February 15, 2015 - Tony Villiotti
Which combine drills are most important?
No one seriously believes that the NFL Combine allows scouts or their geeky counterparts to sit in an office and evaluate talent based solely on Combine results. Where there is disagreement, though, is in how to interpret those results. Some believe the Combine data is relatively useless and that the true value of the Combine lies in its medical exams and interviews. I tend to believe that the data shows that the results of some drills, dependent on the playing position, do seem to be an indicator of success and should be an element in the decision-making process.
This article presents the results of an analysis that seems to support that case. It should be said up-front that no drill that provides an absolute guarantee of success. Rather, it is a matter of improving a team’s probability of success on draft day. Think of it like basic strategy in blackjack.
The analysis was performed using Combine results for the past 10 years (2005-2014) and reviewed each drill by playing position for top Combine performers and all Combine participants. The metric used in the analysis to measure success is whether a player has started one NFL season, an admittedly low hurdle but one that fits the time frame used in the analysis. A starting season is defined as any season where a player starts at least eight games. Top Performers are defined as the top five performers (plus ties) at each drill in each year for each playing position.
The analysis was intended to serve three purposes:
- Identify the playing positions for which the Combine is most important
- Place the drills in order of importance by playing position
- Determine the degree of difference among the drills for each playing position
- This recognizes that simply putting the drills in order of importance does not provide enough information to evaluate importance
- More about the degree of difference later in the article
- 40 yard dash (“40)”
- Further broken down into the first 10 yards (“10”), the first 20 yards (“20) and the final 20 yards “F20”
- The final 20 yards are often referred to as the “flying 20” because the player has a running start (the first 20 yards) to begin the timing
- Bench Press (“BP”)
- Vertical Jump (“VJ”)
- Broad Jump (“BJ”)
- 20 yard shuttle (“20S’)
- 3-cone drill (“3C”)