Sep 29, 2019; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Dion Dawkins (73) prepares to block New England Patriots defensive end John Simon (55) in the second quarter at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Patriots Bills Prediction, MNF Prop Picks

Six weeks ago, this looked like a one-sided matchup but in Week 13, the New England Patriots visit to Buffalo on Monday is the week’s best game and an intriguing betting opportunity as well.

The Patriots have won and covered six straight after starting 2-4, while the Bills bounced back nicely last week against the Saints, putting up 31 points on one of the better defenses in the NFL. So how does a bettor approach this point spread, with the superior Bills just a 2.5-point home favorite?

New England has tormented Buffalo here over the years (15-2 SU, 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games at Buffalo. With the Bills just 1-3 against teams with winning records and the Patriots being 21-9 ATS as the underdog in their last 30 games, we believe the Pats can keep this close and we take them +2.5 at FanDuel.

Patriots Bills Prediction: Odds BUF -2.5, Total 47.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Report 

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Why the Patriots will cover the spread

Keep an eye on the weather. If there is snow, this plays into the Patriots game plan ideally. They are run-first on offense and smash-mouth on defense, while the Bills love to run a spread offense and throw the ball downfield. 

The Patriots have been the best team in football over the last six weeks. They are first in EPA per play on offense and defense and have outscored their opponents 211-63 during that stretch. 

Buffalo’s offense has been one of the most disappointing units in the NFL this year. They only rank 16th in offensive DVOA compared to fifth last season, and the Patriots defense has been the best unit in football over the last six weeks. 

Why the Bills will cover the spread

The Bills defense has been the best unit in football this season. They rank first in defensive DVOA, and with the snow in the forecast, they will be able to eliminate the Patriots’ passing game. 

The Bills have been money at home, going 10-3 in their last 13 games. The spread is only 2.5, so this stat is meaningful: The Bills are 9-0 in their last nine divisional games, mopping the floor with their division in the previous two years. 

Patriots Bills Prediction

This is going to be a low-scoring, close game. The spread is high enough to take the Patriots, but the Bills could easily win this game by a point. 

Patriots +2.5

Bills Patriots Props – Anytime TD Picks

Matt Breida +210 @ FanDuel

He has taken over the top RB spot on the Bills

Josh Allen +240 @ FanDuel

It is going to be very windy tonight, so I expect Allen to have to use his legs tonight.

Hunter Henry +400 @ FanDuel

Getting the top red zone target on a team at +400 is a steal

Buffalo New England Betting Trends

Patriots are 15-2 SU (13-3-1 ATS) in their last 17 games at Buffalo.

Patriots have won and covered 6 in a row

Patriots are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games as the underdog

Bills are 9-0 SU in their last 9 divisional games


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