-0, Seattle lost five of its next six games before winning its past two against division rivals. Coach Mike Macdonald’s defense has been much improved since a bye in Week 10, as the Seahawks defeated the host San Francisco 49ers 20-17 and visiting Arizona 16-6 over the past two weeks. Coby Bryant returned an interception 69 yards for a touchdown and Leonard Williams had 2.5 sacks against the Cardinals.

Tennessee Titans (3-8) at Washington Commanders (7-5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Trade deadline acquisition Marshon Lattimore, a physical cornerback picked up from the Saints, could debut for the Commanders. They could use a jolt. Having lost three straight after a 7-2 start, the Commanders last won Nov. 3 on Hail Mary touchdown from rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Tennessee is coming off a 33-27 upset of the Houston Texans that featured one of Will Levis’ best starts of the season. Washington has lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys the past three weeks and enters Week 13 two games behind the NFC East-leading Eagles. After sputtering for three quarters against Dallas, Washington scored 17 fourth-quarter points in a wild 34-26 loss last week. Daniels completed 25 of 38 passes for 274 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, but 86 of those yards came on a late catch-and-run score by Terry McLaurin. In the three recent losses, Daniels has a 61.5 completion percentage, three touchdowns, three interceptions and a 77.7 passer rating while being sacked 10 times. Daniels did have his best rushing day since Week 1 when he gained 74 yards against Dallas. Improvement might not come easy. The Titans’ defense that ranks second in the NFL behind the Eagles, giving up just 276.4 yards per game. Levis returned from his right shoulder injury and the Titans have averaged 224.3 passing yards per game, with nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in the past six outings. RB Tony Pollard had his best game of the season against Houston, rushing 24 times for 119 yards and a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) at Carolina Panthers (3-8), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
Few introductions are needed on Sunday, as first-year Panthers coach Dave Canales came to Carolina after serving as Buccaneers offensive coordinator a season ago. Canales’ prized pupil last season, Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield was with the Panthers for part of the 2022 campaign. The Buccaneers (5-6) playing a division opponent for the first time since an Oct. 27 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The goal will be notching back-to-back wins for the first time since the first two weeks of the season. Four different ball-carriers, including Mayfield, found the end zone on the ground during a 30-7 drubbing of the New York Giants last Sunday. Mayfield also completed 24 of 30 passes for 294 yards. Star wideout Mike Evans was back in action for Tampa Bay following a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury. He finished with five receptions for 68 yards against the Giants and now gets a crack at a Carolina team allowing a league-high 30.9 points per game this season. However, the Panthers have tightened up their play as of late, winning two games in a row before hanging with the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in a 30-27 setback last Sunday. The outing against Kansas City may have been the most efficient performance of Panthers quarterback Bryce Young’s two-year career. Young completed 21 of 35 passes for 263 yards and one score without throwing a pick. Carolina and Tampa Bay might as well get used to each other, as the two teams will collide again in four weeks.

Los Angeles Rams (5-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-7), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
The Saints won both games they have played since interim head coach Darren Rizzi was promoted from special teams coordinator to replace Dennis Allen, who was fired Nov. 4 after a seven-game losing streak. New Orleans comes out of its bye sitting in third place in the NFC South, two games behind the Falcons and one game behind the Buccaneers. The Rams’ visit will be the third straight home game for Rizzi as interim head coach. The Saints beat the Falcons 20-17 in his debut and followed that with a 35-14 victory over Cleveland in which they outscored the Browns 21-0 in the fourth quarter. A series of significant injuries contributed to the losing streak, but New Orleans has gotten progressively healthier in recent weeks. Quarterback Derek Carr improved in each of the last three contests after returning from a three-game absence caused by an oblique strain. The return of center Erik McCoy from groin surgery after a seven-game absence was a boost against the Browns. The Saints’ signing of veteran receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling on Oct. 22 with top receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed injured has given Carr a much-needed big-play threat. In the past two games, Valdes-Scantling has three touchdown receptions and has averaged 39.2 yards on five catches. The Rams are coming off a 37-20 home loss against the Eagles on Sunday night, their second defeat in three games after a three-game winning streak. They are tied with the San Francisco 49ers for last place in the NFC West, but they’re just one game behind the first-place Seahawks and Cardinals and have one game remaining against each of the three rivals. Coach Sean McVay called the loss to the Eagles “a humbling night” after his team struggled on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed Saquon Barkley to rush for a career-high and franchise-record 255 yards as well as two touchdowns, and Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford was sacked five times.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) at Baltimore Ravens (8-4), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Eagles have won seven in a row and play four of their final six games in Philadelphia, traveling only about 125 miles to visit the Ravens this weekend and the Commanders in Week 16. Sunday’s game features the NFL’s two leading rushers. Saquon Barkley (1,392 yards) and Derrick Henry (1,325) are far ahead of Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs (944) in third place. Henry leads the league with 13 rushing touchdowns. Barkley (10) is tied for fourth and Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts (11) tied for second. The matchup also features two of the top candidates for Most Valuable Player honors entering Week 13 in Barkley and Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who won his second MVP award last season. Their competition includes quarterbacks Josh Allen of Buffalo and Jared Goff of Detroit, with Allen widely considered the favorite. The showdown at M&T Bank Stadium also pits Baltimore’s No. 1 offense (426.7 yards per game) and No. 2 scoring offense (30.3 points per game) against Philadelphia’s No. 1 defense (274.6) and No. 6 scoring defense (18.1). The Eagles have held seven consecutive opponents to under 300 total yards, while the Ravens have gained at least 329 yards of offense in all 11 games. Philadelphia is coming off a 37-20 road win over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night in which Barkley smashed the franchise record with 255 rushing yards. Baltimore also earned a prime-time win in Los Angeles last week, defeating the Chargers 30-23 in the “Harbaugh Bowl” on Monday night behind Jackson’s three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing). Philadelphia is 5-1 away from home this season — 6-1 if you count their season-opening “home” victory against the Packers in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Baltimore is 4-1 at home.

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) at Buffalo Bills (9-2), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Buffalo can clinch the AFC East before the calendar flips to December while the 49ers are staggered and stumble into New York bracing for snow with a good chance of backups in the forecast. QB Brock Purdy (shoulder) missed the Week 12 loss at Green Bay and San Francisco was also without All-Pro DE Nick Bosa (oblique, hip), with LT Trent Williams (ankle) motoring through the locker room this week on a knee scooter. Buffalo is not the ideal place to try to get healthy. The Bills dealt the Chiefs their only loss this season and Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in five consecutive games. QB Josh Allen has passed for 18 touchdowns against five interceptions this season after throwing a career-worst 18 picks last season. San Francisco got walloped last week without Purdy, falling 38-10 to the host Packers. Brandon Allen started at quarterback and completed 17 of 29 passes for 199 yards with one touchdown pass, one interception and one lost fumble. Allen is 2-8 as an NFL starter. He is again getting heavy work in practice in case Purdy’s shoulder doesn’t significantly improve. The 49ers could use a big performance from running back Christian McCaffrey, who had just 31 yards on 11 carries and caught three passes for 37 yards against Green Bay.

–Field Level Media

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) is sacked by Chicago Bears defensive end Montez Sweat (98) in the fourth quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

NFL Thanksgiving, Black Friday Capsules

Posted on | by Field Level Media

NFL Thanksgiving, Black Friday capsules

–Thursday
Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (10-1), 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS
With a nine-game winning streak and 2-0 record in the division, the Lions are no easy prey for the Bears in the first game of the holiday tripleheader on Thursday. Chicago lost another game in walkoff fashion, 30-27 to the Vikings in overtime, their third such defeat in a five-game losing streak to deflate a feel-good 4-2 start. Signs of growth are evident for Bears rookie No. 1 pick Caleb Williams. Facing Minnesota’s notably blitz-happy defense, Williams guided the Bears to 17 points in the fourth quarter to force OT. He had his third 300-yard game of the season and hasn’t thrown an interception during the ongoing five-game skid. A lasting pain point since the Bears tasted victory at London in Week 6 is execution on third downs converting 21 of 73 since the bye week. With the short and fruitless drives becoming habitual, Chicago has seen improvement with Thomas Brown calling plays the past two games, although there are signs of a weary defense late in games. No time for a breather at Ford Field. The Lions are all-gas, no-brakes with 10 total touchdowns the past eight quarters. The Bears have 12 touchdowns in their past six games. Old friend David Montgomery faces his former Bears’ teammates and is doing his part to put points up for the Lions with 11 rushing TDs in 11 games. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown has more touchdowns (nine) than all Bears wide receivers combined (eight). Chicago’s defense picked off Jared Goff five times in two games last season. He has 20 touchdown passes — one TD catch — and seven games with multiple TD passes in 2024. In recent games, the Bears’ defense is getting scorched. Chicago has surrendered a league-worst 1,977 total yards since Week 8.

New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas Cowboys (4-7), 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Backup Tommy DeVito didn’t enjoy much of his first start this season for the Giants behind an offensive line breached by the Buccaneers repeatedly. DeVito, elevated to the starting role upon the demotion and release of Daniel Jones, was sacked four times and hit early and often. But there are a couple of reasons the Giants might stick around in the rematch of their 20-15 loss to Dallas earlier this season. For starters, the Cowboys are 0-5 at home and also pushed their backup into a starting role. Cooper Rush threw two TD passes last week but he wasn’t entirely responsible for Dallas putting up 34 points to upset Washington. They also had two implausible fourth-quarter kickoff return TDs and the Commanders suffered self-inflicted wounds, not the least of which was a missed extra point that would have tied the game at 27 with 14 seconds remaining. Given the state of affairs in New York, where rookie WR Malik Nabers defined the team’s effort as soft, and the questionable health of DeVito’s offensive line, the Cowboys are favored to sweep the two-game series from the Giants for the fourth consecutive season. Rush (knee) started the week hobbled but head coach Mike McCarthy said he was confident the QB would be ready for Thursday.

Miami Dolphins (5-6) at Green Bay Packers (8-3), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
If it’s Miami on the road late in the season, we’re talking temperature and the Dolphins’ miserable record in sub-freezing conditions tells a depressing tale for the fish. Miami is 0-12 in its last 12 games when temps at kickoff are 26 degrees or lower and it could be at or under that number Thursday night. Green Bay’s offensive line is setting the tone of late and it is built for plowing the path in front of RB Josh Jacobs, a downhill runner who is breaking tackles and taking names. Jacobs has six rushing touchdowns and three games with 95 rushing yards or more in the past four contests. The Dolphins haven’t proven capable of being a run-first outfit with De’Von Achane limited to 32 yards on 10 carries last week. But he flashes big-play potential as a secondary option to QB Tua Tagovailoa. Since returning from IR, Tagovailoa has 1,043 passing yards, 10 TD passes and a completion percentage over 77. The Packers are in the primetime spotlight the next four weeks while attempting to work their way up the playoff pecking order. They’ve won five of the past six games with the Dolphins. This is the second consecutive game for Packers coach Matt LaFleur opposing a former co-worker in Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. He beat Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers last week. All three overlapped on staffs with the Houston Texans (2008), Washington Redskins (2011-13) and Atlanta Falcons (2015-16).

–Friday
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-1), 3 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime
Normally cool and collected Chiefs coach Andy Reid nearly witnessed the coronary in Carolina courtesy of Bryce Young and the Panthers, who darted back into the game Sunday from an 11-point fourth-quarter deficit to force a game-ending field goal by Kansas City’s fill-in kicker Spencer Shrader. As if there was a reason needed to take the Raiders seriously, Las Vegas beat Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City on Christmas Day last season. Reid is 19-4 against the Raiders with the Chiefs and Mahomes is 11-2 since becoming the starter in 2018. Mahomes will become the Chiefs’ all-time leader in TD passes with his next score, breaking an existing tie with Len Dawson (237). Mahomes has an entertaining history with Raiders pass rusher Maxx Crosby, largely out of respectful competition. Crosby’s stamina will be tested by the Chiefs’ methodical offense. Kansas City is first in the NFL in 10-play drives (32) and third-down percentage (52.7), areas where the Raiders’ defense is below-average. Las Vegas is No. 22 in the NFL in third-down defense and allowed 104 total points in the past three games. Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell is preparing to start Friday and make his first appearance since a thumb injury sent him to IR Week 7. O’Connell returns to an offense leaning heavily on rookie TE Brock Bowers to produce. He leads the team with 74 receptions, 744 yards and three TD catches. He had five receptions for 55 yards in the Raiders’ 27-20 loss to the Chiefs on Oct. 27.

–Field Level Media

Tennessee Titans cornerback Roger McCreary (21) takes down Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders (6) during their game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023.

Week 13 Player Props: Remember Miles Sanders?

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Every team took the field over the Thanksgiving holiday but six of the 32 clubs take their bye in Week 13. You’d have to return to Week 7 to find the last time this many teams were on a bye, and the player prop pool was this shallow.

In the penultimate week for byes in the NFL, the final third of the regular season arrives with playoff positioning about to emerge as a plot every week.

The holiday feast of football helped us point to a few get-them-while-you-can bargains outlined below.

–Packers TE Tucker Kraft under 26.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
The Packers (5-6) are hunting for a wild card spot (no, seriously) thanks to back-to-back wins over the Chargers and the Lions. Jordan Love might be making a case to remain the starter for the Packers. He has five touchdowns and no interceptions during this recent winning streak.

Through 11 games, Love has a 19-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first year as an NFL starter. One thing that’s clear with Love’s game is that he’s trying to push the ball down the field.

Per Pro-Football-Reference, the Utah State product ranks fourth in intended air yards per pass attempt (9.3). If we look at the target share to tight ends, the Packers rank 22nd (18.1%) in this metric.

Green Bay will face a Chiefs defense that FTN Fantasy ranks seventh in its defense-adjusted value over average metric (DVOA) against opposing tight ends.

One spot above the Chiefs in sixth is the Detroit Lions, who held Kraft to 15 or fewer receiving yards in both meetings this season.

Kraft has only one game this season with more than two targets (3), and given how Love looks to stretch the field vertically, I recommend taking the under with Kraft’s receiving prop at 26.5 yards.

–Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence over 20.5 completions (-120 at BetMGM)
Although TeamRankings has the Jaguars as one of the more balanced teams, ranking eighth with a run rate of 44.32%, they also rank eighth with 65.6 plays per game.

Thus, given the number of plays per game, I’m not shocked to learn that the Jaguars have a positive pass rate over expectation (PROE) at 2.5%. In other words, the Jaguars call more passing plays than the average team in similar situations.

Yet Lawrence ranks ninth in Total QBR (61.7) despite being 20th in touchdowns (12). His completion percentage of 67.3 percentage puts him 11th in the league.

Lawrence, proving to be a very accurate passer, is coming off back-to-back performances with 23-plus completions. In 11 games this season, Lawrence finished with 21 or more completions eight times.

Jacksonville draws a Bengals’ pass defense that ranks 23rd in expected points added (EPA). Given the number of plays we can project for this offense, the completion prop feels a bit short at 20.5.

–Panthers RB Miles Sanders over 8.5 rush attempts (-100 at PointsBet)
Since joining the Panthers on a four-year deal, it hasn’t been a banner year for Sanders, primarily because of injuries. After averaging 4.9 yards per carry on 259 rushing attempts with the Eagles, Sanders is averaging just 3.1 yards on 97 attempts this season.

Sanders hasn’t lost a step at just 26 years of age. After all, it wasn’t like he had a heavy workload during his time with the Eagles. In his first three seasons with the Eagles, Sanders averaged 160 carries per season.

Sanders’ struggles are a microcosm of a Carolina season that’s been forgettable at best. And with just one win on the year, the Panthers fired head coach Frank Reich.

Special teams coordinator Chris Tabor will take over as the interim head coach. Although I’m not expecting Tabor to be a long-term solution, he does allow the Panthers to hit the reset button.

In the 10 games featuring Carolina’s rookie quarterback Bryce Young, he finished with under 30 pass attempts just once (29). While I understand that the Panthers often find themselves behind early in games, they are increasingly likely to be patient trying to achieve better balance offensively.

Per TeamRankings, Carolina ranks fourth in the league with a pass rate of 62.87%.

Tabor is likely to be conservative, trying to protect his quarterback while showing a more significant commitment to running the ball, even against a solid Buccaneers defense.

–Field Level Media

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy lasted only eight minutes in the NFC Championship Game at Philadelphia in January due to an elbow injury. San Francisco returns to Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Week 13 NFL Capsules

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Week 13 NFL capsules

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Tennessee Titans (4-7)
The Colts presently occupy the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. That’s a big credit to the running game, including Zack Moss, who’ll start with Jonathan Taylor (thumb) on the shelf again. Moss has rushed for a team-high 672 yards and five touchdowns on 141 carries — all career highs. His best game came in a 23-16 win against Tennessee on Oct. 8, gashing the Titans for 165 yards and two scores on 23 attempts. The Titans are mathematically alive for a wild-card spot but probably need to win out. The Titans were able to snap a three-game skid last week, edging Carolina 17-10 as Derrick Henry ran for two touchdowns. He’s averaging 107.8 rushing yards in home games this season.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at New England Patriots (2-9)
The Patriots have won the past six meetings with the Chargers, but that might be the only streak New England wants to discuss these days. Mac Jones is being benched in favor of Bailey Zappe (2-0 career as a starter), with the Patriots seeking a spark offensively. New England is putting up 13.5 points per game and has a turnover margin of minus-8. The Chargers’ situation isn’t nearly as dire, but Los Angeles is starting to see its playoff hopes fade. Since back-to-back wins over the Bears and Jets, the Chargers have dropped three straight games, including last Sunday’s 20-10 setback against the Baltimore Ravens.

Detroit Lions (8-3) at New Orleans Saints (5-6)
Quarterback Jared Goff spent part of Wednesday running through ball security drills, and he wasn’t alone. The Lions lost three fumbles with one takeaway in a 29-22 home loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving Day, four days after struggling to a 31-26 victory over Chicago, when Goff was picked off three times. The Saints are tied for fourth in the NFL with 20 takeaways. But New Orleans is trying to move past a 24-15 loss at Atlanta last week and has its own issues in the red zone. The Saints were stifled by the Falcons last week, reaching the red zone five times without scoring a touchdown. While the Saints netted five field goals, two of the possessions inside the 20 ended in turnovers, including a game-changing pick-6 thrown by Derek Carr.

Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at New York Jets (4-7)
All the Jets want for Christmas is their No. 1 QB, but Aaron Rodgers might be weeks — or months — away from taking his next snap. It’s up to Tim Boyle to move the Jets toward the playoffs to keep Rodgers’ return this season in play. Boyle hit RB Breece Hall for a career-high seven catches last week. Atlanta’s record may not look much better than that of the Jets, but the Falcons are leading the NFC South after beating the New Orleans Saints 24-15 last Sunday. Atlanta is 3-0 against division competition and 2-6 against all other teams. Desmond Ridder took back starting quarterback duties last week after a two-week benching and completed 13 of 21 passes for 168 yards, a touchdown and two picks — including one near the Saints’ goal line.

Arizona Cardinals (2-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
Arizona arrives in full rebuilding mode, armed with the second-worst record in the NFL, and brings James Conner for a reunion with his old team after he missed more than a month with injuries. He has rushed for 526 yards on 104 attempts in eight games. The Cardinals were ripped by their own coach for their effort following last week’s 37-14 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. They’ll need extra effort to contain Steelers pass rusher T.J. Watt, who is tied for the league lead in sacks with 13.5. The Steelers are leaning heavily on Watt and their defense to contend for a wild-card spot in the AFC and are currently second in the North division, 1 1/2 games behind the Baltimore Ravens.

Miami Dolphins (8-3) at Washington Commanders (4-8)
What in the world is Ron Rivera planning to do with the Miami Dolphins’ offensive machine after being blasted for an average of 38 points in the past two games? Dallas whipped Washington 45-10 last week, resulting in Rivera firing defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. The Dolphins average 30.8 points per game and the Commanders only hope might be matching Miami’s scoring output. Washington can move the ball. Sam Howell leads the NFL in completions (323) and passing yards (3,339) through the first 12 weeks of the season. The issue for the Commanders has been protecting Howell in the pocket. He’s on pace to shatter the NFL single-season record for times sacked.

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Houston Texans (6-5)
Don’t look now, but the Broncos are tied for the NFL’s longest winning streak at five games as they go head-to-head with potential wild-card competition in Houston. QB Russell Wilson’s next TD pass would push him past Dan Marino for second-most in his first 12 seasons (Marino had 328). The Texans are thrilled with the development of their own franchise quarterback, C.J. Stroud. He’s second in the NFL in passing yards and is the only rookie with four consecutive 300-yard games.

Carolina Panthers (1-10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)
For the second December in a row, the Buccaneers play the Panthers with an interim head coach at the helm in Carolina. Chris Tabor jumped into the head-coaching role Monday when Frank Reich was fired. The Buccaneers aren’t exactly in a groove, but they’re still squarely in the hunt for the division title behind a reclamation project well known to the Panthers, Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers get two swings at the Panthers in the next five weeks, the second one being the Jan. 7 finale. Mayfield began last season with Carolina and lasted seven games, with the team posting a 1-6 record, before he was released.

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams
If you had Joe Flacco starting for the Browns on your bingo card, we need visual evidence. That’s the potential reality for Cleveland with Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion) iffy, setting up a matchup of 38-year-old Flacco and 35-year-old Matthew Stafford in L.A. The Browns (7-4) hold the No. 6 seed in the AFC, one game clear of the seventh-seeded Indianapolis Colts. In last Sunday’s 37-14 win against the Arizona Cardinals, Stafford passed for 229 yards and a season-best four touchdowns — two each to Kyren Williams and tight end Tyler Higbee. Williams has been the team’s top playmaker as a rookie despite missing four games with an ankle injury.

San Francisco 49ers (8-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
The Eagles can clinch a playoff berth this weekend, a significant statement considering they are the sole team in position to secure a postseason spot with five weeks remaining in the regular season. In a return to the scene of last season’s NFC Championship Game, the 49ers are back to purring with Brock Purdy at quarterback, logging three consecutive wins to erase a three-game losing streak. Their last visit was marred by an elbow injury to Purdy as the Eagles cruised to the 31-7 win that elevated them into the Super Bowl. Come Sunday, Purdy is healthy and teammate Christian McCaffrey is flourishing, while Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is once again enjoying a solid season. Philadelphia owns the best record in the NFL after posting four straight comeback wins and recording five consecutive overall wins. San Francisco leads the NFC West after winning its past three games. Purdy was injured eight minutes into the playoff loss last season. He leads the NFL with a 70.2 completion percentage and benefits from McCaffrey, who leads the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns (16).

Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)
Kansas City has put plenty of pressure on opposing teams this season. The Chiefs, who lead the AFC West by two games over the Broncos, won Jordan Love’s debut NFL start in November 2021, 13-7. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed for 298 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Running back Isiah Pacheco scored twice on the ground, and Rashee Rice and Justin Watson notched one touchdown reception apiece. TE Travis Kelce has at least six catches in eight of his past nine games. The trip to northern Wisconsin will carry special meaning for Kansas City coach Andy Reid. He started his NFL coaching career in Green Bay, where he worked from 1992-98 as a tight ends coach, an assistant offensive line coach and eventually a quarterbacks coach. Brett Favre and the Packers won the Super Bowl during the 1996 season with Reid on the staff.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
It’s reunion week for Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor, who brings his Bengals into Jacksonville having lost three straight and falling into the cellar of the AFC North. Jacksonville is coached by Doug Pederson, and Taylor’s younger brother, Press, serves as the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator of a unit that has star quarterback Trevor Lawrence. In addition to the losing streak, the Bengals lost QB Joe Burrow to a season-ending hand injury. Jake Browning gets the call for Cincinnati with the Jaguars playing their first Monday night game since Dec. 5, 2011. Jacksonville has won seven of its past eight games and sits atop the AFC South. The Jags have the NFL’s fourth-ranked run defense (87.4 yards allowed per game), while Lawrence leads the offense and is coming off a 364-yard passing performance in their 24-21 win at Houston.

–Field Level Media

Nov 26, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) celebrates after a touchdown with quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) against the New Orleans Saints in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Week 13 betting preview: No teasing, we like the Rams, Falcons

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Success with our picks in recent weeks has caused perhaps a dangerous level of confidence, but you don’t question winning streaks in sports betting.

On the heels of our Week 11 “Love-in” – the emergence of Jordan Love as a useful NFL quarterback – we jumped aboard the train carrying the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills in Week 12.

Two more winning teaser bets at plus money (ATL +3.5 and the over 36.5; BUF +7.5 and the over 41.5) and we’re ready to rinse and repeat.

(Full disclosure: Our player prop of Stefon Diggs over 79 receiving yards fell 12 doggone feet short of cashing.)

Let’s go hunting.

See our primary play, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

Falcons at Jets, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Falcons -1.5, total 34 (FanDuel)

The Falcons stepped up and won an ugly NFC South matchup with the New Orleans Saints last week. The division title is right there for the taking.

And Desmond Ridder is the man to lead them … well, about that level of confidence.

Ridder wasn’t great last week, throwing two picks including one at the Saints 1-yard line late in the second quarter.

That said, he doesn’t need to be great because coach Arthur Smith and the offensive staff are finally letting the big dog, Bijan Robinson, eat a little more.

Robinson handled an increased workload like a champ, and he looks ready to flex again in New Jersey.

Atlanta rushed for a season-high 228 yards against New Orleans.

Ridder and Robinson – along with Robinson’s running mate Tyler Allgeier – will put enough points on the board to top New York’s struggling offense.

The Jets need to win two of their next three to even sniff a chance at offering Aaron Rodgers a meaningful snap this season.

And Tim Boyle is the man to lead them …. again, confidence level.

A defense initially heralded as top of the heap (maybe even A-number-one), is not so threatening anymore. Last week, the Miami Dolphins put up 34 points (that included a pick-6, but we digress) at the Jets.

The New York malaise is hardly the fault of the defense, of course.

Fun stat, courtesy of Action Network:

“The NFL average for series success rate is 70% on offense, which means that offenses turn a first-and-10 into another first down or touchdown 70% of the time league-wide.

“The Patriots rank 30th at 65% … the Giants are 31st at 60% and the Jets are all the way down at 58%.”

Jets coach Robert Saleh said he’s hopeful that tackle Mekhi Becton (ankle, knee) will be back Sunday after missing the Dolphins game.

The bet: Same-game parlay, Falcons teased to +3.5 with the over teased to 28.5 (odds of -110 at FanDuel).

THEY SAID IT

“We’re about to go play a really good defense in New York so (the offense) better be ready to go. … I thought the offensive line played the best game since I’ve been here (against New Orleans). We’ve invested heavily in those guys and we’ve just got to stick with our way of doing things.”

– Falcons coach Arthur Smith.

BONUS COMBO

Browns at Rams, 4:25 p.m. ET

The line: Rams -3.5, total 40 (BetMGM).

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is a Super Bowl champ, and his team is finding its footing as it returns to full health.

LA crushed the Arizona Cardinals last week, and running back Kyren Williams looks every bit a standout. Last week was his first game back from an ankle injury that cost him an entire month.

The Cleveland Browns are decimated. Injuries hit hard, claiming Deshaun Watson and backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion).

Cleveland might start veteran Joe Flacco, who was signed only 10 days ago.

If not Flacco, PJ Walker will start. He is 38th out of 41 quarterbacks in efficiency.

The Browns’ defense, led by Myles Garrett, is terrific. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Garrett suffered a shoulder injury and, best case if he plays, he will play with pain Sunday.

The play: Same-game parlay, Rams teased to -2.5 with the over teased to 30.5 (at +110 odds, per BetMGM).

PROP CORNER

This is a great spot for the continued “Bijan Breakout” experience.

The Jets defense is a little overhyped – and vulnerable to the run – while boasting a talented secondary.

Receiver Drake London may be slowed by Sauce Gardner, fine, but who was second last week behind London’s seven targets? Bijan! He caught three of his six targets for 32 yards.

Robinson also carried the ball 16 times for 91 yards, and his usage doesn’t figure to decrease this week.

Prop play: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson over 79.5 rushing+receiving yards. (-145 at DraftKings).

–Field Level Media

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) and head coach Dan Campbell talk on the sidelines during first half action against the Philadelphia Eagles at Ford Field on Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021. Detroit Lions

Saints target takeaways, welcome Detroit, Dan Campbell ‘home’

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Pride runs deep with Dan Campbell, who has the Detroit Lions in first place in the NFC North.

He’ll head “home” to square off with Dennis Allen, who has the New Orleans Saints tied for first place in the NFC South and has been connected to Campbell since serving as a graduate assistant at Texas A&M in the late 1990s.

“It’s special,” Campbell said of returning to the Caesars Superdome. “It’s a little like going home. That’s why I’m fired up to go back there because I know winning in that building.”

The Lions (8-3) are three games ahead of Minnesota and Green Bay in the loss column as Detroit tries to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Saints (5-6) lost their last two games but remain in the thick of the all-sub-.500 South division.

Campbell and Allen were assistants on Sean Payton’s staff for five seasons before the Lions hired Campbell in 2021. When Payton resigned after the 2021 season, a year before returning as head coach in Denver, Allen succeeded him.

“I know what they’re made of,” Campbell said of the Saints. “I know they’re prideful guys. It was a winning organization and still is. They have an opportunistic defense and they’re going to try and make you mess it up.”

Detroit has messed up a little more than usual the past two games. Quarterback Jared Goff spent part of Wednesday running through ball security drills, and he wasn’t alone.

The Lions lost three fumbles with one takeaway in a 29-22 home loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving Day, four days after struggling to a 31-26 victory over Chicago, when Goff was picked off three times.

“We’re turning the ball over too much offensively and we had one on special teams,” Campbell said. “That’s the major issue right now. It’s doom and gloom outside our building.”

The Saints are tied for fourth in the NFL with 20 takeaways. But New Orleans doesn’t always know what to do with them, and is trying to move past a 24-15 loss at Atlanta last week.

New Orleans was stifled by the Falcons, reaching the red zone five times without scoring a touchdown. While the Saints netted five field goals, two of the possessions inside the 20 ended in turnovers, including a game-changing pick-6 thrown by Derek Carr.

“That’s been an issue for us,” Allen said. “We haven’t been able to get that corrected.”

The Saints rank 29th in the NFL in percentage of trips into the red zone producing touchdowns (42.5). Allen said the team is spending extra time on red-zone offense.

“There are a lot of factors involved in it,” Allen said. “It’s protection, routes, concepts, execution. It’s certainly an area where we’re not as good as we need to be.”

For New Orleans, which finished 7-10 in Allen’s first season as head coach last year, it could be worse. The Saints play in the only division in which every team has a losing record.

Though tied for first, New Orleans currently loses tiebreakers to Atlanta and Tampa Bay with five weeks to go in the regular season.

“We understand the sense of urgency,” Allen said.

Four Saints starters missed practice Wednesday: defensive end Cameron Jordan (ankle), linebacker Pete Werner (shoulder/oblique), safety Marcus Maye (shoulder) and wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (thigh). Wide receiver Chris Olave (concussion protocol), center Erik McCoy (shoulder) and kicker Blake Grupe (groin) were limited.

Former Saints linebacker Alex Anzalone, Detroit’s leading tackler, missed practice because of a hand injury.

–Field Level Media

Nov 12, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

NFL moves up start time for Broncos-Texans game in Week 13

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The NFL shuffled the start times of two games during its schedule for Week 13, the league announced Tuesday.

The Denver Broncos’ road game against rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans has been moved up approximately three hours to 1 p.m. ET. The Carolina Panthers’ road contest versus the NFC South rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in turn, has been moved from 1 p.m. to 4:05 p.m. ET.

The game pitting the Broncos (5-5) and Texans (6-4), two upstart teams with playoff aspirations, will be aired on CBS.

The San Francisco 49ers’ clash against the Philadelphia Eagles will start at 4:25 p.m. on FOX in a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game.

–Field Level Media

Nov 28, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2) celebrates his touchdown pass by doing the TY Hilton celebration in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Ten tempting TD scorer props for Week 13

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Week 13 is here and it’s time to scan the board for the best touchdown scorer props of the weekend.

The approach is finding plus-odds spots. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is in a great spot to score this weekend, but at -200, we’re not chasing limited value.

Here are 10 touchdown props I’ve got my eye on for the NFL’s Week 13 action:

Colts WR Zach Pascal: +210
It’s always a good bet to slot in players who get the Houston Texans that week, considering how poor their defense has been throughout much of the season.

This week it’s Pascal, who is tied for the lead amongst Colts pass-catchers in red zone looks, with 11.

Pascal is the clear No. 2 receiver, playing over 90% of the snaps, and should have his opportunities against a vulnerable Houston secondary.

–Bengals RB Samaje Perine: +500
How do you feel about a vulture pick? At +500, I’m seriously intrigued by Perine.

The Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, and only one team sees more running back touchdowns against them than LA.

Joe Mixon is the bell-cow in this offense, but Perine has six red zone carries this season and will spell the Bengals top back at times in this game.

To me, it’s a worthy selection at these odds. It helps that this game is tied for the highest over/under of the weekend, at 50.5 points. Touchdowns will be scored.

–Eagles RB Boston Scott: +260
We included Scott in this piece last week and he delivered, so we’re loading him back again. No team allows more touchdowns per game to running backs than the New York Jets, seeing 1.91 per game.

It’s Scott and Miles Sanders in this backfield, but Scott has taken on a red zone role and will have his chances on Sunday.

–Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow: +140
Las Vegas ranks inside the top-ten in pass attempts and will be moving the ball through the air as much as they can against what has been a generous Washington secondary for much of the season.

In comes Renfrow, the top receiver for the Raiders. Renfrow leads the wide receivers in red zone targets with 12. Washington gives up the fourth most touchdowns per game to WRs.

–Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth: +210
Freiermuth has a touchdown in four of his last five games, and at +210 against a vulnerable Baltimore secondary, I’m liking his chances at another.

Freiermuth has 15 red zone looks this year, second on the team behind Najee Harris. The Ravens see the fourth-highest number of TDs to tight ends.

–Vikings WR Adam Thielen: +105
To slightly deviate from the odds from above, I love Thielen at +105.

The Lions secondary has been awful all season, a tremendous target for all wide receiver props. Thielen has 10 scores on the year and will look to make it 11 against a Detroit team that can’t stop pass-catchers.

–Seahawks RB Adrian Peterson: +290
If you want to take a flier pick, why not newly-signed Peterson on the Seahawks?

Pete Carroll claims Peterson was signed because Seattle wants to win now. With Alex Collins banged up, there’s a realistic chance AP sees meaningful time on Sunday.

San Francisco allows the fourth-most touchdowns to running backs.

–Cardinals TE Zach Ertz: +190
Ertz has been a focal point of the Arizona red zone offense since joining the team, and with Kyler Murray expected to return, I like his chances to find the end zone once again.

The Bears have given up three touchdowns to tight ends in their past three games. Ertz scored twice last week.

–Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate: +450
I’ve mentioned in previous articles, a baseline strategy to target touchdown props is looking at the games with the highest over/unders. Logic suggests more touchdowns will be scored. The Bucs-Falcons game fits the bill, with a total at 50.5 points.

The Tampa passing attack is loaded, and Brate is the one that gives us the best potential payout at +450 odds.

Brate has seven red zone targets in his past three games and plays around 35% of the snaps.

–Colts QB Carson Wentz: +450
For a fun one, we go back to the Houston Texans. This time, it’s Wentz to rush one in at +450.

Houston allows 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, the second-highest mark in the NFL. Is it that crazy that we bet on this big-bodied quarterback to take one himself near the goalline?

Touchdown props should be a mixture of data-based decisions with a mix of fun. This certainly sways to the fun side, but I’m rolling with it on Sunday.

–By Griffin Carroll (@Griffybets), Field Level Media