They’re not superstars, but their teams will depend on them. Matt Bowen
As we inch closer to the start of training camps next month, who are the players you should keep an eye on? The players who could have breakout seasons for their respective clubs?
Today, let’s look at five on the offensive side of the football who could surprise us in 2009 with their production.
1. Kyle Orton, QB, Denver
APKyle Orton
I’ll be the first to admit that I was tough on Orton during his tenure in Chicago, but let’s be honest: He wasn’t the right fit for an offense that’s predicated on running the ball and using play action to expose defensive secondaries down the field. But Orton steps into Josh McDaniel’s new offensive system in Denver, where he has a big-time WR in Brandon Marshall, plus some talent in the backfield in rookie Knowshon Moreno — someone who can be an excellent dual-threat back at this level.
Orton operates best when he’s in the shotgun, when he has time to throw and when the offense requires him to make short-to-intermediate passes to an area on the field. It worked for Matt Cassel last season in New England, and it should work for Orton in ’09. Remember, the Broncos brought in Orton for a reason — to run this exact system.
2. Patrick Crayton, WR, Dallas
I have always liked Crayton’s game at the wide receiver position, and with the departure of Terrell Owens, I expect him to play a major role in the passing game for the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo. Yes, we can all agree that Romo’s No. 1 target in any down-and-distance situation will be TE Jason Witten, but the ‘Boys still need a receiver who can make plays down the field on first and second downs.
Crayton averaged more than 14 yards a catch in ’08, and although WR Miles Austin might be the ultimate deep threat for this Cowboys team, he’s still a No. 3. Crayton should fit nicely into the No. 2 role and might even be more productive by season’s end than expected No. 1 Roy Williams.
3. Ladell Betts, RB, Washington
APLadell Betts
The Redskins can’t afford to run Clinton Portis into the ground again this season, and they can’t afford to stall on offense again in the second half of the season. For those reasons, I expect Betts to carry a more prominent role in the offense and share more of the workload in the backfield.
He has a different style than Portis, and although he doesn’t have the exact burst and top-line speed of Portis, he can break tackles and is a valuable receiver out of the backfield. We’ve heard the coaching staff has been high on Betts all offseason, and I don’t see why that would change come training camp. He should be a player in the fall and see his share of touches if this Redskins’ team wants to make any sort of playoff push come late November and early December.
4. Greg Olsen, TE, Chicago
It’s hard not to focus on the tight end position in Chicago, especially when you talk to Bears GM Jerry Angelo, who’s confident Olsen will produce in offensive coordinator Ron Turner’s scheme with Jay Cutler now at quarterback. If the Bears don’t make any last-minute adjustments at WR — which seems to look more probable with every day that passes — I expect Olsen to be the type of target for Cutler that Witten is for Romo in Dallas.
Turner does get creative with Olsen, especially when he and fellow TE Desmond Clark are on the field at the same time. Olsen has the athletic ability to line up removed from the formation on the backside of 3x1 sets, matched up against a corner or a safety on an island — where he can use his body to shield defenders and run inside breaking routes. He should and will be one of the featured attractions in this offense and could have a big season.
5. Joey Galloway, WR, New England
APJoey Galloway
I like the idea of Galloway in New England because it allows the Patriots to be even more creative on offense -- and with the return of QB Tom Brady, the former Buc should have a major effect on this entire unit. At this level, it’s all about match-ups when it comes to running a successful passing game — and Galloway will not only win most of those, he will allow New England to feature three wide receivers, counting Randy Moss and Wes Welker, with speed on the field at all times. Team will have to counter with sub packages, and this is when New England is at its best in both the run and pass.
Plus, Galloway is still a deep-ball guy — and a good one. Any time you have a player on the field who can change the outcome of a ballgame with one play, he’s worth every dollar spent. Don’t expect huge numbers from Galloway, but do expect him to be the difference in a couple of victories for the Pats this season.
Finally, someone who isn't putting the whole Skins franchise on CP's shoulders... That guy is worn down and will not have the same burst after week 6 if they ride him again,
Who MAY surprise me? Come on, Matt. I want conviction--tell me these guys WILL surprise me!
Orton will be much better in McDaniels system in Denver.
Olsen, on the other hand had best not drop any balls. Cutler will point the finger, hollar and ignore him if he does. Reign him on so he doesn't try for the home run every play? Hah!
The biggest problem I see with Chicago can be Cutler and his immature self-centered actions on the field. Worst possible scenario would be if Orton and Denver end up with a better record than him and the Bears. Every week that Denver has a better record or Orton does better than him, Cutler will become worse by trying to hit the big ESPN Highlight every play. That is Cutler's nature, unfortunately. Look at the stats, Lots of yards, few points. Most turnovers in the Red Zone and sitting and pouting by himself instead of leading his team.
Galloway and Moss are every DB's biggest fear this year. Ouch. Who do you double? Oh no Watson just burned you! He he he I love it.
Bowen just wrote the best fantasy football article on the site all year. Hopefully Tipper didn't spend his whole check on Goose in Vegas last weekend. Comparing Olsen to Witten is just a bit of a stretch though...
Gotta agree that Olson could have a breakout season, but I do worry that Cutler will try and chuck it down the field to D Hes all of the time... which usually equals a dropped pass.
Crayton, huh? I am sort of banking on Roy Boy having a monster year, but I see your point...
Witten, however, will continue to dominate....
Orton will be without Marshall, don't you guys read your own headlines when you write an article? This huge perception of Orton as a game manager is a bunch of hooey. His turnover percentage (interceptions and fumbles lost) per attempt is higher than Cutler's.
NECutlerFan-
You really think the Broncos are going to let go of Marshall? Why, because he said he didn't like the city after drinking 15 beers and getting pulled over for a DUI?
Please. That guy ain't going anywhere.
Like the list Matt, not sold on Crayton, but I like this list.
Have to agree that Marshall isn't going anywhere... who would trade for this headache and risk losing him to yet another suspension?
Great article I found that gives stats and facts: it is interesting.
Since Kyle Orton is forever going to be compared to the quarterback he is taking over for in Denver, Jay Cutler, I thought it would be appropriate to compare their numbers from last season and try to decide how Orton would fair going into his first year with the Broncos.
Last year for the Bears (9-7), Orton played in 15 games compiling 18 Touchdowns, 12 picks, threw for almost 3,000 yards, a QB rating of 79.6, and completed 59 percent of his throws. Okay, admittedly those numbers are not outstanding but they are by no means horrible.
When you look at these numbers, you need to keep a couple things in mind.
First off his leading receiver in catches, was a rookie running back. Taking nothing away from Matt Forte, who had an amazing rookie season, a quarterback's go to receiver should never have to be a rookie running back.
Second, his leading receiver in yards was Devin Hester, who wasn't used as a receiver until his second season in the league (2007). Hester was converted from solely a kick/punt returner to wide out mainly because the Bears had no better options to run out there to catch balls.
He improved last year as a receiver but by no means should be a number one receiver in any offense.
Jay Cutler on the other hand, was throwing to a Pro Bowl receiver in Brandon Marshall and rookie sensation Eddie Royal. Not to mention tight end, Tony Scheffler, who caught over 600 yards and had 3 touchdowns.
Cutler's numbers: 25 touchdowns, 18 picks, over 4,500 yards, a QB rating of 86 and a completion percentage of 62. Immediately, the only stat that is considerably better than Orton is the yards.
But you have to remember the Broncos' defense was constantly putting the offense in a position where Cutler had to pass, pass, pass. Add in the fact that every Broncos running back that stepped on the field got hurt, its no wonder Cutler was able to pile up the yards.
For all these extra yards Cutler threw for, he only managed seven more touchdown passes than Orton. In fact if you break down their numbers further, Cutler averaged a touchdown every 24 attempts.
Orton, every 26. This tells us that if Orton were to throw as many attempts as Cutler, their numbers, touchdown to interception ratio, would have been very comparable.
And all this comes with Cutler throwing to SUBSTANTIALLY better receivers! There is just simply no arguing that. Cutler had a clear cut No. 1, a No. 2 and a decent tight end. Orton was chucking the ball to a bunch of No. 3's and a couple good tight ends!
I agree about Olsen. With Cutler there and a lack of big time WR's I can see him getting a ton of targets.
I think Miles Austin is more likely to breakout than Crayton.
Hi Matt -- way to give props to fellow Hawkeye, Ladell Betts!!! ... very underrated and I think if given a chance for a larger role in an offense, he'd surprise people. He's was a bruiser @ Iowa and still in the NFL - probably a big reason he's been in the league going on 9 years.
GO HAWKS!!!
If you add fumbles lost to the equation, Orton does have a higher career turnover percentage. However, I think you have to keep in mind the fact that Orton was playing behind a line that gave up close to 30 sacks in both of Orton's full (close to full) seasons. Cutler played behind the leagues best O-line last year (tied for best). When he faced the same number of sacks as Orton (2007) he dropped the ball 11 times with 4 losses. I think it is fair to say that the fumbles lost stat falls on more than the QB.
Here is the stat you can't blame on anyone but the QB, Cutler has had a higher interception percentage than Orton every year he has played in the NFL. And that is with a far superior line.
Cutler Orton
2008 2.9 2.4
2007 3.0 2.5
2006 3.7 no snaps
2005 college 2.4
I'm not going to pretend Orton will be as fun to watch as Cutler was, but I think people are giving Cutler too much credit, and giving Orton too little. It should be a fun contest to keep track of for a few years.
Nice article Matt, it was nice to see a MSM member look at Orton with an open mind.
Nice comments about Cutler and Orton MiamiMike. Agreed! Also, you missed the fact that Denver had an O-Line, "maybe the best Tackles in football", and Chicago did not have anything close to an OL. Not to mention the win/loss career record. You also missed the part about Cutler and his much better pouting abilities vs. Orton who does not seem to have any Ego, just a team concept..... That is going to be a huge change in Denver alone! the number one thing that will stand in Denver's way is their "toughest schedule in league" vs a milktoast schedule for Chicago!
Great article I found that gives stats and facts: it is interesting.
Since Kyle Orton is forever going to be compared to the quarterback he is taking over for in Denver, Jay Cutler, I thought it would be appropriate to compare their numbers from last season and try to decide how Orton would fair going into his first year with the Broncos.
Last year for the Bears (9-7), Orton played in 15 games compiling 18 Touchdowns, 12 picks, threw for almost 3,000 yards, a QB rating of 79.6, and completed 59 percent of his throws. Okay, admittedly those numbers are not outstanding but they are by no means horrible.
When you look at these numbers, you need to keep a couple things in mind.
First off his leading receiver in catches, was a rookie running back. Taking nothing away from Matt Forte, who had an amazing rookie season, a quarterback's go to receiver should never have to be a rookie running back.
Second, his leading receiver in yards was Devin Hester, who wasn't used as a receiver until his second season in the league (2007). Hester was converted from solely a kick/punt returner to wide out mainly because the Bears had no better options to run out there to catch balls.
He improved last year as a receiver but by no means should be a number one receiver in any offense.
Jay Cutler on the other hand, was throwing to a Pro Bowl receiver in Brandon Marshall and rookie sensation Eddie Royal. Not to mention tight end, Tony Scheffler, who caught over 600 yards and had 3 touchdowns.
Cutler's numbers: 25 touchdowns, 18 picks, over 4,500 yards, a QB rating of 86 and a completion percentage of 62. Immediately, the only stat that is considerably better than Orton is the yards.
But you have to remember the Broncos' defense was constantly putting the offense in a position where Cutler had to pass, pass, pass. Add in the fact that every Broncos running back that stepped on the field got hurt, its no wonder Cutler was able to pile up the yards.
For all these extra yards Cutler threw for, he only managed seven more touchdown passes than Orton. In fact if you break down their numbers further, Cutler averaged a touchdown every 24 attempts.
Orton, every 26. This tells us that if Orton were to throw as many attempts as Cutler, their numbers, touchdown to interception ratio, would have been very comparable.
And all this comes with Cutler throwing to SUBSTANTIALLY better receivers! There is just simply no arguing that. Cutler had a clear cut No. 1, a No. 2 and a decent tight end. Orton was chucking the ball to a bunch of No. 3's and a couple good tight ends!
Regarding Kyle Orton, he should do "ok" in Denver's short-medium passing game. Regarding comparisons to Cutler...
* Denver had one of the league's worst defenses in 2008. Cutler was forced to throw the ball WAY too much.
* Even after his ankle healed, Kyle Orton was not the QB in the second half of 2008 that he was in the first half. Look at his "performances" against the Packers and Saints in Chicago. Two lousy defenses, two lousy performances by Orton. Teams adjusted and he struggled to "adjust" back
Sorry CDS and Miami Mike - I think you're forgetting..
* Who was Brandon Marshall before the ascension of Jay Cutler? Answer? A non-descript 4th round draft pick who had an "ok" rookie season. Royal? Caught a TON of passes as a rookie, but "sensation" is more than overblown - 90 receptions, but failed to gain 1,000 receiving? Good? Yes. Sensational? No.
* Escapability. The Denver oline had an extremely mobile QB to block for in Jay Cutler. They won't have that in Kyle Orton. Orton WILL benefit from McDaniel's short passing attack, but he won't be able to save the offensive line in the same fashion that Cutler did. Also...
* Few QB's are less effective downfield than Kyle Orton. He completed 1 pass that traveled over 30 yards in the are in 2008. ONE. Is that all the blame of the WR's? Hardly - Marshall won't have deadly accurate laser beams thrown to him anymore.
* The Bronco TE's aren't as talented as Greg Olsen and Dez Clark. This isn't remotely debatable.
* The Broncos have one of the league's least talented rosters "top to bottom." Their defense looks WORSE on paper now than it did in 2008, when it was a league-wide laughing stock. It's an awful lot to ask of a 3rd year QB to carry team with no real running game and no defense.
* The Bear WR corps IS a question mark, because of it's lack of experience. Cutler carried Marshall to greatness beginning in 2007 and helped make a "star" out of an "ok" receiver in Eddie Royal in '08. My money is on him doing the same for his friend from Vanderbilt Earl Bennett, rookies Juaquin Iglesias and Johnny Knox...not to mention Devin Hester, whom Kyle Orton missed deep downfield AT LEAST 11 times in 2008.
Nice FF info! It has me thinking about scenarios I wasn't looking at before.
I'm not sure how the pats keep doing it but Galloway has to be the biggest WR sleeper this season. How do you join the most prolific prolific WR tandem and not draw the weakest DB? If Galloway established chemistry with Tom early it will be a long season for any backfield.
NECutlerFan: "His turnover percentage (interceptions and fumbles lost) per attempt is higher than Cutler's. "
You're right. Barely.
ATT INT Fumbles Lost Turnover ratio
Orton 2008 465 12 3 3.23%
Orton Career 913 27 5 3.50%
Cutler 2008 616 18 2 3.25%
Cutler Career 1220 37 5 3.44%
.06% career difference. I'm not enough of an NFL statistician to say, but I'd say that was pretty close to being a statistically insignificant difference (not to mention the differences in the quality of scheme and personnel Cutler played with, vs. Orton).
What I did find interesting in investigating what you wrote is that Cutler was lucky enough to recover his own fumbles more often. Over their careers, Cutler has fumbled 16 times, recovered 5; Orton has fumbled only 10 times, and lost 5. If you're going to get into the nitty gritty, it certainly does seem like Cutler is more careless with the ball. We'll see how well he does when he doesn't have an o-line to protect his fumble-itis.
OK to 'good not great' is what I expect as well from Orton. Most of my optimism centers around Orton moving from windy Chicago to Denver, learning from Tom Brady's old coach, setting up in the shotgun more often like he did at Purdue, and having the two Ryan's keeping his jersey clean(er). I say clean(er), because I think he will make the line look slightly more human as he has nowhere near the scrambling abilities Cutler possesses.
I think Orton will be up and down as he gets comfortable over the first half of the season. The real test will be the second half of the season, does he pick it up or does he level off short of good enough. As a Bronco fan I hold my strongest hope at this point for how Tom Brandstater turns out in a couple of years.
As far as deep balls go Cutler was hardly the king of consistent accurate touch when he threw deep. You can look at Royal's amazing grab of a deep pass in the Brown's game from last year, Cutler threw inside to Royal sprinting down the sideline, the pass had pick written all over it, luckily Royal looked the CB outside, and ducked under for the long reception and YAC. This theory that Cutler came up with, that he had made Marshall and Royal what they were is a ridiculous insult to both. Marshall's size at 6'4.5" 230 makes him a dangerous possession receiver who can get big YAC even though he isn't going to outrun anybody, admittedly his numbers will go down without Cutler locking on to him, but that doesn't make him less valuable, just less used. Royal runs routes better than a lot of vets, and he did so as a rookie. A rookie WR who can break into a pretty impressive WR corp and put up 90 catches is nothing to scoff at.
Unfortunately Orton will be relying heavily on the Defense picking up a new system in short order. Last year the Broncos biggest defensive weakness was the secondary as they ran through safety's at nearly the rate they ran through RB's. The signing of an admittedly slowing, but I think still strong Dawkins along with Goodman went a long way towards sealing up the secondary, both from passes and deep penetrating runs. We'll see how effective the brand new line does though. That has to be the biggest question mark for the team. How well can the front seven gel and stand against some very tough teams this year?
As for Cutler being forced to throw too much, the Bronco's were opening games throwing like crazy, the problem more often than not was Cutler's reluctance to run through progressions or throw away from double and triple teams on Marshall. It is well known that the D did Cutler few favors, but what is less remembered is all of the short fields Cutler left the Defense with. This is not to say that Cutler will not progress, but as he stands right now, he has shown a flaw he needs to correct to be an elite QB, at least in my book.
I admit my knowledge of Orton's performance last year is very limited, but if I remember correctly wasn't his injury a high ankle sprain? Those take 3-4 months to heal. I think he was playing injured.
I really haven't paid any attention to Olsen or Clark (not since he left Denver), but Scheffler and Graham are no slouch's. If Cutler had been saddled with Chicago's wideouts and Denver's own TEs I would expect them to have the kind of numbers Olsen and Clark put up. But clearly that is all speculation.
If Cutler doesn't fold under the pressure and stays on course, he'll make Olson a star. That's a match made in heaven.
Sorry, I meant that Cutler has fumbled 16 times and lost 5, while Orton has fumbled only 10 times and lost 5.
Totally agree on Galloway, and how about another new Patriot, Fred Taylor? I think both those moves were pure Belichik genius.
I also think Laverneus Coles has a huge year in Cincy. Same for Willie Parker in Pittsburgh.
Biggest problem for Marshall is he has no leverage. The Broncos can't get good value for him (off-field issues, drinking, etc...) and his contract isn't up for 3 years. They can afford to let him sit out for a year and cool off and they still will be better off than if they trade him for junk.
* Before Royal arrived in Denver, it's disengenuous to suggest that the Broncos had a "great" receiving corps. They had one great receiver - Marshall - and a bunch of has-been's and journeyman, hence the need to draft Royal.
* Speaking of Royal, he's a decent route runner and has good hands, but, again, he wasn't close to being a great receiver in 2008. When you catch 90 passes, and fail to gain 1,000 receiving yards, that's NOT the sign of a great receiver. Rather, it's a sign that he's he can't create "RAC" and lacks explosion and isn't as elusive as many believe.
* Nothing could be more inane than trying to play "revisionist historian" and dismiss Cutler's exceptional "deep ball" accuracy by pointing out one acrobatic catch made by a receiver - heck, Marty Booker, an over-the-hill has-been, made the catch of the year for the Bears in Detroit. No receiver had a better catch in 2008. Does it matter? No. Cutler is very accurate deep - one thing he lacked in Denver was a receiver like a Devin Hester - i.e. someone with true elite explosiveness deep. Also...
* Cutler is very effective on third downs and in the 4th quarter. Kyle Orton? Lousy on third downs and impotent in the 4th quarter.
* We can't and don't know how much of a "guru" McDaniels is. He worked for the best football mind in the world in New England. We see how former Patriot assistants have faired as head coaches - Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel - and we see that Bellichek assistants on either side of the ball may be little more than gofer's and admin assistants. Yes, McDaniel's spread offense IS much more conducive to Orton's game than Ron Turner and the Bears' - but let' s not assume that McDaniels is, like his predecessors from the failed Bellichek "coaching tree", anything more than a "hanger-on." He's already gotten off to an embarassing, abysmal start in Denver, so there's little point in being overly optimistic - especially in year one.
* Regarding pass blocking, go back and look at tapes of Cutler escaping pressure a year ago - Orton lacks that dimension. His presence will put ALOT more pressure on the "Ryan's" than they saw in 2008.
Isn't it funny that Cutler was Mr. All World QB bwhen he was with Denver but now that he's traded he was a "headache" and "spoiled brat" because management TOLD YOU he was. I saw alot of Denver games and never saw him point any fingers at anyone so nice way to make things up.
Secondly, "All World Rookie WR Eddie Royal"...huh? This guy was made because he had a QB like Cutler throwing him the ball. I know a Denver fan is going to argue otherwise but I expect that because you're defending your team.
Thirdly, how is it when Orton was with the Bears, the Bears needed to address the QB position? Not once was anything said about him not being in the right system. NOT ONCE. Let Orton kill you with his incredible WR screen pass. The guy can't throw deep for the life of him and if you don't believe me, look at video vs CAR when he missed a wide open Booker streaking down the side line or better yet look at the video vs NO when he had Hester open all game and couldn't even throw the ball anywhere near him.
I will wait for the season to say whethere or not it was the QB throwing the ball or the WR's catching them. 90% of the time it's the QB throwing the ball so I feel like good about my chances with the Bears WR core.
fact is that orton cant make all the throws,he throws a inaccurate deep ball(bears fans been knowing about this deep ball problem since the start of training camp because he was having trouble throwing it in training camp).
there a reason why matt forte got so many catches because he couldn't make the deep throw and was conservative but when you put him in those 3rd and long situation and play that require him to throw deep it was alway INT.mostly all his ball came on deep inaccurate balls
Ahmad Bradshaw Giants has paid his dues and now moves up to number 2 on the depth chart, has home run potential and with the added touches his numbers will get a bump up. Another bonus is Jacobs is expected to miss time at some point during the season and/or the team will look to limit his workload.
Mike Walker Jaguars is a beast in the mold of Brandon Marshall actually from the same school, drafted higher, and considered the better prospect. However injuries have stalled his career to date but now healthy (keep fingers crossed) a revamped o-line to give Garrard more protection and established threat Holt should all help Walker register a blip on the radar screen.
Josh Morgan 49ers is the real deal and Crabtree better bring rocks in his pockets if he wants to take his starting spot.
Chaz Schilens Raiders Darius who? now if Russell can reach double digits in completions per game.
Jay Cutler Bears most expect the change in talent and offensive philosophy to hurt Cutler`s numbers and they might but I`m not buying into the theory that he`s a bad fantasy play.
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Jun 30, 2009
05:20 PM
Galloway doesn't have a track record of playing every game. Reps he gets keept he football away from Moss and Welker. Please throw to him!
Olson should be awesome. It might be very similar to what Dallas does on offense with Witten. A lot of ways to get the ball to one person.
I'm a big fan of Ladell Betts but is there is much left? He got injured and his main style is to run people over, hard to do that hurt. His career season he was on my FF team, let's hope he finds those reps and yards in his game again.
Don't know about Dallas, their star wideout gets no YAC and scares nobody. The other guys always had Owens taking away the attention of safeties. Doubtful anyone does that enough now to scare a DC into having to show the hand before the snap. Muddied reads don't help QB ratings, protections, or WR adjustment.
Orton is another player whose game is appreciated, he does more with smarts and guts than with his arm. Merrimen may welcome him with some new sack dance on his return to AFC West football. Is there enough in his arm to keep blitzing teams off him?