QUOTE: “That's what being a boss is. You steer the ship the best way you know how. In the meantime, you find your pleasures where you can.” -- Corrado Junior Soprano
The NFL continues to get better each week. I was speaking with Howard Katz, the chief operating officer of NFL Films, who told me the TV ratings are the highest they’ve been in 20 years. In spite of some very bad teams, the league continues to grow and provide incredible entertainment. Sunday was further evidence why the league is so popular -- in the 1 o’clock window, the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh game was a physical bloodbath. It might not have provided the electric passing games we’ve come to know in the NFL, but if you like excellent defensive football, this game was a winner. Then, in the Sunday night game, we saw a great track meet between two of the game’s finest quarterbacks. In between, we saw Eagles quarterback Donavan McNabb throw for more than 400 yards and lose to the suddenly streaking Chargers. We saw the Packers play like we thought they could, and we might have seen the last of Eagles running back Brian Westbrook this season — and maybe for his career. All in all, the NFL on Sunday was just great.
There’s so much to cover, so much to discuss, it will take more than one column. And, of course, we have Tuesday for all the game-management decisions.
Random thoughts...
1. I’m not sure where to begin with the Patriots’ decision Sunday night, going for it on fourth and two from their own 28. But one thing I am sure of is that they miss their former offensive coordinator and now Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels more than ever. The misuse of timeouts was very unlike the Patriots. Losing the timeouts after a change of possession was a huge mistake in communications that often occurs in pressure games when coaches who are not use to making calls have to make them. It was a painful and costly lesson for the Patriots. Losing the timeout magnified all the other problems (more on this Tuesday in the Tavern). The Patriots have gone for it on fourth and short before in the same area of the field when they played the Falcons, so it was not a case of arrogance by coach Bill Belichick but more a confidence in his offense to gain two yards. It proved to be the wrong move, but don’t confuse arrogance with confidence.
2. The Bengals did a tremendous job keeping Big Ben Roethlisberger in the pocket and forcing him to make throws in tight quarters. He was never able to get his rhythm and never was able to make those loose plays he’s become famous for. Not reacting to his the pump fakes also allowed the Bengals to stay in coverage. They did an amazing job playing team defense. These Bengals are very physical. To beat them, it will take a total team effort because they’re winning as a team. Sunday was a team victory -- they had no turnovers on offense, played terrific defense, and their special teams made the key play of the game. All three phases were outstanding.
3. All this week in Philadelphia, there will be one billion columns in every publication ranting about head coach Andy Reid’s run/pass ratio in San Diego. The problem, however, wasn’t the run/pass ratio but the fact the Eagles were 2 of 5 in the red zone and their defense couldn’t get the ball back late in the game, allowing the Chargers to control the clock for 6 minutes, 42 seconds. If they stop the Chargers, they win the game, regardless of how many passes they called.
4. Desperate teams in November are dangerous, and the Cowboys learned that firsthand against the Packers. This was a tough spot for the Cowboys, no matter how well they’ve played the past few weeks. Coming off a physical game against the Eagles on the road, they had to travel again, this time to Green Bay. Back-to-back road games are never easy, and this game highlighted some of the problems the ‘Boys may face if they play on the road come playoff time.
5. Josh Freeman of the Bucs looks to me like the real deal. He played well against a man-to-man defense and showed incredible poise for a rookie. He needs to learn to protect the ball in the pocket as he had four fumbles, but only lost one. The Bucs now have something to build on.
6. The Rams have been waiting for former first-round pick Chris Long to have a good game, and Sunday he played well. Long had been rushing from the inside at tackle, but he moved out to end and was effective, getting a sack and two hits on Drew Brees. The Saints are losing too many players on defense to keep their unbeaten streak alive. Losing cornerback Tracy Porter and not having Jabari Greer is tough for any team to overcome.
7. The Jags played well on the road, which was unexpected, and the Jets no longer have that Super Bowl look on defense. Losing Kris Jenkins is very tough for the Jets to overcome in the middle of their defense.
8. Text of the day from my man Ray Gustini: Punter Hunter Smith and Clinton Portis have been involved in as many scores this year. He’s right. Portis has one rushing touchdown and one receiving TD and Smith has run for one and thrown for another. The Redskins pushed around the Broncos, which has to make ever Broncos fan very nervous. Their 27 points were season high and second most in the Jim Zorn era (they scored 29 against the Saints in Week 2 last season); 388 total yards were also a season high.
9. Alert to all Bills fans: Scout every college quarterback you can because you need one badly. The Bills are like many NFL teams that will not begin the turnaround until they fix the quarterback position.
10. The Falcons are bad on defense, and when they make mistakes on offense, they are not a good team. They might make the playoffs, but they don’t have a playoff look when I watch them play. They won’t win the NFC South, and Sunday’s game against the Giants will be like a playoff game.
More thoughts later today.
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Despite Yahoo Daves Ax to grind, having your goon throw the Camera man to the ground was really disgusting behavior.
Would Walsh have stood for that? V Lombardi, Tom Landery, Dungy?
Bill Belichick is a great coach but gives off the impression of being a miserable human being.
Don't you just know that yahoodave has been sitting at his computer, frantically, refreshing the page every 20 seconds since 5am, waiting for the DMN to hit the wire so he could "comment" on this.
@yahoodave
You need to reevaluate your comment, bro. That wasn't arrogance, that was BB being a better coach than everyone else. Most coaches punt and play it safe and absolve themself of blame. Belichick didn't do that. He played it smart and it failed.
Not all good decisions succeed. What Belichick did was have more faith in his offense to gain 2 yards (to add to their giant total for the game) than his defense to stop Manning for the first time in the fourth quarter. They were tired, beat up and thin and hadn't gotten the job done (28 points to that point), so why would he think they were a better choice than Brady and the O? Because it's unconventional, it's easy to criticize, but it was the smart choice. If not for a bobble, the Pats win and he's a genius. If he had taken the safe route, it'd be all about how Peyton Manning won the game and blah blah blah. He took the riskier, more logical route, and he's getting the blame.
Tell you what it does. It tells his offense he has all the faith in them in the world and it pisses his defense off and they're going to want to decapitate anything that moves the next time they get on the field.
Yatrix has it spot on. Had the Patriots punted and Manning brings them down for a score anyway then BB would have been damned for that given how well the Brady machine was turning. It was a damned if you do or damned if you don't situation for any coach in that situation with that particular talent on the field. It was a fun game to watch and just shows you it's never over until its over.
um..a better coach then everyone else? ... why is that ? cuz he blew a 17 pt lead in the fourth quarter? becuase he team had to burn timeouts because the wrong personel was on the field? .. hes a coach like everyone else....only exception is that he has BRady...who is a legend...without Brady...he doesnt even make playoffs with same team and easy schedule...and what does it say abou this defensive "genius" that hes afraid to give manniing back the ball with 2 minutes left?? ....
I think yahoodave is actually Eric Mangini. yahoodave is his "secret" name. Think about it, yahoodave loves the Jets... as does Mangini, evidenced by him giving the Jets all of his good players for nothing in retrun. yahoodave hates belichick... as does Mangini. yahoodave hates Lombardi... only because he writes bad stuff about Mangini (him).
I vote with Yatrix and not with Yahoodave and his "so-well-camoflauged" agenda....
I tend to agree with yahoodave's point that Belichick seems to get deified by the media, including Lombardi. Many other coaches get ripped in his columns but not Bill. Absolving him of fault for not having any timeouts by blaming it on a new O Coord. is going a bit too far.
The Hoodie blew it last night with that arrogant call. The consequences of failing to convert on 4th and 2 are too severe that deep in your own territory. I wouldnt have a problem if it was at the 50 yardline or so, but your own 28?.
If you kick then Indy has to drive 70 yards in two minutes or less. I would guess that the chances of converting the 4th down were about 50-50 and the odds of Indy driving 70 yards were about 30%. Hoodie thinks he's infallible and this move blew up in his face.
Brady is a hall of famer, yes dave, but if you think he gets there without BB your nuts. There are plenty of things that the Patriots has done to groom Brady and make him the QB he is...and wether BB has done them directly or indirectly is indifferent, he's the head coach so he gets credit. Peyton Manning gets credit for a comeback and great 4th quarter but his o.line and recievers played outstanding as well...but when your on top you get the credit. BB gets the blame too as he is getting reamed by a lot of media today but it was the right decision in my eyes. In that dome your defense is not holding Peyton back...the Colts are gonna march it down their throat. BB knew it, the fans knew it, everyone watching at home knew it...the strength of that team is their offense, bottom line, so why not put the game in the offense's hands? Make the colts stop your strength, don't give them the opportunity to beat your weakest link. Smart decision BB, and thats why he is the best.
PS this comes from a die hard dolphins fan who hates BB more than anyone else in the NFL and has been wishing for a Brady career ending injury for the past half decade. I can hate but gotta respect.
My expectation was for the Pats to use Stanbeck in the Wildcat late as a new look to get some run yards when they had a lead. maybe he could throw a TD pass to Brady. That would have been a real hoot.
Guess that's why I watch games from the spectator side of things.
Hey, yahoodave, chill out. It's perfectly defensible for Belicheck to have chosen to go for it in that instance. Look, Peter King broke it down perfectly, though unintentionally. He said that the Pats had a 65% chance of making the 2 yards. He said that Peton Manning had a 35% chance of coming down and winning the game on a 70 yard drive. Of course King, being who he is, failed to see that the odds he came up with was a wash for the Patriots. In both cases, they had a 65% chance of "success." Now, we can argue about the percentages, but I don't think anyone would move that number "down" for Peyton. And I really don't see the Pats having less than a 65% change of getting 2 yards. So, if it was a wash, we've got to ask, "are there any other potential benefits to doing it one way or the other?" Well, yes. There are. Say you go for it and fail (which is what happened - the 35% chance). If that's the case, Manning will likely score, but it isn't certain (that's a bonus there). Even if you think he has a 99% chance of scoring, he's likely to do it quicker (thus leaving you more time to try and get a FG) than if he had to drvie 70 yards. These are just the facts. In fact, if the Pats' DBs were a little smarter, they'd have let Addai walk in after he broke through the first two levels - the Pats would have had 1:07 to drive the field for a FG to win. That almost happened. And that's AFTER they got the bad side of a close call on 4th and 2.
Look, you can call it arrogant all you want - everyone gets their own opinion. But do this the logical way - what percentage would you guess the Pats had at getting the first? How about Peyton successfuly driving down the field 70 yards. Be honest. That'll help you evaluate what Belicheck did. You'll see it isn't so "obvious" a call and, in fact, Belicheck likely made the right call - it just turned out poorly (that happens in sports).
this is a perfect example of how people just take sides on things based on what they already think. those who hate belichick think his bodyguard threw the cameraman down. those who think he's a great coach (or anyone who was paying attention) would see that the cameraman fell because he RAN OUT OF CABLE and actually then ran into the bodyguard. why they were using a BNC cable on the field in 2009 I can't say, there has to be a way to do that wirelessly. (that too was a questionable decision). belichick certainly has arrogant tendencies, but so does kobe, so does brady, so do a lot of people who are the best at what they do. when you're the best i say you can afford a little arrogance. as far as the actual decision to go for it? i like it but it's a tough call...you could argue either side. but that's why he's the coach and we're just a bunch of schmoes that have nothing better to do than sit at home and kill him for any call he makes on some blog.
hey Mike,
I wonder if Portis is in the same boat as Westbrook? -- although I might be surprised if this was a career-ender for Westbrook.
Did he come back too early? And if so, does this mean the Skins and Portis will hesitate to rush Portis back into the lineup -- especially as their season has tanked and Betts is no everyday slouch.
The Westbrook and Portis concussions bring Matt's great column on concussions from earlier in the year back into mind.
@ Yatrix - good explanation on why it was a better decision to go for it than punt. To add to that..
If Belichek punts the Colts come down the field and score while leaving no time on the clock for the Patriots. Since the 4th down attempt failed, the smart move would have been for the Patriots' safety to NOT tackle Addai at the 2 yard line. If Addai scores on that play the Colts take a 1 point lead and kick back to the Patriots leaving Brady 1:40 or so on the clock and only needing to get into field goal range. Even w/o timeouts I'd bet on Brady/Moss/welker/Faulk to get into field goal range for a very good kicker. If I'm a Pats fan I'd be more upset at the safety making the tackle than Belichek's decision to go for it on 4th down.
for anyone saying (yahoo dave) that people dont question BB decisions and he gets these passes, lets consider these facts:
BB elects to continue using Brady in 01 rather than bledsoe once he healed... the media killed him for that...
en route to there 2nd superbowl before opening day they cut milloy ...tom jackson states that "BB your team hates you"
in denver in 03 BB decides to take a safety to chaqnge field position... then brady leads team for go ahead TD after impressive D stand
look i could list several other instances as could any pats fan... ive seen him go for these 4th downs on many instances in many diffrent circumstances...someworked out some didnt... this loss lands square on him and know one knows that more than his team, but his team knows that many of those wins they enjoyed were because of him as well...thats why they will Move On....
this loss is just that , a loss . yes it will most likely effect the seeding for playoffs and homefield advantage...but ask yourself one thing... if the playoffs do come come around and the pats are lucky enough to be there ...do you think indy will feel relieved to be playing them again at home or anywhere else for that matter?
I hope the Eagles shut Westbrook down for the season. As badly as they need him, he can't risk his health with multiple concussions. Hopefully he sits out and can come back and play again next season. Its not worth his longterm health to put him back out there this season.
I think you're giving Andy a free pass on this one. If they ran the ball or were capbale of running the ball they wouldn't be settling for so many field goals. Its groundhog's day again. Same problems over and over. No running. Can't covert short yardage. Can't covert in red zone. And the cherry on top, they wasted timeouts yet again. No excuses, he has to go.
Well,
The Broncos' performance was discouraging at Washington, but perhaps the Redskins have found themselves. The major issue now is San Diego, we need to hammer the Chargers and seize control of the AFC West irrefutably. In any case, the Cowboys have some issues as well, but the Bengals don't appear to have many weaknesses right now. The Colts and Saints just find a way to get it done and that's really all that matters. Thanks again, Lombardi, hopefully the Broncos correct their mistakes.
A few things here. First as a Colts fan I can tell you this: I would want my team led by my future hall of fame qb to go for it in the same situation rather than punt to Brady, and I'm guessing a lot of Patriots fans felt the same the way, so I don't really think it was a terrible call. This is completely biased but I felt confident that Manning would have led the team down the field with 2:00 minutes and a timeout anyway.
Two, for Lombardi to throw 0 criticism at Belichek for wasted time outs is absolutely ridiculous. He talks all of the time about poor clock management and wasting time outs. He never says Andy Reid's O-Coordinator is to blame or at fault. BUT he suggests that the new O-Coordinator is to blame for that awful timeout BEFORE first down ever happened. That was off of a kickoff and having about a minute to get yourself together. Very un-Patriot like, but for Lombardi to fail to mention this is a little weak.
Three, Jeffrey you must have watched a different game than me, because our WR were awful in this game. Austin Collie dropped a huge 3rd down with no one in front of him after he burned a linebacker. Garcon dropped multiple balls, at least 3, one being a perfectly thrown 50 yarder before the half. They also were called for penalties. BIG mistakes, the WR did not play well at all for the Colts with the exception of course being Reggie Wayne.
Why don't teams just take the five yard delay of game penalty in lieu of wasting timeouts? IMHO a five yard penalty is easier to overcome than not having timeouts in critical strategic stages of the 4th quarter.
Why don't teams just take the five yard delay of game penalty in lieu of wasting timeouts? IMHO a five yard penalty is easier to overcome than not having timeouts in critical strategic stages of the 4th quarter.
I am so tired of seeing Trent Edwards as the starting QB for the Buffalo Bills. His approach to the position is just as tiring as seeing him play the position. This is the 3rd season in which has been a starting QB and he has yet to firmly establish himself as a leader and the long-term answer at QB. The Bills continue to spin their wheels and not admit the fact that they need total rebuilding. They are on the hook for $6 million due to their head coach Dick Jauron after this season. I sincerely doubt that owner Ralph Wilson will pay this man not to coach this team.
Patrick, was just using that as an example for how credit gets thrown on guy at the top all the time. I was going to put disclaimer that I didn't necessarly believe that to be the case but it was just an example. Football's not like baseball where a pitcher can dominate an entire game by himself..but qb's get credit thrown at them the same way a pitcher will...
That wasn't a good idea by BB . Any other coach would have been lambasted for making that decision deep in their own territory . Sexy but not smart in that situation . Just fundamentally unsound at that point in the game .
History of BB going for it on 4th down vs. Colts: 8 for 12 in the regular season. 4 for 4 in the playoffs.
The line judge that claimed the Faulk catch was a "bobble" was in BACK of the play (Faulk has his back to him) so how could he possibly know that?
In fact it was a secure catch, and should have been spotted at the place of forward progress (easily a first down) not where the play was dead.
That being said, that is only one of a number of errors made in the game. Patriots had chances to put them away and simply didn't.
Uncanny parallel to Barry Switzer in '95 calling a power left in a 4th and 1 on his own 29, Cowboys vs. Eagles. Emmitt Smith gets stuffed on the line and Barry is called "Bozo Coach" in the papers the next day.
What happens? The team rallies around their head coach and wins the rest of their games that season and wins the superbowl.
The decision to pass on 3rd and 2 was a bad call, no matter what you think of the 4th down play. So even if Bill B. was "right" there, it's not like he coached some genius sequence.
Not only was the call not arrogant, but it was in my opinion the right call. Everyone knows how dangerous Peyton Manning is. I think it's reasonable to assume that he's going to get a touchdown at least 40% of the time in that situation (i don't know the exact percentage but i'm sure someone could look this up). I'd think the probabiltity that they convert the 4th down is about 75%. so you're looking at 75% win vs. 60% win.
If anything, I think my estimates are conservative and it's probably more like 80%/50%. So I think it was the right call. Certainly by no means was it egregiously wrong.
as for the cowboys, mike, maybe the packers had a little to do with dallas' problems yesterday, "tough spot" or not. there was another team on the field after all.
Let's see now. Manning has proven time and again he can drive all the way down the field and score in minimal time to win games. He had just done exactly that in under two minutes without using a single timeout. Now people are suggesting that it was "smart" to hope NE's mediocre special teams could punt it away, not give up a big return, and hope that the same worn out defense could prevent Manning from doing the exact same thing with a full two minutes and a timeout left?
Since when is being aggressive a bad thing in a coach? If it was 4th and goal from the 2, 3-4 minutes left, your team is down by 6, and your coach decided to go for it rather than kick a fieldgoal and HOPE his defense that had just been slashed for 10pts in a couple of minutes could stop a great offense, you'd give him credit for going for the win regardless of how that 4th and goal went. Was it risky? Did he know he would be vilified if it didn't work? Of course he did, but he did what he thought had the best chance at winning the game. He rolled the dice and crapped out. It happens. This had nothing to do with hubris or arrogance and everything to do with taking a calculated risk. I'm stuck with Norv Freaking Turner as my head coach. I just wish he had the cajones to make a call like that when it mattered.
BB's decision was gutsy, but wrong. You don't have to side with yahooDave to disagree with this decision. Punt it, then send the house at Peyton after the first incomplete pass. If you get a sack you might just win the game. How can the Pats D have any confidence when BB, the legend, basically anounces on national TV that he has no confidence in their ability to stop a TD to win a game? This vote of no confidence is likely to negatively affect the Pats D the rest of the season.
Why are we talking about this so much anyway. What about MJD's amazing slide at the 1 yard line? Instead of padding his stats and getting an easy TD, he stops so they can run out the clock and win on the last play. Now that was a great end of game decision.
Eagles: "The problem, however, wasn’t the run/pass ratio"
The run/pass problem killed them early. Down 14, with a first and goal on the one, they try two passes, then try just one run. Having no faith in their run game, they kick on fourth and one.
I'll never understand the reluctance of NFL head coaches to go for it on 4th and one on the one. If you don't make it, you have the other team pinned deep. Why not go for it?
@ YahooDave "Brady's been carrying him for his entire PAtriot run...and last night he screwed Brady" - How? By giving him a chance to win the game? You're an idiot.
Mike, I believe Greer and Sharper could've played if it were not the Rams, The only person missing is Porter for the next few weeks. Fujita's back , Ellis will be back for the New England game and Porter is the only significant injury and we still have Jenkins and Gay. We'll be fine.
Hadn't gotten the job done = 2 4th quarter picks apparently.
Not to pile on, but oh well . . . I can't see how, Michael, you don't think Belichick was being confident and not arrogant. Going for it at that stage of the game, at your own 20, that is arrogant. Confident would be to punt it and play defense. Arrogant is saying I know better than everyone else, conventional wisdom, etc., and going for it. There isn't anything with being arrogant if you can back up it, which Belichick can do most of the time, just man up when you are proven wrong.
I'm still amazed by Sebastian Vollmer. Dude wasn't even at the combine and Belichick took him in the 4th round and now he's the starting OLT and he's already played at ORT. Yes he had a rough night last night, but come on, to find a rookie starter that most experts had as a undrafted free agent practice squad project . . . man, that is something. I don't think the Pats are the deepest team in the league but they are the best coached, and to not only make the roster but start in two positions as a rookie, I am floored by that.
This is no contest: Bad call!
Most NFL teams get 11.5 possessions per game. Assume then the Colts have had 103 possessions in their 9 games (I had trouble finding the exact stat). Also assume that average start position of a drive is around the 30 or 35, where the Colts would've gotten the ball on a punt from the Pats. The Colts have only scored 30 TDs this year. So, on their average drive, starting from average position, COLTS SCORE TD'S 29% OF THE TIME. This is rough and counts on some pretty fundamental assumptions (in addition to those mentioned so far, for instance, they were in 4-down territory here, whereas at least 12 drives ended in FGs for the Colts so far), but probably nothing that's too far of a stretch.
The Colts RED ZONE scoring percentage is somewhere around 60% this year. I'd be interested in what that figures w/o field goals, but I bet it's north of 50%.
So, instead of giving the Colts a 30% chance at a TD to win the game, Bellicheck rolled the dice on giving them a 50+% chance. Good coaching, genius.
Other factors that made this a bad call: There was no guarantee they wouldn't have to punt even if they made it; he didn't have the timeouts to challenge on a close play; there are collateral effects on the confidence of the defense going forward that Bruschi and others have been noting.
I dislike the Pats; at the same time, I can frankly acknowledge that BB is the best coach in the game. On this play, though, his ego got the best of him, and it cost his team.
C'mon Patspsycho did you not watch the replay? Faulk clearly bobbled once. I'm not going to say that the spot was still perfect one way or the other, but Faulk definitely bobbled once. The real problem was not going for it on 4th down as someone else stated, but choosing to pass on 3 and 2. The colts run D, while improving, isn't great, and even if they stop the run you force them to either use their timeout or it goes to the 2 minute warning. I still have no problem with the 4th down call, but again Patspsycho, you aren't paying attention if you don't think that Faulk bobbled just once
Bellichik is a very good coach but I don't disregard the Brady factor. Remember Bill before Brady was not really that good. He probably did his best coaching job last year after losing his OC, DC and starting QB. This call was a calculated gamble. Clearly it was a mistake. NE has a good defense and I would rather force Manning to go 60 yards with the time remaining than 28. Of course if it works he is a genius. But then I think the MJD sitdown was also a bad decision. If you are tied or ahead by one it is a perfect call but down by one you risk a lot on what is essentially an extra point. We saw two PATs missed early yesterday. If MJD scores, the Jags go for two and are either up five or seven. By sitting down they risk losing the game on a missed kick. The decision worked out for the Jags this time but I still don't believe it was the smart thing to do. Just as I don't believe going for it on fourth down was the smart thing to do for the Pats. Only difference - one risk panned out and the other did not.
Interesting reading all the comments vis BB and 4th and 2. Go or no go. Let us all hop into the Wayback machine to January 2004. NFC divisional playoff, Packers v Eagles. Late 4th Q Packers had a 4th and 1. Make it and you win the game since the Eagles have no timeouts remaining. Sherman did the safe and conventional thing and punted even though the Packers o line owned the Eagles at that stage of the game. Although the defense forcied the Eagles to a 4th and 26, the Packers still managed to lose the game when the Eagles converted, tied the game and Favre threw the interception in OT. My point-obviously with a 4th down play late in the game you are damned if you do, damned if you don't. If either the Pats or Packers made it, the coach is a hero; don't, well just read the posts.
With 2:08 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful 4th-and-2 conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A conversion on 4th-and-2 would be successful 60 percent of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53 percent of the time from that field position. The total win probability for the 4th-down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP (WP stands for win probability)
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their 34. Teams historically get the TD 30 percent of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You’d have to expect the Colts had a better than 30 percent chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats’ 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it’s pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that makes punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
Everybody in New England, except Belichick and his team, will overreact to what happened last night. Belichick picked his poison - his offense over his defense.
On to Week 11.
It's nice that at least some people are analyzing the Belichick call objectively and not just blurting out an emotional response. I wrote before that I thought it was the right move based on guessing the percentages...if those numbers are correct it seems like Brian hit it pretty well (and came up with the same conclusion that it was a good call).
Had the Patriots punted and Manning brings them down for a score anyway then BB would have been damned for that given how well the Brady machine was turning. It was a damned if you do or damned if you don't situation for any coach in that situation with that particular talent on the field.
But then I think the MJD sitdown was also a bad decision. If you are tied or ahead by one it is a perfect call but down by one you risk a lot on what is essentially an extra point.
Thank you for information.
A list of thank yous and a final...
Even if you called me an idiot,...
Their success will depend on QB...
Titans coach wants Chris Johnson...
Now is the QB’s chance to show...
Nov 16, 2009
11:15 AM
Such a coward Mike.... You really need to reevaluate ur decision to become a journalist..against your fear of bill bellicheck. To say he wasnt arrogant on that call is ridculous. To constantly say everything goes through him...and laud him for every smart decision a patriot makes....yet blame the timeouts and the wrong personnel on the field on the offensive coordinator is ridiculous . Going for fourth and short agaisnt the Falcons in the third quarter is a completely different decision than fourth and short with 2 minutes left against Manning with a 6 point lead. It was a terrible call by an arrogant egomaniac and it cost him.. I especially enjoyed his bodyguard throwing down a cameraman on the way off the field. Ochocinco gets fined for a joke..yet bellichecks guys throw cameramen around and theres no backlash.. HEs overrated..Brady's been carrying him for his entire PAtriot run...and last night he screwed Brady