Tag: Week 5

Sep 30, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins punter Jake Bailey (16) punts against the Tennessee Titans during the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

NFL Week 5: How low can Patriots-Dolphins go?

Posted on | by Field Level Media

If sportsbooks offer the option to bet on punts over points in Week 5, action would be hot and heavy in a pair of NFL games where touchdowns are far from expected.

AFC East rivals huddle in Foxborough, Mass., on Sunday with the Dolphins (1-3) and Patriots (1-3) drawing heavy action betting the under, which is set at 35.5. If that number sounds preposterously low, it’s because 35.5 is tied for the lowest total this season with another Week 5 game, Raiders at Broncos.

After the Dolphins finished second in the NFL in scoring at 29.2 per game last season, not many expected Miami’s scoring machine to be muted to this extent.

But it’s possible Miami will utilize a third starting quarterback in five games with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), Skylar Thompson (ribs) and Tyler Huntley (96 passing yards Monday vs. Tennessee) not looking like the right answer for head coach Mike McDaniel.

Miami is the NFL’s only team with an 0-4 record against the spread.

As of Wednesday morning, BetMGM counted 75 percent of bets and 82 percent of money on the under (35.5) in Patriots-Dolphins. There’s more action on the over in Raiders-Broncos.

Taking the over on the Dolphins is 1-3 this season, missing by an average of 7.6 points. Miami’s once high-octane offense has four touchdowns in four games and ranks 32nd in the NFL in scoring.

New England is No. 31 — 52 total points to Miami’s 45 — and also has four total TDs in four games.

Miami snapped a streak of 10 quarters without a touchdown on Huntley’s TD run in the fourth quarter on Monday.

The Patriots have one touchdown in the past eight quarters, losses to the 49ers and Jets, in which New England had 16 total points.

In what sets up as a rock fight on Sunday, the names to know aren’t Jacoby Brissett and Huntley. But Bryce Baringer and Jake Bailey.

Baringer has punted 20 times for the Patriots and averages 51.7 yards per attempt. Bailey is at 47.6 yards per punt with only one trickling into the end zone. Baringer has 13 downed inside the 20 and at least three in all four games this season, assuring the Dolphins a long field to work with on multiple possessions.

Barring a big surprise, Sunday sets up as punter appreciation day and prime viewing for under plays.

–Field Level Media

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrates with wide receiver Robert Woods (2) and wide receiver Tank Dell (3) after a touchdown during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5: Texans WR Tank Dell and other player props to consider

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Bye weeks arrive in the NFL this week with the Browns, Chargers, Seahawks and Buccaneers out of the action in Week 5.

Even with an abridged slate of games, you can find ample value on the board using a consistent approach to select player props.

These props can be viewed as a derivative of how they expect a game to unfold, and it’s important to note that we can rely a bit more on the data after four weeks of games.

With that strategy in mind, here are our top five player props in Week 5:

–Bills QB Josh Allen under 5.5 rushing attempts (+112 at FanDuel)
There’s no question the Bills’ running game is even more potent with Allen as a threat. Last season, the Bills ranked 17th in rushing attempts (26.4), but this year they rank seventh with 29.8 per game.

And while the Bills are calling more running plays, we’re seeing them utilize their running backs much more than in recent memory. James Cook, Damien Harris and Latavius Murray are all averaging at least 4.2 yards per carry.

Through four games, the most rushing attempts for Allen was six, which was in Week 1 against the Jets. He had at least eight rushing attempts in three of his first four games last season.

Given how the Bills put this roster together, it wouldn’t surprise me if they are trying to lessen the burden of Allen having to make plays with his legs to win ballgames.

It’s worth noting that the addition of rookie Dalton Kincaid at the tight end position gives Allen another weapon in short-yardage situations.

–Cardinals RB James Conner under 13.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
The key to this prop is the number of targets Conner is getting out of the backfield. He’s had the same number of targets over the past three games (five) as in Week 1.

There’s still some talent on this Cardinals’ roster, even with starting quarterback Kyler Murray sidelined while recovering from an ACL injury.

Marquise Brown leads the receiving corps with 239 yards on 21 receptions, but Stanford rookie Michael Wilson has 237 yards on 14 catches.

Joshua Dobbs has done a decent job leading this offense. Murray didn’t always complete his passing-game progressions and looked to dump the ball out to Conner under their former head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

Jonathan Gannon replaced Kingsbury, and he came from an Eagles team that’s not known for their running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. Thus, it shouldn’t be surprising that Conner’s targets are significantly down this season compared to last year.

Things won’t get any easier against a Bengals defense that’s one of nine teams to keep running backs under 100 receiving yards through four games this season.

–Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs over 21.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
We’ll stay with the Bengals-Cardinals game because I think there’s some implied correlation here with Conner’s receiving prop staying under and Dobbs going over his rushing yards.

He moves more like a running back and Dobbs isn’t hiding from contact if he has to tuck the ball and run. As a result, his first instinct might be to run the ball instead of dumping it off to Conner if he feels pressure.

In each of his past three games, Dobbs rushed for at least 40 yards. He’ll be up against a Bengals defense that’s allowed the fourth most rushing yards (117) to opposing quarterbacks this season.

I like Dobbs to go over this rushing prop with plenty of room to spare.

–Texans WR Tank Dell over 41.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

The Texans look like they struck gold with quarterback C.J. Stroud, and they’re also getting production out of Dell, a third-round pick in 2023. Through four games, Dell has 267 receiving yards on 16 catches while scoring two touchdowns.

However, the Houston product had just one catch on three targets for 16 yards last week. The Texans did manage to win the game in blowout fashion against the Steelers 30-6.

Nonetheless, Dell probably would still be disappointed to have just one reception in the game, as I’ve got a feeling he’s been in Stroud’s ear all week to get him the ball.

Week 1 was the last time Dell had fewer than five targets or receptions, and in his next game, he finished with 72 yards on 10 targets and seven catches.
If you look at Dell’s median for receiving yards, he’s at 53, which gives us some value here, with the over currently at 41.5.

–Dalton Schultz under 27.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Let’s hope that an increase in production for Dell results in a decrease for Schultz. The Texans’ tight end is coming off his best game of the season, with three catches for 42 yards and a touchdown.

However, he’s yet to put together back-to-back quality performances. Thus, this feels like the perfect time to fade Schultz when he’s coming off a decent game.

After just four receiving yards in the season opener, Schultz finished with 34 in Week 2. But he managed just nine receiving yards on three targets the following week.

The Texans have three receivers with at least 190 yards. By comparison, the Falcons don’t have any with more than 126 yards through four games. Stroud will need to keep his receivers happy, and I think it’ll come at the expense of Schultz in Week 5.

–By Michael Nwaneri, Field Level Media

Oct 1, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5 NFL Capsules

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NFL Week 5 capsules

Bills (3-1) vs. Jaguars (2-2), in London: The Jaguars will become the first NFL team to play two consecutive games overseas; they are the designated away team after beating the Atlanta Falcons 23-7 last week in their home away from home. It’s Buffalo’s second-ever trip overseas after it lost to Jacksonville 34-31 in London in 2015. The Bills have won three straight and rank second in the league at 34.8 points per game. Their veteran edge rusher, Von Miller, has indicated he expects to be activated from the physically unable to perform list to make his season debut. A Jaguars-Bills game also offers the rare opportunity for Josh Allen to sack Josh Allen: The Jacksonville linebacker by that name already has six sacks this season, tied with Khalil Mack and T.J. Watt for the league lead.

Falcons (2-2) vs. Texans (2-2): Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has not thrown an interception in his first 151 career pass attempts, an NFL rookie record. He combined with an improving Houston defense to help the Texans outscore Jacksonville and Pittsburgh 67-23 during a two-game winning streak. The Falcons have lost two straight games and scored six and seven points, respectively. Dynamic rookie tailback Bijan Robinson has been sensational as a rusher (318 rushing yards) and receiver (19 receptions for 134 yards and a score) in the Falcons’ offense, but he has yet to score a TD on the ground. Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder hasn’t gotten help from his offensive line, as he’s been sacked 11 times over the past two games. For the Texans, linebacker Henry To’oTo’o leads all rookies with 27 tackles this season.

Lions (3-1) vs. Panthers (0-4): While rookie quarterback Bryce Young hasn’t been able to lead Carolina to a victory yet, he has completed at least 20 passes in each of the first three games of his career. Adam Thielen has emerged as the Panthers’ top target and will be looking to bring in at least seven receptions for the fourth straight game. Meanwhile, the NFC North appears to be Detroit’s to lose, and now Jared Goff gets to face a Carolina team that he threw for 355 yards and three TDs against last season. David Montgomery rushed for a career-high three scores last week, but his emergence as RB1 has taken away opportunities from rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, who is averaging 9.8 carries per game. Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson attempts to record at least 1.5 sacks for the third consecutive game, while LB Alex Anzalone has at least five tackles in 21 straight contests, the fourth-longest active streak in the league.

Colts (2-2) vs. Titans (2-2): Indianapolis should get a boost with the return of star running back Jonathan Taylor, who will be up against a firm Titans front that has surrendered only 70 yards per game on the ground. At the very least, Taylor should take some pressure off rookie signal-caller Anthony Richardson. Richardson has four rushing TDs and has the chance to become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to score on the ground in each of the first four games of a season. Speaking of the run game, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry went for over 100 yards rushing for the first time this season last week. However, the Titans need to open up the airways, as high-end offseason acquisition DeAndre Hopkins has yet to top 65 yards in a game. Tennessee owns a five-game winning streak against the Colts dating back to Nov. 29, 2020.

Dolphins (3-1) vs. Giants (1-3): Whether New York has standout running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) available might not matter, as this game has potential blowout written all over it. Even if Barkley does suit up, he might end up being pushed out of the spotlight by Miami’s De’Von Achane, who has scored six total touchdowns over the past two weeks. Since 1970, only three other rookies have found the end zone six times in a two-game stretch — Doug Martin (2012), Mike Anderson (2000) and Randy Moss (1998). Through four weeks, the Giants have the worst point differential in the NFL (minus-76) while Miami has the sixth-best at plus-31. New York quarterback Daniel Jones has already been sacked 22 times this season as he heads to Hard Rock Stadium, where Miami is 13-2 over its past 15 games. The Dolphins are averaging a whopping 511 yards of total offense per game. Meanwhile, the Giants have eclipsed the 250-yard mark just once.

Patriots (1-3) vs. Saints (2-2): The sky is seemingly falling in New England. The Patriots’ feeble offense is averaging just 13.8 points per game, third-fewest in the league. Bill Belichick is coming off the worst loss of his head-coaching career — a 38-3 setback against Dallas — and Mac Jones is hitting on just 63.7 percent of his passes with five touchdowns to four interceptions. Things won’t get any easier against a New Orleans defense that has held three of four opponents under 20 points. The Saints’ offense is also trending in the right direction, with star running back Alvin Kamara looking to build off a season debut in which he went for 84 yards (51 rushing, 33 receiving) and had 13 catches. Kamara will look to take advantage of a New England front seven without Matt Judon, who is out indefinitely with a lower bicep tendon tear. The Patriots bolstered their secondary, though, trading for cornerback J.C. Jackson in the wake of what will likely be a season-ending shoulder injury for rookie Christian Gonzalez.

Steelers (2-2) vs. Ravens (3-1): The Ravens lead the AFC North through a quarter of the season, but the Steelers have gotten the better of their rivals in recent years, having won five of the past six matchups between the teams. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett insists he will play against the Ravens despite sustaining a bone bruise in his left knee during last weekend’s 30-6 loss to the Texans. The Steelers are 29th in total offense (263 yards per game) and tied for 29th in scoring (15.5 points per game). Two of their six touchdowns were scored by linebackers — one apiece from Alex Highsmith (pick-6) and T.J. Watt (fumble return). For the Ravens, Lamar Jackson is coming off a four-touchdown game (two rushing, two passing) in a 28-3 win over Cleveland. Baltimore wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman are trending toward returning from injury absences.

Cardinals (1-3) vs. Bengals (1-3): Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow hasn’t thrown a TD pass in three of four games this season. He could be without one of his favorite targets against Arizona, as Tee Higgins has a broken rib. Shockingly, the Bengals average the fewest total yards of offense in the NFL (236), but the Cardinals’ generous defense has surrendered an average of 374.5. Cincinnati will have to be wary of LB Dennis Gardeck, who already has four sacks and is one of three players in the NFC to record a tackle for loss in each of the first four weeks of the season. Arizona QB Kyler Murray won’t be coming off the physically unable to perform list, leaving Josh Dobbs under center. Dobbs hasn’t thrown a pick this season and has completed 70.7 percent of his passes, good for the seventh-highest percentage in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks.

Rams (2-2) vs. Eagles (4-0): One of two undefeated teams left in the NFL, the Eagles are powered by Jalen Hurts, who’s joined Patrick Mahomes as the only quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era with two winning streaks of 10-plus games in the first four seasons of their careers. While Philadelphia ranks No. 2 in rushing offense and No. 5 in total offense, the Rams are No. 2 in passing offense and No. 4 in total yards. Rams QB Matthew Stafford is expected to play through a bruised hip suffered in last week’s 29-23 overtime win over Indianapolis, while star receiver Cooper Kupp could make his season debut after returning to practice this week. Stafford, Kupp and standout rookie receiver Puka Nacua could test a Philadelphia secondary that ranks 27th in passing defense and has given up nine touchdowns through the air.

Broncos (1-3) vs. Jets (1-3): Russell Wilson tossed three touchdown passes for the second time in three weeks to help Denver overcome a 21-point second-half deficit and beat the winless Chicago Bears 31-28 — Sean Payton’s first victory as the Broncos’ coach. Rookie Jaleel McLaughlin stepped up in place of injured Javonte Williams (quad), totaling 104 scrimmage yards (72 rushing, 32 receiving) and a touchdown. The Jets got a season-high game from Zach Wilson (28 completions, 245 yards, two touchdowns) in a 23-20 primetime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Star running back Breece Hall, averaging a robust 6.6 yards per carry, is no longer on a “pitch count” for the Jets. He returns to Denver, where his promising rookie season was cut short by an ACL tear on Oct. 23, 2022. The Jets won that game 16-9 after losing the previous two meetings with Denver.

Vikings (1-3) vs. Chiefs (3-1): Patrick Mahomes shouldered the blame for throwing two interceptions at the New York Jets, but the Chiefs still won their third straight game and will try for their fourth on another road trip. Travis Kelce is going for his third straight game with six-plus catches and 60-plus receiving yards. This serves as a homecoming game for Vikings-turned-Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon, but it’s Isiah Pacheco who has tightened his hold on Kansas City’s No. 1 running back position. He had a career-high 158 yards from scrimmage and a long rushing touchdown against the Jets. Minnesota earned its first win of the season, 21-13, over another winless club, the Carolina Panthers, as Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson connected for two touchdowns to help erase a halftime deficit. Jefferson has gained at least 120 receiving yards in each of his past four homes games.

49ers (4-0) vs. Cowboys (3-1): Everything is going right for San Francisco, which is one of two undefeated teams still standing along with Philadelphia. Running back Christian McCaffery is coming off a four-touchdown performance (three rushing, one receiving) and leads the NFL with 459 yards on the ground. QB Brock Purdy is still undefeated in the regular season, carrying a 9-0 record into the meeting with Dallas. But if any defense is equipped to contain the 49ers, it’s the Cowboys’. Dallas leads the league with three defensive TDs, holds the best turnover differential (plus-9) and is tied for the fifth-most sacks (14). The Cowboys haven’t been slouches on offense, either, averaging 360 total yards of offense per game and winning by at least 20 points in all three of their victories. While the Niners have eliminated Dallas from the postseason in each of the past two seasons, the Cowboys have taken seven of the last nine regular-season meetings between the teams.

–Field Level Media

Oct 1, 2023; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) looks to pass in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5 NFL betting preview: Bryce Young, unlucky Panthers visit Detroit

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We had a good sweat watching the Chicago Bears narrowly cover our +3.5 number last week after enjoying our “luck-trend special” Jacksonville Jaguars pick cover easily.

The main game this week is not among the “must-watch” offerings on the NFL menu, but it can be a tasty option if it lands as a winning bet.

We’ll push to make a case that the two quarterbacks in this matchup are not so different from each other.

We have a primary play, along with a pair of bonus bets for Week 5.

THE HEADLINER

Panthers at Lions, 1 p.m. ET Sunday

The line: Lions -10.

The public numbers backing the Detroit Lions continued to rise this week, as sentiment grew after a decisive Lions victory in Green Bay last Thursday night.

Though Jared Goff has thrown one interception in each of the past three games after avoiding a pick for 383 consecutive throws, there is a great deal of point-spread forgiveness as it relates to the quarterback.

Goff has had a roller-coaster career but he’s been strong this season — and is particularly effective at home. It’s understandable how this line has reached double digits, especially considering the high performance from the running game with David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.

The key to this play is whether to believe Carolina rookie QB Bryce Young is improving.

Averaging only 167.7 yards passing per game, Young has the built-in excuse of a weak offensive line and a less-than-stellar set of receiving options. But he’s the No. 1 overall pick, and more is expected of him.

The bet here is that his game-over-game improvement is no mirage and that Young does enough to keep winless Carolina close.

More than 85 percent of the public money is on the Lions, driving up the spread. That bloated line represents a value opportunity and, when considering the “Luck Rankings” we’ve referenced on prior winning wagers, this feels like a play.

The Panthers are 24 spots lower on the Action Network luck scale than the Lions. And, according to Action Network, “the Panthers also fit the road unlucky team trend that is 54-21-3 (71.2 percent) ATS since 2018.”

Young has to be looking at fellow rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud’s electric start for Houston and finding additional motivation.

At least enough to cover 10 points.

The pick: Panthers +10.

THEY SAID IT

“You just got to be smart with it. I’ve had three (interceptions). Two of them were bad throws, one was a bad decision. … But yeah, I just got to take care of the ball better and really limit that. It’s something I’m focused on.”

–Lions quarterback Jared Goff

BONUS COMBO

Another chance to take advantage of the Dallas Cowboys’ national fan base comes Sunday night in San Francisco.

Cowboys at 49ers, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday

The line: 49ers -3.5.

San Francisco is perfect through four games; Dallas dominated dour Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots last week by a 38-3 count.

Best of all, the betting number puts the two teams virtually even (given the two- or three-point advantage most bookmakers assign to the home team). The Dallas fan base generally pushes the number a little unreasonably toward “America’s Team.”

The opportunity here is to capitalize on the eye test. The Cowboys showed vulnerability in their Week 3 loss at Arizona, while the 49ers — even with the Dallas game on deck — thoroughly took care of business last week against the Cardinals.

For San Francisco, key playmakers are healthy, or in improving health (receiver Deebo Samuel), while Dallas is likely overthinking this matchup.

“You live to play in these kinds of games,” Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said this week. “You dream about it. You don’t want to make it bigger than it is, but the reality is it’s not just another game.”

Honesty is a fine policy, but McCarthy basically spelled out just how he’ll finish second on Sunday — too much emphasis on desperately wanting to win this matchup.

The Niners carry the advantage just about everywhere and, with pass rusher Nick Bosa ready to measure up against Cowboys star and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons, the scene is set for a San Francisco party on Sunday night.

The pick: 49ers -3.5.

PROP CORNER

With Deebo Samuel likely to play, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (20-for-21 last week) continues to enjoy an embarrassment of riches.

Brandon Aiyuk hauled in six catches for 148 yards against Arizona, and with Samuel back on the field, opposing defenses can’t blanket one or the other.

The prop play: 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk over 56.5 receiving yards.

–Field Level Media

Oct 3, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Week 5 NFL betting lines

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We’ve got to give the NFL’s schedule-makers some credit. Last Sunday night it was Tom Brady’s return to New England in prime time. This week it’ll be a rematch of last year’s AFC title game as Buffalo travels to Kansas City.

The Chiefs overcame an early nine-point deficit to win that one 38-24, before losing to Brady and Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl. The Bills will look to prove they’re the team to beat this season.

Sunday’s Games

N.Y. Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3, 45.5 O/U)

If the NFL is looking to grow the game overseas, this matchup of 1-3 teams in London isn’t the way to go — unless Tottenham star Harry Kane kicks for both teams. The Jets are coming off their first win of the season, beating Tennessee in OT as rookie QB Zach Wilson threw for 297 yards and two TDs and the defense had seven sacks. Falcons QB Matt Ryan threw for four TDs in a narrow loss to Washington but will be without leading receiver Calvin Ridley (personal reasons).

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 39.5)

The Broncos (3-1) suffered their first loss last week, 23-7 to Baltimore, as QB Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out with a concussion. Bridgewater has been remarkably effective, the league’s lone quarterback with more than 50 passing attempts and nary an interception. If he can’t clear the protocol, Drew Lock will start. The Steelers (1-3) have lost three in a row and have struggled to protect the aging Ben Roethlisberger. Denver linebacker Von Miller could have a field day.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-10, 49)

The Lions (0-4) are one of only two winless teams in the league and have lost their past seven meetings with their NFC North rivals. Their offensive line has been decimated by injuries, with Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow (turf toe) going on the IR this week. The Vikings (1-3) have been outscored by 11 points in their three losses. RB Dalvin Cook has vowed to play through an ankle injury that limited him to 34 yards on nine carries in a 14-7 loss to Cleveland last week.

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 51)

Would it surprise you to learn second-year Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow has thrown for more yards, has more TD passes and a better passer rating this season than Aaron Rodgers, the reigning NFL MVP? It’s true. The Packers (3-1) have won three in a row since their no-show in the season opener. The Bengals (3-1) have had a couple of extra days to prepare after beating Jacksonville 24-21 in a Thursday night game as Burrow threw for a season-high 348 yards. Bengals RB Joe Mixon is nursing an ankle injury.

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 47.5)

After an emotional victory at New England, in which he became the NFL’s all-time leading passer (80,560 yards), could QB Tom Brady suffer a letdown? Unlikely, as the reigning Super Bowl champion Bucs (3-1) play host to the Dolphins (1-3) and backup Jacoby Brissett. In 35 career starts against the Fins, Brady has accounted for 70 TDs (67 passing, three rushing). The last time the Dolphins won at Tampa Bay, in 1988, Don Shula was the coach and Dan Marino was the QB.

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+9, 39.5)

The Patriots’ Mac Jones has been the best QB of the rookie class thus far, topping the newcomers in completions and passing yards. He nearly pulled off an upset of Tom Brady and defending champion Tampa Bay last week, if not for Nick Folk’s late FG attempt hitting the upright in a 19-17 defeat. Both teams are 1-3, but the Texans are headed in reverse. They lost 40-0 at Buffalo last week as rookie Davis Mills, making his second start for the injured Tyrod Taylor (strained hamstring), was 11 of 21 for just 87 yards and four picks.

New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team (+2, 43.5)

This is an odd-numbered week — Week 5 — so maybe the Saints show up? After crushing Green Bay 38-3 in the opener, New Orleans (2-2) has been wildly inconsistent. The Saints played at home for the first time last week because of Hurricane Ida and lost 27-21 in overtime to the previously winless New York Giants. Washington (1-3) was supposed to have a great defense, but it’s allowing 30.5 ppg. Taylor Heinicke passed for 290 yards and three TDs in a 34-30 win over Atlanta last weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3, 45)

The Eagles (1-3) played Kansas City tough last week, as Jalen Hurts threw for a career-high 387 yards in a 42-30 loss at home. Hurts has a 101.1 QB rating and leads Philadelphia in rushing. The Panthers (3-1) suffered their first loss last weekend, 36-28 at Dallas. Newcomer Sam Darnold has shown why he was once a first-round pick and is the first QB in league history with five rushing TDs through the first four weeks of a season. RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) is doubtful.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+4.5, 48.5)

The Titans (2-2) rival New Orleans for the most unpredictable team, despite having the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry. They lost 27-24 in overtime to the previously winless Jets last weekend. The Titans listed 23 players on their injury report this week, including WRs Julio Jones and A.J. Brown with hamstring problems. The Jaguars (0-4) have lost 19 in a row and coach Urban Meyer had to apologize for his off-the-field conduct. Jacksonville has forced just one turnover while committing nine.

Chicago at Las Vegas (-5.5, 45.5)

Rookie Justin Fields, still looking for his first TD pass, has been named the starter for the Bears (2-2). RB David Montgomery (sprained knee) is going to miss the next 4-5 weeks, so the Raiders (3-1) will be free to tee off on Fields behind a suspect Chicago O-line that has allowed sacks on a league-worst 13.7 percent of passing plays. Bears LB Khalil Mack gets to go up against his former team. The Raiders’ Derek Carr led the NFL through four weeks with 1,399 passing yards. Vegas averages 406.5 yards per game; da Bears, 237.0, worst in the league.

Cleveland at L.A. Chargers (-2.5, 46.5)

The Browns (3-1) allowed a TD on Minnesota’s first drive last week, then shut out the Vikes the rest of the way in a 14-7 win. Myles Garrett, with a league-high six sacks, leads a D allowing 16.8 points and 250.3 yards per game. With QB Baker Mayfield nursing an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, Cleveland needs to keep the score down. That won’t be easy against the Chargers (3-1). QB Justin Herbert continues to impress and Austin Ekeler rushed for a career-high 117 yards last week in a 28-14 win over Las Vegas.

N.Y. Giants at Dallas (-7, 52)

The Giants (1-3) won 27-21 in OT at New Orleans last week as Daniel Jones threw for a career-high 402 yards. Three QBs lead their teams in rushing: Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, and … Jones. The Cowboys (3-1) are clicking on offense. Dak Prescott threw four TD passes last weekend in a 36-28 victory against previously undefeated Carolina and Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a season-high 143 yards and a score. Dallas has a plus-7 turnover differential, as CB Trevon Diggs became the first Cowboy since 1970 with picks in the first four games of a season.

San Francisco at Arizona (-5, 50)

The 49ers (2-2) have been hamstrung by injuries in both backfields and now QB Jimmy Garappolo (calf) is ruled out. Rookie Trey Lance came off the bench at halftime last week and threw for 157 yards in a 28-21 loss to Seattle. The Cardinals (4-0) are the last remaining unbeaten team in the league. QB Kyler Murray ranks fourth in passing yards and is must-see TV. Chase Edmonds rushed for 120 yards in a 37-20 win over the host Los Angeles Rams last weekend in a showdown for first in the NFC West.

Buffalo at Kansas City (-2.5, 56.5)

After a stunning loss to Pittsburgh in their season opener, the Bills (3-1) are back on track. They’ve shut out two of their past three opponents, are allowing just 11.0 points and 216.8 yards per game and have forced 11 turnovers (all league-bests). QB Josh Allen continues to shine and RBs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined to rush for 140 yards in a 40-0 win over hapless Houston last week. For the Chiefs (2-2), Patrick Mahomes threw for five TDs in a 42-30 win at Philadelphia. The K.C. defense has given up the second-most points (31.3) and yards (437.8) per game in the league.

Monday’s Game

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-6.5, 46.5)

The Colts (1-3) finally got their first win in the Carson Wentz Era, defeating host Miami 27-17 last week as Jonathan Taylor rushed for a season-high 103 yards and scored his first TD. The Ravens (3-1) are 16-2 at night under coach John Harbaugh. QB Lamar Jackson had his second regular-season 300-yard passing day ever in a 23-7 win last week at Denver. Jackson has 10 TDs (eight passing, two rushing) vs. zero INTs in four career starts on “Monday Night Football.” LB Justin Houston, who had 19 sacks over the previous two seasons with the Colts, will set his sights on Wentz.

–Field Level Media

Sep 27, 2020; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Cam Newton (1) looks to pass against the Las Vegas Raiders during the fourth quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots-Broncos flexed to 4:25 ET kickoff Week 5

Posted on | by Field Level Media

The NFL shifted the Week 5 schedule, bumping the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots into a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff on Oct. 11.

The game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough was scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Flex scheduling places the CBS broadcast game in the late afternoon timeslot along with the Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET), Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (4:25 p.m. ET) and New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET).

FOX has the Giants-Cowboys game, with the other late games set for CBS.

The “Sunday Night Football” game features the Seattle Seahawks hosting the Minnesota Vikings.

New England is 2-1 in Cam Newton’s first season as quarterback of the Patriots.

Denver opened the season with a primetime loss on “Monday Night Football” to the Tennessee Titans and the Broncos play the New York Jets in primetime Week 4, a Thursday night date between a pair of 0-3 teams outscored by a combined 82 points this season.

Quarterback Drew Lock missed Week 3 with a rotator cuff injury incurred in the Broncos’ Week 2 loss at Pittsburgh. He possibly could return to face New England.

The Patriots have won the past two regular-season meetings between the teams since losing to Peyton Manning and the Broncos in the 2016 AFC Championship game. New England has won five in a row over Denver at Gillette Stadium, with the most recent win coming in November 2014.

–Field Level Media