Normally Vegas keeps past Win Total odds, lines and results close to the chest. The NFP team has researched and accessed win totals results from the last ten seasons in the NFL. These lines give us an idea what teams consistently beat the season’s preliminary over/under line and which ones don’t. While Vegas is still extremely accurate, the data does show small cracks which we are examining in a series of articles. Here’s part one: The Overachievers. The full data table is below.
- Click on the Team name to see a table of the team’s stats by year
- Click on the O/U/Push to see a chart of the team’s results by year
- O/U/Push: The Over/Under record for the given team since 2008. For Example, the Cardinals are 6-3-1:
- 6 seasons in which the Cardinals won more games than their Over/Under Line
- 3 seasons in which the Cardinals won fewer games than their Over/Under Line
- 1 season in which the Cardinals tied their Over/Under Line
- Mean Wins: The Average number of wins per team since 2008.
- Mean O/U Line: The Average Over/Under Line per team since 2008.
- STD DEV: The Standard Deviation of the differences between the wins and over/under lines:
- Low standard Deviations (Bills, Browns, Patriots) mean that the team’s wins and Over/Under Lines were close together.
- High standard Deviations (Panthers, Falcons, Texans) mean that the team’s wins and Over/Under Lines were farther apart.
- Over/Under Line: Predicted number of regular season wins for a team.
- Over/Under Result: Season Results, O for Over, U for Under, Push for Tie.
Data provided by Bovada
Martin is a data analyst that has been applauded for his ability to make the complex simple. He grew up on a farm in northern Vermont and spent his summers helping his mom lead llama treks at Smugglers’ Notch Resort.
Martin graduated from University of Vermont with a degree in Mathematics. After graduation he left Vermont to work for an educational nonprofit called City Year for two years, and followed that up by attending the data science immersive program at Galvanize in Denver. He is an avid Green Bay Packer fan, and spends his free time playing football and soccer.