The Los Angeles Rams are coming off back-to-back losses and a bye week, so many bettors may think they will have their issues figured out. Not so fast.
Heading into Lambeau Field is never an easy task. The Green Bay Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games and 15-2 SU in their previous 17 Sunday home games. The Rams have also struggled against Green Bay historically, losers of their last seven games against the Packers.
This year, the Packers have been a wagon, covering the spread in nine of their 10 games, which is why I like the Packers +1 at FanDuel.
Rams Packers Betting Pick, Odds: GB +1, Total 47 | Matchup Report
Why the LA Rams will cover the spread
The Rams have been a good team on the road this season, as they are 4-1 with big wins over the Colts and Seahawks. If a team in the NFC can go into Lambeau and beat the Packers, the Rams have to be at the top of that list.
The Rams offense is still one of the best in the league, even with their recent struggles. They are 4th in EPA per play and own the 2nd ranked DVOA offense, according to Football Outsiders. The Packers’ pass defense got torched last week by Kirk Cousins, allowing 341 yards on 24 completions. Matthew Stafford is a much better quarterback than Kirk Cousins.
On the trends side, this is the first time Green Bay is a home dog since a Sept 2018 game when they tied the Vikings 29-29. And since 2013, the Pack is just 2-6 ATS when catching points.
Why the Green Bay Packers will cover the spread
Aaron Rodgers is battling a toe injury, but he looked pretty darn good last week against the Vikings. He completed 23 passes for 385 yards and four touchdowns, which is easily his best game of the season.
The Packers will get Rashan Gary and Tyler Lancaster back, which should boost their pass rush. The Packers have to get after Stafford, as in the Rams’ last two games, which were ultimately losses, he was sacked seven times.
Historically they have dominated the Rams, covering 7 straight against them.
Rams Packers Betting Pick
As stated earlier in the article, the Packers are tough to beat at home. Until the Rams prove they have their offensive woes figured out, I will ride with the Packers.
Packers Rams Betting Trends
Packers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 Sunday home games.
OVER is 9-2 LA Rams’ last 11 games as the underdog
Rams are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against Green Bay.
Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games