QUOTE: “Never memorize what you can look up in books.” -- Albert Einstein
THE BIG TRADE
The Patriots turned a player who only had 16 games left his New England career into a first-round pick in 2011. They knew they would receive a compensatory third-rounder for Richard Seymour as they had no intention of re-signing him after the season. So instead of settling for a third, the Pats made the move now and received a future first-round pick.
I know Raiders fans will try to put a positive spin on this move, but what can it be? Seymour doesn’t have a contract after this season, so he has to be franchised. Why else pay a future one? Is Seymour’s talent level worthy of a first-round pick? Yes and no. Yes, there are times he can be a dominating player, but more often than not, he’s not active. This trade makes it clear that knowing when to move an older player early is something former 49ers coach Bill Walsh mastered and passed on to Bill Belichick.
APSeymour is headed to Oakland, but how long will he be there for?
I love this move for New England since it gets a pick that might be very high in 2011, and that rookie class might have some form of wage scale depending on upcoming collective bargaining talks. That pick, as one high-level NFL executive told me Sunday, might be the replacement for Tom Brady down the line. Now New England will focus its efforts on re-signing Vince Wilfork, who is an essential player in their defensive front. With sixth-round pick Myron Pyror playing well (even getting calls from other teams checking his availability) and second-round pick Ron Brace also playing well, the Patriots seem set on their defensive line. I’m sure they’ll make a few more calls to Kevin Carter to see if he’s finally willing to come out of retirement.
As for the Hotel faithful, Seymour does bring value if the Raiders can get him to play hard every play, something that didn’t always happen in New England. Maybe the coaches or owner will find that magic touch and bring his level of play to a higher plane. It shouldn’t surprise objective fans in the NFL that, according to people close to Seymour that I talked to, he’s less than pleased to be heading west. He never expected this move, which is a fair reaction, not a necessarily a negative reaction about Oakland. Seymour is still talented and can still be effective, but he’s very inconsistent. He’s a flash player, and if you grade the flashes, he can be disruptive, but there are times when he’s not a factor on the field.
For this move to work, Seymour has to play at a high level, and the Raiders must re-sign him. Giving up a one for a player for potentially only one year is not a good move, even in the eyes of diehard Raiders fans. At first, this deal was being framed around a two in 2010, but it moved to a one because the Raiders wanted to keep their draft alive next year.
Have the Raiders improved their team? On paper, clearly yes. Have they also taken a risky move? Again yes, and the risk is twofold -- in the contract and in getting Seymour to play at his Pro Bowl level full time.
Follow me on Twitter: michaelombardi
Mike:
I was looking forwrad to your analysiis given your perspective on the Raiders. While I certainly applaud the long-term benefits for the Patriots, how much do you see this impacting the Patriots 2009 Super Bowl aspirations? Does the defense as currently constituted have enough firepower to win, even with a prolific offense carrying it?
Thanks again for the great work.
So basically, what you are inferring is that this will go over as well as when Randy Moss was traded to the Raiders? Yeah, I think 99% of football fans feel this way. But don't you feel that if the Raiders sign him to a long contract with a big signing bonus, that he'll just half-heart it and collect his money? Why not just have him play out the season where he'll try to prove to other teams that he's not washed-up, and give considerable effort - and then franchise him.
I think the biggest mistake would be to do what other losing culture teams like the Lions, Browns, and Bengals do - and give a star player a big contract - thus ensuring him to half-heart it to retirement.
I agree both sides are taking a risk and that is okay.
The downside for the Patriots is that they do not have, or find, a replacement (IMO they are thinking Carter for one year pretty much an equal replacement) and suffer this year. Next year moot as they were not going to resign him. Upside - no negative impact this year, their defense with him for last 2 -3 years is what has cost them as they could not stop opposing teams at crucial times so how does kepping him change that? - and a very high #1 in slotted 2011.
Raiders - Downside - a lot - refuses to go - plays mediocre for 1 year - thye then lose him and have give up a very high #1 in 2011. Upside - ??? - plays well. They improve dramatically and resign him for another couple years at decent salary.
I do not see the possible Oakland upside as more probable than the downside nor does it come close to outweighing the downside IMO.Upside for Pats way higher and more probable than downside.
Thoughts?
Gotta hand it to you Lombardi, droppin' Belichik & Walsh's name in the same article. you must be in heaven! but let's not forget the Pittsburgh Steelers, they've been making these kind of personnel decisions longer than your Bill Buddies.
This is like watching a bad fantasy football trade involving a very experienced owner and a complete moron. As a huge NFL fan, this deal makes me ill.
I'm not a Raider fan or Raider hater. In fact, I greatly appreciate what Al Davis and the Raiders have brought to the NFL. I applaud Davis for attempting to make a move that he believes will help his team...but, that's just the problem -- he no longer has any sense of reality.
Raider fans who support this trade need to get a clue. This is one of the most ridiculous trades in NFL history.
Once again, Mr. Davis using his Oakland Raiders like a 12 yr. old playing franchise mode on Madden Football. His last few trades have been neurotic and bombshells. The Raiders had a chance to upgrade their d-line in the draft and passed on it. Instead they gave the Patriots Ron Brace in the draft, and then Derrick Burgess for no compensation. And last I checked they also took Randy Moss from us for less than market value. At the end of the day, I'm still a Raiderfan just not an Al fan.It is plain to see Mr.Davis is being took by Belichek and NE, at every transaction.
You have to wonder just how dumb you can be and still get a job in an NFL front office. This is a guy who had issues in NE, where malcontents go to be reborn. Somehow the Raiders think he will give 100% for them? Unreal. And the terms. A number one for a guy in his contract year? Who will have to be franchised, with all the headaches that brings? And we can be pretty sure that a Raiders number one will be top ten at least.
Not fair to lump Seymour in with the likes of Javon Walker and others the Raiders traded for. Seymour is a stud. He's a proven big game player who is at his best when the stakes are highest.
I kind of disagree with painting Seymour as a malcontent that needs to be kept motivated. He's been hurt; yes, but when healthy he wins his match ups and is a disruptive force.
Why are people so into analyzing this trade? There are so many ifs that this trade engenders that no real analysis can take place until at least after the 2011 draft.
Why do people read Michael Lombardi - he got fired from every job that he held including the one that he worked for free.
Let it go Lombardi, they dumped you because you were a snitch and talked out of bothe sides of your mouth, let it go.
You were so ticked off that after no other NFL team would give you the time of day, you offered your services to the Denver Broncoo's FOR FREE to try and get back at old Al. Denver took you in for a day picked your brain and kicked you to the curb.
Iread an article by a RESPECTED NFL person that STILL IS ABLE TO WORK IN THE NFL that told it just like it is, great trade for the Raiders and good for New England.
The guy wrote that all the negative that you hear is being spread by the jealous people that were floored by the bluckbuster trade that Mr. Davis pulled out of his hat.
You look the fool Lombardi when you write about the Raiders, and lets get real. Years from now NFL History will not even speak your name or know that you were alive, Mr Davis on the other hand is NFL History,
I like this site but seldom read your work, I like the others on this site that do not let their bias and hurt feelings to show in their work, but I just had to hit the site today to collect my bet from a friend after proving you would have an article as a main item knocking the move, I won.
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Sep 07, 2009
11:55 AM
What other options were available to the Raiders? They desperately needed a defesnive end who can pressure the QB and stop the run. I don't believe he will do a Randy Moss given that he's young enough for one last big contract.