Feb 2, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; San Francisco 49ers receiver Kendrick Bourne (84) runs after a reception against Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward (35) in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Super Bowl 58 Picks, Prop Bets, Betting Trends

Kansas City has the best QB, the best coaches and the best defense yet are underdogs as we set out to make our Super Bowl 58 picks.

Why are the San Francisco 49ers favored? Doubts around the KC offense and their somewhat fortunate turns to reach the game combined with the absolutely explosive nature of the 49ers offense. We think the Chiefs will win if the game is close, but we believe this game could be one-sided and over early.

Super Bowl betting trends observers se a lot of angles pointing to Kansas City, especially as an underdog where KC is 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games when catching points.

Super Bowl 58 Picks: Odds SF -2, Total 47.5 | Matchup Report 

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Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

They are the defending champs, they have superior coaches and best QB. And their defense has been awesome of late, especially in second halves. If that holds up, the 49ers better get off to fast start and hope to hold on.

As a dog, the Chiefs have bitten very hard during the Patrick Mahomes Era, they have covered five straight overall as dogs and 5 straight as playoff dogs. And while the 49ers defense was once highly touted, it has been sloppy and porous lately meaning hard-running Isiah Pacheco should have a big game.

They are also 6-1 ATS in seven recent matchups with the Niners.

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

They were the top power-rated team all season and blew out many contenders. The offense can be electric and varied and they should be able to exploit the Chiefs run defense which has struggled.

San Francisco has won 8 straight playoff games when favored since 2014 and only need to win by 3 here to cover the Super Bowl 58 spread. This game should feel a bit like a 49ers home game and its expected the fans will be 70% or more San Francisco fans.

Even if it feels like a road game, that suits them fine as they are 11-3 SU past 14 games away from SoFi Stadium.

Super Bowl 58 Picks

Backing the 49ers means fading Andy Reid and Mahomes which feels wrong. But the 49ers should be able to run wild on the ground and should win here. We expect a fast start and early scores for San Fran which forces KC to catch up so we also see this game going OVER 47.5. Again, it feels weird to bet Fave and OVER like a big fat square, but those are our Super Bowl 58 picks.

Chiefs 49ers Prop Bets

Brock Purdy OVER 11.5 rushing yards – he doesn’t scramble on purpose but has run for big gains the past few games vs blitz schemes. KC will harass him, he may need to run like hell a few times.

George Kittle OVER 53 receiving yards – same logic on the KC blitz-heavy defense. Quick dumps to Kittle will be part of the scheme here and the reliable TE is always a YAC threat.

Super Bowl 58 Betting Trends

Chiefs are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games as the underdog.

Chiefs have covered 5 straight games and also covered 5 straight playoff games

Chiefs won outright past three games as playoff dog

UNDER is 12-4 past 16 KC games

49ers won 8 straight as playoff chalk dating to 2014

Chiefs 6-1 ATS past 7 games vs 49ers

49ers won 11 of 14 away from SoFi Stadium

49ers just 3-7 ATS in past 10 non-conference games

Chiefs are 9-3 ATS their last 12 non-conference games

Long-term trend? Chiefs have won 70 of their last 88 games