Sep 12, 2021; Detroit, Michigan, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Raheem Mostert (31) puts a stiff arm to the helmet of Detroit Lions defensive back Will Harris (25) in the first quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Lions 49ers Picks, NFC Championship Prop Bets

Detroit has never won as a playoff underdog and oddsmakers don’t think they will break the streak Sunday in San Francisco.

The 49ers are favored by a TD a week after escaping the Packers and despite riding a 6-game ATS home losing streak. And despite a slew of positive ATS trends for the Lions.

Detroit can pound the rock but cannot stop the run. This should speed up the game and provide few enough possessions that the UNDER 52 should be in play here. Deebo Samuel will play, the 49ers have won 13 straight vs the Lions and they should win here, but……

Lions 49ers Picks: Odds SF -7, Total 52 | Matchup Report

 

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Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit will be aggressive and will take risks on fourth downs while testing the 49ers run defense. And they have been a great bet going back a few seasons (22-7 ATS in 29 games) and especially tough lately as an underdog (8-1 ATS).

They have won six straight January games and have more than a puncher’s chance here. Especially if Brock Purdy plays as sketchy as he did last week vs Green Bay.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Francisco almost always wins as playoff home chalk (16-4 SU since 1990) and they are primed here with a superior defense and offense. Their loss to the Eagles in this spot last year motivates them to take care of business now.

The Lions secondary ranked second last in yards per catch allowed and Purdy should be able to exploit this weakness with George Kittle and his talented wideouts. Meanwhile the Lions offense shrinks on the road and averages barely 17 PPG in non-dome stadiums, while they put 31 PPG indoors.

That all ads up to a potential rout as the feel-good Lions story ends with a sad chapter.

Lions 49ers Picks

We expect running attack on both sides – that should spell an UNDER bet. And we don’t buy the Lions ability to go on the road, outdoors and beat the NFC’s top power-rated team. We play Chalk and UNDER as our NFC Championship picks.

Lions 49ers Prop Bets

Brock Purdy OVER 276.5 passing yards – whether its check-downs to McCaffrey or slingshots to Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk or Kittle, we see his passing yard totals eclipsing 300, even if the 49ers do run the ball.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 36.5 receiving yards – screen plays, checkdowns, short catches plus YAC, we see hm easily over this number.

49ers Lions Betting Trends

Lions have never won as a playoff underdog (0-7 SU, 1-5-1 ATS)

49ers are 16-4 SU as home playoff favorite since 1990

49ers are 13-0 SU at home to Detroit since losing 28-17 Nov. 2, 1975

Lions are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games

Lions are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.

Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 conference games

Lions have won 6 straight January games, 5-1 ATS

Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as the underdog.

49ers are 0-6 ATS past 6 home games

49ers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games played in January.

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