Not all ‘experts’ are expert at picking where players will go. Jack Bechta
When I was at the NFL Combine two years ago, I had a discussion with draft analyst Mike Mayock. I asked him what round he had my client, Tyrell Johnson from Arkansas State, going in.
“He’ll go in one of the later rounds,” Mayock said.
Tyrell was drafted in the second round by the Vikings.
Last year, many so-called draft gurus had Mitch King, Iowa’s stud DT, slated as a second-to-fourth-round pick. RealGMfootball had King rated as the 62nd pick overall in the second round. NFL Draft Scout projected him as a fourth rounder. The Ourlads draft site had him rated as the fourth-best defensive tackle going in the third.
Result: King wasn’t drafted at all.
The fact is that after the top-rated 32 players, it’s very difficult to gauge where a player might be drafted and what will affect his draft value.
Now that the so-called draft gurus can watch players at the combine on TV and get their workout numbers instantly, it does help the evaluation process. But they still don’t get the type of information that NFL regional scouts and NFL teams can. They don’t get to see medical and training reports. They don’t get to interview the strength coach or even the position coach about the player. They don’t get to hear what other players are saying about him. The majority of scouting Web sites and services rely on second-hand information. Most don’t even have access to game tape.
So what questions should you ask before you read them?
Does the scout(s) have any real NFL experience?
Do they have access to game tape, not TV tape?
Do they go to the combine and all the all-star games?
Do they converse, debate and exchange information with real NFL scouts?
Is it their full-time job?
Do they interview hundreds of players?
Are they immune from the influence of agents?
Do they have talent (an eye) to evaluate?
Were they mentored by someone who was a seasoned evaluator?
If the answer is yes to all or most of these questions, then it’s most likely a draft expert/service you can trust. To my knowledge, there are only about six individuals in the country who are true experts whose opinions should be respected. Most of them are on TV, and two work online.
Before every draft, I sit down with each of my clients and give them the best and worst case scenario to correctly set expectations. Sometimes they don’t like what I have to tell them, but they usually appreciate it later -- especially if they don’t get drafted.
Most NFL draftees have finished school, so they have a lot of time on their hands. Time to jump on line and see where the draft pundits are rating them. If they aren’t doing it, I guarantee you their father, brother, girlfriend and/or buddies are. This can be dangerous since it sets false expectations.
There’s nothing worse than a prospect having a party on draft weekend and his name never gets called. What was supposed to be one of the most celebrated days of his life turns into one of the worst – all thanks to false expectations and the so-called draft gurus.
So for all those players and their families spending time online reading the draft reports, please don’t get too caught up with them. For what it’s worth, I do like Todd McShay, the NFP’s Wes Bunting/Michael Lombardi and Mike Mayock (even though he was off on Tyrell).
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"To my knowledge, there are only about six individuals in the country who are true experts whose opinions should be respected. Most of them are on TV, and two work online."
So who are they?
Bunting's mock drafts are to be trusted. Even though he never scouted or coached at any level, I have it on good authority that he got a B+ in his Mock Draft class at the Devry Institute of Sports.
How exactly does one go about answering most of these questions you're supposed to ask before reading them? How does the average reader know if they interview "hundreds" of prospects, much less the more subjective questions like whether they have a talent for scouting or are under agents' influence?
Isn't Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News the most accurate mock drafter over the last 10 years worth of drafts? You'd put a no next to most of these questions for him...
Shawn Zobel is presumably now gently sobbing in his dorm room while salving his bruised ego with a box of Twinkies.
you cant be serious? wes buntings latest mock draft might be the most awful piece of work ive ever seen. Adam Shefter is the only solid sourse these days, the rest are hit and miss. i love the site, but for a guy like wes who dedicates his time to college scouting and comes up with such a terrible mock is just an embarresment.
Given the clues, we can come up with a partial list of who Bechta respects:
4 on TV: McShay, Mayock, and Lombardi have been mentioned, so that really only leaves Kiper. Done.
2 on-line: Already mentioned Bunting (inexplicably), so that leaves Daniel Jeremiah and Tony Pauline (we can rule out NFL Draft Scout and the others mentioned early on because he didn't circle back on them like he did with Mayock).
Awesome timing of this column as I was just telling a co-worker that the "Draft Experts" are kind of embarrassing as they really don't have to suffer any consequences for their ridiculous mocks and evaluations.
Note; you have to look at mock drafts from 2 different angles. 1) is the expert trying to predict the pick of the team? or 2) is he ranking the best player for the particular team picking in that slot? In the mitch king example, if mitch turns out to be a productive starter this year and next, then the experts who had him in the high rounds were actually right on with him and the entire NFL system failed him.
the point of the article is that once you get passed the first round, the mocks/ratings/evaluations and rankings become less dependable. thus players and families should not depend on them to try to predict what may happen draft weekend.
I go to the Combine, all-star games and constantly talk to a large network of GMs and scouts. It's obvious which experts are working, watching and scouting and which ones are playing to the media. I see who attends these events and how many hours they put into the evaluation process.
Furthermore, a draft expert can not be judeged/graded until 3 years after the draft anyway.
WTF is the point of a multi-round mock draft anyway? Can someone please explain what utility that has to the average sports fan? Who cares if Mayock correctly pegged a guy as a 3rd rounder instead of a 5th??
re: Gosselin
Not sure how many rounds he predicts (and I'm in too much of a hurry to google it right now), but if he picks only the first round, he really is trying to predict the players a team will select based on information about the team via sources rather than evaluate their talent.
That is some element of the with regard to the remainder of the draft, but the ability to predict if a player will be picked past the first two round is probably less based on information from sources and more on talent evaluation. The question then is really does the evaluation of the "expert" fall into the same range as those of NFL scouts (this is the question that Jack seemed to be addressing with his column, in my opinion). In the Mayock example, where he apparently underestimated a players slot by 4-5 round, it is difficult to say he was wildly wrong - just because the Vikings liked Johnson not prove Mayock's opinion was in the minority. However, if an "expert" calls a guy a 3rd rnd prospect and he isn't selected, then you know that no NFL from office agreed with him on that player. Then again, every year some guys that were drafted are cut and some rookie free agents make it. I wish someone would publish a report card on the draft experts every year, focusing on round selected vs actual pick. I'd rather know if those guys are in the ballpark than whether they can read the minds of 31 NFL teams (everyone seems to know who the Raiders will pick, so I haven't counted them).
"...the "Draft Experts" are kind of embarrassing as they really don't have to suffer any consequences for their ridiculous mocks and evaluations."
I think you have wildly unreasonable expectations for 1. scouting in general and 2. predictions made for entertainment purposes.
What do you think of Daniel Jeremiah?
I am the most impressed with his analysis, he is very detailed. You learn stuff.
"Furthermore, a draft expert can not be judeged/graded until 3 years after the draft anyway."
Well then how can you view Lombardi and Bunting's work so positively when they haven't been doing it for 3 years. Or maybe we can just guess....
"It's obvious which experts are working, watching and scouting and which ones are playing to the media. I see who attends these events and how many hours they put into the evaluation process. Furthermore, a draft expert can not be judeged/graded until 3 years after the draft anyway."
It would seem that the guys who put in all the work are wasting their time, then. Nobody (meaning no average sports fan) really cares how accurate a guy was even the day after the draft (at that point, all they care about is the equally-pointless Report Cards), much less 3 years down the line. These things are just done to drive page views and ratings, so a draft expert's time is better spent selling himself as an expert to the average fan than he is scouting players.
Furthermore, what value do even the good draft experts really bring? The only thing I can think is that a fan can judge whether their team reached for a particular player. But since you admitted that (a) only time will tell if that is true, and (b) people who work in scouting are more trustworthy, even that value is essentially worthless.
Ok for all you guys who just come here for the mock drafts you couldn't be more wrong on this site. They do a new one every week or so, of course they have to change it up.
But this has far and away the best draft content of any page out there. Theres indepth articles EVERY Day, breaking news and rankings that are unique compared to everyone else.
I have been reading different draft sites for over ten years now and if you are like me you know they are all pretty much the same. And I am pretty sure come draft day like last year the NFP will once again have one of the most accurate mocks out. This is a place you learn something new everytime out.
jpp = Wes Bunting's mom
I like jeremiah a lot! he is also very well connected. one of the best traits of a good scout is that he is "ego-less". Wes and Todd are the same way. not afraid to admit when they are wrong, then make the adjustment.
Jack, you're all wrong. Anyone who looks at mock drafts as predictors of how the draft will unfold -- or worse, anyone who writes them that way -- is an idiot. They're scenarios of what could unfold, a picture of what teams are thinking. One trade, or one Raiders pick, can throw off an entire round. Everyone knows that.
Jack, you're all wrong. Anyone who looks at mock drafts as predictors of how the draft will unfold -- or worse, anyone who writes them that way -- is an idiot. They're scenarios of what could unfold, a picture of what teams are thinking. One trade, or one Raiders pick, can throw off an entire round. Everyone knows that.
Jack, you're all wrong. Anyone who looks at mock drafts as predictors of how the draft will unfold -- or worse, anyone who writes them that way -- is an idiot. They're scenarios of what could unfold, a picture of what teams are thinking. One trade, or one Raiders pick, can throw off an entire round. Everyone knows that.
Put me in with the people who are confused as to what the point of a mock draft (especially a multi-round mock draft or even a multi-round "big board") is. Do people really sit around with Bunting's 7-round mock/board on draft day and curse their team for taking a guy in the 3rd round when Bunting had him as a 6th rounder? Really??
And even if people did do that, I still don't see the value it brings for them. The player will eventually be evaluated by what he does on the field anyway.
As someone in the business of predictive modeling, I just don't get it. It's not like people are buying stocks in players or placing bets on where they'll go in the draft (at least not on a widespread basis).
Explain the value of a "good" draft expert, please.
I'm really not trying to pile on here or anything, but I'm curious as to what Wes Bunting's credentials are. From what I can gather, he went to a small college with no football team and then got some kind of certificate from a sports science institute in scouting (similar to where Mike Leach went, if not the same place). Did he ever scout for an NFL team before starting to write here? Did he work as a grad assistant in college?
--Genuinely curious, not a hater.
Nate:
Here is Bunting's bio from the NFP site:
"He completed a football GM and scouting course from Sports Management Worldwide, studying under Marc Trestman and Russ Lande, and has published scouting reports for NFLSmackdown.com, Scout.com and NFLDraftscout.com. He’s a member of the Football Writers Association of America."
If he had anything more impressive on his resume (i.e. actual scouting or coaching experience for a team), I think they would have included it. Thus, his credentials fall somewhere on the continuum between "scant" and "nonexistent."
Long story short:
Good draft experts are pointless. Bad draft experts are worse than pointless.
I think Rahman has it right. Bechta would like to say that all draft sites are pointless and the worst among them make his job as an agent even harder because they unjustifiably raise his clients' expectations. He just can't say the first part of that because the blogging platform he's trying to use to raise his profile has a draft expert component to it.
-i know he has been involved in it for a while working for others in the industry. furthermore, he has been closely tutored by 23 year vet lombardi as well. His 2009 mock (some lombardi influence) was used in several war rooms last year as a guide as to what other teams might do. YES, NFL do teams use mock drafts. GMs i talk to love his work. for the record, I am a bit biased as the guy does have natural talent and work ethic.
once again, my message to draftees:' Beware! do not use these to plan your draft party.
McShay and Bunting?
McShay just takes whatever Mayock says and slightly alters it.
Bunting's last two mocks were terrible. I like Wes' evaluation's and all the work he did there, but his mocks this year have been really bad.
I'd put walterfootball.com's mocks way above McShay's or Bunting's.
Mayock is the man. The draft is not an exact science, but go and look at the 2008 draft; Mayock hit on like 30 of 32 picks before they were made on the telecast. And in the 2nd round he was pretty spot on as well for who was going when to whatever team. Mayock was wrong on one guy so you're gonna subtly try and discredit him for it? How about the 100's of pick's he's been spot on with? Who else can say the same?
"he has been involved in it for a while working for others in the industry."
You mean the industry you just said was comprised of only 6 reputable experts?
"furthermore, he has been closely tutored by 23 year vet lombardi as well."
You mean Mike Lombardi, the failed NFL executive who had to turn to BLOGGING when he finally wore out his welcome with the big boys?
"His 2009 mock (some lombardi influence) was used in several war rooms last year as a guide as to what other teams might do."
By other teams, you mean the Raiders.
"GMs i talk to love his work."
Do they tell you that before or after they ask you to come down on a client's asking price? It's shocking that none of these GM's have scooped up this boy wonder yet!!
Face it, haters --- Bunting and Lombardi will be running a NFL team in no time. There experts, as evidenced by their daily blog entries.
If I were a client of Bechta's, I'd fire him for writing for this site. Of course, he always has his stellar TAMU-Kingsville degree and "investment banker" experience (i.e. flag football ringer for some retail brokerage in Dallas) to fall back on.
As the father of a player who was drafted last year, I was one of those family members referenced in Mr. Bechta's article and advised not to take the various sites too seriously. I heartily agree with him. However, I didn't need to read his article to figure that out. Just reading the comments about my son in the various mock draft sites made me realize that none of these people, including the well publicized ones do much original work - they are reading their information of some other site and the exact repeition of the comments show that they are quoting each other. I learned very early on not to take any of it seriously. More important is going to the original sources - how these guys played during the year, what honors they achieved, who they played for, and what their measurables are. One comment above is also exactly correct - it doesn't matter what the average is, as there is only one pick that matters.
We had reasonable expectations for our draft party - and happily it ended sooner than exected.
It's an interesting experience, the mock drafts are much less interesting to me this year.
Mitch King looks to NFL draft to fulfill childhood dream
Brendan Stiles
The Daily Iowan
2 days before the draft
Among many other King articles still out there in the vast library of draft data thanks to Google.
Based on the speculation he has heard from those he trusts most, King believes he may end up being selected this weekend anywhere between the second and fifth rounds. Currently, ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper, Jr., has King pegged as a fourth-round pick, being drafted 115th overall by the New York Jets and listed as a defensive lineman.
Todd McShay of Scouts Inc., also has King drafted in the fourth round, but listed as a defensive end and taken seven spots sooner at the 108th selection held by the Miami Dolphins, who just happen to be the team King said he grew up cheering for.
Wes Bunting of the National Football Post has the 6-2, 280-pound lineman going toward the end of third round at the 99th pick overall, held by the Chicago Bears.
Even with King being regarded as someone who is undersized, there’s no doubt in his mind whether he is as good as they come, saying his work ethic as “second to none.” During the Hawkeyes’ Pro Day, King ran a 4.89 40-yard dash, recorded 25 reps on the bench press of 225 pounds, and had a 331/2 -inch vertical.
Also, the boss and Wes' mock drafts are not even graded by the only people keeping score of all the weathermen, the Huddle Report. Lombardi's finished in the bottom 1/3 of the top mocks drafts two years ago. Off the grid and not even bettable in vegas the past two years.
I can't believe someone called Kiper a respected draft guru. He changes his opinion more than a Hollywood star changes spouses...
RE : Shawn Zobel
I'm not exactly an NFL Mock Draft junkie or anything but I did stumble across this guys sight > DRAFT HEADQUARTERS last year and found his opinions as solid as anyones . After the draft I went back and checked how he measured up and saw he had done better than any of the other sights / tv talking heads ( at least in the 1st round )
Later I found out the guy is like 19 or 20 years old and was even more impressed .
Anyways , when I read an earlier comment raggin' on him ~ thought he deserved better
( no ...this isnt a relative )
NOTE : If this guy deserves ridicule for anything , it 's because he seems to spend most of his time writing a DRAFT / PLAYER OPUS ( 200 + pages ) and unfortunately only upgrades his own MOCK Draft about once every 3 or 4 weeks
ps - One of my original reasons for surfin' Mock Drafts last year was cuz I was in a contest to pick the most 1st rounders and was too lazy to do my own research
( I would have won too ~ if I had just copied ZOBELS exactly ...instead of replacing some of them with my own braintrust...the few I did change were wrong ... .DOH ! )
Don't forget about Nolan Nawrocki from PFW. He missed a few last year but his top 10 % is solid over the years. Also consistently accurate are Kiper and Mayock, though they have been mentioned.
Grades on players is a completely different matter. There are some really stupid teams out there, and their value board contrasts greatly with most of the league, which is where these gurus (privately) get info.
Also, Bunting may be new on the scene and looks like a 17-year-old TE prospect, but he has insight and obviously gets the "real" film. Regardless, how can one comment on a mock draft's validity in March. You know something we don't nyjets10?
Don't forget about Nolan Nawrocki from PFW. He missed a few last year but his top 10 % is solid over the years. Also consistently accurate are Kiper and Mayock, though they have been mentioned.
Grades on players is a completely different matter. There are some really stupid teams out there, and their value board contrasts greatly with most of the league, which is where these gurus (privately) get info.
Also, Bunting may be new on the scene and looks like a 17-year-old TE prospect, but he has insight and obviously gets the "real" film. Regardless, how can one comment on a mock draft's validity in March. You know something we don't nyjets10?
Great read. I've sensed for a long time that the "draft" was really more "daft". It has turned into a closet industry with many of the so-called experts no more knowledgeable than the person at home flipping a coin. I've long felt many players get drafted into a system they don't fit. With contracts and all they have to stay around, but many of the so-called busts are guys who might have made it elsewhere.
I've also concluded the best teams draft well in the first three rounds and find key veteran FA's to add to the mix. The draft isn't going to make a bad team good anymore than eating too much will make you healthier. It's a mix, starting with senior team management, the coaching staff and philosophy.
I stopped buying draft books or doing too much analysis. It is what it is, and the best time to analyze a draft is after it takes place, not before.
Beware The Agent Lying Through His Teeth for His Commission and His Client
I don't get the point of mock drafts. You're never remembered for the right ones, only the wrong ones. What people should be reading is the analysis of players, not where they are projected to go. Bunting does great analysis and actually watches tape instead of just gathering data off the internet and summarizing other's thoughts.
I think Wes and his boss make their mock draft like the two guys in the movie "weird scence" with bra's on their heads in Wes bedroom ,upstairs from mommy and daddy.
Gosselin is really good to read. His draft grading is his strength. I've found him to do a good job at picking the late round picks with talent, and those who probably weren't a good fit, when he grades the draft.
sbdad-You must be a super proud dad! I'm happy for you...but is it really fair to fault the Mocks in your case? I mean you are his dad. What scout could know your boy to your satisfaction?
Regarding Mocks in general. Everyone is good at something. People ask about Wes Buntings credentials...well if you can tell a man by the company he keeps; they wouldn't have hired him here, to work with professional football people if he wasn't the real deal.
IMO some people just love this stuff. I hate to insult other people for working their passion and others still for enjoying that work of those who are passionate.
Kiper-Can not dump on him. He started it all...we now know he relies a little bit more on gossip than his scouting acumen, but he's fun...and after all this is supposed to be fun ain't it? (well it is unless you're a jets fan :)
Really well said Mark F.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but did Mel Kuiper have Ryan Leaf getting selected before Peyton Manning?
Pat Kirwan had GB drafting Justin Harrell with their first pick about 4 years ago. I think he was the only draft prognosticator to peg that pick correctly. Not sure if that was dumb luck or not.
The mocks are somewhat like the NCAA brackets. How many of the "experts" had Kansas winning the whole thing? Gone after getting knocked off by Northern Iowa???
I like that this is on NFP and you have some nobody like Wes Bunting as your draft expert. Way to just reach for clicks. Lame.
Gil Brandt and Charlie Casserly
Gil Brandt and Charlie Casserly
Tyrell Johnson was the 2nd safety on the board behind Kenny Phillips. Right before the draft Mayock had Johnson either ahead of KP or right there with him. Most mocks had Johnson in the top 40 picks. It was thought the Giants were going to take TJ over KP. When was the question asked to Mayock? Johnson was one of the fastest risers in the draft that there. VERY ODD ARTICLE.
Mock drafts are nearly as big a waste of time as romance novels are to women. It's wish fulfillment that just tides over the desperate. Mock drafts are nearly magical to some people like a lottery ticket, they know they aren't going to win, but they keep buying it and arguing over it. The best are the people furious with a bad, fake, imaginary, not-real, total odds against mock draft...and then trying to rationalize it. Oh boy.
Now saying that...I totally disagree with the list of "requirements" to be in the know on half these players. A real student of the game can see things in players without all that. But "experts" always like to keep the dogs at bay by saying: "you don't have all the tools or experience or (blah blah)". Hey if you watch football long enough and study the game outside of games on TV, you're not that far behind the "expert". We, the common guy, have one thing the experts don't: the ego that we are an expert...so we listen to other opinions and formulate educated answers from many great brains.
scouting reports can only get you so far. hypes and media attention may fool you. one of the many standout examples: **google tony mandarich, seems like they refuse to post comments that have links of other sites. so stupid, loosen up fags
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Mar 19, 2010
03:44 PM
Good read. Thanks, Jack.