Jan 14, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) talks with head coach Doug Pederson in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers during a wild card game at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Jaguars intend to let ‘house money’ ride at Kansas City

Spoiler, underdog or longshot playing with house money, the Jacksonville Jaguars visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday unconcerned about the label they are receiving from the football world.

“House money or our money, we’re here now,” Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said on Tuesday.

The fourth-seeded Jaguars (10-8) rallied from a 27-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round and immediately recalibrated to prepare for the top-seeded Chiefs (14-3). The teams collide Saturday in the AFC divisional playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium in a high-stakes remake of their Nov. 13 meeting in the same location.

That 27-17 verdict went the Chiefs’ favor, and Kansas City went 7-1 the rest of the regular season to post the best record in the conference. Jacksonville also is 7-1 since that day, including the confidence-catapulting rally to down the Chargers.

“They’ve got a lot of phenomenal players on that defense and they’re playing faster,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said of what stands out about the Jaguars over the past two months.

A slow start for the Jaguars spelled doom in the earlier visit to Kansas City, one of eight games in their last 10 in which they didn’t score a first-quarter touchdown. The Chiefs put up 20 first-half points, dictating the game plan for Pederson the rest of the way. Jacksonville converted only 28.6 percent of its third-down chances, all but spiking any comeback bid.

“I try to block out the best I can with the team,” Pederson said Tuesday. “You just block out the noise, you block out the negativity, whether it’s lack of respect or whatever. What we’ve done down the stretch, regardless of the mishaps, we’re here.”

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was limited Tuesday due to a toe injury he dealt with for the past six weeks. Lawrence had four interceptions in the first half against the Chargers. He wound up with four touchdown passes, three of them in the second half, and the Jaguars aim to keep piling up positives on Saturday.

“We earned the position we’re in; we’re here now,” Jacksonville wide receiver Zay Jones said. “There are four teams remaining (in the AFC playoffs), and we’re here now.”

The Chiefs were off last week but are 4-2 in divisional playoff games under Reid.

Piloted by All-Pro quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are accustomed to ending the regular season with a week off before shifting gears.

Mahomes, the MVP front-runner, tossed four of his 41 TD passes this season in the win over Jacksonville.

This is the fourth time in Mahomes’ five seasons as a starter that Kansas City dives into the playoffs after earning extra rest during the wild-card round. Last January, Mahomes ripped into the playoffs with five TD passes to sink the Pittsburgh Steelers in a wild-card game.

“You build up for this all season long,” Mahomes said. “They’re a fast, physical team. They’re a talented team, we knew that the first time. We know how much of a challenge it’s going to be for us.”

Considering the Jaguars’ 2-6 start, not many expected this January matchup. Jacksonville selected Lawrence No. 1 in 2021, hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2017 and went 10-39 combined the past three seasons.

“They fly around to the football,” Mahomes said of Jacksonville’s defense, which ranked 28th against the pass and 29th on third down. “We’re going to throw the ball down the field when we get opportunities to.”

Including regular-season bye weeks, Reid is 27-4 with two weeks to prepare for an opponent as a head coach. With Mahomes, Reid is 3-0 in divisional playoff games after a bye week.

“I’ll tell you, that’s the trick to it: to keep the balance to where the players stay sharp and coaches still can add a couple things into (the) mix and go from there,” Reid said.

Kansas City wouldn’t want to stare down Jacksonville’s offense without defensive end Frank Clark. Reid said Tuesday that Clark was limited with a groin injury but didn’t see any reason to fret about his gameday status. Wide receiver Mecole Hardman (pelvis) didn’t practice, but wide receiver Skyy Moore (hand) went through the full practice.

Pederson and Reid are more than familiar foes.

Pederson was a backup quarterback for the Packers when Reid worked in Green Bay as the quarterbacks coach under Mike Holmgren in 1998. When Reid was head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, Pederson joined his coaching staff. He was also offensive coordinator of the Chiefs from 2013-15 under Reid.

Pederson got his first shot at being a head coach with the Eagles, and he guided the franchise to its only Super Bowl title after the 2017 season.

In his first year with the Jaguars, he will try to bump past Reid on the way to another championship.

“It’s a great atmosphere,” Pederson said, looking ahead to Sunday in Kansas City. “We have to embrace it. No one expects us to do anything. So go play, have fun, enjoy the moment and let’s see what happens.”

–Field Level Media

Sep 11, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA;  Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) in action during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Cowboys, 0-7 vs. Tom Brady, ready for rematch with Bucs

Advancing to the NFC divisional playoffs next weekend would require the Dallas Cowboys to deliver on a franchise first.

Dallas is 0-7 against Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady, who already defeated the Cowboys this season.

The Cowboys (12-5) travel to Tampa Bay (8-9) for the unique wild-card matchup on ‘Monday Night Football’ expecting a much different game. The Buccaneers are home for the opening round due to their division title, claiming the NFC South while the Cowboys were second in the NFC East to the Philadelphia Eagles.

“It’s 2023. He ain’t beat us this year. That’s all we’re worried about,” Cowboys safety Jayron Kearse said of the franchise’s winless record against Brady, which includes the season-openers in 2021 and 2022.

Brady is doing more than ever without the benefit of a leading ground game, causing the Buccaneers to pass 78 percent of the time. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich attributes the imbalance to injuries, but Tampa Bay did rush for 152 yards in the 19-17 win to open this season.

“He’s been in a lot of these games. He understands how these games have to be played,” Leftwich said, downplaying the result of the most recent game against Dallas 20 weeks ago. “The last of my worries, really, is Tom. When you get in these moments, it’s making sure we’re good around him, making sure we’re all on the same page.”

Big plays are next to nil from the Buccaneers’ ground game, which generated only three gains of 20-plus yards this season. And in addition to being last in the NFL in rushing yards per game, Tampa was 32nd in yards per carry (3.4) in the regular season.

The passing attack with Brady and tandem 1,000-yard receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans is a different type of threat.

“We’re going to be close to full strength, they’re going to be close to full strength,” said Evans, who had 10 receptions for 207 yards and three TDs in the division-clinching win over Carolina on Jan. 1. “When we’re healthy, it doesn’t matter who the DBs are. Hopefully we get a lot of Cover-1 — you know I love that.”

Getting defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins (pectoral) and linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (neck) back from injuries would be a boost to a Dallas defense that has been average in recent weeks, including a 26-6 loss at Washington to end the regular season.

Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy, who is 0-2 against Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles, said the return of center Tyler Biadasz (ankle) brings Dallas close to complete, health-wise.

To get quarterback Dak Prescott ready for the prime time playoff spot, McCarthy said he used a video reel of his recent turnovers as a learning tool. The goal is to pinpoint where breakdowns take place, not to belabor a point about protecting the ball.

“You’re much better prepared through your failures than your successes,” McCarthy said of his tact.

Prescott had 15 interceptions in 12 games and was picked at least once in each of the final seven games of the regular season. He has one crutch Brady doesn’t: a productive running game.

The Buccaneers allowed 4.5 yards per carry in the regular season. Ezekiel Elliott (876 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs) and Tony Pollard (1,007, 9) became a dynamic combination while Prescott mended his broken right thumb injured in the September loss to the Buccaneers.

Bowles said nose tackle Vita Vea (calf) and cornerback Carlton Davis III (shoulder) will be back after missing time, but Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen (knee) might not be cleared to make his season debut. Jensen was injured in training camp.

“He’s practicing hard, so we’ll see where he is. He’s got some tests to pass,” Bowles said.

Jensen’s replacement, starter Robert Hainsey, was limited in Thursday’s practice with a hamstring injury that forced him out of last week’s game at Atlanta.

Not since 1991 have the Cowboys gone on the road to win a wild card playoff game. Brady is the NFL’s all-time leader in playoff wins with 35, a total that includes seven Super Bowl victories. Dallas, which also owns 35 all-time playoff wins, has four postseason victories since the franchise last won a Super Bowl to end the 1995 season.

“I think we’ll pay most attention to the fact that we’ve had the opportunity to compete twice against them,” McCarthy said. “We have zero responsibility or time to worry about what’s happened in the past.”

–Field Level Media

Jan 2, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (3) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Wildcard TD props: A pick for 6 in every game

Wildcard Weekend, one of the most exciting weekends of the year in the NFL, offers six games to determine the divisional round matchups.

Betting opportunities are plentiful as each playoff game is in a standalone timeslot.

We evaluated all six games and came up with one touchdown scorer prop we like in every matchup.

–AFC wildcard game at Cincinnati
Las Vegas Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals
My favorite touchdown pick is Joe Mixon, but at -165 odds, it’s not the best option as a straight bet.

Mixon is the clear RB1 in Cincinnati, leading the team in red zone usage by a sizable margin. He has 51 total looks, and the next closest option inside the 20 has 13.

The Raiders allow 1.35 touchdowns per game to running backs, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Mixon to score once is a great option in a parlay.

Data shows the Bengals’ offense is the best spot to target, given the defensive vulnerabilities of the Raiders, and the position group of interest keeps coming back to RB. The Raiders are stingy against wide receiver scoring.

Mixon scored twice against the Raiders earlier this year, and the numbers suggest that could happen.

Best Bet: Joe Mixon to Score 2 TDs (+380 on FanDuel)

–AFC wildcard game at Orchard Park, N.Y.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
This is the third matchup between the AFC East rivals since Dec. 6. The first game in Buffalo was a low-scoring affair due to heavy winds, while the second contest showcased more scoring. The Bills won at Foxborough on Dec. 26 by a 33-21 count.

Weather isn’t expected to be a major factor, but the projected temperature at kickoff is 3 degrees.

Something about the playoffs and big games tends to get Josh Allen moving with his legs, and it’s here we’ll focus on a touchdown prop bet.

In four postseason games, Allen has averaged 59.25 rushing yards, scoring once. Allen has also been the leading rusher for Buffalo in both games against New England this season.

With six rushing touchdowns on the year, Allen has comfortably demonstrated the ability to get in the end zone with his legs. I like him to do it again. The past two seasons, Allen has rushed for a touchdown in 9 of 19 home games, good for a 47% rate.

Best Bet: Josh Allen TD (+180 on DraftKings)

–NFC wildcard game at Tampa, Fla.
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
No team allows more touchdowns to tight ends than Philadelphia.

That would suggest Rob Gronkowski is in for a big game, and he’s no stranger to postseason success. Gronk’s odds on FanDuel are +125, a solid option.

We turn our attention to the Eagles’ side, instead, and namely quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Hurts has 10 rushing touchdowns in 15 games this season, and scored twice against Tampa Bay in their previous meeting.

The Philly running back group has some question marks. Miles Sanders has a broken hand and Jordan Howard has been nursing a stinger and looking less effective of late.

Hurts is the constant in this rushing attack with an innate nose for the goal line. His odds are solid at major sportsbooks, but slightly better on FanDuel.

Best Bet: Jalen Hurts TD (+220 on FanDuel)

–NFC wildcard game at Arlington, Texas
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
The highest projected total of the weekend should bring plenty of touchdowns, as two of the more explosive offenses in the NFL face off on Sunday afternoon.

Both offenses should have an edge when they see the field. Dallas averages the sixth-most passing attempts per game and will get a vulnerable San Fran secondary.

The Niners have been running at will for most of the season and get a Cowboys run defense that comes in ranked as a below-average unit on both Pro Football Focus and DVOA.

It’s hard to ignore the consistency of Deebo Samuel, who has scored at least once in 7 of his last 8 games.

Whether it’s through the air or on the ground, Samuel gets the ball no matter where the 49ers are on the field.

You’d like better odds, but sometimes it’s best to follow reliability.

Best Bet: Deebo Samuel TD (-115 on DraftKings)

–AFC wildcard game at Kansas City, Mo.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is the largest favorite this weekend, which can be read in a few ways. On one hand, the Chiefs should be able to put up points, which makes honing in on their offense the safe path.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh is likely to be throwing throughout the game as they play catch up, which gives us a positional group of focus.

On paper, the Chiefs’ biggest advantage is on the ground, but betting on this backfield has been a frustrating endeavor all season. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams and even Derrick Gore getting touches, it feels like a dart throw to guess which one finds the end zone.

Pittsburgh pass-catchers seem certain to be busy, namely Diontae Johnson.

Johnson is Big Ben’s top target and had seven red-zone targets the past three games.

The Chiefs have allowed the seventh-most touchdowns per game to WRs, further supporting this angle.

Johnson scored just three weeks ago against this same Kansas City defense, and I’ll be betting on him to do it again.

Best Bet: Diontae Johnson TD (+180 on DraftKings)

–NFC wildcard game at Inglewood, Calif.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Wild Card Weekend extends to Monday Night, where we’ll be treated to a third game between the Cardinals and Rams.

No team allows more wide receiver touchdowns than Arizona. In eight regular-season home games, Los Angeles has thrown 21 touchdowns and ran in just two.

Cooper Kupp is the preferred pick here if you parlay your touchdown picks, but at -165, that’s poor value on a straight bet. We will mention here that Kupp has scored 16 touchdowns this season, with 1+ in 11 of 17 games this season.

To secure better odds, we’ll shift to Odell Beckham. Since the Rams bye week in Week 11, OBJ has found the end zone in 5 of 7 games, including against these Cardinals.

Beckham is second among Rams pass-catchers in red zone targets since Week 12 and should have the opportunities Monday.
Best Bet: Odell Beckham TD (+140 on DraftKings)

If you wanted to shoot for the stars with a touchdown parlay, the above six picks — including Mixon to score once — combine for +16284 odds on DraftKings.

–By Griffin Carroll (@griffybets), Field Level Media