We are officially rolling. It’s been more than a month since we’ve had a losing week and we are now into the 60 percent pick echelon. That’s right, we’ve picked at the same rate as the pros over a 10-week period, no small sample size. Now that we’re rolling, we’re well into the black and will be looking to build on that even more in the coming weeks. Let’s recap our super successful Week 10.
LOSS: Panthers +4 at Steelers (-115): Steelers 52, Panthers 21.
This one got away from us in a hurry on Thursday Night Football. Everyone expected this to be a competitive game between two solid teams, but Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense really took things to another level, especially in the first half. The under was dead by halftime and it was quickly apparent Pittsburgh wasn’t going to give Carolina even a prayer down the stretch.
It happens sometimes and we can’t really predict an offensive performance like we saw Thursday Night. When something like that does happen, you just have to hope it works in your favor. It didn’t this week, but that’s about all that didn’t in an otherwise successful week of picks. Total win: $0.
WIN: Redskins +135 at Buccaneers: Redskins 16, Buccaneers 3.
This line actually somehow moved all the way up to +150 by kick off, but Washington proved why this was another great road underdog pick. Remember, we are now 3-for-3 in picking road underdogs on the money line over the past two weeks. Frankly, this was a gross game; it was 6-3 at half time.
Things got interesting in the second half and honestly, Tampa outplayed Washington for most of the afternoon. Ryan Fitzpatrick and company had more than 400 yards of total offense, but just three points to show for it, because they turned over the ball at the most critical points in the game. After betting against the Redskins successfully last Sunday, we got help from them in the other direction. Total win: $11.75.
WIN: Cardinals +17 at Chiefs (-110): Chiefs 26, Cardinals 14.
This is the second time this season we were handed a three-score spread and took it. I don’t think it’s a coincidence it’s also the second time we’ve won that bet. No matter how bad one team and how good the other, in the NFL 17 points is too much to ignore and Arizona came through for us on Sunday.
If you made this pick like I did, you had a mini heart attack at the end of the game when the Chiefs came up with an interception and started running it the other way. It came very close to turning into a debilitating pick six to push the deficit to 19, but they were pushed out of bounds a couple dozen yards before reaching pay dirt. We’ll thank our lucky stars for that one and move on to the next one. Total win: $7.60.
WIN: Seahawks +10 at Rams (-110): Rams 36, Seahawks 31.
The only dangerous part about this bet was how much worse Seattle plays on the road as opposed to at home. They already lost to L.A. at home, but they were also the more desperate team. Seattle certainly played like it and it put them in a position to be able to win the game. Ultimately, the comeback attempt from Russell Wilson and Co. came up short, but they did their job and covered for us.
It looked like disaster had struck when the Rams strip sacked Wilson, recovered, and then scored a few players later to go up by 12, but Seattle put together a really nice touchdown drive immediately after. They actually got the ball back with time to score, but weren’t able to convert. If we’ve learned anything this year, it’s bet on the Seahawks’ spread, they’ve been great against it. Total win: $7.60.
WIN: Saints-Bengals OVER 54 (-115): Saints 51, Bengals 14.
It sure helps your cause on an over when one team nearly hits the over by themselves. New Orleans was once again possessed on offense on Sunday, leading to a blowout of Cincinnati. Thankfully, each team continued scoring well into the fourth quarter, because even with the Saints’ onslaught, it seemed like scoring might stall out in the third quarter.
At this point, betting a Saints under seems crazy and we were lucky to get on this train before their over/under numbers soar against opponents with strong offenses. This rounds out a really solid week for us and makes us 1-for-1 on over/under picks this week. Total win: $7.40.
PIGGY BANK: $236.43 (18.2% return on investment)
PICK PERCENTAGE: 61.7% (29-18-3)