QUOTE: “By prevailing over all obstacles and distractions, one may unfailingly arrive at his chosen goal or destination.” -- Christopher Columbus
I kept waiting for the upset Sunday, and it almost happened in Kansas City. But for the most part, the very bad teams that played the very good teams got beat — soundly. There is a disparity among teams that I’ve never seen before in my 20-plus years in the NFL. I have a feeling the coming week might produce some trades.
Here are my random game thoughts:
1. In the two overtime games, the winner of the coin toss won one and lost one. So much for the theory that the winner always wins the game.
2. The Broncos held Tom Brady to five completions in the second half for a total of 63 yards. They always seem to make the right game time adjustments. They held the Patriots’ offense to no points in the second half.
APWill Jeff Fisher turn Tennessee's offense over to Vince Young?
3. The Titans tried hard Sunday night, but they need to be objective now and realize they have some talent deficiencies on both offense and defense. They make too many mistakes and can’t rely on their defense to bail them out this year. It’s getting closer to Vince Young time in Tennessee.
4. I was very wrong about Bengals running back Cedric Benson. He looked so slow and soft with the Bears, I thought he would never be a player -- but now he’s very effective. It proves the point that any player picked that high in the draft deserves a second chance.
5. Chris Henry is very a talented player, and now that he’s turned his life around off the field, his play on the field has been great. The Bengals have been fortunate to get Benson and Henry to straighten out their careers.
6. The Falcons are one of the best offensive teams in the NFL, and unless their opponents can keep pace with them, they can hide their defense. They get a lead on their opponents, they’re tough to beat.
7. Redskins running back Clinton Portis looks heavy, sluggish and slow and is clearly not the same back he once was. He’s not in shape, which is evident by his lack of power in his lower body; he can’t break tackles. Getting old in life is hard, but getting old in the NFL for a running back is even harder. Portis averaged 3.3 yards per carry in his last nine games, and Sunday he averaged 3.0 against the worse run defense in the NFL.
8. Did the two sacks Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers make against the ‘Skins make him more attractive in trade talks this week? The Panthers probably want to keep him after this showing.
APIs the Michael Vick experiment even necessary in Philly?
9. I’m not sure what Michael Vick can do for the Eagles. They have enough talented players who can make plays in their regular offense. He seems like a luxury item. Also, if a team needs a wideout, it might want to call Philadelphia and check the availability of Kevin Curtis. He’s expendable now with the play of Jeremy Maclin.
10. I bet even Browns and Bills fans hated watching that game yesterday. Did the Browns really win, or did both teams lose? Does Browns quarterback Derek Anderson keep his job after just completing two passes all day?
11. Bills GM Russ Brandon on the 6-3 loss: “It is frustrating. I said it last week and I will say it again this week, this is a low point for the organization and for the fan base. We worked our tails off in the offseason to put us in a position that should be better than where we are now. Certainly, we understand the frustration of our fans and everyone that supports this organization.” Working your tail off doesn’t ensure success in the NFL. Working your tail off and making the right moves, however, do ensure success. The Bills placed too much faith in quarterback Trent Edwards, believing he could be their answer as a starter. He’s not a starter. News alert: The Bills need a quarterback.
12. The Raiders failed to gain 200 yards on offense for the fourth week in a row. I know that was a long plane ride home and suspect they will make plenty of moves before the trading deadline next week.
13. Bucs quarterback Josh Johnson was much better in his second start. Had his receivers not dropped as many passes (I counted six) his numbers would have been much better.
14. The Texans have played good run defense the past two weeks, but they still can’t get pressure on the passer. What’s killing them, besides their defense, is their lack of a running game. I was shocked they called a run on fourth-and-one late in the game because their offensive line can’t move anyone off the ball. They are just not physical enough to get movement.
15. Tony Romo had the second-best day of his career, and he needed it to avoid losing to the Chiefs, who lost their ninth straight game and ninth consecutive home game. The Chiefs are now 2-28 in their last 30. How bad would life be in Dallas this week if Miles Austin not had a huge day and the Cowboys lost?
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I know the Bills look bad, but what do they do at this point? They are kind of stuck at QB. Maybe they could ask Martz to leave the studio and take over the OC postion.
@ Chad S - that's exactly the point. if Cerrato weren't such a moron, they'd have something better than a practice-squad level player ready to step in. Plus, last I checked, the Panthers were still down 3 DTs on the season...you're saying the rest of the 'Skins line couldn't have opened some holes? Don't make excuses, Portis is fading and the front office screwed the Washington season before it even started.
The Redskins have played a laughably weak schedule so far and have two ugly home wins against bad teams to show for it. Their talent level on offense is so pathetic, I really think they should move any offensive player they can get decent value in terms of picks for. They face a two or three year rebuilding job on offense, so hanging onto vets is probably pointless. How much worse can they be, anyway? Santana Moss and Chris Cooley should be attractive. Maybe some team, ie Raiders, would like to give Jason Campbell a test drive.
1. In the two overtime games, the winner of the coin toss won one and lost one. So much for the theory that the winner always wins the game.
C'mon Mike, no one has that theory. However, just about everyone theorizes that the the winner of the coin toss is more likely to win. And a sample size of two isn't going to prove or disprove that. From 1974-2004, the flip winner wins 52% of the time, the loser wins 44% of the time. It's up to the rules committee to determine whether that disparity is so great as to merit fixing.
http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_11_08_04.html
As a Packers fan I'm wondering if the Raiders have an LT or RT worth trading for? How about the Chiefs, Bucs, or Browns? What would it take to get a Joe Thomas or a Branden Albert traded in the next week? I think that anything less than 2 first rounders would be a great deal for Joe Thomas. 2 first rounders might not be a bad deal either.
Mike, can you give Packer fans any insight on who might be available to improve the O-Line, or the safety position? Even though it has been ugly so far, I still feel like the Packers are 1 good O Tackle (and 1 healthy safety) away from being an elite team. ( We would have beaten the Vikings with Atari Bigby healthy. Virtually all of the big Vikings pass plays were the results of coverage breakdowns by our backup safety.)
Any insight on this would be very much appreciated. Also, Bill Simmons needs you on his podcast ASAP. No one loves discussing theoretical trades better than Bill Simmons, and no one would have better NFL insights than you. Make it happen.
The Redskins apparently don't have depth. You were playing the winless Panthers. Quick fact: The Redskins have played a winless team every week of the season. The Seahawks were down to their 4th string left tackle, signed Wednesday off of the practice squad, and they managed. GM's are paid to create depth.
Tough to talk about DA's performance without mentioning the wind (35 mph) or the drops (8).
Dej,
Almost nobody trades a starting LT in this league- especially one of Alberts or Thomas's talent and age. There is virtually no price that could pry Joe Thomas away from the Browns. If either the Chiefs or Browns traded their LT, it would have to be the first thing they picked in the upcoming draft. No owner is going to pay the signing bonus for a high first round pick and then trade him away 2 seasons later, only to have to pick another player at the same position high and pay his signing bonus. I love fake trades as much as anybody, but I would argue that ANY other player on either of those rosters is more available then the LT's.
I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think the last time a Pro Bowl quality LT was traded was when the Chiefs acquired Willie Roaf from NO. He was already in his 30's and had personal issues with other players on the roster, making it a very unique situation.
And as far as the Packers go, there are plenty of teams in the NFL who are 2 players away from being elite teams. The difference between a good team and an elite team is often only one or two players.
Regardless of what the team's record or your eyes tell you regarding the Redskins. Their fans are in a constant of denial and will always dispute any assertion that their team is talent deficient......... Its Snyder. Its Cerrato. its Zorn. its the officials. In this case, its injury to Chris Samuels. Was Chris Samuels injured when they exploded for 9 points against the Rams? Or how bout the 16 point outburst vs TB last week? Face it, you missed the playoffs last year cause your O line fell apart in the second half of the season after a 6-2 start. You failed to adequately address the O line in the offseason and your team stinks as a result. ....another year at the bottom of the division.
But hey, I'm sure it'll all be fixed next year with another coaching change and the annual free agent spending binge. Adam Archuleta? LOL... Was Brandon Lloyd a trade or free agent? Another hilarious move...... Almost forgot, how's that TJ Duckett for a 2nd and 3rd round pick working out? How bout Jason Taylor for a 2nd? LOL.....If you want to know why your team stinks.......you dont have to look to hard. .....but hey, your right, Clinton Portis is fine, in fact, he's great. Santana...great.....Devin Thomas, Malcom Kelly, Fred Davis?
(Jeremy Maclin might've had more catches, yards and td's yest than those 3 probably have all year)......LOL it never stops....all Hail
I'm just so proud of my Broncos as they continue to defy the skeptics and find a way to win. Now that Orton's no long suppressed by his glove, our offense will really take off. The Falcons are really an intriguing team to me and I fully expect them to go down to the wire in the division with New Orleans. That two-horse race in the NFC South will be really fun to watch. I also have to tip my hat to the Bengals. They just find a way to make plays whenever they need them. Thanks again Lombardi and this was a good week of football. Miami vs. the Jets should be excellent!
Dej,
To think that the Browns would even consider trading Joe Thomas away is laughable at best. The drafted him high and he's the one player that's actually decent. He's the cornerstone of that offense and will never be traded unless it was for a ridiculous Herschel Walker type deal, IMO.
Hey Nate, you forgot the Jason Peters trade that was made this offseason.
The math shows that there is not a SUBSTANTIAL advantage to the coin toss winner. You figure in a tie game each team has a 50% chance of winning- all else equal (ie, home field, injuries, yadda yadda).
The team that wins the toss wins 52% of the time- not at all out of line. What is even more telling is that the team that wins the toss does not win in their FIRST possession 52% of the time- that is just how often they end up winning.
I don't have the exact numbers in front of me but I think the team that wins the toss wins the game on the first possession of the game somethign like 43% of the time.
I don't love the overtime rules because it just feels wrong but statistically I don't think there is much of an arguement that the rules are "unfair" or that the game is decided by the coin toss.
Brad,
Were you one of those Bronco fans who were ready to ship McDaniels out of town before the season even began?
I don't see the Chiefs trading Albert unless the compensation is off the charts. They're trying to rebuild a line that Carl & the Herminator let fall apart. I don't see how they get that done by trading the lone young bright spot on the line.
The Raiders working on trades before next week's deadline? I didn't think a team would want an 80 year old owner; but I've been wrong before. My guess would be the Redskins, Seahawks, Browns, and Lions.
The math shows that there is not a SUBSTANTIAL advantage to the coin toss winner. You figure in a tie game each team has a 50% chance of winning- all else equal (ie, home field, injuries, yadda yadda).
The team that wins the toss wins 52% of the time- not at all out of line. What is even more telling is that the team that wins the toss does not win in their FIRST possession 52% of the time- that is just how often they end up winning.
I don't have the exact numbers in front of me but I think the team that wins the toss wins the game on the first possession of the game somethign like 43% of the time.
I don't love the overtime rules because it just feels wrong but statistically I don't think there is much of an arguement that the rules are "unfair" or that the game is decided by the coin toss.
So much to say re: Titans.... HowEVER...
I was at the Colts game last night when people started chanting "We Want Vince."
Mind you - it was a smaller faction of the fans than you think. They were sitting near the press box, as was I. Needless to say, I think it's important to know that a lot of Titans fans were embarrassed by said chant. Most of my section was mad as hell about it, given the fact that we were on national television.
That being said... How well did Vince DO last night when he got in? The answer says it all.
Another important point. Putting Vince in did absolutely nothing to maintain continuity or chemistry in the locker room. All it did was to serve as a jumping off point for most fans and possibly some players. In the post-game interviews I heard on the radio, Kerry Collins did not sound very happy about Vince being put in. His tone of voice was shocking. The words that he normally very carefully chooses had been injected with resentment. He said, "I wasn't happy about it. I mean, I don't ever want to be taken out of a game."
On the face of it, it doesn't sound that controversial. But when you follow the Titans as closely as I do, listen to every single interview on radio, TV, locally, nationally, whatever... this is not the kind of thing Kerry Collins usually says. He's a company man, and he usually says the same damn thing every game. "We just didn't score enough points. We had our chance to make some plays, and we just didn't execute"... same old crap. He rarely strays from the generic, but last night he did. THAT is not good. THAT is why I wish we hadn't put Vince in.
Kerry Collins is not the sole problem. This team needs to get back to basics. Strength and conditioning. Basic tackling drills. They need to practice fundamentals until they excel at them.
I've been on a few losing sports teams in my day. Every single one of my coaches used the "simplify" technique after a streak of losses. Basketball, mid-season, streak of losses. Coach had us running tons of suicides, shooting tons of free throws, dribbling drills, passing drills, layups. Basic stuff. Build the foundation with the fundamentals. When you are able to pass, dribble, lay up, and run at a high level, then you can add some more advanced techniques. Nothing will work until you solidify that foundation.
The Titans need to get in better condition. Our linebackers are slow as Christmas. Our receivers need to practice catching the damn ball, and they need to practice route-running. Kerry needs to practice all the throws. The whole defensive line needs to hit the weight room and strengthen their legs. The secondary needs to run some damn suicides and practice batting balls down. Damn an interception right now - just knock the damn ball down. And the O-Line. They need to quit panicking, conjure up some confidence and put some people on the ground.
Finally.... the most important thing the Titans need to do is perservere and endure. No, it's not fun to lose, but it needs to be fun to play. They need to play. They need to have fun and remember why they play football in the first place. Because it's fun. It's fun to hit, it's fun to catch, it's fun to outrun somebody. You don't play sports when you're little because you hate it - you play because it's fun! It's fun to be with your friends, it's fun to exercise. If it wasn't fun, you'd try something else - like debate, or the French Club, or politics, or art. Part of getting back to basics is remembering why you play in the first place.
If the Titans pack it in this season, I will be sorely disappointed. The rest of this season needs to serve as a lesson in humility, a lesson in improvement, and a lesson in teamwork. By continuing to work hard and trying to win, they will inspire others in similar situations.
Be an example, Titans. Use this time to inspire. This is not a wasted season. It is merely a chance to experience a different ending than we first imagined. The condition for a miracle is difficulty. The condition for a GREAT miracle is impossibility. I believe in miracles.
GO TITANS
Bills GM Russ Brandon says that they worked their tails off in the offseason to be in a better position than they're in right now. Who is he kidding? The Bills signed a tempermental WR who is 35 and will turn 36 before the end of this season. He has only 12 catches in 5 games. They traded their best OL and ended up cutting his replacement less than a week before the season opener at New England. They drafted a 1st round DE who held out until after training camp, near the end of August. They fired their offensive coordinator about 10 days before the season opener at New England. Brandon has zero teeth behind his position in the organization. He is a marketing guy masquerading as a GM. He is GM because the owner, Ralph Wilson, did not want to go outside the organization to hire a true football man to run the football operations department. The Bills are a mess. They are easily one of the most dysfunctional organizations in all of team sports right now, and that is no exaggeration.
You do realize that Columbus never actually reached his intended destination, don't you?
Too bad Columbus failed to achive his goal of finding anouther route to India
Vince Young has the strangest throwing motion in the NFL.
They should line him up as running back.
Thanks Di Lu, I knew I was forgetting something- There is one huge difference between Peters and guys like Albert and Thomas. Talent-wise, the three are equals or close enough, but contract wise, the owners for the Chiefs and Browns have so much more $ invested in these high picks than BUF did in Peters. Peters, being a later round pick, was traded away so the owner would NOT have to spend money to re-sign him.
For Ralph Wilson, it was wonderful to get some picks in return for Peters, but the real reason for the deal was for him to not have to give 35 mil in gt'd money to a player he was not sure was worth it.
For the Browns or Chiefs, their owners have already spent the 35+ million, and are not about to give up on an investment of that magnitude
The Packers could probably get Alex Barron away from the Rams. He shutout Jared Allen on Sunday.
nate, Di Lu, et al
Jason Peters was traded for a 1st, 4th, and following year 6th round pick. That seems to set the market for a young, needs to be resigned, Left Tackle.
So assuming that Thomas and Albert are much more valuable than Peters because you have already sank big money into them and they are signed, what would the trade value of guys coming due for contracts look like. Someone like Donald Penn or Jeremy Trueblood in Tampa Bay or even Alex Barron in St. Louis. It seems pretty apparent that Tampa Bay is even stingier than the Packers, so would the low cost of signing draft picks seem preferable to paying big money to both Penn and Trueblood. It seems like Penn should be worth what Peters was, but how much less would it take to get Trueblood or Barron. How much more would it take to get Joe Thomas or Branden Albert. Also, I haven't seen much of the Raiders, but are either of their OTs worth anything? It sounds like the Raiders will take offers on anyone right now.
Can we stop talking about the Browns trading Joe Thomas already? The guy is the only Pro Bowler on ther offense. Mangini is building a team that will run the ball and play defense. Guss who is the anchor of that line? You guessed it...Joe Thomas, who is also the best LT in the AFC if not, all of football.
Dej,
My point is that young, pro bowl quality guys who are currently under contract are off limits and there really is no historical precedent for them being traded. Remember, Jason Peters would have held out had he not been traded or re-signed. Guys coming into their free agency years are a different story, however. I agree that Trueblood or Penn might be able to be had, but that has more to do with the financial situation of those teams, and the fact that they have established players already consuming a lot of their cap. In the case of the Browns and Chiefs, however, they have almost no one they want to keep EXCEPT their LT's. I would think that no sane offer would be enough to pry them away from their respective teams. KC had to trade away Jared Allen to get Branden Albert, plus pay him a ton of money, so if you are looking for an answer I guess that would be it: These teams might not hang up the phone in disgust if you offered them a Pro Bowl player at a premium position in his prime plus a crapload of money. I think it would take a Cutler type offer just to keep the Browns from laughing.
Just me- Barron only "shut out" Jared Allen if you are talking about sacks. 2 fumble recoveries and a defensive TD does not sound like a very good job of shutting someone out to me. If you watched the game, you have to admit that Allen was double teamed on nearly every play and there were many times that he was chipped by a back and double teamed. The Rams may very well trade Alex Barron, but, in my opinion, the biggest reason for it would be that he is not worth the money he is making and that they have his replacement currently on the roster.
Dej,
My point is that young, pro bowl quality guys who are currently under contract are off limits and there really is no historical precedent for them being traded. Remember, Jason Peters would have held out had he not been traded or re-signed. Guys coming into their free agency years are a different story, however. I agree that Trueblood or Penn might be able to be had, but that has more to do with the financial situation of those teams, and the fact that they have established players already consuming a lot of their cap. In the case of the Browns and Chiefs, however, they have almost no one they want to keep EXCEPT their LT's. I would think that no sane offer would be enough to pry them away from their respective teams. KC had to trade away Jared Allen to get Branden Albert, plus pay him a ton of money, so if you are looking for an answer I guess that would be it: These teams might not hang up the phone in disgust if you offered them a Pro Bowl player at a premium position in his prime plus a crapload of money. I think it would take a Cutler type offer just to keep the Browns from laughing.
Just me- Barron only "shut out" Jared Allen if you are talking about sacks. 2 fumble recoveries and a defensive TD does not sound like a very good job of shutting someone out to me. If you watched the game, you have to admit that Allen was double teamed on nearly every play and there were many times that he was chipped by a back and double teamed. The Rams may very well trade Alex Barron, but, in my opinion, the biggest reason for it would be that he is not worth the money he is making and that they have his replacement currently on the roster.
Tom Cable should be smashing his own head against a filing cabinet. The Raiders looked pitiful.
Hey Lombardi,
Go ahead and blame the Bills' problems on Trent Edwards. The real problem is management's decision to put together an expansion quality offensive line. NINE FALSE START PENALTIES on Sunday. You can have Jim Kelly back there and it still wouldn't matter. When Ralph Wilson calls for the "code red" on Dick Jauron, he should do the same to the GM as well.
Love ya Mike, but easy on the scientific analysis! A sample size of TWO isn't quite enough to start drawing conclusions, me thinks.
I don't think anyone said the coin toss winner ALWAYS wins, it's that they are more than likely to win. And I think the real argument is that the team that loses the toss many times never gets to get even a single snap on offense. Tom Brady had the same look yesterday that Peyton had during OT of the San Diego playoff loss last year.
And you didn't mention that one of the two toss winners was the decrepit Chiefs, who not only failed to score on their first opening drive but forced a punt that gave them the ball at the FIFTY in OT, which is a guaranteed win for all but the bottom 5% of NFL teams. Scrounge up 16 yards of offense and pray for a tailwind. Lets not use a historically bad offensive team to prove our theories, eh?
Really do love ya, but had to call you out on the OT issue being your lead point. Sorry my man. Keep up the good work!
To be fair, you were the ONLY person that called the Cowboys sliding left on their goal line attempts last week. GREAT analysis! Even yesterday Joe Buck kept saying how Romo should have looked left, but thanks to you, we know that he couldn't, or at least it would have been both difficult and unwise. THAT'S why we read your site!
Dave
The Bills traded their LT for a handful of hope-he-can, Maybin; moved their RT, Walker, to LT only to cut him just before Game 1, then installed a guy who is just not strong enough to play in the Lague. Butler, their RG for two seasons, moved to RT, got hurt and is out for the year. Their rook OG are struggling. Two seasons ago, they rebuilt their OL with the vastly overpriced vets Dockery and Walker; now, they're rebuilding with the young guys. This is an organization sans clue. This team has problems and they are many. Trent Edwards is down the list.
"In the two overtime games, the winner of the coin toss won one and lost one. So much for the theory that the winner always wins the game."
-That is some of the dumbest logic I have ever heard. It's like saying "The Browns won this weekend, and the Patriots lost, so the Browns are better than the Patriots."
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Oct 12, 2009
11:09 AM
Clinton Portis was facing the worst run defense in the NFL, but he also lost his Left Tackle early in the game replaced by a practice squad level player.