For the past two seasons, Patrick Mahomes opened the season as NFL MVP favorite – this year, its the man he defeated in an epic playoff battle in January.
Josh Allen begins the season as the +650 favorite at Draft Kings (meaning a $100 bet returns a $650 profit) as gets right to work Thursday in Los Angeles against the defending champion Rams. The aforementioned Mahomes is tied for the third betting choice at +900 (9-1 odds) with Chargers QB Justin Herbert. Sneaking into second place is Tom Brady at +850.
The Top 15 choices are all QBs at Draft Kings, with RBs Jonathan Taylor of the Colts and Derrick Henry of the Titans the first position players on the board at 50-1 odds.
The first two WRs on the list are Super Bowl 56 MVP Cooper Kupp of the Rams and Deebo Samuel, both at 60-1. The first defensive player? Micah Parsons in Dallas at 130-1.
NFL MVP Betting Odds as of Sept. 6, 2022
Josh Allen +650
Tom Brady +850
Patrick Mahomes +900
Justin Herbert +900
Aaron Rodgers +1000
Joe Burrow +1200
Russell Eilson +1400
Dak Prescott +1600
Matt Stafford +1600
Jalen Hurts +2000
See all the current betting lines and pocket up to $1,000 in bonus cash when you sign up at Draft Kings.
Archived NFL MVP Betting Odds article from Aug. 25, 2021
Patrick Mahomes will enter the season as the heavy favorite for the MVP award. He is set at +500 according to FanDuel. He has been the favorite entering the season for the last three years. Last year was Mahomes’ most efficient season, throwing for 38 TDs and only six interceptions.
Mahomes will be looking for revenge, after getting beat up in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs offensive line surrendered three sacks and ten quarterback hits. There will be five new starters on the Chiefs offensive line this season.
CAN AARON RODGERS REPEAT?
It must have been a stressful offseason for Packers fans. On draft night, a report came out that Aaron Rodgers was unhappy with the Packers organization. After months of back and forth, Rodgers reported to training camp and will start Week 1 for the Packers.
Rodgers was the best quarterback in the NFL last season no matter what statistic you looked at. He finished first amongst quarterbacks in EPA per play, DVOA and QBR. The Packers offense finished first in DVOA last season, and they won’t miss a beat this season. Rodgers at +1000 is my favorite bet for this award, get it over at Draft Kings today.
CAN 44 YEAR OLD TOM BRADY REALLY WIN MVP?
Tom Brady is heading into his 22nd season, and looks better than ever. The Bucs are returning all 31 players who played more than 200 snaps last season, They are full on running it back. In Brady’s last eight games including playoffs, he had 22 TDs and only four interceptions.
You can argue he was playing the best football of his career during that stretch. Sitting at +1000, he is tied for the second best odds for the MVP award.
Archived 2020 NFL MVP odds updates:
Patrick Mahomes is the overwhelming favorite to win, sitting at +400, according to FanDuel Sportsbook and rightfully so. He won the award back in 2018, and you can make the argument that he is even better than he was a couple of years ago. If he didn’t miss three games in 2019, he would have repeated as MVP.
The Chiefs’ offense will be as electric as it’s ever been. If Mahomes can stay healthy for all 17 games, he will be hoisting the MVP trophy.
Longshot: Carson Wentz +4000
Dec. 17, 2020 Update
Rodgers good value for late MVP odds push?
If you were looking for good value on Patrick Mahomes, you missed your chance. Mahomes was set at +160 before kickoff, now he is slated at -400. So is there any good value left, or is Mahomes going to run away with it? (See the latest MVP lines on dozens of players while pocketing an awesome bonus at Draft Kings or SugarHouse NJ).
Well, the Chiefs play some tough defenses down the stretch. They will face four top 15 DVOA defenses in their remaining five games. Having said that, the Chiefs have proven it doesn’t really matter who they are playing, they are going to put up points. I think it’s safe to say Mahomes is going to hang around the -400 mark for the remaining of the season barring an injury.
Aaron Rodgers is really the only other guy who can make a run at this. The Packers are in the hunt for first place in the NFC, so if he can continue his high level play and take 1st place, he has an argument for MVP. Typically voters like to look for the best narrative, and a 37-year-old Rodgers leading his team to 1st place in the NFC is a better narrative then giving it to Mahomes again.
NFL MVP Betting Odds
Dec. 3, 2020 update
Mahomes scorching play moves lines
First it looked like Russell Wilson was a lock, but a losing skid changed that. Then it was Tom Brady surging with the Bucs and threatening the MVP leaders.
But all the while, slowly gaining momentum and putting up absurd numbers has been Patrick Mahomes. And now in Week 11, with a revenge divisional matchup looming in prime time Sunday Night, the Chiefs whiz kid QB is back atop the NFL MVP odds board.
Draft Kings had Mahomes at +180 this week , just ahead of Wilson at +225 and Aaron Rodgers at +300. Kyler Murray (Hail Mary and all) surged up to +700 with the Cardinals and Seahawks clashing Thursday night.
Nov. 18, 2020 Update
After those front runners, the odds fall all the way to 25-1 with Brady, fellow codger Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Allen in Buffalo all at that number.
Brady climbing MVP board
Russell Wilson remains a strong favorite in the MVP race, but a slew of QBs – some young, some ancient – are making things interesting at the midway point of the season.
Wilson sits at -167, well ahead of Patrick Mahomes at +400. Aaron Rodgers was excellent on Thursday night and remains tight to the pack at +500 in Green Bay.
And check out ageless Tom Brady, surging up to +1300 after a strong run of play in Tampa Bay.
Derrick Henry remains the first non-QB on the board at a distant +6000 (60-1) odds.
Wilson, Russell -167
Mahomes, Patrick +400
Rodgers, Aaron +500
Brady, Tom +1300
Murray, Kyler +2800
Roethlisberger, Ben +3300
Allen, Josh (Bills) +4000
Jackson, Lamar +5000
Henry, Derrick +6000
Six weeks into the 2020 NFL season, Seattle QB Russell Wilson has jumped to the top of the NFL MVP odds board at US sportsbooks. After numerous stellar performances where he has been unshackled to let loose and improvise even more, he has moved from +800 to +300 and now up to -134 as a significant leader at FanDuel.
In the process, he leapfrogged early favorites Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson and legged out a lead over Aaron Rodgers and others.
NFL MVP betting odds as of Oct. 19, 2020
Wilson, Russell -134
Mahomes, Patrick +500
Rodgers, Aaron +600
Allen, Josh (Bills) +1600
Jackson, Lamar +1600
Henry, Derrick +2500
Roethlisberger, Ben +2500
Brady, Tom +3000
Tannehill, Ryan +3300
Murray, Kyler +4000
Watson, Deshaun +4000
Newton, Cam +5000
Sept 14, 2020 Update
Wilson, Russell +300
Jackson, Lamar +500
Mahomes, Patrick +500
Rodgers, Aaron +800
Murray, Kyler +1300
Allen, Josh +2000
Newton, Cam +2000
Prescott, Dak +2000
Roethlisberger, Ben +2800
Brady, Tom +3300
Watson, Deshaun +3300
See odds for all these players at FanDuel.
Sept. 3, 2020
Lamar Jackson will look to become the first back-to-back MVP winner since Peyton Manning in 2008 and 2009. But if you trust the oddsmakers at BetRivers Sportsbook, you’ll look at Patrick Mahomes instead as the NFL MVP odds leader at +400.
Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to their first Championship since 1969, earning Super Bowl MVP honors. The 2018 NFL MVP bounced back from a dislocated knee cap that sidelined him for three weeks. The Chiefs awarded him with the largest contract in professional sports history, a 10-year, $503 million deal.
Can Lamar Jackson repeat?
Earning back-to-back MVPs would be an outstanding accomplishment for the 23-year-old quarterback. The former Louisville standout will have nine of 10 offensive starters back from last season. Jackson should be motivated after a Divisional Round exit in the playoffs last season, especially after having the best record in the NFL.