Week 14 NFL OVER UNDER picks

Chargers @ Chiefs 43 – Play UNDER

True the Chargers offense has been clicking and true the Chiefs have the world’s best QB who can make magic. Also true is the fact KC is 19-6 to the UNDER its past 25 home games while teams come in giving the champs their best shot.

And true that LA has UNDER trends galore (15-6 as a road team, 11-4 within the division, 9-1 in Sunday road games). The Chargers defense is improved and will battle here, the Chiefs will probably get lucky and win 17-16 or something strange.

Bengals @ Cowboys 49.5 – Play OVER

This number has crept down from 50 which perhaps means we are on the square side here. But we play OVER as the Bengals always score in the 30s and usually give up in the 30s.

Cincy is 16-5 to the OVER in 21 recent games while Dallas is playing better with Cooper Rush getting comfortable. He will be more comfortable vs the lame Cincy defense. This could be another 34-31 type of game.

Panthers @ Eagles 46 – Play UNDER

It’s hard to imagine Carolina successfully game-planning for a nasty Eagles defense. And as much as Philly says it won’t take Carolina lightly here as they ride an 8-game win streak, human nature is that is exactly what will happen.

Philly has been a reliable home OVER bet (16-5 past 21 times) but we don’t buy it here. We play UNDER.

—————————–

Archived Week 14 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Dec. 8, 2023

Houston Texans at New York Jets (33): Over

We’ve got a trifecta of overs for ya this week, starting with this comically low total for Zach Wilson’s triumphant return to the starting role in New York. Kidding aside, I could see Wilson at least giving it a strong effort as he tries to redeem himself, which could result in points and/or short fields the other way for Houston.

The Texans have been good for more than 20 points in each of their last five outings and Gang Green surrendered 66 in back-to-back weeks to finish November.

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens (40): Over

The Ravens had scored more than 30 points in five straight games prior to putting up 20 in Week 12. Now they’re coming off their bye, and facing a hungry team that has put up 73 the last two weeks. This number is stupid-low.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (46.5): Over

Miami is favored by 13 points and has scored 79 the last two weeks on the road. The defense has been good but this should be a blowout which could also lead to some garbage-time points for Tennessee. It’ll hit the 50s.

——————-

Archived Week 14 NFL OVER UNDER picks article from Dec. 9, 2022

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (51.5): OVER

This just feels like a shootout waiting to happen. The Vikings have scored 27-plus points in three of their last four, Detroit usually battles hard at home and the Lions still have the worst scoring defense in the NFL.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (46): UNDER

The Browns defense has surrendered just 31 points the last two weeks, and the Cincinnati defense is solid as well. This feels like a 23-17-type game.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (52.5): UNDER

The Chargers haven’t scored more than 27 points in a game since Week 5 and the Dolphins have allowed 17 or fewer in two of their last three outings. I also think both teams might be tight and conservative in a big spotlight.

—-

Archived Week 14 OVER UNDER picks article from Dec. 9, 2021

2021 RECORD: 27-30

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 43.5

This may be inflated by the fact these teams combined for 56 points when they last met, but a lot has changed since then. The Titans offense is now extremely shorthanded, with Derrick Henry’s injury playing a particularly large role. The Jaguars have averaged just 10.6 points per game the last six weeks, while the Titans have scored just 13 in each of the last two weeks. This one isn’t likely to hit the 40s.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 47.5

This one is another pretty clear-cut under target. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is always a risk in that respect, but the sample is no longer small with that offense being off. Not only have the Chiefs given up just 11.2 points per game the last five weeks, but the offense has failed to score 23 points in five of their last six outings. They’re an under machine. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been held to 16 or fewer points in four of their last five.

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets: 42.5

This one is oddly low to me. Yes, the Saints aren’t their old selves and the Jets suck, but New Orleans might get Alvin Kamara back for a matchup with the league’s worst scoring defense, and Gang Green has 17 or more points in six consecutive games. The offense isn’t really that bad on paper, so I’d be expecting a 28-17-type game at the very least here.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 43

Unders aren’t as fun as overs, but it looks like there’s some good under value this week. Another example comes here. Each of the last four Ravens games have contained fewer than 40 points, while each of the last two Browns games have contained fewer than 30. Keep it simple.

Archived NFL Week 14 OVER UNDER picks article from Dec. 12, 2020

Last week’s record: 26-23-2

HOUSTON TEXANS AT CHICAGO BEARS (45.5)

Chicago’s defense has fallen off a cliff with 75 points allowed the last two weeks, and Deshaun Watson and Co. have scored at least 27 in five of their last eight games. The Bears running game has also suddenly come alive, and Houston has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Both teams should put up 24-plus points in this one.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (49)

It’s scary to chase the under with the Chiefs, but their offense hasn’t been quite as explosive as usual the last few weeks and a road game against the league’s No. 2-ranked scoring defense might not be the doctor ordered. Miami has surrendered just 20 total points the last three weeks and hasn’t given up more than 21 since early-November, and the Dolphins also haven’t scored more than 20 points in three consecutive outings. I’d watch for an under in a 24-20-type game here.

TENNESSEE TITANS AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (53)

This might seem high, but the Jags give up 27 or so points on basically a weekly basis and Derrick Henry is likely to bounce back for a Tennessee team that has still scored 30-plus in three consecutive games. The Jacksonville offense has also been respectful of late aside from a blip against Pittsburgh. These teams combined for 63 points in their last meeting and should be in that range again here.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT BUFFALO BILLS (46.5)

I don’t expect this one to fly over the total by a massive margin, but I still think there’s some value associated with the over. The Steelers offense is too talented to score fewer than 20 points for a third consecutive week, and the rolling Buffalo offense is averaging 33.8 points per game the last four weeks. With the Steelers’ defense shorthanded, both teams could push the 30 mark here.