This is the ninth in a series of articles about the NFL Combine. All information in this article is based on the 1999-2012 Combines. The DRAFTMETRICS analysis includes the results of the following drills:
This article reviews the Combine results from three perspectives:
• Provide a context for Combine results by reporting historical performance
• Consider whether results of any Combine drills are meaningful predictors of future success
• Consider whether results of any Combine drills portend a low probability of success
DRAFTMETRICS summarized its information by four overlapping groups of players. An individual player can be included in only one group or a many as all four. The groups are:
• All Combine participants from 1999 through 2012
• Combine participants who were drafted from 1999 through 2012
• Combine participants who started at least one season (starters start at least 8 games in a season)
• Combine participants who started at least three seasons
The following table displays the number of participants and average for each of the player groups and is a good starting point in evaluating 2013 Combine results.
The next table shows the range of results for all players who started for at least one season.
DRAFTMETRICS offers the following observations based on its review of Safeties and their Combine results:
• The 40-yard splits are the biggest indicator of future success
-The 40-yard dash has the biggest advantage for starters
-81% of 3-year starters and 74% of 1-year starters ran the 40 in 4.51 seconds or faster versus 60% of all Combine participants
-The 10-yard split and flying 20 results are also significant
-72% of 3-year starters and 70% of 1-year starters ran the 10-yard split in 1.56 seconds or faster compared to 54% of all Combine participants
-67% of 3-year starters and 62% of 1-year starters ran flying 20 in 1.88 seconds or faster compared to 46% of all Combine participants
• The vertical jump and the 20-yard shuttle results were next in significance
-83% of 3-year starters and 73% of 1-year starters jumped 35.5 inches or more compared to 61% of all Combine participants
-59% of 3-year starters and 51% of 1-year starters ran the 20-yard shuttle in 4.11 seconds or faster compared to 41% of all Combine participants
• There were also surprisingly large advantages for starters over all participants in the bench press
-It is hard to imagine, though, that the bench press is very important for cornerbacks
-70% of 3-year starters and 66% of 1-year starters had 15 or more bench press reps compared to 51% of all Combine participants
• Starters also performed modestly better than all participants in the broad jump and 3-Cone drills
• A few “red flags” were noted
-Only six of the 99 Combine participants who ran the 40 in 4.55 seconds or slower became 3-year starters
-None of the 35 Combine participants who ran the 40 in 4.64 seconds or slower became 3-year starters and only two became 1–year starters
-Only one of the 35 Combine participants who had a vertical jump of less than 32.5 inches became a 3-year starter
-Only one of the 29 Combine participants who jumped 113 inches or less in the broad jump became a 3-year startero None of the 31 Combine participants who ran 1.65 seconds or slower in the 10-yard split became a 3-year starters
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