Tag: Week 16

Week 16 NFL Capsules

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Capsules for NFL Week 16 Sunday games are below.

Buffalo Bills (10-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-11)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Bills -10.5, Total 41.5
Series Rewind: The Browns have the 13-10 edge all-time (counting playoffs), but Buffalo has won three of the past four and five of seven in the series. However, it’s been since 2012 that the Bills won in Cleveland, falling short there in 2013 and 2019.

The Bills have at least 10 wins for the seventh straight season, the longest streak in franchise history. Next in their sights is seven straight years with a playoff trip; the Bills need one more win along with a loss by either Houston or Indianapolis in order to punch their ticket. Reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen leads the league’s top rushing offense (158.5 yards per game) and third-best scoring offense (29.4 ppg), as he has totaled 37 touchdowns to this point, 25 passing and 12 rushing. Dawson Knox had two touchdown receptions in last week’s crucial win over AFC East leader New England, and he could see additional playing time if fellow tight end Dalton Kincaid is hindered by his knee injury. Browns rookie QB Shedeur Sanders will face a tall task in challenging the Bills, who boast the second-stingiest passing defense (169.5 yards per game) in the NFL. Sanders’ fifth career game and fourth start was his worst so far, with 177 yards and three picks in last week’s 31-3 loss at Chicago. The Browns are not playoff-bound, but one storyline worth watching is Myles Garrett’s shot at breaking the single-season sacks record. He collected 1.5 sacks last week to boost his season total to 21.5, one shy of the record shared by Michael Strahan (in 2001) and T.J. Watt (in 2021).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (7-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Buccaneers -3, Total 48.5
Series Rewind: The Buccaneers walloped Carolina 48-14 last December and swept the 2024 season series to run their dominance in the series to nine wins in the past 10 games.

Since the start of the 2021 season, the Buccaneers can claim ownership of the South, holding at least a share of the division lead for 73 of the 87 weeks with four consecutive division titles. Carolina last won the division in 2015 but the Panthers share first place in the NFC South, matching Tampa Bay’s current 7-7 record with three weeks — and two games against the Buccaneers — left in the regular season. “We’re in the same position we’ve been in the past two or three years,” Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles said of a tight race. “We have an opportunity. We still have everything right in front of us. … We’re playing meaningful games in December.” The Panthers might be early arrivals to the postseason conversation under second-year coach Dave Canales. Wins over NFC contenders — most recently beating the Los Angeles Rams, 31-28, on Nov. 30 — has helped shift the narrative. Canales and the Panthers are well aware of the final step necessary to realize a postseason goal: beat the division champs. The Buccaneers have won five consecutive meetings and during their 9-1 string over the past five years, Tampa outscored Carolina by 124 points (287-163). The Buccaneers have won only once since October, so their 1-5 record coming down the stretch has been troublesome. They’ve lost to NFC South rivals New Orleans and Atlanta in their past two games. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, a former Panther, was coached by Canales in Tampa before the Panthers hired him away in 2024. Mayfield should have a nice selection of weapons to work with after last week’s return of wide receiver Mike Evans. Coming back from a collarbone injury, Evans hauled in six catches for 132 yards in the Atlanta game and already had the Panthers’ full attention.

Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Cowboys -1.5, Total 49.5
Series Rewind: The Chargers have won their past three road games in the series. Their last road loss against Dallas came in 1990 when the Cowboys played in Irving.

The Cowboys must win their three remaining regular-season games and have the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles lose all three of theirs to avoid missing the playoffs for the second straight season. The outlook isn’t looking good after Dallas allowed 78 total points while losing back-to-back games to the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. Dak Prescott leads the NFL with 3,931 passing yards while closing in on his fourth career 4,000-yard campaign. Tony Romo is the only Cowboys quarterback currently with four such seasons. Prescott ranks third with 26 touchdown passes, and he has been intercepted 10 times. Wideout CeeDee Lamb is 24 yards shy of his fifth straight 1,000-yard season. The Chargers are red-hot with six wins in their past seven games. Los Angeles can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Cowboys along with some help from either the Las Vegas Raiders (against the Houston Texans) or San Francisco 49ers (vs. the Indianapolis Colts). The Chargers allowed just 239 yards in last week’s 16-13 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs. It marked the third straight game and sixth in the past seven that the Chargers gave up 20 or fewer points. Justin Herbert (3,191 yards) will play for the third straight week after undergoing left hand surgery.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) at Tennessee Titans (2-12)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Chiefs -3, Total 37.5
Series Rewind: Andy Reid is 3-9 all-time against the Titans. Tennessee interim head coach Mike McCoy is 2-6 all-time against the Chiefs.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid isn’t in a tinsel-tossing mood days after losing Patrick Mahomes to a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. While Mahomes gets busy attacking post-surgery rehabilitation with a goal of getting on the field in September, the Titans are eager for any advantage to help further rookie QB Cam Ward’s development. Tennessee has been outscored by a league-worst 169 points with 24 fewer touchdowns than its opponents. The Chiefs have a three-game losing streak and lug the emotional letdown of losing Mahomes and what was left of faint playoff hopes last week in a 16-13 heartbreaker to the Chargers. Gardner Minshew takes the reins for the Chiefs with questions around the formation due to injuries at the wide receiver position. He went to TE Travis Kelce consistently in his cameo subbing for Mahomes last week. Kelce is 203 yards shy of 1,000 yards for the season and 13 receptions away from hitting 80 for the 10th year in a row. The Titans have their highest two-game point total of the season — 55. Kansas City put up 23 total points the past two weeks and was held under 275 total yards by the Chargers and Texans.

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New York Giants (2-12)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Vikings -2.5, Total 43.5
Series Rewind: What a difference a year makes. Minnesota opened the 2024 season with a 28-6 win against the Giants at MetLife Stadium when the starting QBs were Sam Darnold (Vikings) and Daniel Jones (New York).

A couple of 22-year-old quarterbacks go head-to-head as Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy makes his ninth NFL start and New York’s Jaxson Dart makes his 10th. The Vikings have followed up a four-game losing streak with two straight wins against the NFC East, with McCarthy throwing five touchdowns and just one interception in victories against the Commanders and Cowboys. The Giants have lost eight in a row and are 0-2 against the NFC North with losses to the Bears and Packers. Dart leads all rookie QBs in TD passes (13) and ranks second in passing yards (1,802). Vikings star Justin Jefferson hasn’t caught a touchdown pass since Week 9 and hasn’t topped 100 yards since Week 5. New York first-round pick LB Abdul Carter is coming off a monster game vs. Washington and is looking for his third straight game with a sack. Giants LB Brian Burns is second in the NFL with 13 sacks. McCarthy has been sacked 24 times in eight games.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Bengals -4.5, Total 47.5
Series Rewind: The Dolphins lead the all-time series 18-8, but the Bengals won the most recent game in the series (27-15 in 2022) and have won three of the past five over Miami.

While Cincinnati and Miami were both eliminated from playoff contention with their losses last week, they’re approaching that news in vastly different ways. The Dolphins are benching starting QB Tua Tagavailoa, who has a league-leading 15 interceptions and had just 65 passing yards through three quarters of Monday’s 28-15 loss at Pittsburgh. Quinn Ewers, a seventh-round pick in April’s draft, will make his first career start against the Bengals. He came off the bench to complete 5 of 8 passes for 53 yards in his first career appearance Oct. 19 at Cleveland. He’ll likely be helped by breakout running back De’Von Achane, who has 105-plus scrimmage yards in six straight games and a touchdown in 10 of his last 11 home games. The Bengals, on the other hand, are sticking with quarterback Joe Burrow despite not having any remaining postseason stakes. Cincinnati was shut out for the first time in a Burrow start last week, falling 24-0 at home to the Ravens. In his first three starts back from a toe injury that sidelined him for nine games, Burrow has 770 passing yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions. With 132 yards last week, receiver Ja’Marr Chase became just the second player in NFL history (along with Randy Moss) to amass 6,500 receiving yards and 50 touchdown catches in his first five seasons.

New York Jets (3-11) at New Orleans Saints (4-10)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Saints -5.5, Total 40.5
Series Rewind: These teams have faced off just five times in the past 20 years. New Orleans has won four of those games, including the past two, to claim an 8-6 lead in the all-time series.

While both New York and New Orleans are nearing the end of underwhelming seasons, they probably feel a bit differently about the rookie quarterbacks they’ll start in this week’s matchup. Saints second-round pick Tyler Shough enters coming off back-to-back wins over division opponents, the team’s first multiple-game winning streak of the season. After rushing for 55 yards and two scores Dec. 7 vs. Tampa Bay, Shough completed a career-high 75% of his passes for 272 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s 20-17 win over Carolina. New Orleans is 3-4 when Shough starts after it was 1-6 with Spencer Rattler at the helm. With 52 more receiving yards, Saints running back Alvin Kamara would become the fifth player in NFL history with 5,000 rushing and receiving yards in his career. Jets rookie QB Brady Cook has been forced into action due to injuries to Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields. He had a touchdown and three interceptions in his first career start last week vs. Jacksonville and has thrown 339 yards and five interceptions in his first two games. Jets coach Aaron Glenn fired defensive coordinator Steve Wilks this week after the defense allowed 48 points in the loss to the Jaguars. New York is 30th in scoring defense (28.4 points per game) and last in takeaways (three), with no interceptions this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at Denver Broncos (12-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Broncos -3.5, Total 46.5
Series Rewind: The Broncos have won four of the past five games to take an 8-6 lead in the series. The road team has won the past four times Denver and Jacksonville faced off.

The Broncos became the first AFC team to punch their playoff ticket with last week’s 34-26 win over Green Bay, their 11th straight to tie the franchise record. Things don’t get easier from here with a Jacksonville team that has won five straight games coming to town this week. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw a career-high five touchdowns and ran for a sixth in last week’s 48-20 beatdown of the Jets. After he had 11 interceptions in the first 11 games of the season, Lawrence has nine TDs and no picks in the past three games. Jacksonville has scored 35-plus points in three of its last five games. While the Jaguars have a one-game cushion in the AFC South, Denver has a one-game cushion in the race for the AFC No. 1 seed with its win last week paired with New England’s loss to Buffalo. Broncos QB Bo Nix tied his career high with four touchdowns last week, as Denver outscored the Packers 20-3 over the final 25 minutes of the game. The Broncos’ defense leads the league with 58 sacks, 10 more than any other team and just off the pace of breaking the Bears’ NFL record of 72 sacks in 1984. Jacksonville’s defense had three interceptions last week to bring its season tally to 18, second in the league.

Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Falcons -2.5, Total 47.5
Series Rewind: The Falcons are 1-9 in the desert, including a wild-card playoff loss in the 2008 season. Since the Cardinals left St. Louis in 1988, Atlanta’s lone win at Arizona was a 34-14 victory on Sept. 30, 2001.

Arizona is on a six-game losing streak and hasn’t won a home game since Week 2 against the Panthers. Atlanta has won two of its last three road games, including a 29-28 win at Tampa Bay in Week 15. Both teams are playing out the string with backup quarterbacks, with 37-year-old Kirk Cousins leading the Falcons against journeyman Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals. Cousins turned back the clock with a season-high 373 yards and three TDs against the Bucs, while Brissett leads the NFL with 2,708 passing yards since replacing Kyler Murray in Week 6. Bijan Robinson has been a bright spot for Atlanta, leading the NFL with 1,858 yards from scrimmage, and TE Kyle Pitts is coming off an epic 11-catch, 166-yard, three-touchdown game at Tampa. Cardinals counterpart Trey McBride just became the first tight end in NFL history with back-to-back 100-catch seasons. Falcons edge James Pearce has recorded a sack in six straight games, two shy of the NFL rookie record (Jevon Kearse, 1999).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) at Houston Texans (9-5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Texans -14.5, Total 37.5
Series Rewind: The Raiders routed Houston 38-20 in 2022 when they had Derek Carr (241 passing yards, one TD), Josh Jacobs (143 rushing yards, three TDs) and Davante Adams (eight catches, 95 yards) on the roster.

The Texans are currently in possession of the final AFC wild-card spot but have their eyes on overtaking the Jacksonville Jaguars and winning the AFC South. Houston has rattled off six straight wins and registered a season high for points last week with a 40-20 rout of the Arizona Cardinals. C.J. Stroud passed for 260 yards and three touchdowns with Nico Collins collecting two of the scoring receptions. The Texans also have allowed 20 or fewer points in five straight games behind the best all-around defense in the NFL. Defensive ends Danielle Hunter (12 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (10.5) are each enjoying big campaigns. The Raiders have been big disappointments in Pete Carroll’s first season as coach and are tied with the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants for the league’s worst record. Las Vegas has dropped eight consecutive games, twice losing 31-0, first to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7 and to the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. Kenny Pickett passed for just 64 yards and the Raiders had just 75 total yards and seven first downs. Rookie Ashton Jeanty has rushing outputs of 31, 30 and 35 yards over the past three games. Linebacker Devin White (149 tackles) and defensive end Maxx Crosby (10 sacks) have been shining standouts during the dismal campaign.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at Detroit Lions (8-6)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Lions -6.5, Total 51.5
Series Rewind: The Steelers have won five of the past six meetings, but the most recent game in 2021 went to overtime and ended in a 16-16 tie.

The rapid release of Rams veteran QB Matthew Stafford stunted the Lions’ pass rush last week, prompting similar concerns for head coach Dan Campbell as the Lions hit Week 16 knowing there’s only one possible way into the postseason: win three consecutive games and hope for chaos to strike the seven teams ahead of them in the NFC playoff picture. Both coaches referenced expectations for a physical game won in the trenches this week. The Lions put up 34 points in a loss to the Rams last week and there’s as much power as there is pomp in the Detroit scheme. Pittsburgh gears up for Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who has 1,100 rushing yards, 494 receiving yards and 16 total touchdowns in 2025. The Lions average 131.1 yards per game on the ground and the Steelers are giving up 120.9 rushing yards per game as part of the league’s 28th-ranked defense in total yards allowed (383.3 per game). Aaron Rodgers and his snappy delivery make pressuring the pocket a long day’s work but Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson leads the NFL in pressures. He’s getting help from a group he dubbed “castoffs,” which includes the team’s leader in catches, No. 2 running back Kenneth Gainwell. The Steelers are likely to emphasize Jaylen Warren and Gainwell due to the balance they can bring an inconsistent offense. Gainwell had 126 yards from scrimmage Monday in the Steelers’ win over the Miami Dolphins on Monday.

New England Patriots (11-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
FanDuel odds: Ravens -3, Total 48.5
Series Rewind: The teams have split the past eight meetings after the Patriots won seven of the first eight (including playoffs).

The Patriots are 6-0 on the road this season and stand one game behind the Denver Broncos in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. New England will know when it takes the field Sunday night whether it can clinch a playoff spot with a win. Results involving the Indianapolis Colts (vs. San Francisco 49ers) and Houston Texans (vs. Las Vegas Raiders) are in play. Drake Maye passed for a season-low 155 yards in last week’s 35-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills. The setback ended a 10-game winning streak. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson rushed for 148 yards — one more than his previous high — and two touchdowns. Baltimore is two games behind the Texans in the wild-card chase so its best bet to reach the playoffs is overtaking the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. Baltimore is one game behind but will play at Pittsburgh in the final week of the season. The Ravens halted a two-game losing streak with a strong 24-0 win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Bengals had clobbered Baltimore 17 days earlier. Derrick Henry rushed for 100 yards on just 11 carries and ranks fifth in the NFL with 1,125 yards. Linebacker Roquan Smith racked up 14 tackles and leads the squad with 114.

–Field Level Media

Week 16 Numbers Game: History, trends and records on the line Sunday

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Denver has 12 consecutive home wins and the NFL’s longest active win streak as the Broncos attempt to keep their stride toward the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

Ahead of Sunday’s game against the Jaguars, Denver’s winning streak stands at 11 and Jacksonville has won five in a row to jump to the lead in the AFC South.

If quarterback Bo Nix gets the Broncos to the finish line with two more wins to close out the regular season, he’ll break a current tie with Andrew Luck (Colts), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) and Dak Prescott (Cowboys) for the second-most wins in the first two seasons of a quarterback’s career (22) and tie the record held by Russell Wilson (Seahawks).

With three wins to end the regular season, Nix would set that NFL record with 25 victories.

–The Bears and Patriots are in line to give the NFL a worst-to-playoffs — and perhaps worst-to-first — turnaround story.

Since 1996, at least one team has made the playoffs the season after finishing in last or tied for last place in 26 of 29 seasons.

Chicago can clinch a playoff spot on Saturday with a win and Detroit loss to the Steelers on Sunday, or a Chicago tie and Detroit loss, after ending the 2024 season in last place in the NFC North.

The Patriots were last in the AFC East in 2024. But New England has a win-and-in game at Baltimore on Sunday night.

–New England is trying to improve to 7-0 on the road this season. A victory would be the Patriots’ 12th of the season and their 14th 12-win season in team history, ranking behind only the San Francisco 49ers (16) and Dallas Cowboys (15).

–Don Shula (51 years and 308 days old) and Curly Lambeau (48 years and 222 days old) are the only coaches who achieved 200 career NFL wins at a younger age than Mike Tomlin, who can become the 11th member of the 200 Club. Tomlin, 53, has 199 career wins since being hired by the Steelers in 2007. He’s also in position to produce his 19th season with a record of .500 or better.

Marty Schottenheimer (19 seasons) is fourth on the list dating to 1970.

Shula (24 seasons), Andy Reid (23) and Bill Belichick (21) are the only coaches with more .500-or-better seasons.

Rams coach Sean McVay, 39, can record his 100th career win on Thursday night at Seattle and at least three other opportunities after that given Los Angeles clinched a playoff berth last week.

Only two coaches in won their 100th game before age 40. Pro Football Hall of Famers Curly Lambeau (36 years and 174 days old) and George Halas (39 years and 254 days old).

–Browns defensive end Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 21.5 sacks and is first with 124 sacks since entering the league in 2017, the second-most by a player in his first nine seasons.

Garrett can surpass Michael Strahan (22.5 sacks in 2001 with the New York Giants) and T.J. Watt (22.5 in 2021 with Pittsburgh) to claim the record for most sacks in a season since the league made it an official statistic in 1982.

–Green Bay has won 26 of the last 31 meetings between the Packers and Bears at Soldier Field, including 14 of the last 15, and 17 of the past 19 overall in the series. This is only the second all-time Saturday game between these division rivals, who’ve played 211 times. The Packers lead 109-96-6.

–The 49ers have allowed 41 total points in the fourth quarter this season (2.9 per game). Only the Packers (16 fourth-quarter points in 14 games this season) have given up fewer.

–The Los Angeles Chargers are the only one team in the NFL with four players over 500 receiving yards this season: wide receiver Quinton Johnston (533 yards), tight end Orande Gadsden II (602), and receivers Keenan Allen (688) and Ladd McConkey (715 yards).

–Buccaneers wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. are approaching the combined 17K Club. With 16,858 yards in their nine seasons together, the tandem is No. 5 in league history for combined receiving yards in the regular season and within striking distance of Colts greats Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne (17, 155 in 10 seasons) and Dolphins WRs Mark Clayton and Mark Duper (17,512 in 10 seasons). Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are No. 1 on the list with 21,310 yards in nine seasons. Jerry Rice and John Taylor had 18,224 in nine seasons with the 49ers.

–Colts running back Jonathan Taylor can climb to third on the single-season rushing yards list with 111 yards on Monday against the San Francisco 49ers. Counterpart Christian McCaffrey needs seven receptions to pass Roger Craig for the team single-season record for catches by a running back.

–Field Level Media

Commanders set on spoiling Philly’s playoff party

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Philadelphia is on the brink of becoming the NFC East’s first repeat champion since the Eagles won the division four straight years from 2001-04.

More than two decades later, the Eagles (9-5) only need to win one of the three regular-season games left on their schedule or have the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1) lose one of their three remaining contests.

Philadelphia’s first opportunity to clinch comes on Saturday afternoon against the Washington Commanders (4-10) in Landover, Md.

The stakes were considerably higher the last time these teams met, when the Eagles delivered a 55-23 smackdown against the Commanders in the NFC Championship game last January before going on to win Super Bowl LIX.

Both teams enter Saturday’s contest after much-needed victories last weekend. Philadelphia snapped a three-game losing streak by blanking the Las Vegas Raiders 31-0, while Washington halted an eight-game slide with a 29-21 road win against the New York Giants.

If the Commanders hope to spoil, or at least delay, the Eagles’ NFC East coronation, they will have to do it without Jayden Daniels. He is participating in practice but coach Dan Quinn said he will not pay again this season in order to allow his troublesome elbow to heal up for 2026.

“I’ll be out there practicing whatever they need me to do,” Daniels said. “(If) I gotta do scout team, I’ll have fun with that and get the best looks and really just be out here, like I said, be supportive of all my teammates and still be engaged and bring some energy.”

Marcus Mariota will be making his eighth start of the season for Washington. The veteran journeyman has passed for 1,600 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Coming off one of the worst games of his career, Jalen Hurts bounced back with an efficient performance against the Raiders. He threw for 175 yards and three touchdowns on 12-of-15 passing with no interceptions after tossing four picks in the Week 14 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

Despite the ebbs and flows the Philadelphia offense has experienced all season, the Eagles have done enough to put themselves in a favorable position.

“The thing for us is we’ve gotten to this point and we’ve been able to get to this point and to be playing in big time games not really establishing an identity, and so I think it is healthy to have won games in a lot of ways,” Hurts said. “I think it’s encouraging to be able to build off of something positive.”

The Eagles have an opportunity to build more momentum against a Washington defense that ranks 31st in the NFL, allowing 382.6 yards per game.

The Commanders have also been plagued by turnovers all season, committing at least two turnovers in seven of their last nine games.

These teams will meet again in Philadelphia to close out the regular season.

The first practice in Philadelphia this week was a walkthrough, but several key players were listed as not practicing: running back Saquon Barkley (stinger), defensive tackle Jalen Carter (shoulders) and offensive linemen Lane Johnson (foot), Fred Johnson (ankle) and Landon Dickerson (calf).

For the Commanders, defensive tackle Eddie Goldman (concussion), left tackle Laremy Tunsil (oblique) and tight end Colson Yankoff (ankle) did not practice on Tuesday.

–Field Level Media

Week 16 Playoff Picture: Broncos can clinch AFC’s top seed

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Denver is the first AFC team to clinch a playoff spot and the Broncos have their sights set on the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage.

The Broncos (12-2) would need almost everything to break their way in Week 16 to secure the West division title and a first-round bye in the AFC: beat Jacksonville (10-4), a loss by the Patriots and a loss or tie by the Chargers and Bills. They’ll be AFC West champs for the first time since 2015 with a win or tie against the Jaguars and a loss or tie by the Chargers (10-4).

Should the Jaguars win in Denver, not only does Jacksonville clinch a playoff spot, but everything in the conference becomes a shade more interesting. It keeps the Chargers alive in the division race and kicks the door open to multiple teams for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

The Chargers clinch a playoff spot with a victory at Dallas, which would also put the Eagles in the playoffs as NFC East champs.

Angling for the NFC West crown and a leg up in the conference race for home field, the Rams (11-3) clinched a playoff spot last week. But if Los Angeles loses at Seattle (11-3) on Thursday night, the Rams can still end up on the road for the wild-card playoffs. San Francisco (10-4), very much alive in the division race, closes Week 16 at Indianapolis (8-6) with a clear picture of what’s at stake in the grand landscape of the postseason. A Lions’ loss on Sunday punches the 49ers’ ticket to the playoffs. If Detroit wins, the 49ers can still clinch by beating the Colts on “Monday Night Football.”

Philadelphia can clinch the division with a win at any point in the final three weeks, starting Sunday against the Washington Commanders (4-10). The Eagles play the Commanders again on Jan. 4.

The Bears (10-4) and Packers (9-4-1) have their own clinching scenarios predicated on the Lions losing on Sunday. But first the NFC North rivals play in primetime Saturday night in Chicago, where the winner would be sitting pretty. A Packers win gives Green Bay a season sweep of the Bears while dealing Chicago a fifth loss. Beating the Packers pushes the Bears a game and a half up in the win column in the division with two to play.

It’s shakeout week in the NFC South, too. The Panthers (7-7) draw the Buccaneers (7-7) in Charlotte with the division lead on the line.

Here’s the full playoff picture entering Week 16 and the clinching scenarios in play beginning Thursday night:

AFC
–Division Leaders
1. Denver Broncos
AFC West
12-2 overall
7-2 vs. AFC
Up Next: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday)

Clinched playoff berth last week

Broncos clinch AFC West division title and the AFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with:

DEN win + LAC loss or tie + NE loss + BUF loss or tie

Denver clinches AFC West division title with:

DEN win + LAC loss or tie OR
DEN tie + LAC loss

2. New England Patriots
AFC East
11-3 overall
6-3 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday night)

Patriots clinch playoff berth with:

NE win or tie OR
IND loss or tie OR
HOU loss or tie

3. Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC South
10-4 overall
7-2 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Denver Broncos (Sunday)

Jaguars clinch playoff berth with:

JAX win + IND loss or tie OR
JAX win + HOU loss or tie OR
JAX tie + IND loss OR
JAX tie + IND tie + HOU loss

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC North
8-6 overall
7-3 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Detroit Lions (Sunday)

–Wild-card leaders

5. Los Angeles Chargers
10-4 overall
8-2 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday)

Chargers clinch playoff berth with:

LAC win + IND loss or tie OR
LAC win + HOU loss or tie OR
LAC tie + IND loss OR
LAC tie + IND tie + HOU loss

6. Buffalo Bills
10-4 overall
7-3 vs. AFC
Up Next: at Cleveland Browns (Sunday)

Bills clinch playoff berth with:

BUF win + IND loss or tie OR
BUF win + HOU loss or tie OR
BUF tie + IND loss OR
BUF tie + HOU loss

7. Houston Texans
9-5 overall
7-2 vs. AFC
Up Next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday)

–In The Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts
8-6 overall
6-4 vs. AFC
Up Next: vs. San Francisco 49ers (Monday)

9. Baltimore Ravens
7-7 overall
5-5 vs. AFC
Up Next: vs. New England Patriots (Sunday night)

NFC
–Division Leaders
1. Los Angeles Rams
NFC West
11-3 overall
6-3 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday)

Clinched NFC playoff berth last week.

2. Chicago Bears
NFC North
10-4 overall
6-3 vs. NFC
Up Next: vs. Green Bay Packers (Saturday)

Bears clinch playoff berth with:

CHI win + DET loss or tie OR
CHI tie + DET loss

3. Philadelphia Eagles
NFC East
9-5 overall
7-3 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Washington Commanders (Saturday)

Eagles clinch NFC East division title and playoff berth with:

PHI win OR
DAL loss OR
PHI tie + DAL tie

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC South
7-7 overall
5-5 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Carolina Panthers (Sunday)

–Wild-card leaders
5. Seattle Seahawks
11-3 overall
6-3 vs. NFC
Up Next: vs. Los Angeles Rams (Thursday)

Seahawks clinch playoff berth with:

SEA win or tie OR
DET loss or tie

6. San Francisco 49ers
10-4 overall
8-2 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Indianapolis Colts (Monday)

49ers clinch playoff berth with:

SF win OR
DET loss OR
SF tie + DET tie

7. Green Bay Packers
9-4-1 overall
7-2-1 vs. NFC
Up Next: at Chicago Bears (Saturday)

Packers clinch playoff berth with:

GB win + DET loss or tie OR
GB tie + DET loss

–In The Hunt
8. Detroit Lions
8-6 overall
5-5 vs. NFC
Up Next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday)

9. Carolina Panthers
7-7 overall
5-4 vs. NFC
vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday)

10. Dallas Cowboys
6-7-1 overall
3-6-1 vs. NFC
vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday)

–Field Level Media

Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs the ball against the Minnesota Vikings during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Top 10 Player Props For NFL Week 16

Posted on | by Field Level Media

With 12 games on the schedule for Sunday featuring many of the NFL’s best teams, fans will have hundreds of player props to choose from for their betting pleasure in Week 16.

Rather than take hours of your day to research and figure out which are the best, see if any of our top ten picks inspire you. (These will be in no specific order. Odds are from FanDuel unless otherwise indicated.)

Eagles vs. Commanders

–Jalen Hurts, O/U 191.5 Passing Yards at -113/-113
–Hurts to throw for 200+ yards at +108

Hurts is averaging right around 200 yards per game this season. While he had 290 his last time out against a good Steelers defense, he had less than 180 in his previous three. His numbers against the Steelers have to be taken with a grain of salt since Saquon Barkley missed time with an injury.

Washington controlled the game for three quarters a few weeks ago in Philly, only to lose after Barkley and the Eagles dominated the fourth quarter. I don’t see the passing game working as well as it did last time, but I doubt it will struggle as it did vs. Carolina, Baltimore and the Rams.

The Washington pass defense has held teams to less than 190 yards per game this season, but 209 ypg over the last three. Hurts will probably have a day similar to the one he had in the previous game vs. Washington (18-28 for 221 yards).

Take the OVER on his passing yards.

Giants vs. Falcons

–Michael Penix Jr., O/U 228.5 Passing Yards at -115/-115 (via DraftKings)

The Falcons will want to see their young quarterback spread his wings, but they’ll also want to protect him as much as they can. To that end, they’ll lean hard on the run in this game to draw the Giants’ defense in and then pass when his receivers are in single coverage.

They will not need to throw much against this Giants team and will probably let Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier carry most of the load.

Take the UNDER.

–Tyler Allgeier, O/U 36.5 Rushing Yards at -110/-110 (via bet365)
–Allgeier to rush for 50+ yards +165 (via BetMGM)

The Falcons may let Penix air it out in the first quarter but will otherwise have him throw just enough to keep the Giants’ defense honest. Robinson, of course, will carry the bulk of the load. But Allgeier will see the ball more than he usually does.

He had fewer than 10 carries in 10 of 14 games; look for him to get closer to 15 Sunday. With the Giants’ defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry, Allgeier should easily go over this total.

Take the OVER.

Lions vs. Bears

–Sam LaPorta, O/U 41.5 Receiving Yards at -115/-115 (via BetMGM)

Losing David Montgomery for the immediate future stings, but the Lions do still have Jahmyr Gibbs. But they’ll likely try to find other ways to move the ball to keep from overworking Gibbs. LaPorta has had a quiet season but has seen his target share go up in the last two weeks.

Big, pass-catching tight ends like LaPorta are great for moving the chains, and the Lions will probably use LaPorta more in that capacity going forward.

Take the OVER.

Browns vs. Bengals

–Chase Brown, O/U 74.5 Rushing Yards at -110/-110 (via bet365)
–Brown, O/U 17.5 Rushing Attempts at -130/+100 (via DraftKings)

Cincinnati has been all over the place with Brown’s touches this season. He had 25 last week vs. Tennessee but 12 to 14 in three of the previous four games. But teams have averaged 32 rushing attempts and 119.3 yards against the Browns in the last three weeks.

With the Browns starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, the Bengals will probably want to run a little more often to keep the clock moving. It will be the Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase show in the first half, but Brown will take over in the second.

Take the OVER for both.

–Jerry Jeudy, O/U 62.5 Receiving Yards at -110/-110 (via bet365)
–Jeudy, O/U 5.5 Receptions at +125/-165

Jeudy has gone over this yardage total in his last seven games, but bettors may want to mute expectations with Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. While DTR is a tremendous athlete, he struggles to connect with his receivers. He has completed just 44.1 percent of his passes this season (15-for-34) and 51.4 percent in his career (75-for-146).

As for his receptions total, Jeudy is one of Cleveland’s better playmakers. They’ll eventually settle for short throws to the flats that DTR can complete just to get the ball in Jeudy’s hands. Since those throws will be relatively easy to complete, Jeudy will see the ball enough to go over this total.

Take the UNDER for his yardage but the OVER for his receptions.

–Field Level Media

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) is forced out of bounds by Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Germaine Pratt (57) in the second quarter of the NFL Week 8 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024.

Week 16 NFL Capsules

Posted on | by Field Level Media

Saturday
Houston Texans (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1), 1 p.m. ET, NBC
After the Texans clinched the AFC South division title for the second consecutive season last week, they can breathe a little easier about the rough road ahead. It’s the same schedule the Chiefs are on with a Saturday game before playing again Wednesday in the NFL’s Christmas Day spotlight games. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) was hobbled and Carson Wentz finished the 21-7 win at Cleveland last week, but he’ll answer the bell for Kansas City on Saturday. There’s some concern about the health and performance of the offensive line safeguarding Mahomes after he was hit 12 times last week. The Texans boast the only tandem of defenders with 10-plus sacks – Danielle Hunter with 12 and Will Anderson Jr. at 10.5 – and Houston’s secondary has playmaking chops starting with CB Derek Stingley Jr. With the AFC West title in hand plus a two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills in the race for the top seed in the conference, the Chiefs still are playing for something: a win couple with a Buffalo tie or loss vs. New England gives Kansas City a first-round playoff bye and homefield through the conference title game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5), 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX
The Steelers clinched a playoff berth for the fourth time in the past five seasons but Saturday’s game will go a long way toward determining the AFC North champion, which will get a home game in the playoffs. The Ravens are coming off a 35-14 beatdown of the Giants, their league-leading sixth game with at least 35 points. There are some sweaty palms in Baltimore over the recent accuracy issues of PK Justin Tucker, who went 1-for-3 in the 18-16 loss at Pittsburgh last month. Two weeks later in a home loss against the Eagles (24-19), Tucker missed an extra point and two more FG attempts. QB Lamar Jackson has done his part, but still is searching for answers against the Steelers. He had his worst game of the season – 16 of 33, 207 yards, TD, INT – at Pittsburgh in a year he had otherwise dominated at every turn. He has nine games with two-plus TD passes and zero interceptions, a streak only Tom Brady (11, 2010) and Aaron Rodgers (three times) have pushed to 10 games in a single season. Pittsburgh is 5-2 all-time against Jackson, who has five TDs and eight INTs against the Steelers, forcing him to contend with edge pressure from T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.

Sunday
Detroit Lions (12-2) at Chicago Bears (4-10), 1 p.m. ET, FOX
The last undefeated team on the road this season, the Lions are 6-0 and driven to prove injuries and last week’s loss won’t derail their season. Having the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (32.8 points per game) helps their cause. The Lions have work to do with the Eagles riding a 10-game winning streak and the Vikings also tied with Detroit for the NFC’s best record. Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown is 0-2 since he replaced Matt Eberflus one day after Chicago’s bungled clock management in the final minute of a 23-20 loss at Detroit. Chicago returns home trying again to end a losing streak that stands at eight games. Brown says the Bears are still fighting. Lopsided losses at San Francisco, 38-13, and Minnesota, 30-12, aren’t helping Brown’s case. Chicago has been outscored 53-0 in the first half of its past three contests.

Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) at Washington Commanders (9-5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Ground-and-pound Philly went to the air last week to hush concerns over the working relationship between QB Jalen Hurts and WR A.J. Brown. But the recipe for success this season for the Eagles has been an unstoppable ground game. With a single-season franchise-record 10 consecutive wins, the Eagles streak into Washington behind Hurts and NFL leading rusher Saquon Barkley. Barkley leads the NFL with a franchise-record 1,688 rushing yards and 1,964 total yards. He also owns Washington, averaging 136.2 yards per scrimmage against the franchise dating to his days with the Giants. But Barkley destroyed the Commanders in the first meeting this season, racking up 198 total yards and two rushing TDs. He has 1,362 total yards and 10 touchdowns (six rushing, four receiving) in 10 career games against Washington. The Commanders are in playoff position with three games to go. A loss to the Eagles would set up a critical matchup with the Falcons (7-7) next week. Washington’s Jayden Daniels is the fourth rookie quarterback in league history with at least 3,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards.

Arizona Cardinals (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (3-11), 1 p.m. ET, FOX
The Cardinals are flirting with NFC playoff position after halting a three-game losing streak with a 30-17 victory over the visiting New England Patriots last weekend. But the margin is thin in an overcrowded wildcard race. The Panthers have lost four games in a row entering the home finale and closer to the top of the 2025 draft than the playoffs. There are signs of life from the Panthers despite growing pains. Carolina lost tight games to divisional leaders Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia before dropping a 30-14 decision to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday. Running backs are critical to the success of both teams. Cardinals RB James Conner has rushed for a team-high 973 rushing yards and had 110 yards to beat New England for his second-highest total of the season and his fifth 100-yard game this season. Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark earlier this month, but he was held to the second-lowest total of the season with 32 yards on the ground last week.

New York Giants (2-12) at Atlanta Falcons (7-7), 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Quarterback changes are commonplace for the Giants this season and New York turns to Drew Lock for his third start in 2024 after Tim Boyle and Tommy DeVito split the chores in Week 15. There’s no split in Atlanta where rookie Michael Penix Jr. is ticketed for his debut. The Falcons made the move knowing time is short to find the passing lane with the playoffs still within reach but their offense skidding and erratic behind Kirk Cousins. Penix was a Heisman Trophy finalist and took Washington to the national championship game last season. The 24-year-old receives high marks from teammates for maturity and accuracy. But this week’s practices represented his first extended work with top targets, pointing to a plan of pounding Bijan Robinson and Tyson Allgeier against New York’s injury-riddled defense. The Giants are allowing 4.9 yards per carry and the Ravens gained 170 rushing yards last week.

Cleveland Browns (3-11) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-8), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Joe Burrow might be on the road to the greatest 9-8 – perhaps worse – season in league history and his top target is right there with him. Ja’Marr Chase, 43 yards shy of the franchise mark for single-season receiving yards, leads the NFL with 102 receptions, 1,413 receiving yards and 15 touchdown receptions and can become the third player in NFL history with at least 100 catches, 1,500 yards and 15 TD receptions in his first 15 games in a season, joining Pro Football Hall of Famers Randy Moss (2003) and Jerry Rice (1995). Burrow had two TD passes in the Week 7 matchup with the Browns. He leads the NFL with 3,977 pass yards and 36 TD passes. Cleveland is turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. He makes his fourth career start with Jameis Winston benched and RB Nick Chubb (knee) placed on IR this week. WR Jerry Jeudy has been the best playmaker on the Browns’ roster since the last game against Cincinnati, ranking second in the NFL with 786 receiving yards since Week 8.

Tennessee Titans (3-11) at Indianapolis Colts (6-8), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Anthony Richardson survived the QB yoyo earlier in the season but the Titans still are trying to find the right fit behind center entering Week 16. Mason Rudolph was named the starter following another turnover-filled showing by Will Levis. Levis tossed three interceptions and coughed up a fumble in 2 1/2 quarters, getting the hook after giving up a pick-six that helped sink the Titans to a 3-11 mark. If the Titans don’t win this game and stack a few more losses, they should be in position to look for a new face of the franchise at QB should first-year coach Brian Callahan decide to start over. Turnovers hurt the Colts last week in a loss at Denver that erased playoff aspirations. Richardson has three consecutive home starts without an INT. Richardson has made just 14 NFL starts due to injuries that cost him most of last year, is completing only 47 percent of his passes for 1,683 yards with seven touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2024.

Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at New York Jets (4-10), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Rams rookie DE Kobie Turner and LB Jared Verse are helping turn the Los Angeles defensive into a surging strength. Turner had 2.0 sacks last week and Verse leads all rookies with 11 tackles for loss. Resurgent QB Aaron Rodgers and the Jets know all too well that protection has been a pain point. Rodgers and WR Davante Adams are fully reconnected. Adams had nine catches for 198 yards and two TDs in Week 15 and the Rams have allowed 23 TD passes. Rodgers gets another matchup with former division rival Matthew Stafford. Stafford was with the Lions and in the NFC North during most of Rodgers’ run with the Packers. His targets are big-play threats, too. Cooper Kupp was held without a reception last Thursday at San Francisco but Puka Nacua had seven grabs. If he gets 100 receiving yards Sunday, Nacua would join Justin Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. as the only players with 12 games of 100-plus receiving yards in their first two seasons.

New England Patriots (3-11) at Buffalo Bills (11-3), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Josh Allen appears to be on a one-way path to his first NFL MVP award, long removed from offseason worries the Bills would take a step back without a defined No. 1 receiver. By beating the Lions 48-42 last week, Buffalo became the fifth team to score 30 points in eight consecutive games in a single season and first since the 2013 Denver Broncos. Allen has 36 combined passing and rushing touchdowns (25 passing, 11 rushing) and can join Aaron Rodgers (six seasons) as the only players in NFL history with five career seasons with at least 40 combined passing and rushing touchdowns. All of those accomplishments are window dressing to Buffalo’s search for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which requires two wins over the Patriots in the next three weeks and a little luck given Kansas City’s 13-1 record. Sunday marks the first game for Patriots QB Drake Maye in the AFC East rivalry. A win Sunday would be No. 75 in the regular season for Allen, tying Russell Wilson for the most in league history for a quarterback through his first seven seasons.

Minnesota Vikings (12-2) at Seattle Seahawks (8-6), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX
A seven-game winning streak is the tailwind for the Vikings as they touch down in Seattle, but neither team is locked into playoff positioning. Minnesota clinched a postseason bid but shares the NFC’s best record with the Eagles and Lions. If the Vikings can survive the Seahawks, Packers and Lions unscathed and finish 15-2, they’ll have the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson would become the third player in league history to start his career with five consecutive 1,300-yard seasons with just 57 yards in the next three weeks. The Seahawks are back in chase mode. Seattle had a four-game winning streak snapped by the Packers in Week 15 and coughed up the NFC West lead last week. The Seahawks fell behind the Rams (8-6) but can set up a meaningful Week 18 date with Los Angeles. Geno Smith (knee) is pushing through an injury and leading rusher Kenneth Walker III (calf) is expected to play after missing the past two games.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-12), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said the franchise is measuring effort and intensity in the final games of the 2024 season to determine which players are worth keeping around. Backup-turn-QB1 Mac Jones set season highs had 294 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, 31 completions and two TD passes last week. Leaning on rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr., who had 10-105-2 last week, Jones has found a rhythm the offense lacked in previous weeks. Not much has gone according to plan for either team and the Raiders are starting a third different quarterback in four games with former Jaguars starter Gardner Minshew out for the season and Desmond Ridder back to the bench with Aidan O’Connell returning from a knee bruise. The Raiders are down top talent elsewhere, too, placing DE Maxx Crosby on IR this week. Las Vegas is leaning into its own first-round receiver, TE Brock Bowers, to put up points. Bowers is tied for fourth in NFL with 90 catches and ranked No. 8 in the league with 968 receiving yards.

San Francisco 49ers (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (6-8), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Brock Purdy doesn’t seem to mind hitting the road and has 23 touchdowns and two interceptions in his past 10 starts away from home. The 49ers beat Miami in 2022 in Purdy’s first career start on a run to the NFC Championship game but fortunes are down on both sides of this matchup. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa looks to rebound from a rough outing against the Texans last week. He leads the NFL in completion percentage at 75.6 and is second in the NFL with 2,169 passing yards since Week 8. Injuries are a running theme for both teams. San Francisco likely is to be down to its fourth starting running back with rookie Isaac Guerendo out, leaving Patrick Taylor and Isreal Abanikanda to fill the role. Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is dealing with multiple ailments but is expected to play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) at Dallas Cowboys (6-8), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Armed with a four-game winning streak and desperate to hold a one-game lead in the NFC South over the Atlanta Falcons, the Buccaneers enter playoff mode early. Dallas has three wins in the past four games, but the Cowboys are three games behind Washington. The Commanders (9-5) hold the final wild-card spot in the NFC entering Week 16 and the Cowboys are given a 1 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs by NFL.com playoff predictor. Their last two wins came against teams long eliminated from the playoff picture, Carolina (3-11) and the New York Giants (2-12). Tampa Bay’s voluminous offense looms as troubling for a Dallas defense that has allowed 380 points to carry a worrisome minus-82 point differential. The Buccaneers lead the NFL with eight games of 400-plus total yards and four games with both 300-plus yards passing and more than 100 rushing. The Los Angeles Chargers were the NFL’s best scoring defense before the Bucs arrived last week and delivered a 40-17 thrashing led by QB Baker Mayfield tossing four TDs to add to his career-high 32.

–Field Level Media

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) celebrates a sack of Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (not pictured) in the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Week 16 betting primer: Desperate Dallas defies road narrative

Posted on | by Field Level Media

GAME OF THE WEEK

After a rough Week 15 in which the Jets returned to their offensive ineptitude and cost us our juicy three-leg parlay, we’ll forge a couple of more conventional plays.

Two trends to fight have emerged: The Lions’ split personalities and the Cowboys’ inability to beat a good team.

See how the primary play developed, along with a bonus play and a player prop below.

THE HEADLINER

Lions at Vikings, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Lions -3, total 47 (DraftKings).

Detroit’s home-road splits are enlightening – beware of the Lions away from home.

The feeling is that the bookmakers have over-adjusted for this divisional battle against the Vikings, and Lions QB Jared Goff can successfully imagine that this covered stadium bears a strong resemblance to his cozy home field.

Detroit’s most recent road game resulted in a 28-13 loss to Chicago Dec. 10, but, in keeping with home-road tradition, the Lions rolled to a 42-17 rout of the Denver Broncos last Saturday night in which Goff tied his career high with five touchdown passes.

Back on the road again, the increased productivity of receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and the continued emergence of go-to target Sam LaPorta – a rookie tight end – should mean more options for Goff and another big offensive day.

A field goal is too small a margin for a team ready to clinch its first division title since Rodney Peete, Andre Ware and Erik Kramer were the starting quarterbacks (1993!).

Against the Broncos, St. Brown caught seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown and LaPorta caught three of Goff’s touchdown passes.

As an explosive complement to the passing game, rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and veteran David Montgomery combined for 185 rushing yards and a touchdown.

This bet hinges on Goff’s ability to feel at home in Minnesota.

“The most important thing is to cut it loose. That’s the message,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “It’s not the other way because I go back to this: He’s one of the biggest reasons we’re sitting at 10 wins right now, him playing loose.

“Just trust what your eyes see, play the progression and throw with conviction.”

It’s easier said than done, this “trust” thing with Goff, but we’ll take a shot and hope he’s better than Minnesota starting QB Nick Mullens.

The bet: Lions -3.

THEY SAID IT

“We control our own destiny as it pertains to winning the division, no matter what happens (elsewhere). We win (Sunday) and we win the division. We’re in (the playoffs) and we get a home game. That’s right where I want to be.”

– Lions coach Dan Campbell.

BONUS PLAY

Cowboys at Dolphins, 4:25 p.m. ET

The line: Dolphins -1, total 50 (DraftKings).

Here’s another selection that we’re tying to a team’s mental abilities.

Can Dallas muster the urgency and execution to win a very, very important game on the road?

The Cowboys (10-4) are perfect in seven home games. But when they leave Dallas …

Quarterback Dak Prescott is perplexed by the difference in play.

“Obviously, we’d love to come out and produce like we do at home but that just hasn’t been the case,” he said.

“So we’ve got to find out what those answers are and try to close that gap and we can’t be those two different other teams.”

We hear you, Dak.

This bet boils down to the Cowboys needing this win more.

A loss in Miami likely means a road playoff game at the NFC South winner for the Cowboys. If Dallas wins that game, a visit to San Francisco to meet the 49ers awaits.

That’s no recipe for a Super Bowl.

Miami can still grab the AFC East title, even with a loss to the Cowboys, so we are going to side with the more desperate team.

The play: Cowboys +1.

PROP CORNER

This is a prediction predicated on that Dallas desperation.

The defense will have its intensity ramped up and should be aiming to chase down Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If that’s successful, there should be pressure-induced dump-offs in addition to the designed screen passes to the running backs.

The Dolphins employ Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. Achane has been trending the right way (11 receptions over the past three games, during which he’s reached at least 24 receiving yards in each of those games) and is back healthy.

That trend, plus the likely Dallas game plan, leads us to an Achane “over” bet.

Prop play: Miami running back Devon Achane over 24.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel).

–Field Level Media

Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor paces the sideline in the second quarter of the NFL Week 12 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023.

Week 16 NFL Capsules (Saturday games)

Posted on | by Field Level Media

–Saturday games

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7): Playoff football arrives early for AFC North rivals who’ve undergone major facelifts since Pittsburgh’s 16-10 win over the Bengals in Cincinnati on Nov. 26. The Steelers have lost three straight, temporarily remain without starting quarterback Kenny Pickett, benched his backup Mitch Trubisky, lost starting safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to a knee injury and their other starting safety — Damontae Kazee — was suspended. Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning was making his first NFL start in that first meeting and generated just 222 yards of total offense, but Browning and the Bengals are back on their feet. They enter Week 16 with three straight wins, including a pair of overtime victories, and currently sit ahead of Pittsburgh and in playoff position in the packed AFC postseason picture. Browning has completed 76 percent of his passes since Week 12 and thrown for more than 1,000 yards in his first four NFL starts — the only NFL quarterback to do so since 1950. Steelers QB Mason Rudolph took over for Trubisky in last week’s loss to the Colts and will make his first start since 2021. The Steelers left the door “ajar” for Pickett if could return from ankle surgery to play, but he was officially ruled out on Thursday. While playoff probability metrics reveal odds of 64 percent to make the playoffs with a win this week, it’s not all roses and balloons for the Bengals, either. Cincinnati is without WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder).

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9): The Bills are desperate in their hunt for a playoff spot as one of five teams in the AFC with an 8-6 record, currently outside of the seven playoff spots in the conference and two games behind the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East. “Every game from here on out’s a playoff game for us,” Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen said. “That’s the mentality that we have. It’s essentially win or go home. We’ve got to be prepared for every punch the Chargers can throw at us.” The Bills have won consecutive games and coach Sean McDermott has cautioned his team all week about what can happen if preparation isn’t taken seriously. All is not well in L.A. The Chargers were loaded with bitter faces when they were annihilated 63-21 by the Las Vegas Raiders on Dec. 14. It was such a poor performance that the club fired coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco. The Chargers have dropped five of their past six games, and their fortunes are low with star quarterback Justin Herbert done for the season after finger surgery on his throwing hand. Los Angeles will be without star receiver Keenan Allen (heel) for the second straight game. He didn’t practice all week and was ruled out Thursday. Allen has a league-high 108 receptions while accumulating 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns.

–Field Level Media

Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) celebrates after the game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Week 16 playoff scenarios: 49ers can clinch top seed, bye

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The San Francisco 49ers’ Christmas gift could be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The 49ers, the only 11-3 team in the NFC, have a straightforward path to clinching the top seed and a first-round bye in Week 16, according to the NFL’s official playoff scenarios.

If the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles all lose, the 49ers would lock up the No. 1 seed on Christmas night by beating the visiting Baltimore Ravens — who happen to be the only other 11-3 team in the league.

Detroit visits the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas takes on the host Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Christmas Eve. Then, the Eagles play the middle game of a Christmas Day tripleheader against the visiting New York Giants before the Ravens visit San Francisco in the nightcap.

The Lions (10-4) would clinch the NFC North title with a win or tie against Minnesota. If that doesn’t happen, they can still lock up a playoff bid if either the Los Angeles Rams or the Seattle Seahawks lose or tie. The Rams host the New Orleans Saints on Thursday and the Seahawks visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.

Over in the AFC, the Ravens — who have already punched their postseason ticket — can win the AFC North by beating the 49ers and having the Browns lose or tie against the Houston Texans, or if the Ravens tie and the Browns lose.

The Browns (9-5), for their part, have eight scenarios to clinch a playoff berth this week, all of which start with a win at Houston. The Browns are on the verge of their second playoff berth in 21 seasons.

If the Dolphins (10-4) beat the Cowboys and the Buffalo Bills lose or tie at the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday, Miami would clinch the AFC East title. That would also be the result if Miami ties Dallas and Buffalo loses.

The Christmas Day tripleheader begins with the struggling Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs (9-5) can lock up their eighth straight AFC West title if they beat Las Vegas, or if they tie with the Raiders and the Denver Broncos lose to New England.

–Field Level Media